View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. zyben's Avatar
    NSA spied on French presidents: WikiLeaks

    NSA spied on French presidents: WikiLeaks | Reuters

    Psst, Mr Hollande:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-blackberrysecusmart.jpg
    06-23-15 05:03 PM
  2. BanffMoose's Avatar
    I think Maynard Um from Well's Fargo sums it up best:

    "Excluding the IP licensing revenue, which we believe the Street and investors did not anticipate, the quarter was below general expectations."

    Given the breadth of opportunities provided by BBRY's IP, and a team that is now dedicated to software and extracting value from this side of the business, there will be many revenue streams in the future that the Street and investors do not yet anticipate.
    Seems the only thing the Street values are device sales and SAF, no? .

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-15 05:17 PM
  3. morganplus8's Avatar
    Seems the only thing the Street values are device sales and SAF, no? .

    Posted via CB10
    That maybe true but they also value the average of 40 analysts throwing darts at a board so you have that too. Since when did a penny or two matter for a revitalized company searching out a niche for itself? You have to love it when Chen was asked if he would "sell the company" and he is forced to retort, "not at today's price". Obviously the company is for sale, it is and always will be for sale for a price as yet to be determined. I can think of a number right now .............................. it has zeros ahead of it too. Crazy day. My trollex watch kept going off all day! LOL

    PS. We are down 8 cents this week, can we make that back? Anyone?
    bungaboy, bbjdog, Corbu and 12 others like this.
    06-23-15 05:39 PM
  4. Munx's Avatar
    Seems the only thing the Street values are device sales and SAF, no? .

    Posted via CB10
    Nice filler for their boiler plate analysis/reports.

    Posted via CB10
    zyben likes this.
    06-23-15 05:48 PM
  5. StormieTwo's Avatar
    I did my bit today and bought what I could. Shake out the weak hands and let JC do what he does best, unlock value.

    BB10 4 ME
    morganplus8, bbjdog, Corbu and 6 others like this.
    06-23-15 05:51 PM
  6. BanffMoose's Avatar
    That maybe true but they also value the average of 40 analysts throwing darts at a board so you have that too. Since when did a penny or two matter for a revitalized company searching out a niche for itself? You have to love it when Chen was asked if he would "sell the company" and he is forced to retort, "not at today's price". Obviously the company is for sale, it is and always will be for sale for a price as yet to be determined. I can think of a number right now .............................. it has zeros ahead of it too. Crazy day. My trollex watch kept going off all day! LOL

    PS. We are down 8 cents this week, can we make that back? Anyone?
    Wait... "it has zeros ahead of it too"? So, 000000000000000001? If so I can afford to buy it myself! Woo-hoo! LOL


    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, 3MIKE, CDM76 and 1 others like this.
    06-23-15 06:08 PM
  7. JonCBK's Avatar
    Absolutely crazy to be down after that release. People talk about if the software business is on pace to be a $500M business by the end of the year as if the entire opportunity in enterprise closes at the end of 2015. Sure it would be nice to meet that target this year. But if we meet that target in mid-2016 (and are cash flow positive all along the way), then that is fine as well. There is the possibility to grow after meeting the $500M target as well. Enterprise will need security even more in 2017 than it does now. The Hackers and Corporate Espionage guys aren't going away. They are in fact just getting better.
    06-23-15 06:14 PM
  8. BanffMoose's Avatar
    I did my bit today and bought what I could. Shake out the weak hands and let JC do what he does best, unlock value.

    BB10 4 ME
    Same here. I couldn't resist the $8.8x's.

    You know, thanks to Morgan, and others here, my HALO unrealized gains finally offset my BBRY unrealized losses. Only, BBRY keeps making HALO work harder and harder!

    BBRY stop that!

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-15 06:15 PM
  9. markmall's Avatar
    Hende, I also was very focused on this exchange. Chen says,"hey, we are advertising in banner ads!" Banner ads! Are you kidding? You are right -- banner ads appear for those already interested in your product. They need to communicate to the 99% of people that think BBRY is already out of business.

    Maybe BBRY could have hired a great CFO instead of Chen. What they needed in their CEO was a marketing guru. Their challenges are marketing challenges. Many CEOs could fire people and sell assets. It takes marketing chops to change people's perceptions about a consumer (yes) electronics company and sell devices in a competitive environment.
    06-23-15 06:28 PM
  10. BanffMoose's Avatar
    Hende, I also was very focused on this exchange. Chen says,"hey, we are advertising in banner ads!" Banner ads! Are you kidding? You are right -- banner ads appear for those already interested in your product. They need to communicate to the 99% of people that think BBRY is already out of business.

    Maybe BBRY could have hired a great CFO instead of Chen. What they needed in their CEO was a marketing guru. Their challenges are marketing challenges. Many CEOs could fire people and sell assets. It takes marketing chops to change people's perceptions about a consumer (yes) electronics company and sell devices in a competitive environment.
    I beg to differ. BlackBerry's relationships with carriers are near their all time lows, but getting better. Carriers do most of the selling (especially in the US) and if they aren't pushing the phone, no amount of advertising is going to help. Go look through the forums for stories of people getting told to buy something other than BlackBerry. Look for how many stories describe carrier stores not even carrying any BB10 devices, or sales people completely clueless about BB10. The BlackBerry CEO can only do so much when he can't control the sales force that actually do the sales.

    Chen is creating new reasons for carriers and resellers to support BlackBerry again. From today's call, it sounds like some are signing on to do so again. That is good. That is what is needed first.

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-15 06:42 PM
  11. Supa_Fly1's Avatar
    NSA spied on French presidents: WikiLeaks

    NSA spied on French presidents: WikiLeaks | Reuters

    Psst, Mr Hollande:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    & from the same article on Reuters ...

    "The French people have a right to know that their elected government is subject to hostile surveillance from a supposed ally," WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange said in the statement, adding that more "important revelations" would soon follow.
    The French people have a right to know that their elected government is failing and lacking to take hostile surveillance seriously and failing efforts to prevent it. Their claiming the conversations where supposed to be private and didn't take place on a phone. So maybe in a closed room ... dare I say a very new market segment ... hi frequency radio noise/waves to completely disrupt current and almost immediate to market technology from the very fine speakers of the Passport or Z30 via SecuSmart MicroSD stored sound files?
    Hmm.
    zyben likes this.
    06-23-15 06:46 PM
  12. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    He was asked on Bloomberg about Android, his response was "if I can make it secure I will"
    Did I ear 'and nothing conclusive yet' ?
    I think I did. Did I ?

    Posted via CB10
    Greened, bungaboy, 3MIKE and 3 others like this.
    06-23-15 06:58 PM
  13. cjcampbell's Avatar
    & from the same article on Reuters ...



    The French people have a right to know that their elected government is failing and lacking to take hostile surveillance seriously and failing efforts to prevent it. Their claiming the conversations where supposed to be private and didn't take place on a phone. So maybe in a closed room ... dare I say a very new market segment ... hi frequency radio noise/waves to completely disrupt current and almost immediate to market technology from the very fine speakers of the Passport or Z30 via SecuSmart MicroSD stored sound files?
    Hmm.
    Cone of silence...


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-fa7nf5cfqwvv722.large.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-15 07:00 PM
  14. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    NSA spied on French presidents: WikiLeaks

    NSA spied on French presidents: WikiLeaks | Reuters

    Psst, Mr Hollande:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	blackberrysecusmart.jpg 
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ID:	359166
    Franois loves Angela, she went through this and will be a good advisor, I'd bet !


    But spying is the rule, friendship or not, smartphones or not.

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-15 07:02 PM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    So...

    How about some enlightened analysis from the best and the brightest to allow us to see things more clearly?

    This, from Tal Liani, from Merrill Lynch:

    How strong are the software revenues?

    1Q miss on revenue and EPS
    1Q revenues of $658mn were $22mn below Street consensus, and EPS, at -5c, missed by 1c. While software revenues were stronger than expected, most other revenue drivers deteriorated again, with handset sales down to a mere 1.1mn unit/quarter despite a few important product cycles. Difficulties selling devices and a 50%+ annual decline in service revenues lead us to question the company’s ability to smoothly migrate to a software model. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

    Handsets and services down, software up
    Blackberry reported another weak quarter of handset sales at $263mn vs. the Street’s $328mn, a 30% YoY decline. We had expected that the new Passport and Classic, as well as new emerging market products, would generate some replacement momentum, yet 3 quarters of sequential declines suggest otherwise. In addition, service revenues were down -18.4% QoQ and -52%% YoY to $252mn. Device and Service revenues represent the majority of revenues, accounting for 78% of 1Q sales.

    All eyes on software, but what’s in the numbers?
    The bright point of 1Q was 104% QoQ growth in software revenues, although we suspect that the majority of this strength is related to one-time recognition of a patent licensing deal to Cisco, and accordingly we model a sequential decline from $137mn to $95mn next quarter. Management noted a strong software deal pipeline and the potential to sell into multi-device environments, but we remain skeptical for multiple
    reasons. First, it will be difficult for the company to remain cash flow positive absent a recovery in Hardware and Service revenue – a recovery that we do not foresee. Second, we think that Blackberry’s software mainly powers its own devices, and poor demand for devices and services could therefore inhibit future demand for software, in our view.

    [...]

    Investment Thesis
    In our view, Blackberry's long-term outlook is unlikely to improve given diminishing strategic options and fierce competitive pressure in consumer and enterprise. We see a low probability BBRY improves its positioning given pressure from Android and iPhone. We also think the transition to software will be difficult due to competition in the EMM market. We believe BES12 adoption will be below expectations this year and not enough to offset steep declines in Service Access Fee (SAF) revenues.
    They have a "Underperform" rating and a "Price Objective" ("Objective" being the keyword here...) of US$6.00

    All is well...
    06-23-15 07:07 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    Cone of silence...


    Click image for larger version. 

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    Too funny...

    Unless Secusmart comes up with a secured version of this:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-donadams.jpg
    06-23-15 07:10 PM
  17. bigbadben10's Avatar
    OT again, watch with VLC player if you can as it plays better https://db.tt/4wtUr6Q7
    bungaboy, Corbu, bbjdog and 2 others like this.
    06-23-15 07:15 PM
  18. spiller's Avatar
    I think Maynard Um from Well's Fargo sums it up best:

    "Excluding the IP licensing revenue, which we believe the Street and investors did not anticipate, the quarter was below general expectations."

    Given the breadth of opportunities provided by BBRY's IP, and a team that is now dedicated to software and extracting value from this side of the business, there will be many revenue streams in the future that the Street and investors do not yet anticipate.
    So...it happened...but we didn't think it would happen....so blackberry should be valued like it didn't happen? 500M is 500M. Cisco and Intel might be one time no one knows. Certicom certificates are renewed annually so that is recurring.

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-15 07:16 PM
  19. Corbu's Avatar
    And James! What does James think of all of this? Since I am sure none of you will be able to have a good night's sleep unless you know what our esteemed friend thinks...

    Morgan Stanley

    BlackBerry Ltd

    June 23, 2015

    IP Licensing Masks a Troublesome Picture While Compromising Long-Term Value

    BBRY’s Q1 results were aided by one-time licensing deals that we estimate contributed upwards of $60-70mm in revenue. The $600mm software and messaging target for FY16 looks to be unachievable on underlying software products and acquisitions to date.

    $600mm software and messaging revenue target for FY16 looks unachievable organically. BlackBerry mentioned on earnings Tuesday that they now estimate the core software business will grow ~20% in FY16 vs. their initial target of 100% growth. Software generated ~$250mm in revenue in FY15, hence we estimate the Company is targeting $300mm in FY16. We also estimate the Company could get an incremental $20-40mm from acquisitions done in FY15 (Movirtu, WatchDox, Secusmart). This would be a significant shortfall from the previous target of $600mm ($500mm software, $100mm messaging). Management further acknowledged that the Company would be unlikely to achieve the $100mm in messaging revenue. For our part, we are skeptical the Company can even get to the $300mm in organic software revenue.

    Licensing monetizes IP portfolio but reduces its standalone value. Management announced that it had struck two technology licensing agreements, most notably with Cisco. Terms were not disclosed, but we estimate that these two deals contributed roughly $60-70mm of revenue this quarter. While we do not think there is a deep pool of large potential licensees, our estimates contemplate that BlackBerry will be able to execute additional deals and we are estimating a $30mm per quarter contribution for the remainder of FY16. In our view, these licensing agreements are being used to forego opex cuts necessary to make the company profitable and cash flow positive in FY16 at the expense of liquidating the long term standalone value the portfolio may have had.

    Devices business continues to wane. Despite the release of new products (e.g. Passport and Classic) and a new distribution agreement with T-Mobile, the company only recognized revenue on the sale of 1.1mm devices, a 50% reduction from last year and 15% less than last quarter. ASP’s ticked up as the company began recognizing revenue on new devices, however, unit sales continued to disappoint. In a continued attempt to make the devices business operating breakeven in FY16, the company announced ODM deals with Wistron and Compal, allowing BBRY to move employees currently focused on hardware development to other segments of the business, reallocating costs.

    Adjusting estimates slightly. We are now forecasting Q2 and FY16 revenue / EPS of $599mm / ($0.07) (from $596mm / ($0.07)) and $2,405mm / ($0.24) (from $2,402mm / ($0.26)) which now include $155mm in FY16 IP licensing revenue (previous estimates did not contemplate this additional source) offset by lower devices and organic software revenues. Our FY16 software & messaging revenue is now $327mm, down from $475mm previously. Our software and messaging estimate assumes the underlying business (~$250mm in FY15) grows 15-20% & recent acquisitions contribute another $20-40mm. Given better positioned competitors like MobileIron are seeing 10-15% growth, we think even our revised underlying software targets could be difficult to achieve.

    Remain UW with a $7PT. Our $7 PT implies an EV of $2.5bn, which we deem appropriate for a company eventually (2-4 years) building a $600mm/yr software and messaging business. As shareholders reevaluate the trajectory of BlackBerry’s enterprise software business, we note that the Company is preserving assets and optionality well.
    06-23-15 07:18 PM
  20. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    What?
    A less than stellar review of an Apple product in the WSJ...
    Apple HomeKit Review: Siri?s New Smart Home Already Needs Renovation - WSJ
    06-23-15 07:29 PM
  21. Supa_Fly1's Avatar

    Finally! Get RID of these Stupid childish STICKERS!

    Blackberry is an Enterprise business for veyr busy corporate employees that it wants to empower and increase productivity (ahem Mission Statement) - consumers is a by product. By the mission statement alone BBM Stickers does NOT fit into this strategy!

    BBM Stickers, although some may like them, is not inline with BlackBerry's goals, moreover trying to monetize it is very cheap and Nokian_circa 2004!

    BlackBerry:
    Allow users to create their own Wallpaper, even faded.
    Allow users to create their own BBM sticker in decent not OVERSIZE.
    Allow users to setup audible alerts specific to BBM contacts or Groups
    Allow Group Administrators to override audible notifications for all members
    - YET: in other words do NOT override the volume or entire notification choices, just in normal!
    - with members private BBM request to allow their notifications to be manually set by themselves.

    Do this ALL for FREE! The competition is killing you. This is something to entice users BACK.
    Once Back then offer specific features really high-end features for free.

    BBM Meetings
    - allow a DIRECT tie-in to Cisco's Tandberg VC systems and infrastructure!
    Can you IMAGINE a CEO/COO/CIO of a global mining/industrial/financial company having to attend a VC out of the office needing to boot up their PC, connect to VPN, maintain a public wifi hotspot connectivity speeds at the hotel without I.T. help/guidance and then use Polycom Presence SW to connect to a corporate wide VC?

    NO this will never work ... but on the Passport, Z30, Classic over carrier LTE which is VERY stable by comparison and with BES10 and BES12 is already VERY secure and behind firewalls thus access capability over intranet infrastructure is already there. Why not BBM Meetings with Cisco CU90 etc capabilty directly into the boardroom!

    CEO shows up as CEO+Name.
    Bacon Munchers likes this.
    06-23-15 07:35 PM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry Ltd investors growing weary as stock slips 4% | Financial Post

    No one ever said BlackBerry Ltd.’s turnaround was going to be easy, but investors are starting to grow weary from waiting on better days after another earnings miss from the country’s beleaguered tech darling on Tuesday.

    “The jury is still out,” Bob Sewell, chief executive at Bellwether Investment Management in Oakville, Ont., said. “We don’t currently own it, but it is such an iconic name in Canada you can’t help but follow it and continue to hope that it will survive.”

    BlackBerry shares fell more than four per cent on Tuesday to US$8.81 in New York trading after the company reported a first-quarter earnings miss before the opening bell on markets.

    The highlight of the quarter was the company’s strong software performance, which helped push the stock higher in pre-market trading, but an accelerated decline in services revenues combined with weaker hardware sales proved too much of a disappointment for investors.

    “It appeared that the strong growth in software sales was going to give the stock price a lift, but hardware remains the big question mark,” Sewell said.

    He believes there are encouraging signs of improvement at BlackBerry despite the miss and said CEO John Chen’s go-forward strategy appears to make sense — at least on the surface.

    “Certainly their last three acquisitions are all consistent with building an enterprise platform focused on delivering secure voice and data, which is a fast growing segment in the tech sector and bound to accelerate further,” he said.

    “This is a positive as too often we see tech companies making acquisitions that are difficult to understand relative to their business strategy and focus.”

    But while Blackberry’s overhaul is making progress, that progress remains slow and a return to the company’s halcyon days continues to grow more unlikely by the day.

    Sewell predicts the stock is likely to remain in the “penalty box” until they are executing on a viable, long-term business model.

    “For investors already holding the stock I don’t see a lot of downside, but nor do I see many catalysts for significant upside near term which to me suggests there are better places to deploy capital,” he said.

    Most analysts tend to agree with that assessment. Nineteen of the 32 who cover the stock have hold recommendations, while another nine suggest investors sell at this point in time.

    “We consider BlackBerry a high-risk, potentially high-reward stock due to valuation and volatility,” said Amitabh Passi, a UBS analyst who maintained his neutral rating and US$10 price target.

    Greg Newman, an associate portfolio manager at The Newman Group in Toronto, said he doesn’t own BlackBerry shares now nor does he anticipate owning them in the near future.

    “I gave up at around US$19 some years back, he said. “After getting burned a few times before then, I have not looked back.”

    While the company may still turn things around, the probability of such an outcome is not one that Newman is willing to wager on at this point, particularly since there are other, more attractive opportunities available to him.

    “When a company continues to disappoint, at some point you just got to move on,” he said.
    bungaboy, rarsen, bbjdog and 1 others like this.
    06-23-15 08:38 PM
  23. JonCBK's Avatar
    Well those reports from Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan were certainly sobering. I better understand the response to the revenue numbers now. That said, I'm still pretty confident that this cash flow producing company with many good assets and a good business model will continue to pull through. Note that I don't say just "pull through". BBRY is winning right now and has been for nearly a year. The cash pile is still strong, the acquisitions seem to be additive, the handsets are selling at a nice price, the software is selling, the patents are being licensed. All this tells me that the company is playing the hand it has pretty well. I focus on the cash flow from operations over any GAAP or non-GAAP numbers. That BBRY seems to be able to spend and end each quarter with tons of cash in the bank is very telling to me. It is very hard to play games with cash. But again, those reports were tough. If the license revenue really was a huge portion of software sales and a basically one time sale, that is tough.
    06-23-15 09:22 PM
  24. Corbu's Avatar
    06-23-15 09:39 PM
  25. Corbu's Avatar
    QNX:
    While we are talking QNX, this, from the QNX Auto Blog site (in German):
    QNX Auto Blog: Concept Car mit QNX-Technologie feiert seinen Auftakt in Europa

    Related to the 19th International Congress on Advances in Automotive Electronics
    http://en.automobil-elektronik-kongress.de/
    which QNX will be taking part in (http://en.automobil-elektronik-kongress.de/exhibitors/)
    06-23-15 09:42 PM
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