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- Oh my i was waiting for an update from you Morgan didn't want to bug you for one again! I'm excited for sphs, like you noticed there are barely anyone selling and it seems like a fund has been accumulating all the cheap shares. I for some reason think people in the know is already expecting good news (as corrupt as it sounds, it's the world we live in) otherwise this would have tanked along with all other biotechs.
If news is positive Morgan what would be the potential outcome? 100-200% upside? Just curious of your guess thanks again!
PS. I didn't get a chance to reply awhile back but it's great to hear you are recovering M8, i wish nothing but a prosperous and healthy outcome for you buddy
Posted via CB10
Hi slipstream89!!
Glad to hear you are still in this stock! I don't know how many own it but I thought I would reach out to them and remind them that a major news event is happening within the next few days. As for the potential, the stock has an average target range of $ 6.25 - $ 8.00 now with one analyst around $ 11.00/shr.
The news is related to a safety review of aprox. 20 patients and they are to report on aprox. 10 of them now and the balance in April. What has the market watching in this report isn't so much the safety data but the general improvement of those patients, sort of a confirmation that the Phase III was correct. The CEO would like to take this directly to the FDA and forego another Phase III study and the side data might be enough to accomplish that. The company will need more financing in Q2 of this year so this data could be the push they need to file an NDA and raise capital on the back of the strong rally in the stock.
We could drop below a buck if the news is soft or non productive towards the NDA, or, the safety data might be very strong and that alone might lead us to the NDA. I think they will replicate the Phase III study and the same will be true for the Safety data causing the CEO to suggest they go for a NDA in Q2. That kind of news will drive the stock price target much higher and this is a tiny company to begin with. I would be thrilled to get $ 7.00/shr on great news and I'll leave the rest for others.
I'm not telling new investors to get into it on Tuesday, rather if you own it and completely understand that they are a one trick pony, you are about to see some wild trading in this one soon! I have only been focused on this one so far this year as it is a trade that is ignoring the general market which is nice to have right now. Good luck!
PS. As for my health, thanks for those kind words, I'm hopefully one more surgery away now and that is exciting in of itself. I don't think Frankenstein has as many scars on his head as I do! Ha!01-17-16 09:21 AMLike 21 - OT warning.
Catching up after this nasty week ... just too busy! What happened to my PSDV? Seems new share issue has clocked the SP ... the run up was nice to see before this precipitous fall ... ouch - feel like I should get some free stock for riding out this one! . I think a chilling out of the market in general after the losses so far in 2016 is due ... further news on the Europe plans from PSDV will send it higher.
BBRY just caught in the bloodbath completely outside their fundamentals ... it will spring back quickly when the market catches its breath ... let's hope the week ahead doesn't turn into another weak ahead ...
Best to all ... thanks for the great discussion as always!
Posted via CB1001-17-16 04:07 PMLike 6 -
- Known news already but a refresh...
FORD and SYNC 3
Ford?s Sync 3 Is Prove That Going Blackberry Was The Right Move ? Motoringcrunch01-17-16 04:42 PMLike 8 - Thanks for the analysis Morgan! Would it be too bold to estimate the success of the proof of concept trial? Every opinion, board and tweet I've come across people are very optimistic. I don't want to live in the clouds so would like to get a realistic opinion, I went through their data and presentations but I have to admit, the technical stuff is out of my league as I have no clue in health care. On the share price, I don't believe they have a lot of shorts but due to the company relatively small market cap and float would it still cause some sort of squeeze if news is positive? I'd be jumping for joy if it made a jump similar to KBIO (without the fraud part )
Posted via CB1001-17-16 05:35 PMLike 5 -
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- Happy Birthday to Meeeeeee! All I want for my birthday is to see all of you all at our $100 party!!!
BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!01-18-16 12:14 AMLike 17 -
- 01-18-16 12:39 AMLike 8
- Thanks for the analysis Morgan! Would it be too bold to estimate the success of the proof of concept trial? Every opinion, board and tweet I've come across people are very optimistic. I don't want to live in the clouds so would like to get a realistic opinion, I went through their data and presentations but I have to admit, the technical stuff is out of my league as I have no clue in health care. On the share price, I don't believe they have a lot of shorts but due to the company relatively small market cap and float would it still cause some sort of squeeze if news is positive? I'd be jumping for joy if it made a jump similar to KBIO (without the fraud part )
Posted via CB1001-18-16 01:13 AMLike 5 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorHow I feel today ...
We've been through this many times already and moreover, this was related to BBRY performance when we now see a huge market contraction. Hope Chen team is jumping on the occasion to buy back cheap and dry the available "rent-able" (short) fleet. We might see some pretty numbers on next ER as I believe market contraction will have nothing but moderate effect on devices and software sales, even in the enterprise market. Buying now with the US$ going down is another positive lever, I wish I had some more cash available ...
So, just relax and look away ; IMHO there's nothing I can do now besides spending too much money for transaction fees going in and out and add the risk to the pain.
Have a great week folks !
SF01-18-16 02:19 AMLike 11 - OT from the Related Technologies file:
Xiaomi sold more than 70 million smartphones in 2015, missing 80 million target | ZDNet
"Chinese smartphone makers saw huge success in 2015. Huawei beat Xiaomi for worldwide shipments, but it's clear both are doing quite well. It was estimated that 1.16 billion Android devices would be shipped in 2015. That means Huawei shipped nearly 10 percent while Xiaomi was at about 6 percent of all Android smartphones."01-18-16 07:19 AMLike 7 -
- This will push Q4 operating expenses way down:
Half way through the quarter and the Canadian dollar is $0.68 US.
Posted via CB1001-18-16 07:49 AMLike 13 - Athoc news, link for Bacon Munchers post.
http://crackberry.com/department-vet...communications
Posted via my BlackBerry Passport01-18-16 07:54 AMLike 11 -
- Thanks for the analysis Morgan! Would it be too bold to estimate the success of the proof of concept trial? Every opinion, board and tweet I've come across people are very optimistic. I don't want to live in the clouds so would like to get a realistic opinion, I went through their data and presentations but I have to admit, the technical stuff is out of my league as I have no clue in health care. On the share price, I don't believe they have a lot of shorts but due to the company relatively small market cap and float would it still cause some sort of squeeze if news is positive? I'd be jumping for joy if it made a jump similar to KBIO (without the fraud part )
Posted via CB10
You know I hate to speculate as to where this one can go but I will make a few comments here. This is a tiny market cap for a company that is debt free with 40% of their cap in cash. The upside is huge just to get them on par with other biotechs that are being trashed by this market. The safety study is likely to produce enough positive data to go forward with a standard Phase IIIB study. SPHS doesn't have enough cash to do that study today, it needs to tap the market to get to that milestone. The excitement exists in the Safety data as it will also point to a confirmation of the Phase III conclusion. That's what is exciting about this next report, 10 patients will also be examined for their update of the treatment which is a backhanded way of doing that second Phase IIIB study. If that data and the balance of the patients show a very favorable uptake, and the safety profile is normal given the risk/benefits, the CEO will try to forgo a second Phase III study and meet with the FDA to fast track the treatment.
This is where the upside comes from, how do you place a value on a company like that? PSDV is valued at $ 122 MM for a niche player in their healthcare sector (they are dirt cheap at that level). SPHS would be valued in a Tier 1 sector with broad appeal and advancing their treatment while their competition are failing. As more companies fail, their street value goes up. It is so easy to see them trade in the $ 6.00 - $ 8.00 area if there is a chance to go to the FDA this year, but if it is more likely that they can succeed with a fast tracked NDA, the stock is worth 3 times more than that and growing as the treatment gets closer to a formal launch. This is one risky venture, don't own it if you aren't prepared to lose 50% on the news as is the case in so many of this micro trades. The upside is huge if they deliver and we are going up against a simple Safety study with the Phase III already in the bag. The CEO has done the impossible and got us to a completed Phase III when everyone thought he was crazy. I personally wanted him to stop the study as soon as he saw a positive correlation in the data and save the cash but he spent like a wild-man and pulled off a miracle. I mentioned earlier that I want $ 7.00 out of the trade so that I can take that money and buy a depressed stock and double it from there. So please be careful, know that the data could be normal, not significant but enough to go for the second Phase IIIB and that will require the selling of shares and a wait of 1 1/2 years to completion. This is a risky study as it will confirm a normal course of action for the company or an accelerated form of action if the data hints of a fast tracking scenario. Good luck!01-18-16 10:10 AMLike 11 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorAre we off the trade today ? Can't see nothing but Jan. 14 quote on Nasdaq web site ...01-18-16 10:11 AMLike 0
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- 01-18-16 10:24 AMLike 4
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