View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. W Hoa's Avatar
    Nice to see a positive response to the ER. Very high volume today (45M Nasdaq, 8M TSE). So I haven't listened to or read the CC, but I've gathered that Chen expects total revs to be stable from Q3 to Q4, whereas he has said before to expect rev growth in Q4. I'm wondering whether he is being excessively cautious or if there are concerns somewhere. So correct me if I'm wrong ....
    To quote Chen:

    "Our new PRIV device has been well received since its launch in November, and we are expanding distribution to additional carriers around the world in the next several quarters. BlackBerry has a solid financial foundation, and we are executing well. To sustain our current direction, we are stepping up investments to drive continued software growth and the additional PRIV launches. I anticipate this will result in sequential revenue growth in our software, hardware and messaging businesses in Q4".

    Looking behind the numbers: BlackBerry's on the right track | CrackBerry.com
    12-18-15 07:02 PM
  2. bungaboy's Avatar
    Miss Chris's Financial analysis.....

    Posted via CB10
    I prefer Miss Amber's.
    Corbu, 3MIKE, La Emperor and 3 others like this.
    12-18-15 07:39 PM
  3. peteberry12's Avatar
    To quote Chen:

    "Our new PRIV device has been well received since its launch in November, and we are expanding distribution to additional carriers around the world in the next several quarters. BlackBerry has a solid financial foundation, and we are executing well. To sustain our current direction, we are stepping up investments to drive continued software growth and the additional PRIV launches. I anticipate this will result in sequential revenue growth in our software, hardware and messaging businesses in Q4".

    Looking behind the numbers: BlackBerry's on the right track | CrackBerry.com
    Right. I should have been a little more clear. I had also seen that they project growth in software and hardware divisions, which is why I was curious why I heard Chen say in an interview that total revenue will be stable between Q3 and Q4. The point I was trying to make is that if the forecasted decreases come via non-recurring licensing software revenue of about 50M and SAF decrease of 30M (give or take), that's about 80M that would have to be replaced by growth in software and hardware to have the same rev as Q3 and obviously exceeding that would be total revenue growth. And given moderate software growth in BES/AtHoc/WatchDox and the inclusion of a full quarter of Good revs + way more Priv availability, I feel like it is so cautious to not come out and say we will likely have total revenue growth in Q4.

    Just to be clear, I believe that there will be a sizable increase in revenue in Q4 .

    I'm assuming Chen is being very conservative, but was wondering if anyone else had a different take.
    Last edited by peteberry12; 12-18-15 at 08:05 PM.
    3MIKE, La Emperor and spiller like this.
    12-18-15 07:54 PM
  4. peteberry12's Avatar
    As we did last time, we will have a call early next week with BBRY, any questions you want asked, please respond here. Please use the quote function.


    Posted via CB10
    Awesome. I look forward to you reporting back on that. If it doesn't come up, I'd love to hear a little more about the overall strategy/goals for the Priv, including from a marketing and manufacturing standpoint in the coming months (ie. will there be a change relative to what we've seen thus far) and just sort of the overall tone towards the hardware division. Much appreciated!
    12-18-15 07:59 PM
  5. bbjdog's Avatar
    Today has been a good day for BlackBerry investors. I am watching a hockey game between Detroit and Vancouver on my TV, when they show a man and woman (looked like a Dad and his Daughter) looking at a cell phone or taking a selfie. The phone was a BlackBerry Priv. Nice to see!!

    Cheers!!

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Corbu, Andy_bb_king, 3MIKE and 7 others like this.
    12-18-15 08:09 PM
  6. Corbu's Avatar
    Right. I should have been a little more clear. I had also seen that they project growth in software and hardware divisions, which is why I was curious why I heard Chen say in an interview that total revenue will be stable between Q3 and Q4. The point I was trying to make is that if the forecasted decreases come via non-recurring licensing software revenue of about 50M and SAF decrease of 30M (give or take), that's about 80M that would have to be replaced by growth in software and hardware to have the same rev as Q3 and obviously exceeding that would be total revenue growth. And given moderate software growth in BES/AtHoc/WatchDox and the inclusion of a full quarter of Good revs + way more Priv availability, I feel like it is so cautious to not come out and say we will likely have total revenue growth in Q4.

    Just to be clear, I believe that there will be a sizable increase in revenue in Q4 .

    I'm assuming Chen is being very conservative, but was wondering if anyone else had a different take.
    Just curious, peteberry12. Are you referring to what JC said between 5:05 and 5:25 in his interview with Amber?
    BlackBerry loss less than expected, sales top forecasts - BNN News
    3MIKE, bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    12-18-15 08:30 PM
  7. peteberry12's Avatar
    Just curious, peteberry12. Are you referring to what JC said between 5:05 and 5:25 in his interview with Amber?
    BlackBerry loss less than expected, sales top forecasts - BNN News
    Yes, that was the one I saw.

    EDIT: After re-watching, now it sounds like he was talking about software growth? Now I'm just confused.
    12-18-15 08:37 PM
  8. Corbu's Avatar
    Yes, that was the one I saw.

    EDIT: After re-watching, now it sounds like he was talking about software growth? Now I'm just confused.
    Well, not quite sure myself, tbh. However, in context, the 14% sequentail increase he is referring to is total revenue. So, presumabley, he is saying that Q4 should be flat as compared to Q3 and then, we should should expect a gradual uptake in revenue. My interpretation, fwiw!

    From the EC:

    The total revenue was $557 million. That's up 14% sequentially over Q2. Total software and services revenue was $162 million. That's up 183% year-over-year and up 119% sequentially over Q2. Organic software license growth was very strong, came in 43% growth year-over-year.
    12-18-15 08:55 PM
  9. masterful's Avatar
    Either way you have to be a bit cautious and conservatives when it comes to this game. If you give a higher guidance then the analysts will rise their estimate.
    So far I like what JC is doing. When all guns fire at all cylinders with full blast then will see.
    The only thing I have is why did they purchase so little share? Are they really going to pick up 26millions shares?

    #BBFactCheck
    bbjdog, peteberry12, CDM76 and 3 others like this.
    12-18-15 09:03 PM
  10. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Well, not quite sure myself, tbh. However, in context, the 14% sequentail increase he is referring to is total revenue. So, presumabley, he is saying that Q4 should be flat as compared to Q3 and then, we should should expect a gradual uptake in revenue. My interpretation, fwiw!

    From the EC:
    That's how I understood it too. Next Q - same revenue as this time. EPS might be slightly lower or higher (if they cut even more opex). But flat as such.

    The Q after guidance is that we'd see increased revenue/EPS.

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu, peteberry12, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    12-18-15 09:11 PM
  11. peteberry12's Avatar
    Either way you have to be a bit cautious and conservatives when it comes to this game. If you give a higher guidance then the analysts will rise their estimate.
    So far I like what JC is doing. When all guns fire at all cylinders with full blast then will see.
    The only thing I have is why did they purchase so little share? Are they really going to pick up 26millions shares?

    #BBFactCheck
    Good point. I just personally feel that revenue will increase sequentially, but certainly there's nothing guaranteed. I just noticed him saying it since he has previously stated that it would increase Q3 and Q4. Anyway, all in all, a very positive day today. Hoping we continue into next week with the same sentiment. Btw, MOBL sitting at 315M mkt cap today. I just have this nagging feeling that this might be scooped up some time in 2016 by BB - pure speculation to be sure. Cheers guys
    Corbu, 3MIKE, CDM76 and 2 others like this.
    12-18-15 09:32 PM
  12. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Good point. I just personally feel that revenue will increase sequentially, but certainly there's nothing guaranteed. I just noticed him saying it since he has previously stated that it would increase Q3 and Q4. Anyway, all in all, a very positive day today. Hoping we continue into next week with the same sentiment. Btw, MOBL sitting at 315M mkt cap today. I just have this nagging feeling that this might be scooped up some time in 2016 by BB - pure speculation to be sure. Cheers guys
    I think Faucette is baiting them. That's what he wants BlackBerry to do - to buy Mobile Iron. In his note today, in his bull case, he did say - if BlackBerry acquires another EMM vendor or something along those lines. Basically, implying if BlackBerry buys out Mobile Iron.

    Because whom else is left in this space? BlackBerry can't buy Microsoft, Citrix, Vmware etc.


    Perhaps Fauctte is saying - if you buy Mobile Iron, I'll turn bullish on the stock. I'll give you positive press. ****n *******. I hope this never happens and MI simply loses customers to BlackBerry and becomes worthless on its own.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-15 09:35 PM
  13. spiller's Avatar
    That's how I understood it too. Next Q - same revenue as this time. EPS might be slightly lower or higher (if they cut even more opex). But flat as such.

    The Q after guidance is that we'd see increased revenue/EPS.

    Posted via CB10
    They confirmed there will be 40M coming off the books for fixed hardware licensing (I believe) - which they also confirmed COULD help them get to 'hardware break-even / profit'. Even if revenue is the same this would help quite a bit with cost reduction.
    12-18-15 10:22 PM
  14. peteberry12's Avatar
    I think Faucette is baiting them. That's what he wants BlackBerry to do - to buy Mobile Iron. In his note today, in his bull case, he did say - if BlackBerry acquires another EMM vendor or something along those lines. Basically, implying if BlackBerry buys out Mobile Iron.

    Because whom else is left in this space? BlackBerry can't buy Microsoft, Citrix, Vmware etc.


    Perhaps Fauctte is saying - if you buy Mobile Iron, I'll turn bullish on the stock. I'll give you positive press. ****n *******. I hope this never happens and MI simply loses customers to BlackBerry and becomes worthless on its own.

    Posted via CB10
    Haha I did notice that as well while quickly scanning his report. I surely share your sentiment in terms of just winning their customers over time, but it would certainly expedite the process. On the other hand, maybe a combination of the two is ideal. That is to cut into their business, thus decreasing their value and then swoop in and buy them at a discount. Will be interesting to see, because as you noted, MOBL is the largest pure play in EMM remaining.
    12-18-15 10:51 PM
  15. bigbbrybeliever's Avatar
    Right. I should have been a little more clear. I had also seen that they project growth in software and hardware divisions, which is why I was curious why I heard Chen say in an interview that total revenue will be stable between Q3 and Q4. The point I was trying to make is that if the forecasted decreases come via non-recurring licensing software revenue of about 50M and SAF decrease of 30M (give or take), that's about 80M that would have to be replaced by growth in software and hardware to have the same rev as Q3 and obviously exceeding that would be total revenue growth. And given moderate software growth in BES/AtHoc/WatchDox and the inclusion of a full quarter of Good revs + way more Priv availability, I feel like it is so cautious to not come out and say we will likely have total revenue growth in Q4.

    Just to be clear, I believe that there will be a sizable increase in revenue in Q4 .

    I'm assuming Chen is being very conservative, but was wondering if anyone else had a different take.
    You are right on the point.
    12-18-15 11:45 PM
  16. bigbbrybeliever's Avatar
    Haha I did notice that as well while quickly scanning his report. I surely share your sentiment in terms of just winning their customers over time, but it would certainly expedite the process. On the other hand, maybe a combination of the two is ideal. That is to cut into their business, thus decreasing their value and then swoop in and buy them at a discount. Will be interesting to see, because as you noted, MOBL is the largest pure play in EMM remaining.
    The key word is "buy them at DEEP discount" such as at $1 per share.
    12-18-15 11:48 PM
  17. masterful's Avatar
    They confirmed there will be 40M coming off the books for fixed hardware licensing (I believe) - which they also confirmed COULD help them get to 'hardware break-even / profit'. Even if revenue is the same this would help quite a bit with cost reduction.
    Oh, I miss that part about hardware licensing. What could this be? I'm curious. If anything it's Sammy

    #BBFactCheck
    12-19-15 06:14 AM
  18. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    12-19-15 06:40 AM
  19. bungaboy's Avatar
    December 18, 2015
    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    BlackBerry Reports 43 Percent Year-over-Year Organic Growth in Software License Revenue for the Fiscal 2016 Third Quarter
    Total software and services revenue grows 183 percent year over year

    http://press.blackberry.com/content/...ec_17_2015.pdf
    Corbu, bbjdog, foxdog0007 and 7 others like this.
    12-19-15 08:02 AM
  20. bspence87's Avatar
    The key word is "buy them at DEEP discount" such as at $1 per share.
    Investors of MobileIron would never let that happening.
    12-19-15 08:59 AM
  21. jake simmons3's Avatar
    Hey guys,

    Have not posted in awhile but I still own a huge block of shares and very pleased with this last qtr. I think this is the real turn around qtr and we will start to see the remaining shorts exit. Hope all is well

    Posted via CB10
    sidhuk, bbjdog, rarsen and 6 others like this.
    12-19-15 09:17 AM
  22. spiller's Avatar
    That's how I understood it too. Next Q - same revenue as this time. EPS might be slightly lower or higher (if they cut even more opex). But flat as such.

    The Q after guidance is that we'd see increased revenue/EPS.

    Posted via CB10
    Revenue will be up. They just don't know how much yet as they haven't gauged Europe Priv demand. And do they have the scale to make as many units and they could sell. It could be up a bit...or it could be up a lot. I'm sure they know the 'max' is based on the number of units they can make.


    Now we need to deal with the decline in SAF. That will be offset by software. High margin SAF loss offset by high margin software gain. Wipe.

    They have 40M hardware IP expense going away. That's substantial. Already on flat rev EPS is flying positive.

    My Q4 forecast: hardware rev 280M (conservative IMO). (+25ish% Q/Q). Rev 615M. Reduced expense by 40M from IP (going forward as well). Net swing of 100M+. Who can calculate EPS? Huge EPS beat +.13c? . Hardware unit profitable and looking to stay long term. Customers feel ok to buy BlackBerry device again. Feeds device acceptance and purchases up. Needs Q1/17 to confirm trends/momentum.

    Anything in here not make sense?

    Posted via CB10
    12-19-15 09:20 AM
  23. spiller's Avatar
    Oh, I miss that part about hardware licensing. What could this be? I'm curious. If anything it's Sammy

    #BBFactCheck
    I think it's fixed cost legacy contracts for device IP from early bb10 days when they were expected to sell millions of units. Someone on the board will know better than me

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu likes this.
    12-19-15 09:24 AM
  24. spiller's Avatar
    Damn they are reporting Q4 April 1st. Did Chen plan this? No ANALysts it is not a joke. BlackBerry is back. You were way off your forecasts. Rocket ignition.

    I say damn because now I need to roll my March calls over to April to catch this spaceship.

    Posted via CB10
    12-19-15 09:29 AM
  25. rarsen's Avatar
    OT from the Related Technologies file:

    VMWare Backs Out Of Virtustream Joint Venture With EMC - NASDAQ.com
    "Will not go ahead with the formation of a joint venture that will combine its cloud services business with that of its parent company EMC Corp, as previously announced by EMC and VMware on October 20, 2015. EMC has been under shareholder pressure after activist hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. took a nearly 2 percent stake in the company last year and urged it to spin off VMware. EMC holds 80 percent of VMware, which has a market capitalization of $34 billion.
    12-19-15 10:06 AM
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