View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. spiller's Avatar
    Disregard my last post about Eric Johnson, (I quickly copied and pasted without really looking at it!)
    It may be an attempt to stop the rally, OK a bit of a conspiracy theory here, but why else would the WSJ pick up a 11 month old story!

    Posted via CB10
    They rehash negative BBRY news all the time...they get paid to spread FUD. No integrity.
    11-24-15 03:18 PM
  2. kadakn01's Avatar
    Also to clarify, although Eric Johnson did leave this week, he had been replaced internally by John Sims who took over his role in December 2014 after earnings, only to be replaced this year by Carl Weiss! Eric was demoted to another position within Enterprise (EVP Global Enterprise Sales)
    Still the way the WSJ reported on it, they made it sound worse than it really is and did not mention that he was demoted in December 2014
    11-24-15 03:25 PM
  3. cjcampbell's Avatar
    So, how bout that KBIO. From a low of $0.44 on Monday of last week, to a high of $45.82 yesterday, to a close at $18.40 today. There was some serious money made, and lost, on both sides of that trade.
    bungaboy, 3MIKE, kadakn01 and 9 others like this.
    11-24-15 04:22 PM
  4. Corbu's Avatar
    11-24-15 05:30 PM
  5. Corbu's Avatar
    11-24-15 05:46 PM
  6. cjcampbell's Avatar
    OT - Morgan... Hate to ask you but what are your thoughts on XON? Seems like they are up to some interesting stuff spanning multiple applications.
    sidhuk likes this.
    11-24-15 05:49 PM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    Why BlackBerry?s Android is Best for Security and Privacy | Inside BlackBerry
    David Kleidermacher

    PRIV initially shipped with Android Lollipop (L) 5.1.1. Google has released Android 6 Marshmallow (M) to device makers, and BlackBerry is in the process of integrating the new release. Marshmallow adds a number of security enhancements.
    11-24-15 06:27 PM
  8. bbjdog's Avatar
    Corbu you beat me to it! Cheers!

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    La Emperor, sidhuk and Corbu like this.
    11-24-15 06:28 PM
  9. Corbu's Avatar
    Cheers, mate!
    bbjdog likes this.
    11-24-15 06:30 PM
  10. ZayDub's Avatar
    So, how bout that KBIO. From a low of $0.44 on Monday of last week, to a high of $45.82 yesterday, to a close at $18.40 today. There was some serious money made, and lost, on both sides of that trade.
    And a lot of unrealized gains lol ....im still practically at breakeven on it. Only down $100. We'll see what happens in the next month or so....i think it was prob just a bunch of profit taking before the holiday. I'm sure this play will be news driven for a while. It's still up significantly (for now) from where it was prior to the news

    BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!
    cjcampbell, 3MIKE, gedob and 1 others like this.
    11-24-15 06:34 PM
  11. cjcampbell's Avatar
    And a lot of unrealized gains lol ....im still practically at breakeven on it. Only down $100. We'll see what happens in the next month or so....i think it was prob just a bunch of profit taking before the holiday. I'm sure this play will be news driven for a while. It's still up significantly (for now) from where it was prior to the news

    BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!
    I've been thinking of you every time I have a look. Yesterday, I was jealous, today, I am hoping the best is yet to come.
    11-24-15 06:42 PM
  12. chrysaurora's Avatar
    I'm not sure about this marketing expense argument. If I was a marketing company, and BlackBerry asked me for terms where all of the expenses were to be booked in December, it wouldn't make a difference to me.
    I really just think that Chen is trying to get the biggest bang for his buck.
    Reasons for waiting until December :
    1. AT&T - It seems that part of their exclusive period with the PRIV is AT&T marketing the PRIV, at least in their retail locations. I also think that AT&T had a hand in the 40 PRIV giveaway. No reason for BlackBerry to advertise in the USA while AT&T has an exclusive.
    2. The PRIV is barely out there. Forget Amazon and ShopBlackBerry. The PRIV will not sell In big numbers over the Internet. Until a lot more countries and a lot more carriers are stocking the PRIV, why spend the marketing $$$?
    3. No better time to market a product than the season of giving.

    Also going to repeat that Demand is outweighing Supply...
    I hope you are right and we see amazing advertising push as soon as their inventory issues are resolved (no point marketing much right now when devices are not available. You see an ad, go to store to check it out, it's not there, you come back later or you get persuaded by sales-rep to consider Samsung, Nexus, iPhone etc).

    But other possibility is : BlackBerry is just being BlackBerry. There is no strategic plan to wait until inventory is resolved. They have a track record of conducting very weak marketing, and they just continue with that. Tradition of little to no or poor to misguided marketing continues with PRIV.

    Those are two possibility. But I hope the first one turns out to be right (that is, waiting until inventory is resolved so that they have something to market).

    Posted via CB10
    CDM76 likes this.
    11-24-15 07:37 PM
  13. gedob's Avatar
    I'm confused as the model number (STV100-1) is the current version of the unlocked Priv. Perhaps it was a development model that didn't go into actual production.

    Latest BlackBerry Leak Points To Rumored New Samsung Galaxy

    "Online benchmarking tool GFXBench has recorded the appearance of a potential new smartphone from BlackBerry. The model is identified as STV100-1 (reports SamMobile) and features a WQHD screen, a fifteen megapixel camera, and Samsungs Exynos 7420 chipset as its CPU. Could this be the Samsung Galaxy BlackBerry that was rumoured to be in existence earlier this year?"
    rarsen likes this.
    11-24-15 09:51 PM
  14. CDM76's Avatar
    My Rogers friend didn't think any of the events are negative for BlackBerry and was very sincere and wanting to work with BlackBerry to develop sales.
    He also knew a great deal about the product while declaring that he is an Android fan. I like that he has a backlog of phones sold too.
    These things make me VERY happy . Awesome news to hear . thanks for sharing !!

    Posted via CB10
    11-24-15 10:56 PM
  15. zlatno's Avatar
    Nope it's a guess based on the 'rumour' that they could build 20-25K passports per week out of Mexico.
    I am not sure if I understand you. Your numbers are based on rumours of build rate for another device?!?!?
    The PRIV build rate is not public knowledge.
    Even if you are correct with your range, it's still strange. Taking your highend guess of 50k per week, that's only 2.6 million per year.
    Are you actually saying that BlackBerry, and and PRIV sells well, can only manufacture up to this amount?
    Again, makes no sense. Stop guessing something that you can't possibly know.
    Intrestor likes this.
    11-25-15 12:36 AM
  16. TheSignalman's Avatar
    As an investor, it's an irritation hearing that BlackBerry don't have enough phones to sell to people who want that d@mn phone. Why is there always something for us to try and massage away in our own minds when it comes to BlackBerry's decision-making? Get it right, people. It's not like they have sold out because of millions and millions of sales. They are losing money with these delays. It's delusional to think most people will sit around waiting for the Priv to show up again. A lot of people will simply leave the shop with a different phone. Get it right, BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    _dimi_, spiller, CDM76 and 1 others like this.
    11-25-15 01:06 AM
  17. early2bed's Avatar
    As an investor, it's an irritation hearing that BlackBerry don't have enough phones to sell to people who want that d@mn phone.
    Handsets have to be ordered months ahead of time. You can't just pick up the phone and say I need more of these two weeks from now. How do you think BlackBerry got caught with $1 billion worth of unsold inventory a few years ago? Isn't that what cost TH his job and what John Chen promised not to do?

    Also he made a big deal about how the contracted manufacturers were going to take the inventory risk from now on so you can sure they weren't going to overshoot the volume estimate.
    zlatno, morganplus8, gedob and 1 others like this.
    11-25-15 01:16 AM
  18. zlatno's Avatar
    Handsets have to be ordered months ahead of time. You can't just pick up the phone and say I need more of these two weeks from now. How do you think BlackBerry got caught with $1 billion worth of unsold inventory a few years ago? Isn't that what cost TH his job and what John Chen promised not to do?

    Also he made a big deal about how the contracted manufacturers were going to take the inventory risk from now on so you can sure they weren't going to overshoot the volume estimate.
    Great post / reply. You just saved me from having to write a much too long post to say what you wrote in a paragraph.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    11-25-15 02:50 AM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Please keep this thread to the (current) acceptable level of friendlyness.
    Easy tip: when your post contains many occurences of "you"; you're probably more adressing personal issues than the topic.

    Preventive, friendly comment.
    No charge, no action.

    Have a GREAT day gang !
    Corbu, rarsen, morganplus8 and 8 others like this.
    11-25-15 06:35 AM
  20. morganplus8's Avatar
    OT - Morgan... Hate to ask you but what are your thoughts on XON? Seems like they are up to some interesting stuff spanning multiple applications.
    No problem at all, this is a very interesting company and a complex one at that. I spent a good 45 minutes trying to make sense of their financials and when the dust cleared, they have some very interesting irons in the fire and are well enough financed to pursue them. GMO is one thing, they are now able to sell in the US, salmon and perhaps beef down the road. They don't stop at that, they are into all aspects of farming, insect control, a drug pipeline, that's quite the challenge to be first movers in so many fields. The problem I have as in investor is trying to understand how to value their stock. Their last three months of stock pricing looks like something out of a BlackBerry theme park! There appears to be great support closer to the low $ 30.00's and the press on the company is excellent. They have a great management team, $ 354 MM in cash and approvals coming in monthly. A very nice find but one of the most difficult companies to analyze due to their exposure to so many sectors.

    Well done CJ!
    bbjdog, Corbu, rarsen and 5 others like this.
    11-25-15 08:29 AM
  21. morganplus8's Avatar
    As much as I feel the PRIV launch is a step backwards when comparing it to the launch of the Passport ; they were only selling 800,000 last quarter, making it so damn hard to predict if they were able to get that number back above 1 million during this quarter. If they did, then I will be ecstatic. If they report another 800,000 handsets, don't provide any hard numbers (or prediction) for PRIV, and I hear sentences like ''in line with expectations'' or ''reception is quite good'', then I think they blew their last chance. As much as I like to see them succeed, it seems to me that they will not be able to do this if they don't turn this ship around NOW. A status quo in sales volume means going backwards imo. Either get volume above 1 million, so you can change sentiment, and hopefully produce more handsets for a smooth launch going forward, or get out of the hardware business asap.
    Hi _dimi_ !!

    I agree with you here, I want to see us doing over a 1 MM handsets per quarter to put to rest this nonsense about this phone being BlackBerry's last one. Even my Rogers friend told me that future handset sales are dependent on this phone. I don't think that's true at all but the media wants to hear it, analysts want to hear it and Chen sort of gave them what they want while knowing he has another phone lined up for next year.

    Let's look at this whole thing in a different light, how much exposure would you want BlackBerry to have in terms of bottom line cost in this phone? At a cost of say $ 280 to BlackBerry all in, how many phones should they order and still live to fight another day? Suppose that number is 500,000 units on the first run, that money includes a successful launch of the Priv without recall risk etc.. At that level, they are risking $ 140 MM plus some risk on that number. Chen has to look at the refresh time for a second order versus a larger amount of exposure today. I hope he exposed the company to say $ 200 MM in bottom line costs plus risk. So now we are talking about 700,000 on order with units typically shipping in smaller amounts of say 200,000 for the first launch. This might be manageable and still favourable for BlackBerry with the initial delay. We will see some Priv's sold in Q3 and there will be enough for December assuming they haven't hit it out of the park of course.

    What are your thoughts on the type and amount of risk for taking an all new product to market like the Priv?
    11-25-15 08:51 AM
  22. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Nice push over $8.

    Posted via CB10
    11-25-15 09:21 AM
  23. ZayDub's Avatar
    FYI -- ER appears to be set for Dec 18, per Nasdaq.


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20151125_092748.png

    BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!
    11-25-15 09:28 AM
  24. spiller's Avatar
    I am not sure if I understand you. Your numbers are based on rumours of build rate for another device?!?!?
    The PRIV build rate is not public knowledge.
    Even if you are correct with your range, it's still strange. Taking your highend guess of 50k per week, that's only 2.6 million per year.
    Are you actually saying that BlackBerry, and and PRIV sells well, can only manufacture up to this amount?
    Again, makes no sense. Stop guessing something that you can't possibly know.
    It was a guess of build rate. I should have made that clear in my diatribe. Not to say they can't negotiate to increase production rate but that is my guess for their initial contract and build rate. And with that guess.... 8 weeks of builds before launch would have been 200-400K available at launch before this 2nd run became available Nov 23-24. I will also guess that they only book 150K Priv sales this quarter due to their accounting practices (sell through after return period is over). At the same time...I really hope they again change their accounting practices (this quarter) to go to sell through - activation ....without the return period buffer.

    Here could be another 'conversative' *guess* if we keep that 2.6M number:

    2.6M Privs + 1.2M BB10s (300K per quarter) + 1.2M 'new model' BB android devices (March-Oct 2016) = 5M unit sales per year.

    But not conservative I will *guess* 4M+ Priv sales alone.....and a $18 SP at end of 2016 as we see revenue increase with device sales and QNX auto / OTA.updates.
    11-25-15 09:44 AM
  25. spiller's Avatar
    As much as I feel the PRIV launch is a step backwards when comparing it to the launch of the Passport ; they were only selling 800,000 last quarter, making it so damn hard to predict if they were able to get that number back above 1 million during this quarter. If they did, then I will be ecstatic. If they report another 800,000 handsets, don't provide any hard numbers (or prediction) for PRIV, and I hear sentences like ''in line with expectations'' or ''reception is quite good'', then I think they blew their last chance. As much as I like to see them succeed, it seems to me that they will not be able to do this if they don't turn this ship around NOW. A status quo in sales volume means going backwards imo. Either get volume above 1 million, so you can change sentiment, and hopefully produce more handsets for a smooth launch going forward, or get out of the hardware business asap.
    Not sure this quarter is the one to base that conclusion on. If they are seeing very good (better than expected) demand, hopefully they can increase their build rates. They still have Verizon and pretty much the rest of the world (other than UK/Canada/Hong Kong) to get this device to. I expect to see 1M Privs sold next quarter (Dec-Feb) which includes the holiday season / wider global availability.
    morganplus8, bbjdog, 3MIKE and 6 others like this.
    11-25-15 09:50 AM
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