View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Ok... here we go....

    We are still in no mans land. Today saw a fight on both sides, and quite frankly, the sellers won. Not due to anything other than lack commitment from the buyers. In a day where we say the markets jump by a LOT, BBRY was a disappointment to me. Meh.. it is what is is.

    We are still outside of the BB's so in theory, should be sucked back in soon enough. The recent downtrend has been dramatic and steep and I don't "think" it can last too many more sessions but the bears (aka short sellers in this case) seem to be coming on strong. Look at the volume when we cross certain points.... they don't want any momentum as they put in a LOT of money to drive us as low as we are. $6 is a huge pain point and both sides see it.

    Below is my 3 minute chart for the day. I circled two areas. Both have to do with the 200 I spoke of yesterday. Early in the day, it tried but just couldn't do it.... go figure. After that it was a watch till bottom, which, quite frankly, I was surprised to see, was only slightly red. Later you could see the trend line forcing it down. This could be seen as a defending triangle but to but the trend, it broke up, thank god. It again decided to run at the moving averages and again went for the 200. It was tough but finally broke out and tackled it as a few moving averages converged in a show of strength.

    In the end, the sellers were out in full force but there is hope yet. As usual, I look forward to what tomorrow brings and wonder if it's time to close, or grow my position but I wouldn't hesitate to sell at $6.40 as that's where I see good amount of resistance. Personally, I think it's gonna be a green day!

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2015-09-30-9.35.31-pm.png
    bbjdog, 3MIKE, Corbu and 12 others like this.
    09-30-15 10:30 PM
  2. Dave Liao's Avatar
    I own BBRY and an actual BlackBerry as my vote of confidence in the company.
    bbjdog, 3MIKE, Corbu and 5 others like this.
    09-30-15 10:30 PM
  3. bbjdog's Avatar
    I like this a lot!!!

    Welcome to the party, but your 20 years late, thanks for coming anyways.
    3MIKE and Christophe Piquemal like this.
    09-30-15 10:38 PM
  4. Ecm's Avatar
    [WARN]Do not post complaints about Moderators. Mobile Nations has the highest regard for individuals who volunteer their time to be a Moderator. Every day, our Moderators read through hundreds of threads and posts, and all Moderator decisions are final. We trust any action a Moderator takes will follow our rules & guidelines. Please send a PM to a Moderator if you have questions about any Moderator action.[/WARN]
    sati01 and techvisor like this.
    09-30-15 10:41 PM
  5. Corbu's Avatar
    Hey didn't I unfriended you from this thread. Lol

    The only think I contribute is beer and ????????

    Thanks mate and still waiting for that case of beer you owe me. Christmas is almost here, I will wait for it. Lol
    Don't give up hope, bbjdog. I'm having my own special blend brewed just for you! Not quite ready yet...

    Be well.
    09-30-15 10:51 PM
  6. ZayDub's Avatar
    Don't give up hope, bbjdog. I'm having my own special blend brewed just for you! Not quite ready yet...

    Be well.
    Can I get in on that special blend lol?

    BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!
    bbjdog, Corbu and Superfly_FR like this.
    09-30-15 11:44 PM
  7. kadakn01's Avatar
    Conf call notes with IR at BBRY (more to come over several days as there are many pages of notes to go thru!)

    Info on Priv release dates - still targeting November or December, probably November as they want some of this revenue to show in the quarter. It will probably be the last effort BBRY makes on hardware, and chen will decide based on its success whether to invest elsewhere or continue with it. Breakeven on Android Priv is 5M devices (they are already at almost 4 -5M a year on BB10), half the breakeven of BB10 devices obviously due to lower OPEX, not sure if GrSecurity is being used. He said think of the Priv as a call option on the company.

    Software breakdown - they don't is the simple answer however in response to concerns that there is no "organic" growth, ie. from software, ex Adhoc and GOOD, it will be in teens, so their is real growth in the underlying Software. Chen believes even if there is no longer value (as he said at the end of the call about EMM given away for free eventually) in BES to manage say email for a phone, they will use BES for many other uses like OTA for cars.
    SAF revenue is all BIS, and as mentioned on the call will be replaced by Software revenue in the 4th qtr of 2016 (Dec 2015 - Feb 2016), to be fair the SAF revenue is so low at this point, it is not hard to replace it with SW!
    12 to 13 year shelf life on patents, and they include international patent applications to get to the 44,000 that Chen always mentions

    IPO of QNX or BBM would not work as both are integral part of IOT initiative, and don't have enough stand alone value to justify an IPO.
    425M purchase price was EV, meaning it took into consideration the cash and debt that GOOD had and will take some time to fully integrate.
    The reason the cash is not being used to do a larger share buyback nor any large type acquisitions (other than small add on's of say less than 50M) is that they have enough on their plate to integrate GOOD and Adhoc, and taking anything else on would severely limit their resources.
    With respect to the shares, they will decide the best use of the timing, and as they authorized an additional 15M shares, (12M originally with 6M already purchased at average of $7.83 and 6M remaining) so a total of 27M or 21M left to purchase. They can start purchases as of this past tuesday, but again may use cash for other purposes if they think they can get a higher return, so no guarantee on how much or when.

    An interesting note on the Cisco IP deal.
    They were working on it for some time (over a year) and wanted Cisco to pay them a ongoing royalty payment (analysts prefer those for their modelling of revenues vs, the lumpy one time deals) , but cisco wanted to only do a upfront one time deal. Also, the deal gave BBRY access to ALL of Cisco's patents and cisco still paid them 70M, showing the value of BBRY patent portfolio as well as a broad, diverse use of their patents, not just for mobility like most assume. However, the reason Cisco was mentioned, is because it sends a message to other companies in a similar space (he gave an example of a company) that would see that deal and be compelled to do a similar deal with BBRY or potentially face action from BBRY. This is an indirect way of getting the message across without being a patent troll as chen says, and perhaps expect (my opinion) similar rationale for companies that may be mentioned next quarter. Other deals are coming and they have a specific IP person who was brought on to go after these deals (he was the one who got the Cisco and the other unnamed company)
    They think their is much more value in the IP than they current book value states, and the analyst community is dramatically undervaluing the portfolio.

    He made some personnel changes recently that were difficult, but an example that Chen will do everything to make BBRY successful. He does not talk to analysts as he is simply too busy (which the analysts don't like btw as they all ask to talk to him), he said he sleeps about 3 hours a night! He is not happy (used other language!) with the share price and takes it personally. This was emphasized several times!

    The analyst community is too fixated on hardware and not giving credit for the software and also are pessimistic on BBRY's ability to grow organically. The last conf call where Chen fumbled on SW revenue did not help, and the shift to including IP revenue was seen by many to try to divert the lack of growth in BES. Bottom line it is a show me story!


    More to come soon!
    10-01-15 02:06 AM
  8. Uzi's Avatar
    Conf call notes with IR at BBRY (more to come over several days as there are many pages of notes to go thru!)

    Info on Priv release dates - still targeting November or December, probably November as they want some of this revenue to show in the quarter. It will probably be the last effort BBRY makes on hardware, and chen will decide based on its success whether to invest elsewhere or continue with it. Breakeven on Android Priv is 5M devices (they are already at almost 4 -5M a year on BB10), half the breakeven of BB10 devices obviously due to lower OPEX, not sure if GrSecurity is being used. He said think of the Priv as a call option on the company.



    More to come soon!
    Thanks for sharing, I'm confident they will meet this target
    10-01-15 02:09 AM
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    How to 'activate' that feature? Do I need to activate this(img below) subscription?
    Forgive me if I ask, but I would love to activate it, "sniff" and see what I get..You know, as an Hobby :-P

    Posted via CB10
    Hey Smart548 !
    You need to subscribe to BBM Protected.
    BBM Protected - Global
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 10-01-15 at 03:03 AM.
    rarsen and smart548 like this.
    10-01-15 02:35 AM
  10. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    FTR - Passing point.
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png

    So much !
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png
    Let's fly over the 300K (not a like flood request ! There's another "challenge post" for that with 1826755 likes !)

    Have a great day gang - I read and learned so much in the latest pages : THANK YOU ALL !

    edit: just noticed we're now also on the CB land page : Let's raise the bar of quality !
    (AND stay cool and friendly !)
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 10-01-15 at 05:53 AM.
    Korepab, jxnb, Mr BBRY and 14 others like this.
    10-01-15 02:55 AM
  11. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Kadakn01 just became my #2 favorite Stockberrian!!! Many thanks for all the effort..

    Posted via CB10
    Mr BBRY, Corbu, La Emperor and 7 others like this.
    10-01-15 07:05 AM
  12. Mr BBRY's Avatar
    Conf call notes with IR at BBRY (more to come over several days as there are many pages of notes to go thru!)

    He made some personnel changes recently that were difficult, but an example that Chen will do everything to make BBRY successful. He does not talk to analysts as he is simply too busy (which the analysts don't like btw as they all ask to talk to him), he said he sleeps about 3 hours a night! He is not happy (used other language!) with the share price and takes it personally. This was emphasized several times!

    The analyst community is too fixated on hardware and not giving credit for the software and also are pessimistic on BBRY's ability to grow organically. The last conf call where Chen fumbled on SW revenue did not help, and the shift to including IP revenue was seen by many to try to divert the lack of growth in BES. Bottom line it is a show me story!

    More to come soon!
    OUTSTANDING post, kadakn01!

    Thank you so much for sharing all of this valuable information with us. You gave us yet another reason to love this thread. I'm very pleased with everything I am hearing, except perhaps something a certain valued contributor here has been persistently urging, which is to "use that cash pile"! I do believe we'll see Chen more willing to do so as soon as he sees stable growth, which looks to be very soon with his aggressive monetization of IP, and the release of the PRIV.

    Great conversation around here lately, gang (with the exception of some distractions). I must say, I have more confidence than ever in the turnaroud / rebirth of BlackBerry. This stock price makes no sense at $6/share and I'd love to buy more, but I already placed my all-in bet, so all I can do now is be patient. But I can feel it in the air... it's coming soon! Chen is the right man for the job and is building sustainable long term value for this company. Victory is within reach and I'm going along for the ride. Cheers!
    OlympusMons, 3MIKE, Corbu and 12 others like this.
    10-01-15 07:23 AM
  13. zlatno's Avatar
    Lol. You 'owe' 1K shares?
    Freudian slip I suppose?

    PS - Yes, Zlatno and others; welcome aboard!
    )
    Unfortunately (at the moment), I am in for more than 1k shares...

    My previous post seems to have been deleted so I am not even sure what I wrote.

    But I will leave you with this : 10-12 years ago, NO ONE expected Apple shares to be worth so much today. 15 years ago, EVERYONE expected Sybase to go under. 3 years ago, I expected BB(RY) (nee RIM(M)) to now be worth about $35.

    There is not much downside to BB(RY) stock. But if all goes well, the upside would be huge...
    10-01-15 07:44 AM
  14. Corbu's Avatar
    John Chen held me back after BlackBerry restructuring: Sandeep Chennakeshu | ET Telecom

    India-born Sandeep Chennakeshu, who is popularly referred to as Dr Fix, is a key man behind ailing Canadian device maker BlackBerry's restructuring. The once-iconic company is now banking on the QNX platform and is aiming to garner $500 million revenue from the software business by FY2016.

    In an interaction with ETTelecom's Muntazir Abbas Chennakeshu, who is driving the Blackberry Technology Solutions (BTS) portfolio, shares the company's innovation around licensing business. Edited excerpts:

    Is it challenging to be a new technology leader for a company like BlackBerry which has seen many ups and downs in recent past?

    I came to BlackBerry in a very interesting way. I used to have my own business. I was a consultant and after being many years in corporate America. I grew up in Bangalore and I completed my engineering in Bangalore. I wanted to go back to engineering and so I went to Canada and did my masters and then I did my PhD and then I joined General Electric corporate research. It was the place where Edison started his lamp.

    I went ahead and built a team and later that team was acquired by Ericsson and then Ericsson made me the head of their research and then I slowly went up their ladder and became their CTO, I was the only foreign CTO in its history of 137 years. Then, I began managing phones and turned up to be the CTO of Sony Ericsson too.

    Then later I returned to America and then I had the mind to do stuff myself and so I went off and entered the multinational restructuring business. I found broken companies and gave their board a blue print on how to fix it and then they would employ me saying I knew so much. I used the existing people of the company, fixed the company and handed over the new keys to the new CEO and go and fix another company. It was a great job. I was a fixer and that is how BlackBerry got hold of me.

    So, they were raising money and asked me to evaluate it. I met John Chen and I helped him restructure BlackBerry for six months and then he held me back.

    When did you start BlackBerry's restructuring? How much time have you spent in BlackBerry?

    I have been in BlackBerry since August of last year as an employee, but before that I started in November of 2013. I began analysing BlackBerry in the September of 2013. I spent about three months analysing it, then there were six months of restructuring, then I took over this new division called BlackBerry Technology Solutions.

    Your business is separate from that of a device vertical. What is your portfolio?

    It is separate. My business is completely independent of the devices. So, we sell to devices, all our technology is going to the device, they are one customer to me and I also sell them to others like Ford and GM.

    We are into infotainment, telematics and digital instruments cluster. Our software goes in many cars because we are safety certified and the probability of it failing is very low.

    We have a little more than 1100 customers, across segments automotive, networking, railway, medical and industrial automation. We are very wide spread.

    You are also banking on your cryptography segment. What are its features?

    The business is Certicom which is called as cryptography solutions specialist. We have a particular technology called the elliptical curve cryptography technology.

    The advantage is as we use short keys, it is 30-70 fold more efficient and we call it the next generation. It has been adopted by many governments, so we sell tool kits, which is a software library which helps use design and maintain security. We also sell certificates that are used to establish authentication.

    We have sold almost 18 million certificates till today. It is a growing business. We also protect chips. So, when a chip is manufactured we inject special keys into it to protect them. Till today, we have protected almost 450 million chips.

    You have a patents portfolio that you license. How many patents do you have now?

    Yes, of course we have our patents portfolio that we are monetizing. So, that is the fifth business. We have QNX, Certicom which is cryptography, RF antenna tuning, IoT and then we have basically the patent portfolio that we licence. We have 40,000 patents which we license. So, this is kind of a new business. All of our five businesses are licensing business which is high margin business.

    Do you think it's time when Internet of Things (IoT) makes its presence in the Indian market?

    Absolutely, I believe that there are many things we can do. I think one is the ability to diagnose and monitor white goods. For example, one can minimise sending people out for servicing and do it over the air. As almost every house has a Wi-Fi. So as long as your client can talk to the Wi-Fi, you can do your software updates and it will be a really good application. And the second area I think is the asset tracking because India is a country where a lot of goods are flowing in different corridors and I think this could be really efficient way to track and optimise goods flow because it helps you with efficiency. These are only applications.

    Our IoT system can be used across many applications, we can use them in hospitals, and we can use it for a much wide variety of applications. It is completely scalable and its footprint is worldwide, secure, private and scalable. Today, we are focusing on these two because of the business focal point.

    What are the opportunities you see in India?

    India is a big country. It has a population of what 1.3 billion. It is going to grow, every industrial nation has a good potential and so does India. India has 240 million Internet users and has good scope for business to grow and maintain in such manner. I have come to India with the potential to understand if these businesses would partner me. I am a technologist and I like inventing things, I want to know if there is a solution I can provide from all the way back in America, but for that I need partners who would tailor it to suit the needs. So, one of my purposes for the visit is to understand who would be interested.
    10-01-15 08:14 AM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    Can I get in on that special blend lol?
    Sure ZayDub! You're in! It's our $100 Party Blend...
    10-01-15 08:16 AM
  16. sixaxis_ms's Avatar
    big move this morning in pre-market

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-15 08:33 AM
  17. awindsr's Avatar
    You are right about the quiet period and I would add, they didn't give guidance, they didn't suggest what revenues will look like, nor do they state that BlackBerry is stable in any way. So how would it be possible to warn investors about something they have never referenced? As of Q2, Chen has stated that he thinks we have bottomed out now, revenues will incrementally grow over the next two quarters and this is his first form of guidance. If he had stated that revenues for Q2 would come in around $ 600 MM, he would have had to say something based upon the actual numbers. He didn't. Nor did he talk about handset sales of 1 MM, he continued to tell us that he wouldn't provide guidance and that BB was one or two quarters away from the bottom of its cycle. He has done nothing wrong here and that is why no one is addressing this issue in the media today. MOBL gives guidance, BlackBerry doesn't, its that simple.
    Another fantastic informative interjection Morgan! Thank you for your clarity! :big hug:

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-15 09:40 AM
  18. morganplus8's Avatar
    Just a quick chart to show everyone the Bollinger Bands and the 3-ema target for the basis of a rally:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bb-oct-1-2015.png

    RSI is signaling oversold at the moment with a reading of RSI=29 when the stock touches its 3-ema. The pivot point for today is to clear the $ 6.21/shr mark and hold it. We have higher highs and higher lows in trading since Tuesday so the stock does want to attempt a rally here. As CJ pointed out, we spent 4 days below or outside the BB Bands and that corrects itself eventually as it has today by moving back inside those bands. Everything sets up for a possible rally starting today, we need to clear $ 6.21/shr and than you should see some TA buying come into it shortly after that. Let's get the DOW to help us out here with a modest pop today. GL
    10-01-15 09:54 AM
  19. ZayDub's Avatar
    Sure ZayDub! You're in! It's our $100 Party Blend...
    Thanks! I'll be looking forward to it!

    BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!
    3MIKE, Corbu and bbjdog like this.
    10-01-15 10:26 AM
  20. snaponsly's Avatar
    I know I know "past performance does not predict future performance" but last time we were at RSI=29 on the weekly charts was Dec 2013 and the stock rallied from there for several weeks...... hoping for something similar with this new device and other related deals in the works!
    morganplus8, 3MIKE, bbjdog and 1 others like this.
    10-01-15 11:13 AM
  21. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I know I know "past performance does not predict future performance" but last time we were at RSI=29 on the weekly charts was Dec 2013 and the stock rallied from there for several weeks...... hoping for something similar with this new device and other related deals in the works!
    Dec 2013 there was a new CEO and a infusion of CASH to help that CEO create a new vision for BlackBerry....
    10-01-15 11:30 AM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    10-01-15 11:35 AM
  23. OlympusMons's Avatar

    RSI is signaling oversold at the moment with a reading of RSI=29 when the stock touches its 3-ema. The pivot point for today is to clear the $ 6.21/shr mark and hold it. We have higher highs and higher lows in trading since Tuesday so the stock does want to attempt a rally here. As CJ pointed out, we spent 4 days below or outside the BB Bands and that corrects itself eventually as it has today by moving back inside those bands. Everything sets up for a possible rally starting today, we need to clear $ 6.21/shr and than you should see some TA buying come into it shortly after that. Let's get the DOW to help us out here with a modest pop today. GL
    Thanks M8 (and CJ) for the charts. While I do see some validity with CJ's thoughts that there may be a bit more downside in the very short term (I'm speaking less than a week), I think the general market is in the midst of one last bear raid to suppress a broad market rally as oil may be showing the first signs of a sustained recovery.

    Kind of OT here but allow me to chime in (or forgive my ramblings) to see if we can shed some light on what's happening in the big picture globally...

    We have an interesting situation developing today on the markets with Putin finally breaking out of his corner and taking matters into his own hands with Syria and ISIS. The US is about to be booted out of there (or have little choice but to step aside and watch) as Assad has invited the Russians into their region to freely bomb and take out any rebel factions along with ISIS. I think they will also take out much of the oil supply trade lines adjacent to Saudi Arabia to cut off their funding which is what was really needed all along to get rid of their ability to fight the government (many feel that there has been a lot of dirty oil hitting the market from this region at low ball prices to sustain funding of these terrorists and rebels contributing to the oil price war). The issue all along is that America painted Assad to be a tyrant after the chemical bombing and they have had no real solution except to try and throw a bit of military action here and there to fight ISIS and blow hot air around the idea of replacing Assad since they cannot endorse him without sounding hypocritical.

    Putin had to do something as Russia (and Iran) have taken an economic beating and need to stop this price war with oil.

    We had Goldman Sachs predict $20 oil a couple weeks ago and I'm quite sure that's not going to happen for them to cover their short positions... perhaps they are trying to make up for it in other sectors? I've seen so many stocks in almost every sector (of course including BB) attempt to rally but there appears to be a huge cap suppressing any significant run up. The only effective strategy lately has been to sell into market optimism early in the day and watch as it get pummelled for the rest of the sessions.

    The bears can only sustain this for so long and even they will eventually run out of steam (or stock). The magic question is when?
    morganplus8, 3MIKE, sati01 and 6 others like this.
    10-01-15 11:43 AM
  24. Christophe Piquemal's Avatar
    Well, in near term, I can't see any positive and sensitive evaluation of oil.

    A lot of ressources, and more coming in with the end of US embargo on Iran; and on the other side, less and less consumsion...
    Superfly_FR and awindsr like this.
    10-01-15 11:54 AM
  25. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I could have edited my previous post "passing point FTR" but I think it's quite significantt to notice (mind the change, not the value).
    While they stan bearish in large proportion (61%) the Nasdaq community's 1Year Target tanked approx. 19.5% from $9 to $7.25.
    Reminder : this indicator is pretty useless but may be used as a "feeling" indicator (that's how I use it).
    It's been pretty stable lately, so it reflects some reactions to last E.R, rational or not, they're not enthusiast, to say the least.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 10-01-15 at 12:18 PM. Reason: added Nasdaq
    3MIKE, morganplus8, sidhuk and 3 others like this.
    10-01-15 11:56 AM
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