View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1107. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. bspence87's Avatar
    Nothing, but it brings the idea of securing data to the forefront.

    Posted via CB10
    Especially at a time when everything is transitioning to mobile.
    07-27-15 07:16 PM
  2. Corbu's Avatar
    07-27-15 07:21 PM
  3. spiller's Avatar
    This confuses me.

    In a free marketplace they can charge what the market can bear. No?
    If the price to produce and thus for Canadian companies to purchase gas for distribution at the pumps is much lower since Oil is much lower (not saying how much lower gas should cost), and all of the companies are charging the same price per litre now and making much higher profits, then that must be price fixing. Or they all just decided they were going to take 17% profit instead of 6% profit per litre sold at the same time (for example)? That would be collusion and price fixing.
    07-27-15 07:45 PM
  4. Corbu's Avatar
    From CrackBerry Channel:

    A WatchDox by BlackBerry Live Product Demo

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-c00012b19_d8eb10f0-34bf-11e5-b256-0200ac11f44d.png

    Register for 10AM - https://cc.readytalk.com/cc/s/regist...d=679ue3qi3ui0

    Register for 8PM - https://cc.readytalk.com/cc/s/regist...d=4r601znv3k4k
    07-27-15 08:19 PM
  5. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    Can you imagine though...a $200 Moto G... with BB security ?
    This may be the "new" golden feature that everyone will be chasing and a must have for their device.

    I believe that this is the end game for BlackBerry. Secure the competition (for a price), but also offer a parallel solution for ultimate end-to-end security. This is why I am confident that BlackBerry will never drop their phones all together. Even if they end up launching 1 per year (ugh)!

    Many of us still hold our original opinions that BlackBerry should have launched one touch and one key-phone in parallel from the start. One year passes, rinse/wash/repeat. The only exception would be a special edition of the same model (Porsche).

    Z10/Q10 + Porsche editions + colors
    Z30/Classic + Porsche + colors
    Z50/Passport, etc.

    ... but that's another thread....


    Still holdin'.
    3MIKE, bungaboy, bbjdog and 3 others like this.
    07-27-15 09:33 PM
  6. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    We've discussed this many times before. All BlackBerry devices should be sold at premium prices because all models can be secured and managed to the same degree. All well beyond those of all competitors' phones. But as we all acknowledge, very, very few people recognize that as a premium feature. Even on Crackberry, many discount security and privacy as a god-given right, that they should have but not have to pay for. Until the masses change their sentiment, BlackBerry can't charge a premium because not enough people value it, and governments around the world don't want the masses to have it.

    Since BlackBerry is the only one with this focus, it leaves them susceptible to singling out as we've seen in Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, etc. Plus the masses in their self-indulgent ignorance falsely equate BlackBerry's level of security with unsubstantiated marketing talk of security (Blackphone, Turing phone, etc. ).

    I don't think even the US DoD would accept a $1,000 BlackBerry phone over a $1,000 Boeing Black phone.

    Posted via CB10
    This is one argument where everyone is right:

    BlackBerry can secure Android and even Apple or Windows devices, and charge a modest nominal fee. Here is the quantity argument satified.
    BlackBerry can provide their standard lineup, even at 2/year. Here is the quality argument.
    BlackBerry can provide the highest level (beyond BlackPhone), by offering their full armada of services. Here is the Security argument.

    I think BlackBerry is at a critical time where if they drop their pants (I was gonna say shorts, but...) they will show that they are folding in. If they hang in there with the current price structure, market will soon get it. It's already happening.
    Before Snowden, people were wide open with their personal lives on Facebook, Twitter, etc. Since then, we have seen a strong tapering of what people are willing to share. This direction won't stop, and BlackBerry should not sell themselves out at this pinacle.

    Sell BlackBerry services for consumer devices, and go all out for Corporations, Enterprise, and Government.

    http://forums.crackberry.com/showthread.php?p=11815543
    Last edited by Bacon Munchers; 07-27-15 at 10:07 PM.
    07-27-15 09:55 PM
  7. jojowan's Avatar
    Wowwowow!!

    I can't believe it!

    *BLACKBERRY RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY

    Posted via CB10
    07-28-15 05:50 AM
  8. bspence87's Avatar
    Haha, I was going to ask what the big news was. Stock up 3.5% PM
    bungaboy and Soumaila Somtore like this.
    07-28-15 06:07 AM
  9. jojowan's Avatar
    Wowwowow!!

    I can't believe it!

    *BLACKBERRY RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY

    Posted via CB10
    From his tone, it seems that he is quite unwilling to upgrade the stock. Probably pressure from his senior? Maybe they find that there is more upside from short squeezing than shorting it continuously.

    He finally admits that the company is cash generating instead of cash burning. But did John say that the 600m sofware target has become a 12-18mth target? Think he got it wrong again.

    FYI only, the following is the summary:


    While there is no evidence of a fundamental business turnaround, BlackBerry has flexibility with cash and opportunity for opex cuts that create value. Upgrading to EW, price target remains $7.
    *
    Thesis plays out as balance sheet and opex flexibility provide substantial value. We estimate that BBRY's cash balance is worth ~$3.5- $3.75/share. Additionally, the company has been adding to its cash balance for the past 6 quarters through opex cuts, ODM deals, tax refunds, asset sales and IP licensing sales. While many one-time benefits the company could pull forward (e.g. asset sales, licensing) have been realized, we believe the company still has significant opportunity to add to that cash balance through headcount reductions or other reallocation of resources. It is reported that the company recently underwent a reorganization; while acknowledging, the company did not disclose headcount involved. With over half of BBRY's market cap cash, its flexibility to add more cash makes us cautious on further being UW.
    *
    Business fundamentals remain poor, software reinvention is piecemeal, not platform. Our upgrade to EW is not due to improving business fundamentals or a software strategy that is becoming successful. BlackBerry is on track to building a $300mm/year software business mostly through acquisitions not uptake of their EZ Pass platform. While the company has not commented publicly on further deals, and we have no knowledge of any, it seems reasonable to assume the company could continue this strategy (e.g. four software acquisitions in the last year) to continue growing its software revenue. It is not unreasonable that this business could become a $400mm/year software business after full-year impact of software acquisitions to date and some EZ Pass conversions. A 4-5x revenue software multiple applied to revenue base ascribes ~$3-3.5/share value(we ascribe no value to the hardware or services businesses).We note that this is far short of the $600mm software/messaging business the company put out as a target at their last Analyst Day in November 2014. While the company has not formally moved away from this target, CEO John Chen has begun making press remarks that the goal is a 12-18 mo target vs a FY16 goal as originally laid out.
    *
    Upgrading to EW, keeping $7 PT. Given BlackBerry's growing cash balance, our $7 PT implies an enterprise value of $1.8bn, or around 4-5xa $400mm/yr software and messaging business. This $400mm is far short of the companies $600mm/yr target for FY16, but more in-line with what we believe is achievable. The flexibility the company has to make more opex cuts to add to $3.50-$3.75/share in cash outweighs poor business fundamentals, resulting in our upgrade to EW from UW.

    Posted via CB10
    07-28-15 06:17 AM
  10. W Hoa's Avatar
    This is a rare sight:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-trending.jpg
    07-28-15 06:26 AM
  11. messier338's Avatar
    Morgan Stanley just showed Chen who is the boss in Wall Street.
    Like the other poster said blackberry should go private like Dell. Get out of this US market.
    07-28-15 06:30 AM
  12. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    .

    Are you all sitting down for this?


    BlackBerry Upgraded at Morgan Stanley (BBRY)

    July 28th, 2015
    by Mark Watkins


    BBlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) was upgraded by equities research analysts at Morgan Stanley from an underweight rating to an equal weight rating in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday, TheFlyOnTheWall.com reports.

    Shares of BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) opened at 7.28 on Tuesday. BlackBerry has a 1-year low of $7.15 and a 1-year high of $12.63. The stocks 50-day moving average is $8.37 and its 200-day moving average is $9.61. The companys market cap is $3.85 billion.

    BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, June 23rd. The smartphone producer reported ($0.05) earnings per share for the quarter, missing the analysts consensus estimate of ($0.03) by $0.02. The company had revenue of $658.00 million for the quarter. During the same quarter last year, the company posted ($0.11) earnings per share. BlackBerrys revenue was down 31.9% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts predict that BlackBerry will post $-0.23 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

    Several other equities analysts have also recently issued reports on the company. Oppenheimer reiterated a market perform rating on shares of BlackBerry in a research note on Monday, July 13th. Canaccord Genuity restated a hold rating and issued a $8.00 price target on shares of BlackBerry in a research report on Wednesday, July 8th. RBC Capital lowered their price objective on BlackBerry from $11.00 to $10.00 and set a sector perform rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, July 8th. Wells Fargo & Co. restated a market perform rating on shares of BlackBerry in a research note on Friday, July 3rd. Finally, Macquarie reduced their price objective on BlackBerry from $8.50 to $8.00 and set an underperform rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, July 2nd. Seven research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, nineteen have assigned a hold rating, two have assigned a buy rating and one has given a strong buy rating to the companys stock. The stock has an average rating of Hold and an average price target of $9.70.

    BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY) is a provider of cellular communications and services. The Company is engaged mainly in the provision of the BlackBerry wireless solution, consisting of service, smartphones and software. The Organization s four areas of business are Devices company, Enterprise Services, BlackBerry Technology Solutions (BTS) company and Messaging. The Devices company of the Companys is focused on delivering products that were smartphone. The Enterprise Services business of blackBerry offers enterprise services and products. The Organization s BTS company includes five components: QNX Software Systems Limited (QNX), Certicom, Paratek, the BlackBerry Internet of Things (IoT) Platform, and Intellectual Property and Patent Licensing (IPPL). The Businesss Messaging company is engaged in providing BlackBerry Messenger (BBM), the Business s immediate mobile to mobile private messaging service. The Company offers a portfolio of smartphone products to both enterprise and consumer markets.
    07-28-15 07:15 AM
  13. Corbu's Avatar
    There we go...

    MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
    James E Faucette

    July 28, 2015

    BlackBerry Ltd.

    Flexibility Outweighs Fundamentals; Upgrading to EW

    Industry View: Cautious
    Stock Rating: Equal-weight
    Price Target : $7.00

    While there is no evidence of a fundamental business turnaround, BlackBerry has flexibility with cash and opportunity for opex cuts that create value. Upgrading to EW, price target remains $7.

    Thesis plays out as balance sheet and opex flexibility provide substantial value. We estimate that BBRY's cash balance is worth ~$3.5- $3.75/share. Additionally, the company has been adding to its cash balance for the past 6 quarters through opex cuts, ODM deals, tax refunds, asset sales and IP licensing sales. While many one-time benefits the company could pull forward (e.g. asset sales, licensing) have been realized, we believe the company still has significant opportunity to add to that cash balance through headcount reductions or other reallocation of resources. It is reported that the company recently underwent a reorganization; while acknowledging, the company did not disclose headcount involved. With over half of BBRY's market cap cash, its flexibility to add more cash makes us cautious on further being UW.

    Business fundamentals remain poor, software reinvention is piecemeal, not platform. Our upgrade to EW is not due to improving business fundamentals or a software strategy that is becoming successful. BlackBerry is on track to building a $300mm/year software business mostly through acquisitions not uptake of their EZ Pass platform. While the company has not commented publicly on further deals, and we have no knowledge of any, it seems reasonable to assume the company could continue this strategy (e.g. four software acquisitions in the last year) to continue growing its software revenue. It is not unreasonable that this business could become a $400mm/year software business after full-year impact of software acquisitions to date and some EZ Pass conversions. A 4-5x revenue software multiple applied to revenue base ascribes ~$3-3.5/share value (we ascribe no value to the hardware or services businesses). We note that this is far short of the $600mm software/messaging business the company put out as a target at their last Analyst Day in November 2014. While the company has not formally moved away from this target, CEO John Chen has begun making press remarks that the goal is a 12-18 mo target vs a FY16 goal as originally laid out.

    Upgrading to EW, keeping $7PT. Given BlackBerry's growing cash balance, our $7 PT implies an enterprise value of $1.8bn, or around 4-5x a $400mm/yr software and messaging business. This $400mm is far short of the companies $600mm/yr target for FY16, but more in-line with what we believe is achievable. The flexibility the company has to make more opex cuts to add to $3.50-$3.75/share in cash outweighs poor business fundamentals, resulting in our upgrade to EW from UW.

    Risk Reward

    Valuation has moved ahead of business prospects

    Price Target $7 4-5x Software+Messaging Revenue (in-line with software universe)

    Bull $11 6x Bull Case Software Revenue
    Acquires major mobile security software vendor, able to accelerate sales. Acquires a mobile security software vendor that has meaningful share and revenue in the market. Grows this business by converting remaining base of BB7 users to acquired software platform. Able to become a ~$700mm revenue business, about double current size. Achieve a better software revenue multiple on account of growth and secular mobility theme.

    Base $7 4-5x Base Case Software Revenue
    Build software business through small acquisitions, continue to accumulate cash. The company continues to make small acquisitions that help the company become a $400-500mm software company. Continue to cut opex in order to generate cash for acquisitions. Preserve existing cash balance.

    Bear $4 2x Bear Case Software Revenue
    Revenue from acquired assets does not continue, cash balance deteriorates. Revenue generated from acquired assets falls as subscribers leave. Service revenue falls off quicker than expected, company does not make necessary opex cuts and cash balance deteriorates. Trades as a minimal software multiple.

    Investment Thesis

    CEO Chen will aggressively cut OPEX to preserve assets, allowing for future optionality.
    Pressure will continue to mount on hardware platforms in the form of both lower pricing and lengthening life cycles, with value creation opportunities primarily in software.
    Cash balance worth $3.5 - $3.75/share.

    Key Value Drivers
    Can the company stabilize its user base? We are skeptical.
    Will the company be able to achieve ~$600mm software & messaging revenue in FY16? We think that number is not achievable. Could become a $400mm business through acquisitions to date and small contribution from EZ Pass conversions.
    Is there room for a third or fourth independent player in the MDM/messaging platform market? There are already more advanced vendors in the market with proven solutions for heterogeneous device environments.

    Potential Catalysts
    Signs of success with its various turnaround initiatives.
    Acquisition offers avenue to monetize remaining BB7 users.
    Break-even on hardware business.

    Risks to Achieving Price Target
    Management isn’t prepared to further expand operating expense cuts; drains cash.
    Makes major acquisition that burns cash without adding value.
    Low multiple ascribed if just reselling acquired company software.

    Analysis

    Balance Sheet and Opex Flexibility Provide Substantial Optionality

    Cash balance worth about $3.5/share and growing. BlackBerry has been steadily growing its cash balance since John Chen became CEO in November of 2013. Through a series of restructurings, ODM deals, real estate sales, tax returns and licensing deals, the company has been able to accumulate ~$3.25bn of cash on its balance sheet. While it has $1.25bn of debt (book value is higher, but would be paid in equity), the $2bn of net cash it has is worth approximately $3.50 -$3.75/share. John Chen appears committed to generating cash flow, meaning the value of the cash balance could continue to grow.

    Potential for opex cuts gives company opportunity to add to cash balance. John Chen noted on the Q1FY16 call that in his opinion ~$100-200mm needed to be diverted to software from hardware. Additionally, while the company has not disclosed headcount, it has acknowledged it recently went through another reorganization (that likely reduced headcount). Given new ODM agreements and amount of R&D headcount that is still allocated to hardware (we estimate at least 2/3rds), we think the company has potential to cut further headcount that could reduce costs and help it become cash flow and operating break-even as the revenue base shrinks. At the left we show the relative number of employees at various tech companies, showing that BlackBerry likely still has opex it can cut.

    Licensing deals give short-term cash boost; but reduce long-term value. BlackBerry surprised investors on the Q1'FY16 earnings call by reporting two licensing deals that contributed $65mm to revenue. It also announced that there was more revenue to come from licensing in the coming quarters. We estimate the company could generate ~$150mm from these licensing deals (at really no cost), helping further grow the cash balance. We would note that by cross-licensing this IP, Blackberry reduces the value of the IP in any sort of sale or liquidation, essentially bringing forward that value.

    Convert value minimized at these share prices. BlackBerry issued a $1.25bn convertible bond in November of 2013. This convertible was expensive (e.g. interest is 6%) and it has boosters if the company were to be sold (e.g. payout of 115% face value). Given the strike price of the convertible is $10, at a $7 share price most of the equity value of the convertible is reduced lowering dilution potential.

    Fundamentals Not Turning Around

    Software platform strategy not playing out; building software revenue through piecemeal acquisitions. BlackBerry's goals of $600mm software and messaging revenue set out at the November 2014 Analyst Day are increasingly looking unachievable. While the company has not formally stepped away from this guidance, CEO John Chen has given recent press interviews that the $600mm is more like a 12-18mo target, not something that is likely to be achieved in FY16. The company has also changed its messaging to say that acquisitions or licensing revenue should be added to make this goal, which was not the messaging last fall. The growth from the ~$250mm base was supposed to come from sales of EZ Pass, which were to start at the beginning of CY15. Given upwards of 6.8mm licensees signed up during the free trial period (which we noted was no commitment), the fact that software revenue has only grown approximately $15mm a quarter since November (despite 3-4 additional acquisitions) means that not many of those licensees converted into paying customers. We believe their software revenue to date is primarily the accumulation of past acquisitions.

    Devices and services still in secular decline; but value had already been written off. In our downgrade last fall, we ascribed no value to the hardware and services business, despite the fact that new Classic and Passport devices were about to be released. Devices and services have continued to fall and our change in rating to EW continues to ascribe no value to these businesses.

    Can likely grow software revenue through acquisitions, becoming a low growth software vendor. Given that most of BlackBerry's software revenue is from acquisitions, it appears likely that it can keep servicing these customers and accumulate the ~$250 - $300mm of revenue they generate annually. Saying it another way, even if the subscriber base of BlackBerry continues to drop (see above for slowing device sales), there is likely a core base of revenue this company generates that will be ongoing. Given BlackBerry has in general been buying software assets for <3-4x revenue, it is plausible that it could add another $100-$200mm to this base for another $300-800mm, helping the company achieve a $500mm annual revenue base with relatively little dent to its cash balance (particularly if it continues to be cash flow-positive).

    Valuation Has Caught Up with BlackBerry's Opportunity

    When we downgraded BlackBerry in Novermber 2014, we did so believing the market was ascribing too much value to the software business (at the time market was ascribing a value at ~7x EV/16e software and messaging revenue at a $10.76 share price). We now believe the market has largely incorporated a more reasonable valuation for BlackBerry's software business at our PT (~4-5x EV/16e software and messaging revenue).

    Value of Business Under Various Software Revenue Base / Multiple Scenarios. We believe the 4-5x the market is ascribing to an ~$400mm software business is about fair, given the comparables below. However, even if the multiple or size of the business were to change, there is relatively small downside to the share price given the almost $3.5-3.75/share in cash.

    Risks to Our Call

    Returns to cash burn. As mentioned earlier, BlackBerry stopped the cash burn it had been experiencing during much of FY14 once John Chen became CEO. While ODM deals and reduced inventory levels have reduced the cash burn of the hardware/devices businesses, the company could still revert back to burning cash if the services revenue were to decline faster than expected. We believe in this instance the company would cut headcount, but do acknowledge, that as over half of the value of the company, the preservation of the cash balance is key to preserving share value.

    Channel ramp faces difficulties. Our checks to date found BlackBerry's channel relationships are still not fully in place which is likely necessary to reaching management's $500mm software revenue target (ex one-time license sales). Our conversations suggest EZ Pass/BES12 faces an uphill battle against other EMM/MDM vendors in non-BlackBerry accounts, while remaining BlackBerry environments are undergoing lengthy sales cycles as they contemplate long-term plans for their mobile environments. Combined with significant pricing pressure, we think management needs to significantly broaden its reseller base to capture a sufficient number of subscribers to reach its software target.

    Makes a major acquisition that takes away cash, but doesn't add significant revenue. With over $3bn in cash, BlackBerry has a significant cash balance that it could use for acquisitions, in keeping with its recent history. While the company has been disciplined to date on acquisitions and prices paid, if it were to use a big part of its cash balance on an asset that did not generate significant revenue or earnings, it could be value-destructive to the business.
    Greened, rarsen, Mr BBRY and 1 others like this.
    07-28-15 07:16 AM
  14. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    .


    BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY) Short Interest Update


    July 27, 2015 by Stephanie Lee

    BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY), A increase of 3,468,260 shares or 3.4% was observed in the short interest of BlackBerry Limited The interest on July 15,2015 came in at 105,160,649 shares and as per the average daily trading of 9,653,858 shares, the days to cover are 11. The increased interest is 19.9% of the floated shares. The data of June 30,2015 put the interest at 101,692,389 shares. The information was released by Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc (FINRA) on July 24th .

    BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY) witnessed a decline in the market cap on Monday as its shares dropped 0.68% or 0.05 points. After the session commenced at $7.2, the stock reached the higher end at $7.34 while it hit a low of $7.1501. With the volume soaring to 8,484,924 shares, the last trade was called at $7.28. The company has a 52-week high of $12.63. The company has a market cap of $3,856 million and there are 529,657,000 shares in outstanding. The 52-week low of the share price is $7.2036.

    BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY) stock has received a short term price target of $ 9.54 from 19 Analyst. The share price can be expected to fluctuate from the mean short term target, can be seen from the standard deviation reading of $2.11. The higher estimate of target price is $14 , while the lower price target estimate is $6

    The company shares have dropped -26.33% from its 1 Year high price. On Jan 14, 2015, the shares registered one year high at $12.63 and the one year low was seen on Jul 24, 2015. The 50-Day Moving Average price is $8.44 and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at $9.65. The company has received recommendation from many analysts. 1 analysts have rated the company as a strong buy. The shares have been rated as hold from 19 Wall Street Analysts. 1 analysts have suggested buy for the company. Underperform rating was given by 12 analyst.

    BlackBerry Limited, formerly Research In Motion Limited, is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software and services, it provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service (SMS), Internet and intranet-based applications and browsing. The Companys technology also enables an array of third party developers and manufacturers to enhance their products and services through software development kits, wireless connectivity to data and third-party support programs. In September 2014, the Company acquired Movirtu, provider of virtual identity solutions for mobile operators that allows multiple numbers to be active on single device.
    07-28-15 07:21 AM
  15. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I love Morgan Stanley. :eek

    Classically Posted.
    3MIKE, awindsr, bungaboy and 4 others like this.
    07-28-15 07:51 AM
  16. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20150728_065232.jpg

    Classically Posted.
    07-28-15 07:55 AM
  17. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Had to fumigate...even for tongue in cheek, that one was too much. LOL.

    Classically Posted.
    07-28-15 07:56 AM
  18. spiller's Avatar
    From his tone, it seems that he is quite unwilling to upgrade the stock. Probably pressure from his senior? Maybe they find that there is more upside from short squeezing than shorting it continuously.

    He finally admits that the company is cash generating instead of cash burning. But did John say that the 600m sofware target has become a 12-18mth target? Think he got it wrong again.

    FYI only, the following is the summary:


    While there is no evidence of a fundamental business turnaround, BlackBerry has flexibility with cash and opportunity for opex cuts that create value. Upgrading to EW, price target remains $7.
    *
    Thesis plays out as balance sheet and opex flexibility provide substantial value. We estimate that BBRY's cash balance is worth ~$3.5- $3.75/share. Additionally, the company has been adding to its cash balance for the past 6 quarters through opex cuts, ODM deals, tax refunds, asset sales and IP licensing sales. While many one-time benefits the company could pull forward (e.g. asset sales, licensing) have been realized, we believe the company still has significant opportunity to add to that cash balance through headcount reductions or other reallocation of resources. It is reported that the company recently underwent a reorganization; while acknowledging, the company did not disclose headcount involved. With over half of BBRY's market cap cash, its flexibility to add more cash makes us cautious on further being UW.
    *
    Business fundamentals remain poor, software reinvention is piecemeal, not platform. Our upgrade to EW is not due to improving business fundamentals or a software strategy that is becoming successful. BlackBerry is on track to building a $300mm/year software business mostly through acquisitions not uptake of their EZ Pass platform. While the company has not commented publicly on further deals, and we have no knowledge of any, it seems reasonable to assume the company could continue this strategy (e.g. four software acquisitions in the last year) to continue growing its software revenue. It is not unreasonable that this business could become a $400mm/year software business after full-year impact of software acquisitions to date and some EZ Pass conversions. A 4-5x revenue software multiple applied to revenue base ascribes ~$3-3.5/share value(we ascribe no value to the hardware or services businesses).We note that this is far short of the $600mm software/messaging business the company put out as a target at their last Analyst Day in November 2014. While the company has not formally moved away from this target, CEO John Chen has begun making press remarks that the goal is a 12-18 mo target vs a FY16 goal as originally laid out.
    *
    Upgrading to EW, keeping $7 PT. Given BlackBerry's growing cash balance, our $7 PT implies an enterprise value of $1.8bn, or around 4-5xa $400mm/yr software and messaging business. This $400mm is far short of the companies $600mm/yr target for FY16, but more in-line with what we believe is achievable. The flexibility the company has to make more opex cuts to add to $3.50-$3.75/share in cash outweighs poor business fundamentals, resulting in our upgrade to EW from UW.

    Posted via CB10
    Chen said the value of the company may not be seen for 12-18mths. AFAIK he reiterated his 600M for fiscal 2016 (now includes licencing / IP deals). MS is saying they have 3.50 in cash and 3.50 with a 4x multiple of software not including licensing deals. So they give no value to IP. They are building cash. So this in an admission that $7 is the lowest the SP is worth at current fundamentals and to me assumes no growth, but no decline in growth, no hardware, no BBM, no growth in qnx auto as that has not been proven yet (but will soon), no service fees as that will go to zero.

    Posted via CB10
    07-28-15 08:11 AM
  19. W Hoa's Avatar
    I think there is a growing realization that much of what BlackBerry is up to is not in the public domain. The deal with ZTE came out of nowhere as did the acquisition of AtHoc and the patent licensing deal with Cisco.

    In the case of ZTE, BlackBerry supplied design and architecture and its proprietary Paratek antenna technology. More licensing revenue, I would think, that nobody had a clue about.

    The plot thickens.
    07-28-15 08:36 AM
  20. bspence87's Avatar
    I think we see the tides turning!
    The decline stigma is wearing off, which can only be good news for investor and costumer confidence

    Do we run up from here?
    07-28-15 08:43 AM
  21. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    OT:

    Introducing a waterproof, unbreakable and unhackable phone from the future

    by Dan Wighton
    Tuesday 28 July 2015


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-side-turing-990x425.jpg


    Smartphones can do a lot of things, but their Achilles heel has always been how fragile many of them are.

    The mobile phones we know range on the spectrum from smart and fragile at the one end to dumb and indestructible.

    Well, if early indications of the Turing Phone are anything to go by, it appears the dawn of the unbreakable phone is now and you wont need to sacrifice much in the way of capacity and design.

    The Turing Phone is made from liquidmorphium (didnt we say it was futuristic?) which is stronger than steel, lighter than aluminium and apparently the next big thing in phones.

    Aside from being (almost) unbreakable, the phone also incorporates nano technology which makes it water resistant meaning that even if you drop it in the bath you wont need to develop long-winded excuses to the people behind the counter at the Apple store.

    And as for the design, who knew liquidmorphium could look so good?

    The manufacturers call it the Lamborghini of phones but from some of the pictures it does look more Lamborghini than phone (and with a splash of DeLorean if we are being completely honest).

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-phone-500x313.jpg


    The way Wired describe it, it seems more spacephone than smartphone.

    It has a sharply curved, multi-coloured shell, and a patterned back, borrowed from spaceship designs and the result of thousands, literally thousands of sketches. (The spaceship Endurance from Interstellar was particularly inspirational.)

    And to go one further than Apple, the Turing Phone has even fancier names for the three models that it offers: Pharaoh, Cardinal and Beowulf. Space Grey eat your heart out.

    The phone is also targeted at the security conscious. Since the recent nude phone hacking scandals, the issue of smartphone security has been pushed into the public eye. And with recent revelations that the famously encrypted BlackBerry is not so encrypted after all, the Turing Phone has already got a share of the market waiting for it.


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-doubbel-phone-500x313.jpg


    Boasting end-to-end encryption, the phone is made to keep servers and third parties out of it as much as possible. With the recent controversy surrounding Facebook Messenger and other apps accessing your personal data, more security could never realistically be a bad thing.

    If there are any downsides, it is that the specs are average rather than groundbreaking. But a 16GB device with a 13-megapixel rear camera and an 8-megapixel front camera that also boasts indestructibility, non-hackability, and waterproofness isnt exactly a Nokia 3310.

    The phone isnt out yet the pre-order is outright only meaning you will have to wait a few months get your hands on the phone of the future.

    07-28-15 08:44 AM
  22. morganplus8's Avatar
    A quick chart that makes a heck of a lot more sense:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bb-july-28-2015.png

    It makes far more sense to find a bottom at yesterdays low then it did to find one at say, $ 7.50/shr. So now we are going to test the 3-ema at roughly $ 7.50 a share this morning and see if we can move above it and turn bullish again. Should be interesting. The last time we were this over-sold was a little over one year ago when we did the exact same thing and sold off from the top of the channel to the bottom of it before a rally ensued.

    Regarding oil prices and gas prices, oil is sitting out there in the gulf in tankers that refineries don't want to accept as the balanced demand of gas, diesel and derivatives of that barrel of oil are such that they can't refine for only one product. And so the market is balanced in terms of what they need for the amount of oil that is being refined. It has nothing to do with the price of gas as there is no glut of gas in the market at the retail level, it occurs at the import level with the lack of demand from refineries. This is also the time of year where refineries go off-line to rebuild and switch to the home heating cycle so for the balance of the summer the demand for oil is held back until demand for derivatives changes and they can sell more of each barrel broken down. Having said that, I do believe that gas stations do work together to lessen the pain of changes in the refined amount of gas when inventories grow.
    07-28-15 08:46 AM
  23. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    .

    OT:

    Taking a page out of the BB hand book...


    Don't suit up: Microsoft drops dress code for Android visitors


    It seems Astoria will allow Windows 10 to run unmodified droid binaries
    Suits you

    27 Jul 2015 at 16:58, Andrew Orlowski

    Windows will run Android binaries "unchanged", according to a Microsoft job posting.

    "Project Astoria" is one of several ambitious ventures announced at Microsoft's annual developer conference Build 2015, intended to lure iOS, Android, and web developers to Windows 10. All were intended to make porting to Windows easy.

    New tools would allow Windows to be added to the developers' list of build targets with as few code changes as possible and the project covered the Android part of the proposition. Requests for Google services would be cunningly diverted to Microsoft services.

    However, it seems to have morphed into something more ambitious: the "suicide note" fans feared back in the spring. According to a job posting for a software developer at Redmond, Astoria will allow Windows 10 to run unmodified Android binaries.

    A job posting spotted by a Windows blog for new recruits to the team at Microsoft claims that the Astoria bridge "enables Android developers to publish their unchanged binary to run as they are on the Windows mobile platform."

    If that's correct, then it increases the likelihood of Android apps running on Windows, which today lags far behind iOS and Android in terms of the quantity and quality of native applications.

    But an apps-at-any-cost tactic has dangers for Microsoft, as developers would have no incentive to develop functionality for Microsoft services such as Cortana or One Drive.


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-astoria_demo_official_w640px.jpg

    Project Astoria: makes your screen brighter than regular Android
    Source: Microsoft


    Microsoft would also run into a problem that BlackBerry BB10 users will know: the absence of proprietary Google libraries (GMS, or Google Mobile Services) on the device can cause compatibility issues.

    Google devised strict qualification hurdles for ODMs bundling GMS to avoid Android fragmentation. Apps running on platforms that attempt clever emulation tricks can only go so far. And Android developers are being lured ever closer to GMS, with Lollipop adding 5,000 new API calls.

    It's conceivable that one day, the platform advantage held by Apple and Google may diminish: Amazon has offered developers app streaming out of the EC2 cloud for some 18 months now.

    However, despite the potential and the obvious advantages to developers (write once, and not for multiple platforms), widespread adoption of app streaming is some way off yet.
    bungaboy, 3MIKE, sidhuk and 4 others like this.
    07-28-15 08:51 AM
  24. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    .


    BlackBerry Ltd.s Latest Acquisition Is a Game Changer

    By Ryan Vanzo - July 28, 2015



    Last week, BlackBerry Ltd (TSX:BB)(NASDAQ:BBRY) announced the acquisition of AtHoc, a provider of a software platform for delivering emergency alerts to PCs, mobile devices, and other hardware. BlackBerry is making strategic investments in security, privacy and the Internet of Things, and acquiring AtHoc will enable us to provide a holistic, end-to-end approach to communications, said John Chen, BlackBerrys chairman and CEO.

    Whats so special about AtHoc, and what does it mean for the companys future?

    A niche and growing market

    AtHocs networked crisis communications platform alerts any device (including iOS, Android, PC and Mac desktops, digital displays, radios, IP phones, and endpoints such as sirens, fire panels, and speakers), helping organizations and people connect and share information in times of crisis. Among other things, its platform sends alerts, collects event data from field personnel, helps organizations monitor the location/status of emergency personnel, and helps organizations share data during an event.

    BlackBerry hopes to integrate these services with BlackBerry Messenger to provide even more capabilities and security.

    Already a winning platform


    With the acquisition, BlackBerry solidifies one of its largest customer bases: the U.S. government. AtHocs clients already include the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security.

    Numerous federal departments, state and local agencies, and commercial enterprises alike depend on AtHoc to communicate reliably during their most critical moments. Becoming part of BlackBerry will give it the ability to scale more quickly and to introduce new applications. For both companies, it seems like a win-win.

    Combined with another recent acquisition, BlackBerry dramatically boosts its security presence

    In April BlackBerry also announced the acquisition of WatchDox, a provider of an enterprise file-sharing/syncing platform that emphasizes security. WatchDoxs platform provides full visibility and control over how files are edited, copied, printed or forwarded across PCs and mobile devices, and lets companies remotely revoke access to or delete files. For example, Hollywood studios looking to keep scripts from leaking are among the companys chief clients.

    The benefits of integrating these two recent acquisitions are clear: BlackBerry can fully develop a security-focused platform that allows for real-time alerts, tracking, files sharing, and communication.

    One step back, two steps forward

    By focusing on the security enterprise market, BlackBerry is purposefully investing less into its flagging consumer business. With more stable long-term contracts and higher margins, however, the niche market of enterprise communication security is very attractive.

    If BlackBerry can successfully integrate and market these acquisitions to new and existing customers, it could be a game changer for a company that has seen its share price fall by 30% in the past three months alone.

    BlackBerry could be a great turnaround option. This stock is even better.
    07-28-15 09:01 AM
  25. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    OT:

    Report indicates smartphone 'kill switch' not foolproof

    July 27, 2015 | By Mike Dano

    According to a new report by the Wall Street Journal, smartphone "kill switches" may not be as effective as they initially appeared. The publication noted that iPhone thefts and robberies in Seattle increased by more than 30 percent in the year after Apple introduced the function to its iPhones, which it did in September 2013.

    While the WSJ noted that Seattle thefts increased, the publication reported that thefts elsewhere during the period decreased. Austin saw a 17 percent decline in lost and stolen iPhones in the six months after the kill switch was introduced, WSJ reported, and Oakland, Calif., saw an 11 percent decrease in stolen iPhones in the first six months after the technology became available. However, Oakland noted a slight increase in the first full year as thefts picked up again.

    The reporting is noteworthy considering CTIA earlier this month said that a group of wireless carriers and smartphone makers had implemented a set of voluntary principles aimed at stopping smartphone theft. The announcement came just as a California law requiring smartphones sold in the state to have a "kill switch" went into effect.

    In this webinar, hear about IBM's current proven capabilities and our overall strategic vision for satisfying your needs in this emerging space that promises to radically transform the Telecommunications Service Provider industry. Register today.
    Sign up for our FREE newsletter for more news like this sent to your inbox!

    In April 2014, Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ), AT&T Mobility (NYSE: T), Sprint (NYSE: S), T-Mobile US (NYSE:TMUS) and U.S. Cellular (NYSE:USM) joined forces with a host of popular smartphone and platform vendors to endorse the anti-theft measures. Those companies include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Assurant, Asurion, BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), HTC, Huawei, LG Electronics, Motorola Mobility, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Samsung Electronics and ZTE.

    The handset makers and platform vendors had agreed that for new smartphones manufactured after July 2015 for retail sale in the United States, they will offer, at no cost to consumers, what the companies call "a baseline anti-theft tool that is preloaded or downloadable on wireless smartphones."

    So-called kill switches are intended to prevent thieves from making a profit on stolen phones by deactivating pilfered devices. And some initial statistics have shown that the technology works: A recent study from the Consumer Reports National Research Center concluded that 2.1 million Americans had their phones stolen last year, down 32 percent from 2013. In New York City, according to Re/code, overall cellphone robberies are down 16 percent, with iPhone robberies down by 25 percent.

    However, the WSJ noted that the picture is more complex because some thieves are impersonating users in order to hack into their phones. Thieves are also working to disable location-tracking features that would allow phone owners to find out where their stolen phones are.

    "I have seen time and time again, the technological fixes can always be circumvented, and it's purely a question of economics," James Baldinger, a lawyer who works on cellphone-fraud investigations for Sprint and other phone companies, told the WSJ.

    morganplus8, rarsen, zyben and 1 others like this.
    07-28-15 09:15 AM
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