View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. masterful's Avatar
    Welcome back Morgan

    Posted via my PRIV
    01-11-16 02:23 PM
  2. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Woh. End of day bounce for the market? IBB retook support (so far), a bunch of bio's followed suit, and BBRY crossed over the 50 on the 3 minute for the first time today after riding it down like a bloody water slide. Hopefully this can hold.

    Edit - almost everything is bouncing in step..... almost everything I'm looking at anyway

    Posted via CB10
    01-11-16 02:31 PM
  3. bigbadben10's Avatar
    I never understand why folks get so twisted when we are in this type of market. These times are ideal for some amazing prices for so many depressed stocks. I really don't care that my portfolio is in the red, substantially on a few I might add. It's all going to come back eventually and we will be golden... IF you have spare cash you can also average down too. Just love this market. Always have spare cash just in case!

    ECA is at stupid prices. Any bounce in the oil price will send it back to well over $10. Patience my friends and relax. Go have a cuppa tea!
    01-11-16 03:09 PM
  4. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I never understand why folks get so twisted when we are in this type of market. These times are ideal for some amazing prices for so many depressed stocks. I really don't care that my portfolio is in the red, substantially on a few I might add. It's all going to come back eventually and we will be golden... IF you have spare cash you can also average down too. Just love this market. Always have spare cash just in case!

    ECA is at stupid prices. Any bounce in the oil price will send it back to well over $10. Patience my friends and relax. Go have a cuppa tea!
    Tea=beer? Cheers Ben!


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20160111_161454.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    01-11-16 03:17 PM
  5. rytwjyx's Avatar
    IF you have spare cash you can also average down too.
    This is exactly the reason I'm sad... the stocks are dirt cheap and there's no cash to buy more
    CDM76 and Superfly_FR like this.
    01-11-16 03:20 PM
  6. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Tea=beer? Cheers Ben!


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    Posted via CB10
    That too Chris!
    01-11-16 03:22 PM
  7. snaponsly's Avatar
    I never understand why folks get so twisted when we are in this type of market. These times are ideal for some amazing prices for so many depressed stocks. I really don't care that my portfolio is in the red, substantially on a few I might add. It's all going to come back eventually and we will be golden... IF you have spare cash you can also average down too. Just love this market. Always have spare cash just in case!

    ECA is at stupid prices. Any bounce in the oil price will send it back to well over $10. Patience my friends and relax. Go have a cuppa tea!
    If you play it right, keep cash on hand, not over leveraged, it's all good..... but for many, those margin calls came quickly and were forced out... As recommended by others here, I usually sell when we hit RSI70 on most stocks, and that proved right once again for BBRY and others....
    I keep a well diversified Vanguard ETF portfolio in another brokerage that I haven't touched in a few years and I'm still up 11% in my Global (VXC) stocks so even with China down that much, no panic here...
    I haven't pulled the trigger on anything today but definitely eyeing ECA and BBRY.... curious to see what the rest of the week will bring.....
    3MIKE and cjcampbell like this.
    01-11-16 03:42 PM
  8. bbjdog's Avatar
    David Bowie, your music will live on!



    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    01-11-16 04:03 PM
  9. sidhuk's Avatar
    01-11-16 04:19 PM
  10. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    OT....hair got "Trumped"

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-32463.jpg  
    bbjdog, morganplus8, 3MIKE and 2 others like this.
    01-11-16 04:34 PM
  11. b121's Avatar
    Does bbry still have approval for the buybacks? Can they put all that capital to work at these levels?

    Posted via CB10 (7250 -> 8703e -> 9530 -> 9550 -> 9650 -> 9930 -> PlayBook -> Z10 -> Z30 -> Classic)
    01-11-16 05:05 PM
  12. finecognac's Avatar
    IF you have spare cash you can also average down too. Just love this market.
    Cash? What cash?
    01-11-16 05:10 PM
  13. Corbu's Avatar
    01-11-16 05:13 PM
  14. Corbu's Avatar
    01-11-16 05:13 PM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    What would we do without our dear friend?

    James E. Faucette

    BlackBerry Ltd

    January 11, 2016 9:45 PM GMT

    Still Cautious on Software

    Industry View: Cautious
    Stock Rating: Equal-weight
    Price Target: $7.00

    We lower our software estimates after our meeting with management at CES. We think the underlying market opportunities of acquired software pieces range from modest to challenged.

    Post-earnings commentary from management warrants review of estimates and current valuation. As we highlighted in our CES Wrap Up, John Chen kicked off his CES press conference by warning that the investment community may have become overly optimistic on the February quarter's software revenue after November quarter results. While management highlighted 43% Y/Y organic software revenue growth on the last earnings call, it excludes the impact of declining revenue from service and support on legacy software products. Inclusive of legacy products and the full run rate of recently acquired assets (likely modest growth, see Exhibit 1 for breakdown and estimates growth rates), we think our previous software revenue estimates were too optimistic. We note that BlackBerry has acquired most of its recent software assets for 2-3x revenue, yet the market seems to be giving them credit for ~4x revenue; in our view, the company has to demonstrate synergies and sustained growth with its acquired revenues to justify its current valuation.

    MDM market continues to see pricing pressure. Our checks to date yield much of the same commentary we have published since 1H15; that MDM licenses continue to be offered at significant discounts as CIOs demand better cost savings in their BYOD programs and large enterprise software providers such as VMware, Microsoft and SAP offer device management features in bundled solutions for little to no incremental cost. While management cited strong organic growth, contributions from QNX and Certicom / Paratek suggest that BES12 revenue remains low in absolute dollar terms (see Exhibit 1). Considering the competitive landscape and the recent challenges facing larger standalone peers such as MobileIron (MSe: $163mm in revenue in 2016, growing at 11% Y/Y) and Good Technology, we continue to believe the likely market opportunity for BES12 is rather limited.

    Much ado about connected cars, but how much goes to QNX? We estimate that QNX revenue is running above $100mm per year and growing as automobile OEMs continue to adopt the Real-Time Operating System (RTOS) for their connected car features. But we note that there are many free, open-source versions of RTOS, and previous surveys conducted by EE Times highlight respondents’ tendencies to use open-source versions without commercial support and without royalty payments. While QNX development and support undoubtedly offer many benefits to automobile OEMs, we think the preference for open-source and the availability of many substitutes ultimately caps the potential for RTOS to capture a larger share of the IoT value chain vs. the connected car software above and the electronic components below. We think the overall embedded OS market is growing at about 5% per year and therefore 10% growth on the back of new product initiatives may prove difficult to sustain long term.

    Lowering estimates on management commentary and market opportunities. Our 4Q16 and FY17 software revenues are now $130mm and $573mm (from $154mm and $646mm respectively), contemplating more modest growth opportunities absent additional acquisitions. As a result, our total 4Q16 and FY17 revenue and EPS are now $535mm / ($0.13) and $1.93bn / ($0.68) (from $558mm / ($0.11) and $2.00bn / ($0.63)) respectively.

    Remain EW with a $7PT, but continuation of devices business warrants additional caution. Our $7 PT is 4-5x our forecast for a ~$600mm/yr software and messaging business and ~$2.50/share in net cash. In our view, the flexibility of the balance sheet, the opportunity to cut costs further both in the core business and acquired assets, and the ability to generate cash at reduced revenue levels outweighs poor business fundamentals for the time being, leaving us EW. However, we note that management’s plan to develop an additional Android handset may reduce the ability to improve net cash position through cost cutting. The inability to organically grow software vs. SAF declines and the continued willingness to give runway to the hardware business likely add risk to our price target.
    01-11-16 05:39 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    01-11-16 05:44 PM
  17. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Mr Faucette has zero principals.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 01-12-16 at 03:01 AM. Reason: Don't skirt the filters please ! :)
    01-11-16 05:58 PM
  18. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    My all time favorite Faucette pic...

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-28272.jpg  
    01-11-16 06:04 PM
  19. bbjdog's Avatar
    Before reading the James what your face report, my mind had nothing in it. After I finished the report it was still empty, no thoughts, nothing at all. How can I read something and get nothing from it? I also see he keeps on beating the same issue over and over and over.



    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    01-11-16 06:43 PM
  20. bungaboy's Avatar
    My all time favorite Faucette pic...

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

    Looks vaguely familiar. From the archives.
    01-11-16 06:43 PM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    Your accountant uncle who still wears his phone in a holster on his hip loves BlackBerry Messenger.
    Though I am an uncle, I am not an accountant, I don't wear my phone in a holster on my hip and I still love BBM.

    What a condescending, ill-informed and caricatural point of view from Ms. Breen.
    bungaboy, rarsen, bbjdog and 9 others like this.
    01-11-16 06:48 PM
  22. BanffMoose's Avatar
    What would we do without our dear friend?

    James E. Faucette
    BlackBerry Ltd
    January 11, 2016 9:45 PM GMT

    Lowering estimates on management commentary and market opportunities. Our 4Q16 and FY17 software revenues are now $130mm and $573mm (from $154mm and $646mm respectively), contemplating more modest growth opportunities absent additional acquisitions. As a result, our total 4Q16 and FY17 revenue and EPS are now $535mm / ($0.13) and $1.93bn / ($0.68) (from $558mm / ($0.11) and $2.00bn / ($0.63)) respectively.

    Remain EW with a $7PT, but continuation of devices business warrants additional caution. Our $7 PT is 4-5x our forecast for a ~$600mm/yr software and messaging business and ~$2.50/share in net cash. In our view, the flexibility of the balance sheet, the opportunity to cut costs further both in the core business and acquired assets, and the ability to generate cash at reduced revenue levels outweighs poor business fundamentals for the time being, leaving us EW. However, we note that managements plan to develop an additional Android handset may reduce the ability to improve net cash position through cost cutting. The inability to organically grow software vs. SAF declines and the continued willingness to give runway to the hardware business likely add risk to our price target.
    Wasn't BlackBerry trying to achieve double the FYE2015 income and have $500M of total revenue (hardware and software) for FYE2016, which ends next month? Or was it, as Faucette implies, $500M of only software revenue?

    Is Faucette laying the groundwork for his next attack by raising his forecasted revenues to $600M? I was remiss and didn't listen to the last 1.5 ER conference calls so I only had the $500M target in my head. My bad, I know.
    01-11-16 06:53 PM
  23. finecognac's Avatar
    I wonder how many biotech are selling below cash after this beating?
    01-11-16 08:07 PM
  24. chrysaurora's Avatar
    01-12-16 12:52 AM
  25. Christophe Piquemal's Avatar
    hum, is it a OYSTER PERPETUAL that I see?



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    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR and cjcampbell like this.
    01-12-16 02:26 AM
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