View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. Corbu's Avatar
    09-28-15 08:11 PM
  2. kadakn01's Avatar
    Over the weekend I took some time and reviewed the financial results of the last 5 quarters. I wanted to see whether there is substantial improvement in the business and whether Chen is able to turn the ship around...

    I compared the operating profit/loss of the last five quarters (without the adjustments for the debentures):

    Q2: (31)
    Q3: 11
    Q4: (56)
    Q1: (68)
    Q2: (195)

    Since Q3 of the last year you can see that the operating loss is increasing every year. There is no improvement in the results, it's quite the contrary. If we look closer it is even worse. The profit in Q2 last year was only achieved because Chen managed it to reduce the operating costs from $456 Mio. to $399 Mio. In Q3 he reduced the costs further to $374 Mio. However, since Q3 last year the operating costs are more or less stable at 380 Mio. What I believe is that there is no more potential to cut cost without changing the structure of the company as we know it today, in other words, without selling off parts of the company.
    Since it seems not possible for Chen to reduce the cost further every decrease in revenue will affect the operating profit/loss directly. In this quarter revenue fell short by $170 Mio. compared to last quarter. The operating loss increased by 130 Mio. ($40 Mio. in reduction of Cost of Goods sold).


    Sorry for this long post. This is where I think BlackBerry stands today. If you disagree let me know! I would appreciate other opinions if they are backed up with numbers... :-)
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry-financial.png

    Working Capital has gone up since last year. Accounts receivable went down but so did Accounts Payable so they paid that down. Improved balance sheet, not worse

    Also reducing account payable and selling PP&E is considered operations, and this has no impact on OPS or cash from from operations.

    On a separate note, with respect to intangible assets, as you can see below the net impact of amortization (typically straight line) was about a 200M hit to the book value. However licensing the patents now is a smart move as the value of that patent could have an impairment or other, see below:

    Impairment. If a patent no longer provides value, or a reduced level of value, recognize an impairment to reduce or eliminate the carrying amount of the asset.

    Derecognition. Once the company is no longer making use of the patented idea, the asset can be derecognized by crediting the balance in the patent asset account and debiting the balance in the accumulated amortization account. If the asset has not been fully amortized at the time of derecognition, then any remaining unamortized balance must be recorded as a loss.


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-intangible-assetbbry.jpg


    And then lastly from a pure risk standpoint of BBRY, on the last report:

    Purchase orders with contract manufacturers totaled approximately $248
    million at the end of the second quarter.
    Compare that to where they stood a few years back when they launched BB10 (Z10 devices) , and what almost happened (failed takeover by fairfax and almost Chapter 11 or its Canadian counterpart, the Companies Creditors Arrangement Act)

    From the Q4 2013
    Purchase obligations and commitments amounted to approximately $6.3 billion as at March 2, 2013 and then further down on the report:

    The Company faces substantial inventory and other asset risk, including risks related to its ability to sell its existing inventory of BlackBerry 10 products, manage its purchase obligations with its manufacturing partners and the potential for additional charges related to its inventory. Any of these occurrences could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition.
    Last edited by kadakn01; 09-28-15 at 11:16 PM.
    morganplus8, jxnb, rarsen and 11 others like this.
    09-28-15 10:23 PM
  3. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	bbry financial.png 
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    Working Capital has gone up since last year. Accounts receivable went down but so did Accounts Payable so they paid that down. Improved balance sheet, not worse

    Also reducing account payable and selling PP&E is considered operations, and this has no impact on OPS or cash from from operations.
    I was waiting for someone to respond to that post. But perhaps even in greater detail as I am novice to reading balancesheets too and would love to understand what was right and what was wrong in original post.

    Morgan, I think, knows all about reading financial statements. Perhaps, you can respond. Point out what's correct and what's not.





    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR and morganplus8 like this.
    09-28-15 10:55 PM
  4. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Blackphone 2 now on sale in North America for $800

    https://www.silentcircle.com/product...tions/devices/

    they seem to be doing a better job of show-casing/selling/marketing their privacy features (eventhough, I am sure, they are inferior to BlackBerry PRIV). Perhaps BlackBerry can rip-off all their marketing material and make their own using their stuff as inspiration of sorts
    09-29-15 12:16 AM
  5. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    Re MOBL...as I've said before, drive the stock down toward cash levels and then do a hostile...nothing to lose from being aggressive at this point...don't need it so why pay current price?

    Re: GOOD...nobody seems to be factoring in the end in payments from BBRY to GOOD for the remaining amortized payments on the lawsuit patent settlement...this actually is still around $140 or $150M I believe, so BBRY actually paid a lot less than it looks on the surface

    RE: buyback - we're now at a 21 M share buyback and I believe they will go full throttle with shares at this price.- anyone have the details re max daily purchase amount?
    Mr BBRY, 3MIKE, rarsen and 6 others like this.
    09-29-15 02:02 AM
  6. kadakn01's Avatar
    Re MOBL...as I've said before, drive the stock down toward cash levels and then do a hostile...nothing to lose from being aggressive at this point...don't need it so why pay current price?

    Re: GOOD...nobody seems to be factoring in the end in payments from BBRY to GOOD for the remaining amortized payments on the lawsuit patent settlement...this actually is still around $140 or $150M I believe, so BBRY actually paid a lot less than it looks on the surface

    RE: buyback - we're now at a 21 M share buyback and I believe they will go full throttle with shares at this price.- anyone have the details re max daily purchase amount?
    Unfortunately, the patent payment was an upfront one to GOOD, so it is actually GOOD that has lower revenues going forward (see my earlier post, it is about 25M a year they were recognizing from BBRY), but the deal did include assumption of some debt that GOOD had (55M note and warrant liability of about 25M) in addition to cash of about 25M, so net net is was better at around 400M, than the 425M stated. Hence this is why Chen stated 160M of annual revenues vs. the approx 200M+ they had as of the S-1 filed earlier in the year.

    578,619 shares per day is the maximum they can purchase

    Agree 100% with respect to MOBL!

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by kadakn01; 09-29-15 at 07:53 AM.
    Corbu, foxdog0007, 3MIKE and 16 others like this.
    09-29-15 07:37 AM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    09-29-15 07:54 AM
  8. notfanboy's Avatar
    This is one good looking phone. A couple of friends are in the market for a smartphone. I suggested that they should wait a couple of months, and that they wait for reviews for this phone to come out before they make a buying decision.
    09-29-15 08:24 AM
  9. morganplus8's Avatar
    This is one good looking phone. A couple of friends are in the market for a smartphone. I suggested that they should wait a couple of months, and that they wait for reviews for this phone to come out before they make a buying decision.
    I agree with you, its an all touch phone with a killer onscreen key board experience or you can slide the physical key board out and go that route. I really like the screen size too. It would be the best phone on the planet if it incorporates BB 10 experience too. Might be fun to have.
    09-29-15 08:33 AM
  10. Uzi's Avatar
    I agree with you, its an all touch phone with a killer onscreen key board experience or you can slide the physical key board out and go that route. I really like the screen size too. It would be the best phone on the planet if it incorporates BB 10 experience too. Might be fun to have.
    And it has all apps..
    09-29-15 08:36 AM
  11. morganplus8's Avatar
    Unfortunately, the patent payment was an upfront one to GOOD, so it is actually GOOD that has lower revenues going forward (see my earlier post, it is about 25M a year they were recognizing from BBRY), but the deal did include assumption of some debt that GOOD had (55M note and warrant liability of about 25M) in addition to cash of about 25M, so net net is was better at around 400M, than the 425M stated. Hence this is why Chen stated 160M of annual revenues vs. the approx 200M+ they had as of the S-1 filed earlier in the year.

    578,619 shares per day is the maximum they can purchase

    Agree 100% with respect to MOBL!

    Posted via CB10
    Excellent post! I would let the 3 lawsuits against them, take MOBL down and compete against them while holding onto our funds. BlackBerry can crush them for far less then it would cost to purchase them. Just my thoughts of course!

    Today is the last day of the quarter for Funds to square their accounts, if you wanted to get rid of BBRY on the books before the end of the quarter today is the day to do it. Let's see how that goes for pharma too.
    09-29-15 08:40 AM
  12. morganplus8's Avatar
    I was waiting for someone to respond to that post. But perhaps even in greater detail as I am novice to reading balancesheets too and would love to understand what was right and what was wrong in original post.

    Morgan, I think, knows all about reading financial statements. Perhaps, you can respond. Point out what's correct and what's not.





    Posted via CB10
    chrysaurora!!

    I'm not an accountant but my MBA is in international finance so it was chock full of numbers. I didn't want to respond to that message but I felt compiled to do so because he spent some serious time going over the numbers. Rather than breakdown the process for right-siding the business model, I mentioned that you really need to see cash climb and risk been averted to know BB was being managed well. Chen had to pull in inventory, build cash, reduce operating expenses, apply tax credits (refunds from prior years) reduce head count in non critical areas, sell off assets that weren't supporting the turn around, etc., that's a lot of balls in the air. It wasn't, and still isn't at this time, a case of selling more handsets to right-side the company. If he have held onto advertising levels at their current "Heins levels", he would have killed the company. What I'm suggesting here is that he needed to excel in all areas of the turn around plan to truly save this company. We saw some wonderful moves taken, including the sale of the iCloud venture that cost BlackBerry millions and led nowhere.

    Suffice it to say, working capital is the heart of the operation and Chen built upon cash from as many sources as possible. And so today, we can handle not only a trial balloon into Android, we can launch additional phones and hope one of them sticks. It is difficult to find a company in the public market with access to so much cash and credit on hand and some large shareholders who support Chen's efforts.

    Re: BBRY - Today we would be having a great day if we can finish up trading without dropping below yesterday's lows in stock price.
    Last edited by morganplus8; 09-29-15 at 09:21 AM.
    09-29-15 09:06 AM
  13. georg4BB's Avatar
    And it has all apps..
    ... and because everyone only wants apps apps apps and gives a **** about privacy, productivity and security, only Android and IOS as mobile OSs will survive. Forgive me, that I can't be happy about this.
    09-29-15 10:10 AM
  14. sidhuk's Avatar
    Morganplus8. Markets are down and so is BlackBerry. As they say buy when every one else is scared.
    I bought some BlackBerry last week and want to buy more. What else is out there under your radar that makes you attempting? So that it is a good comparison. To BlackBerry Lol.
    Thanks in advance.

    Posted via CB10
    09-29-15 10:14 AM
  15. randall2580's Avatar
    Curious to watch today's Google announcement - remember there was a rumor a little while ago that Google might feature the then "Venice" in their presentation today. Let's hope that this one turns out to be true - would be a nice mention and free marketing.
    09-29-15 10:29 AM
  16. sixaxis_ms's Avatar
    Where can we listen to that announcement ?

    Posted via CB10
    09-29-15 10:39 AM
  17. plasmid_boy's Avatar

    Morganplus8. Markets are down and so is BlackBerry. As they say buy when every one else is scared.
    I bought some BlackBerry last week and want to buy more. What else is out there under your radar that makes you attempting? So that it is a good comparison. To BlackBerry Lol.
    Thanks in advance.

    Posted via CB10
    Welcome back man. But where is your partner in crime?
    09-29-15 10:53 AM
  18. keithhackneysmullet's Avatar
    Where can we listen to that announcement ?

    Posted via CB10
    https://twit.tv/live

    Posted via CB10
    3MIKE likes this.
    09-29-15 10:57 AM
  19. sidhuk's Avatar
    Welcome back man. But where is your partner in crime?
    LoL, on way out he was called next. may be couple more days.
    09-29-15 10:59 AM
  20. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    Unfortunately, the patent payment was an upfront one to GOOD, so it is actually GOOD that has lower revenues going forward (see my earlier post, it is about 25M a year they were recognizing from BBRY), but the deal did include assumption of some debt that GOOD had (55M note and warrant liability of about 25M) in addition to cash of about 25M, so net net is was better at around 400M, than the 425M stated. Hence this is why Chen stated 160M of annual revenues vs. the approx 200M+ they had as of the S-1 filed earlier in the year.

    578,619 shares per day is the maximum they can purchase

    Agree 100% with respect to MOBL!

    Posted via CB10
    Okay, thanks. So you're sure the amount remaining from the original payment is not in escrow? There's limited public financial information from Good, so it's hard for me to tell for sure. Why are they amortizing the revenues if it was a one-time payment?

    Posted via CB10
    09-29-15 11:00 AM
  21. sixaxis_ms's Avatar
    https://twit.tv/live

    Posted via CB10
    thanks! watching it through youtube, interesting feature that Live chat, wonder if they are going to mention their work with Blackberry.

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, rarsen and Mr BBRY like this.
    09-29-15 11:16 AM
  22. robmac81's Avatar
    Not sure if this was posted:
    http://www.cantechletter.com/2015/09...-tracking-box/

    Posted via CB10
    bbjdog, 3MIKE, rarsen and 1 others like this.
    09-29-15 11:35 AM
  23. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I'm really curious what you meant with the iCloud venture that cost BlackBerry millions but led nowhere, Morgan?! You're really testing my knowledge on BlackBerry corporate history .. :-) Was thinking Newbay at first, but probably not..

    Posted via CB10
    09-29-15 11:46 AM
  24. La Emperor's Avatar
    LoL, on way out he was called next. may be couple more days.
    One of you two must be "little johnny " in real life....lol
    sidhuk and 3MIKE like this.
    09-29-15 11:50 AM
  25. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Curious to watch today's Google announcement - remember there was a rumor a little while ago that Google might feature the then "Venice" in their presentation today. Let's hope that this one turns out to be true - would be a nice mention and free marketing.
    here :

    Only reason I'm watching the MOST BORING PRESENTATION EVER.
    Man, where did the excitment of young and creative guys went ?
    I mean they cannot stop saying "Excited" and only look like depressed used C level in jeans and Tshirt.
    Gasp; we won't even get that fresh juice as a bonus.
    morganplus8, Corbu, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    09-29-15 11:51 AM
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