View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. OlympusMons's Avatar
    Based on your question, asking for a detailed answer and being critical, I can tell you know nothing about trading options. You want me to explain to you so that you can learn. And I will do that for you.

    So rookie, you see yesterday the November, 2015 put options for BBRY at a strike price of $6.50 were quoted at a closing price of $0.27
    Therefore Kt1 = $0.27,
    And you would have needed a minimum of 610 put contracts to break +$14k in profit.
    Today $BBRY stock price declined by (-4%) making the value of your put contracts increase in value and now "in the money."
    So today, a mere 24 hours later Kt1 = St was = 0.27 and now you sell those same $6.50 strike November, 2015 expirations put contracts now valued now at Kt = $0.50 or +$0.23 higher than yesterday. You keep the spread which is $0.23. Because each standardized option represents 100 shares, you multiply the spread by 100. That is, max(Kt - St) * 100 * 610 - C or

    max (0.50 - 0.27) = 0.23 * 100 * 610 = $14,030 - (c = your fancy broker's online commision.)

    To an long/short investor, there is alpha (or value/profit) on stock price moves up or down. You see the bearish $BBRY technicals and you say hey there's some forced selling pressure so this stock will decline further let's open a short position with limited upside risk by buying put options. You can approximate the risk through mathematical approximations using volatility forecasting methods.

    Oh one more thing, $BBRY declined by -4.44% today so if you shorted 56K shares, +$14k in profit is roughly a 4.4% return on that investment levered or unlevered in on complete day trade. Lasly, I forgot to address that the definition of a put option is a contract which represents an obligation to sell a specified amount of shares at a specified price upon exercise of the put option contract writer within the expiration date. The contract specifics are mentioned in the contract itself. Therefore holding a naked put option position is the equivalent of a short position but without actually selling any shares. You can thank financial engineers many years ago for its creation.
    Thank you for the math lesson in options trading 101 but I believe you are missing the original point that stated either by ignorance or mistake that he/she was "in" at $10 and "sold" at $6... this implies that he/she held a long position instead of shorting. We haven't seen a correction or retraction so please re-do the math with a long position or a call option instead and see what we get.
    3MIKE, morganplus8, bbjdog and 1 others like this.
    09-29-15 05:31 PM
  2. eg24hrs's Avatar
    Thank you for the math lesson in options trading 101 but I believe you are missing the original point that stated either by ignorance or mistake that he/she was "in" at $10 and "sold" at $6... this implies that he/she held a long position instead of shorting. We haven't seen a correction or retraction so please re-do the math with a long position or a call option instead and see what we get.
    I didn't reply to that post. My response was to the post I mentioned in the quote.
    techvisor likes this.
    09-29-15 05:38 PM
  3. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Like I mentioned earlier, I went through some rough life changes just starting to finally come out of it slowly. I'm glad to be back even though I'm not as active as the diehards on here
    Aah. Sorry to hear that.
    I assumed you lost some money and were bitter with bbry and left BlackBerry for good!


    Posted via CB10
    09-29-15 05:49 PM
  4. OlympusMons's Avatar
    I didn't reply to that post. My response was to the post I mentioned in the quote.
    Hi Edgar,

    I can assure you that morganplus8 has more than a comprehensive understanding of options trading and hedging techniques. He was calling out the original poster who came up with what appears to be an arbitrary profit of $14K being long in the stock since the $10 level to today. Let's not argue over semantics and come up with some ideas of how we can all profit going forward instead of making claims ex post facto.
    3MIKE, bbjdog, Corbu and 6 others like this.
    09-29-15 05:53 PM
  5. eg24hrs's Avatar
    Hi Edgar,

    I can assure you that morganplus8 has more than a comprehensive understanding of options trading and hedging techniques. He was calling out the original poster who came up with what appears to be an arbitrary profit of $14K being long in the stock since the $10 level to today. Let's not argue over semantics and come up with some ideas of how we can all profit going forward instead of making claims ex post facto.
    That's the thing, I can seem to find the OPs I replied to. They all went missing and now none of this makes sense. Moreover, you can be long the stock but with a protective put strategy in place you can use near term price swings to profit without closing out the longer-term positions.
    ZayDub likes this.
    09-29-15 06:08 PM
  6. BanffMoose's Avatar
    That's the thing, I can seem to find the OPs I replied to. They all went missing and now none of this makes sense. Moreover, you can be long the stock but with a protective put strategy in place you can use near term price swings to profit without closing out the longer-term positions.
    Mods must have come through and did some cleansing. That's probably why you can't find the posts you're looking for.

    Morgan and others understand the options stuff. It's the rest of us who need to learn.

    Posted via CB10
    3MIKE, bbjdog and Corbu like this.
    09-29-15 06:27 PM
  7. morganplus8's Avatar
    I didn't reply to that post. My response was to the post I mentioned in the quote.
    edgar,

    You tried to defend a bogus message this afternoon regarding a short position in a "stock" by requiring an additional days' worth of theoretical high/low trade data on put options with an open interest of only 116 contracts. You needed 610 contracts to weave your ill-gotten story and we all know that any series with only 116 contracts would not have played out anywhere near your guesstimates. The fact is, that poster can't speak a word of investment English and you know it. So we have one suspect defending another in very short order, nothing suspicious about that! I'll leave you to stick handle your way around the credibility gap as I requested that you post a real situation where that message could have "meant" put options by mistake and you failed to do so.
    3MIKE, bbjdog, Corbu and 9 others like this.
    09-29-15 06:28 PM
  8. ZayDub's Avatar
    Based on your question, asking for a detailed answer and being critical, I can tell you know nothing about trading options. You want me to explain to you so that you can learn. And I will do that for you.

    So rookie, you see yesterday the November, 2015 put options for BBRY at a strike price of $6.50 were quoted at a closing price of $0.27
    Therefore Kt1 = $0.27,
    And you would have needed a minimum of 610 put contracts to break +$14k in profit.
    Today $BBRY stock price declined by (-4%) making the value of your put contracts increase in value and now "in the money."
    So today, a mere 24 hours later Kt1 = St was = 0.27 and now you sell those same $6.50 strike November, 2015 expirations put contracts now valued now at Kt = $0.50 or +$0.23 higher than yesterday. You keep the spread which is $0.23. Because each standardized option represents 100 shares, you multiply the spread by 100. That is, max(Kt - St) * 100 * 610 - C or

    max (0.50 - 0.27) = 0.23 * 100 * 610 = $14,030 - (c = your fancy broker's online commision.)

    To an long/short investor, there is alpha (or value/profit) on stock price moves up or down. You see the bearish $BBRY technicals and you say hey there's some forced selling pressure so this stock will decline further let's open a short position with limited upside risk by buying put options. You can approximate the risk through mathematical approximations using volatility forecasting methods.

    Oh one more thing, $BBRY declined by -4.44% today so if you shorted 56K shares, +$14k in profit is roughly a 4.4% return on that investment levered or unlevered in on complete day trade. Lasly, I forgot to address that the definition of a put option is a contract which represents an obligation to sell a specified amount of shares at a specified price upon exercise of the put option contract writer within the expiration date. The contract specifics are mentioned in the contract itself. Therefore holding a naked put option position is the equivalent of a short position but without actually selling any shares. You can thank financial engineers many years ago for its creation.
    For those who are looking to learn options, I'd like to clarify one thing in your statement:

    A put option does NOT represent an obligation to SELL. A put represents an OPTION to sell by the buyer of the option (put) and an OBLIGATION to buy by the writer of the put.

    The example you gave would be referring to calls, not puts. That is all.

    BBM Channel: C002165D3 Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Playbook > Classic AND Passport SE!!!
    morganplus8, rarsen, Corbu and 5 others like this.
    09-29-15 06:52 PM
  9. Corbu's Avatar
    Edgar,

    Everyone if free to contribute whatever he chooses to this great and long running thread wherein we have already discussed and implemented many of the points that you mentioned earlier. Since you were perhaps not aware of that, no harm done.

    One word, if I may. I am not sure calling another member of this thread "rookie" is the best way to make friends. Nor is it consistent with the Community Rules & Guidelines which another member gave us the opportunity to reacquaint ourselves with earlier today...

    Community Rules & Guidelines - Mobile Nations Forums

    All the best,
    Last edited by Corbu; 09-29-15 at 07:33 PM.
    09-29-15 07:16 PM
  10. bbjdog's Avatar
    Don't know if it has been posted yet, if so sorry.

    https://www1.good.com/about/press-re...-platform.html
    Corbu, morganplus8, 3MIKE and 5 others like this.
    09-29-15 08:12 PM
  11. bbjdog's Avatar
    Wonder why a +. 21 cents after-hour high was reached? Anyways here is some news from BlackBerry, still rolling along.


    http://press.blackberry.com/press/20...1o-enterp.html

    Just thought I would paste this section of the news release.

    According to a Hong Kong survey1, more than 50% of SMEs in Hong Kong recognize the importance of data security and see cloud services as one of the solutions in resolving data security issues. To accommodate the prevailing mobile deployment models BYOD, COPE and COBO, BES12 Cloud leverages BlackBerrys trusted global infrastructure to offer secured and expanded cross-platform EMM capabilities. Its simple setup and configuration make it easy for SMEs to adopt cross platform MDM, enabling them to enjoy the benefits of cloud-based productivity and collaboration solutions like BlackBerry Blend and BBM Meetings.

    Tom Chan, Managing Director, Commercial Group of HKT, said, The increasing variety of enterprise mobile deployment models has made the enterprise mobility management environment ever more complicated. At 1O1O, we are committed to offering leading and powerful mobile solutions to meet the needs of our customers. We are happy to deepen our partnership with BlackBerry to provide more value-added components, enabling our customers to work flexibly with our strong mobile network.
    Corbu, kadakn01, 3MIKE and 4 others like this.
    09-29-15 08:44 PM
  12. kadakn01's Avatar
    Tomorrow I will be on a conf call with Investor Relations for BBRY, please let me know any questions you would like answered and I will do a follow up post with answers.

    Posted via CB10
    09-29-15 10:31 PM
  13. audio_Rx's Avatar
    Is it possible to get more information on priv? Release dates, maybe?

    Posted via CB10
    kadakn01, bbjdog and Corbu like this.
    09-29-15 11:14 PM
  14. dusdal's Avatar
    Tomorrow I will be on a conf call with Investor Relations for BBRY, please let me know any questions you would like answered and I will do a follow up post with answers.

    Posted via CB10
    Any software category numbers, even just revs, would be appreciated.

    Would like to see how bbm is doing and if it's supporting itself with protected/meetings/etc



    Posted via CB10
    kadakn01, rarsen, 3MIKE and 2 others like this.
    09-29-15 11:49 PM
  15. sweet_trader's Avatar
    Tomorrow I will be on a conf call with Investor Relations for BBRY, please let me know any questions you would like answered and I will do a follow up post with answers.

    Posted via CB10
    In the last two quarters, why didn't the company issue the pre-warning about its topline and bottomline miss? In the latest quarter, the company has hardly met any metrics but the management remained silent before the official earnings day. Is there an attitude issue here with the management here by demonstrating arrogance towards the investors?
    09-30-15 12:12 AM
  16. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Tomorrow I will be on a conf call with Investor Relations for BBRY, please let me know any questions you would like answered and I will do a follow up post with answers.

    Posted via CB10
    Great initiative!!! I would like to know:

    Of the SAF revenue left (approx. 200 mio USD), how much are BIS vs. BES related. Is it more 60 vs. 40 percent or 80 vs. 20 percent or...? And can we expect the BES part to consider migrating to a subscription based EMM solution from BlackBerry? Is BlackBerry actively engaging with its clients?

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-15 12:42 AM
  17. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Now, about IoT and their efforts to connect other end points I have a less straight forward question. We know there are efforts in automotive. Are there efforts (pilots perhaps) to eventually allow car manufacturers to do OTA updates? And, would these end points (automotive, medical) need to be managed through a BES console or is that part of the BlackBerry IoT Cloud? If the latter, is it safe to assume that it's the customers responsibility to build the (either cloud-integrated or back-end) console?

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by _dimi_; 09-30-15 at 06:02 AM.
    rarsen, bbjdog, Corbu and 1 others like this.
    09-30-15 01:33 AM
  18. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Tomorrow I will be on a conf call with Investor Relations for BBRY, please let me know any questions you would like answered and I will do a follow up post with answers.

    Posted via CB10
    I'm curious about OPEX and how Android integration weighted on it.
    Any figure here would be interesting to get an idea of how this adoption can weight on HW margins.
    Of course if we could get some comparison with BB10 "costs" ... but that's a vague and tricky figure to get.

    Also, see if "GrSecurity" rings a bell related to the Q1 IP deals.
    Thanks !
    _dimi_, JLagoon, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    09-30-15 03:11 AM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Time for another FTR

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture2.png
    rarsen, awindsr, 3MIKE and 2 others like this.
    09-30-15 04:06 AM
  20. awindsr's Avatar
    In the last two quarters, why didn't the company issue the pre-warning about its topline and bottomline miss? In the latest quarter, the company has hardly met any metrics but the management remained silent before the official earnings day. Is there an attitude issue here with the management here by demonstrating arrogance towards the investors?
    I believe there was a post earlier that references these quiet points ,as someone else was ticked about the seemingly intentional silence from BlackBerry. Let's see if I have this right in that they legally aren't allowed to talk about anything that could potentially impact the stock price in a positive or negative way, as it can be considered manipulation.


    Posted via CB10
    09-30-15 06:15 AM
  21. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    We are going to discuss a lot about "security" re: the Priv and all it means about its audience/target.
    I found myself being somehow "in the dark" when it comes to evaluate the landscape of competitors' solutions.
    So you may want to read this (free registration required, so I'll only quote the visible part as an apetizer) :
    Mobile security: iOS 8 vs. Android 5 vs. BlackBerry vs. Windows Phone

    Apple's iPhone and iPad long ago pushed out the BlackBerry as the corporate standard for mobile devices, in all but the highest-security environments. Google -- whose Android platform reigns outside the corporate world -- is now trying to push out Apple, with a new effort called Android for Work. And Samsung is upping the game with a new version of its own Android security suite, Knox.
    Edit : would like to add this as food for thoughts (thx BBK !):

    "Samsung also open-sourced KNOX last year, but it's not clear yet whether the BlackBerry Priv uses it (although Android Lollipop, on which the Priv seems to be based, does use parts of it). KNOX enhances the security of each layer of Android, from hardware to applications, and has been largely effective against root exploits in the past. It has also already been approved by multiple government agencies. BlackBerry started supporting Samsung KNOX devices on its BES12 platform, so at least we know it considers KNOX a rather strong security solution for enterprise devices."
    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/and...ent,30173.html
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 09-30-15 at 08:38 AM.
    3MIKE, theRock1975 and rarsen like this.
    09-30-15 06:23 AM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
    James E Faucette

    BlackBerry Ltd
    September 30, 2015
    Follow-Up Post FQ2 Earnings

    Conversations with the company post-FQ2 focused on revised hardware breakeven levels and stagnant growth of the software business (ex-acquisitions). Our view on value is still tied to the underlying cash balance and ability to generate FCF, but disappointing data points post earnings add risk.

    Update given to breakeven levels on hardware business as sales continue to disappoint. BlackBerry mentioned on Friday in press interviews that they now expect to be able to run the hardware business profitably if they achieve 5mm unit sales annually (this was reiterated on callbacks taking place in the days following earnings). This is revised from previous guidance which had called for breakeven at 8-10mm units. Given sell through in FQ2 was 800K, this implies they need to increase hardware sales or make additional changes to the segment to achieve breakeven. The company mentioned they expect the PRIV (their new Android based phone) to help achieve those targets, and wouldn't expect to make any major changes to the hardware unit until the PRIV has 6-9mos in the market to deem whether successful. Given the phone won't be released until early FY2016, this puts any major changes to the hardware segment at 12-15 months away.

    Growth dynamics of underlying software business appear flat. Good Technology and AtHoc acquisitions were mentioned as being a part of quarterly guidance and in particular guidance that software would be up sequentially for the remaining two quarters of the fiscal year. What was less clear on the earnings call was whether software revenue ex-acquisitions would also be up Q/Q, a question the company did not know the answer to on call backs. Software results were up 19% Q/Q in FQ2, but around flat with results from FQ4. Company feedback and results over the past few quarters point to an underlying software business that is potentially not growing except for acquisitions, in-line with our prior expectations.

    Remain EW on cash balance and flexibility, but updated data points add risk to view. Our $7 PT is 4-5x our forecast for a ~$575mm/yr software and messaging business and ~$2.50/share in net cash (post AtHoc and Good acquisitions). In our view, the flexibility of the balance sheet, the opportunity to cut costs further both in the core business and acquired assets, and the ability to generate cash at reduced revenue levels outweighs poor business fundamentals for the time being, leaving us EW. However, the lack of organic software growth and the apparent willingness to give another 12-15 months worth of runway to the hardware business are disappointing and likely add risk.
    09-30-15 07:02 AM
  23. W Hoa's Avatar
    In our view, the flexibility of the balance sheet, the opportunity to cut costs further both in the core business and acquired assets, and the ability to generate cash at reduced revenue levels outweighs poor business fundamentals for the time being, leaving us EW.
    Do you see that subtle shift......he's gone from back handed compliments to left handed compliments. Up today?
    bbjdog, 3MIKE, theRock1975 and 4 others like this.
    09-30-15 07:10 AM
  24. bizzarothor's Avatar
    Your timing couldn't be better, it is end of quarter and you can see biotech is cheap too. I stayed home to do some more buying myself. Super low volume on BBRY too. Nice.
    Hey Morgan! No way you're not using your Passport to buy and sell at times??!!

    I've done it a few times and while it does not provide the same screen real estate one is used to get when looking at analytical, the screen of the passport is plenty if you are going into your account on a mission!

    Take this remark with a grain of salt, obviously. I recently had to try and work on and excel doc on my Passport, and I don't think it's yet optimized to make it a seamless experience in comparison to a desktop. In fact, in spite of my IT inclined abilities, I could not get the changes done up to my satisfaction.

    I wonder how the Nanhealth project is going to push on some of theses existing limitations...

    Anyways, I have been just an observer recently, and even refrained from my usual Alea Jacta Est going into the ER, hoping for better results! I know you keep a positive outlook on BBRY, but I must say I am starting to have some doubts... am sorry to say.

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-15 07:50 AM
  25. theRock1975's Avatar
    From ITWorld yesterday: Apple, Microsoft wield privacy as marketing tool | ITworld

    Check out Apple's new Privacy website:
    Privacy - Apple

    Looks familiar?
    Mr BBRY, rarsen and Superfly_FR like this.
    09-30-15 08:25 AM
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