View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. spiller's Avatar
    I think people here will be a little surprised by handset numbers if they're expecting even or higher from last quarter. Which doesn't make sense since it should be common knowledge that device sales drop off quite steeply after launch and continue to slide.
    The Passport/Classic are quite old at this point. Phones don't suddenly sell an extra 200k (or roughly 20% more) at one year old versus six months old. It's quite the opposite.

    As for Revenue. With handsets still a large percentage of their revenue you should know what will happen given device sales.
    If you look below there is no coincidence that Rev and handset numbers dropped by an close % each.
    It hasn't always been the case as in Q4 14 - Q1 15 revs dropped 660m to 658m, devices dropped 1.3m to 1.1m. But this was just one very rare case out of several quarters not to follow the above.


    Q1 Quarter End: May 30, 2015 Reporting Date: June 23, 2015
    Revs 658m
    1.1m Device Sales

    Q2 Quarter End: August 29, 2015 Reporting Date: September 25, 2015
    Revs 491m (25.38% decrease)
    800k Device Sales (27.27% decrease)

    Q3 Quarter End: November 28, 2015 Reporting Date: December 18, 2015
    Passport/Classic are a year old during this period. Priv has had almost a month at market.

    I would estimate that device sales continue to fall by around 20% like they have quite steadily for some time. 600-700k.
    Revs are harder to predict but just running some numbers would show a 13% fall average the last three quarters (One of those being a prime quarter during Passport/Classic launch). Which if it continues would make rev 427m. (I'm not saying that's what it will be. My predictions of revs are simplified to "better or worse than last quarter, better or worse than what the markets expect")
    One thing that might help with sales are BB10 customers are corps and government. They have to spend their budgets by end of year. Although usually bundles of hardware would be budgeted, this mentality might help. Plus all of the laggards getting BES12 running before commitments to new BB10 hardware in the September quarter. Who knows. Just speculating.
    12-16-15 09:11 AM
  2. Christophe Piquemal's Avatar
    le produit BlackBerry PRIV by BlackBerry noir est disponible sur sosh.fr
    BlackBerry PRIV by BlackBerry noir

    Bonjour,

    Suite votre demande d’alerte,
    nous vous informons que le produit suivant BlackBerry PRIV by BlackBerry noir
    est disponible sur sosh.fr

    Vous pouvez ds maintenant le commander sur la boutique Sosh mobile > BlackBerry PRIV by BlackBerry noir

    Merci de votre confiance,
    L'quipe Sosh



    Now in stock on Orange / Sosh in France, without any announce by Blackberry. Unusual.
    W Hoa, morganplus8, Corbu and 8 others like this.
    12-16-15 09:48 AM
  3. helopilot06's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20151216_105754.png

    Let's keep the flow going! Testing $8 again and trying to stay above it.

    Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!
    12-16-15 09:58 AM
  4. Christophe Piquemal's Avatar
    It's a shame we didn't had the last update (without Android security patch of course) before the reviews... I do not understand how Blackberry didn't made a real beta test before launching Priv; the reviews would have been excellent in every point. But now it too late...

    It was the exact same case before the Z10. We've got to learn from our past!

    It's a chance that all the tests were quite positive; but they could have been much better.

    Well; that's the past, but please Blackberry, for the next one, deliver a perfect product out of the box, not one month later!
    Mr BBRY likes this.
    12-16-15 10:09 AM
  5. Corbu's Avatar
    12-16-15 10:17 AM
  6. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I'm surprised no one else here has pointed this out. Where the h*ck is the "Thanks" button? I find myself unable to express my gratitude to the brilliant and well deserving contributors on this thread since it's gone missing. Perhaps the mods took it away because it's during the "quiet period" and they don't want us tipping off too many potential investors that BBRY is about to get skyrocket with the "inside information" that circulates in here?
    Posted with my BlackBerry Super Priv V2.0 with 49% battery life remaining at the end of a very busy day!
    Posted via Priv
    OT
    No, it's community wide.
    While I have no exact explanation of the why's, there's work in progress and the thanks/like buttons may be merged.
    Please don't ask me more, I don't have any official statement to share.
    12-16-15 10:52 AM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png

    Weird animals ... we're on the rush and yet the 1yr Est loses a quarter ...
    12-16-15 11:01 AM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I ear "BlackBerry service update again in Google play"
    (thx Usman !)
    sidhuk, lech31, Corbu and 8 others like this.
    12-16-15 11:03 AM
  9. huwit's Avatar
    Just thinking. Maybe the other fruit company needs to buy blackberry in order to obtain John Chen services. Man they better pull something big out of their pockets because now it's all going down
    12-16-15 11:43 AM
  10. masterful's Avatar
    Just thinking. Maybe the other fruit company needs to buy blackberry in order to obtain John Chen services. Man they better pull something big out of their pockets because now it's all going down
    What is going down?

    #BBFactCheck
    12-16-15 11:47 AM
  11. huwit's Avatar
    Apple watch will most likely never generate major revenue. IPhone is slowly switching into a decline phase. SP is stuck at 115. Apple is slowly approaching the same situation blackberry was looking at back in 2010. Let's see how they react.
    12-16-15 11:50 AM
  12. kadakn01's Avatar
    John Chen was in Virginia today in the morning for a scheduled event with the Northern Virginia Technology Council, see the link for some comments (like MSFT and android)
    https://twitter.com/NoVaTechCouncil/




    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by kadakn01; 12-16-15 at 01:46 PM.
    12-16-15 12:01 PM
  13. snaponsly's Avatar
    John Chen was in Virginia today in the morning for a scheduled event with the Northern Virginia Technology Council, see the link for some comments (like MSFT and android)
    https://twitter.com/NoVaTechCouncil/tweets




    Posted via CB10
    Thanks for the link.... liking the positive vibe from the comments!
    huwit, bungaboy, sidhuk and 4 others like this.
    12-16-15 12:07 PM
  14. bungaboy's Avatar
    It's a shame we didn't had the last update (without Android security patch of course) before the reviews... I do not understand how Blackberry didn't made a real beta test before launching Priv; the reviews would have been excellent in every point. But now it too late...

    It was the exact same case before the Z10. We've got to learn from our past!

    It's a chance that all the tests were quite positive; but they could have been much better.

    Well; that's the past, but please Blackberry, for the next one, deliver a perfect product out of the box, not one month later!
    Have a look at Apple and the number of "fixes" in iOS after release. Makes BB look like a Champ!
    12-16-15 12:18 PM
  15. chenageddon's Avatar
    Just thinking. Maybe the other fruit company needs to buy blackberry in order to obtain John Chen services. Man they better pull something big out of their pockets because now it's all going down
    I definitely would like to see what John Chen, a CEO who has been selling hardware for about two years and currently is selling less than 1 million handsets per quarter would be able to tell a company that sells a almost one million devices per day.
    12-16-15 12:33 PM
  16. morganplus8's Avatar
    I just have to say, BBRY is looking firm today, it is at the top of the Bollinger Bands ($ 8.08/shr) and all the trades are happening there now. We haven't seen the stock so comfortable at the highest resistance level as it is today.

    In less than one hour we get Fed news, the DOW Jones is less than ten points away from the Golden Cross of the 50-dma passing up through the 200-dma which is very bullish. All systems are a go for some positive news Friday morning. I can't wait to see where we close today and what can we do tomorrow to top this strength in BBRY? A close above $ 8.08/shr would be crazy positive on no news. Maybe we can pull AAPL up with us too?
    12-16-15 12:33 PM
  17. bbjdog's Avatar
    I definitely would like to see what John Chen, a CEO who has been selling hardware for about two years and currently is selling less than 1 million handsets per quarter would be able to tell a company that sells a almost one million devices per day.
    Please pay close attention to the spending on commercials. Two signs! A company that is selling a lot of hardware or a company in dire needs.

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    12-16-15 12:42 PM
  18. spiller's Avatar
    I just have to say, BBRY is looking firm today, it is at the top of the Bollinger Bands ($ 8.08/shr) and all the trades are happening there now. We haven't seen the stock so comfortable at the highest resistance level as it is today.

    In less than one hour we get Fed news, the DOW Jones is less than ten points away from the Golden Cross of the 50-dma passing up through the 200-dma which is very bullish. All systems are a go for some positive news Friday morning. I can't wait to see where we close today and what can we do tomorrow to top this strength in BBRY? A close above $ 8.08/shr would be crazy positive on no news. Maybe we can pull AAPL up with us too?
    Last quarter quiet period was bound $7.15-$7.65 and the low of that range right before earnings. This Q we've fluctuated $7.30-$8.23 (if you don't take closing numbers) and hopefully will be the high of that range on Thursday. We went down big last time after sitting at the low.....so I hope we go up big time this time sitting near the high. That's my forecast
    12-16-15 12:59 PM
  19. spiller's Avatar
    I just have to say, BBRY is looking firm today, it is at the top of the Bollinger Bands ($ 8.08/shr) and all the trades are happening there now. We haven't seen the stock so comfortable at the highest resistance level as it is today.

    In less than one hour we get Fed news, the DOW Jones is less than ten points away from the Golden Cross of the 50-dma passing up through the 200-dma which is very bullish. All systems are a go for some positive news Friday morning. I can't wait to see where we close today and what can we do tomorrow to top this strength in BBRY? A close above $ 8.08/shr would be crazy positive on no news. Maybe we can pull AAPL up with us too?
    Are we going to see a repeat of last week....once it got through $8.08 resistance it exploded up to $8.23.....and then finish sub $7.90? I think today it closes above $8. Hopefully above $8.08
    12-16-15 01:06 PM
  20. early2bed's Avatar
    For real-time participates, TWIT.tv's Leo Laporte just got his Priv and is talking about it before Windows Weekly starts.
    12-16-15 01:11 PM
  21. W Hoa's Avatar
    OT and security related

    MacKeeper anti-virus company is making headlines today for its lax security that exposed the database of 13 Million Mac users' records including names, email addresses, usernames, password hashes, IP addresses, phone numbers, and system information.
    13 Million MacKeeper Users Hacked 21 GB of Data Exposed - The Hacker News
    12-16-15 01:12 PM
  22. W Hoa's Avatar
    Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um this morning writes that because of cessation of royalties BlackBerry must pay, profit is set to beat this quarter.

    BBRY reports earnings on December 18 pre-market. While the focus is likely to be on software revenue and hardware unit trajectory, we believe the roll off of $40MM of fixed royalty payments starting in FQ4 and $60MM in the quarters beyond will give a boost to hardware gross profits. While we believe this will not get the hardware business out of operating losses, we believe it could nonetheless lift the company into sustainable non-GAAP EPS in FQ4 and beyond, all else equal. Consequently, we are raising our F16E loss per share to $0.26 from $0.36 and FY17E EPS to $0.07 from a loss per share of $0.17. Note that excluding the roll off of fixed payments, our forecast implies hardware gross profit losses. For FQ3, we raise our EPS to -$0.10 from -$0.16 (Street: -$0.15) on the back of Priv handset channel fill (higher ASP and margin though low unit volumes).
    BlackBerry Set to Beat FYQ3 Estimates, Says Wells; Priv May Help - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
    bbjdog, morganplus8, Corbu and 9 others like this.
    12-16-15 01:19 PM
  23. spiller's Avatar
    Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um this morning writes that because of cessation of royalties BlackBerry must pay, profit is set to beat this quarter.



    BlackBerry Set to Beat FYQ3 Estimates, Says Wells; Priv May Help - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
    How does channel fill impact EPS positively if they only count sell through (after return period) not sell in?
    12-16-15 01:28 PM
  24. 3MIKE's Avatar
    Congratulations cj with SUNE I'm jealous!!
    12-16-15 01:28 PM
  25. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    Anyone owns SCTY around here? Good day on account of last night's Congress deal, I understand.
    12-16-15 01:31 PM
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