View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
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    416 37.48%
  1. Corbu's Avatar
    What would we do without the G&M?
    Analysts warn BlackBerry?s first-quarter earnings will disappoint - The Globe and Mail

    SHANE DINGMAN

    Analysts waiting for BlackBerry Ltd.’s next update on the CEO John Chen’s turnaround effort expect to be disappointed; how much disappointment is the only question.

    The first 18 months of the company’s transition plan to rely less on revenue from handsets and more on mobile enterprise software will be judged on Tuesday with the company’s first-quarter earnings. But analysts are already warning BlackBerry may offer little evidence of traction.

    Mr. Chen has pledged that by the end of fiscal year 2016 BlackBerry can hit $600-million (U.S.) in revenues from software sales and BBM services.

    While that would only offset declines in its service fees revenues, it’s still an aggressive attempt to more than double the $234-million it earned on software in fiscal year 2015.

    “All eyes will be on the software revenue line, which needs to show an upward trend to support management’s ambitious turnaround goals,” wrote Tim Long, analyst with BMO Capital Markets.

    “Whether the numbers hit or not, we hope management provides enough metrics to get some transparency on the underlying trends in the software-oriented recovery.”

    Street consensus seems to be BlackBerry will report $690-million in revenue for the quarter, the expectations include fears that hardware sales will take a hit despite the newer keyboard-focused Passport and Classic handsets.

    The past two quarters have surprised analysts by being cash-positive, thanks in part to heavy cost-cutting by Mr. Chen’s team.

    One of the key challenges the company faces is tough competition for its BES12 platform from other mobile device management players like MobileIron, Microsoft and VMware.

    “The BlackBerry brand may not be serving them entirely well in these circumstances,” says John Jackson, the research vice-president of mobile and connected platforms for market intelligence firm IDC.

    “It is just an incredibly competitive space, and there’s the impression [BlackBerry] is a company that remains distressed ... that probably has negative connotations in the broader market.”

    But Mr. Jackson does not believe it is time to panic yet.

    For instance, he rejects the idea that the company should try to push more proprietary BlackBerry software into the cross-platform app market – like it did with BBM.

    Examples of possible third-party apps include the BlackBerry Hub inbox, or even the predictive-type software keyboard.

    “There’s nowhere near the kind of money in [that strategy] that they would need to move the needle,” he says.

    “That is not the billions with a ‘B’ business where BlackBerry used to be.”

    Colin Gillis, Senior Technology Analyst at BGC Partners, Inc., noted that while Microsoft once held back popular Office software from Apple or Android devices, sales of the Surface tablet have actually increased since they ended that restrictive strategy.

    That said, he also thinks now is not time to start selling every piece of IP that isn’t nailed down.

    “I actually like that they are not chasing down too many rabbit holes,” he says.

    “The ship is no longer on fire. They have done a good job and trying to be cashflow positive – that’s great.

    “So now the question is, ‘How’s the transformation going?’”

    In a research note, Morgan Stanley’s James Faucette wrote that while the target is reachable, the timeline may be off: “If shareholders begin to re-evaluate the trajectory of BlackBerry’s enterprise software business ... eventually (2-4 years) building a $600mm/yr software and messaging business seems reasonable to us.”

    Another option for growth is in the company’s embedded-device computing division, which has been the subject of a number of announcements in recent months.

    “QNX has got a lot of interesting potential. Security in the Internet of Things, and security in smart cars is going to be incredibly important,” says Bob O’Donnell, founder and chief analyst for TECHnalysis Research in California.

    “Part of the problem is it isn’t sexy and vibrant.

    “The general public still thinks about [BlackBerry] phones and they are not looking at the whole picture.”

    But if Tuesday’s earnings feature disappointing numbers for software, hardware and service fees, Mr. Jackson believes analysts will require Mr. Chen to offer something more than promises of the future.

    “We may need a John Chen moment of convincing candour and level resetting,” he says.

    “If there’s a CEO in technology who can pull that off, it’s him.”
    rarsen, bungaboy, bbjdog and 13 others like this.
    06-21-15 07:58 PM
  2. bbjdog's Avatar
    Thanks Corbu! Like the part about, if there is a CEO who can do it, it's him (John Chen).
    06-21-15 08:38 PM
  3. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Wondering ...
    I'm currently at avg €8.25 (so I'm -2,27% right now at CAND 10.91) and may be tempted to add a few hundred.
    Gonna wait until the end of the day and may add tomorrow at the opening ...
    GL to all, one more day to go
    06-22-15 03:39 AM
  4. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Nice shot:

    Attachment 358842

    Classically Posted.
    Thanks.
    P.S: One sticker peel would have been better though
    06-22-15 05:36 AM
  5. Mr BBRY's Avatar
    Unless I missed it, I don't think this article was posted yet. It's a great read to get us pumped for tomorrow's ER!

    BlackBerry?s big turnaround | The Next Million | KPMG Enterprise

    EDIT: I did miss it! Credit goes to you Zyben on 6/18, post #85449. I've been speeding through this forum a little too fast lately.
    Last edited by Mr BBRY; 06-22-15 at 07:04 AM.
    06-22-15 06:15 AM
  6. Mr BBRY's Avatar
    Another "must watch" in preparation for tomorrow. For all of the sensible investors out there, the best way to judge BlackBerry's progress tomorrow is to pay attention to how John Chen follows up to this post Q4 FYE'15 narrative. It's a great benchmark to remember where we left off the last time there was some news straight from the horse's mouth.

    Chen: Financially under control, stabilizing revenue
    06-22-15 06:56 AM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    06-22-15 07:03 AM
  8. Corbu's Avatar
    06-22-15 07:06 AM
  9. Corbu's Avatar
    06-22-15 07:15 AM
  10. bbjdog's Avatar
    06-22-15 08:26 AM
  11. W Hoa's Avatar
    Oppenheimer Remains Sidelined on BlackBerry Ltd Ahead of F1Q16 Results

    June 22, 2015 9:20 AM EDT by Lilah Olsher in Insights Technology

    Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz weighed in with some insights on BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) ahead of its first quarter fiscal year 2016 results which will be released on June 23, 2015. The analyst maintained a Perform rating on the stock without providing a price target. Shares of BBRY closed yesterday at $8.91, down $0.21, or -2.30%.

    Uerkwitz noted, We reiterate our bearish view on BBRYs handset business heading into the quarter. We believe consensus underestimates the difficulty BBRY is facing for its smartphones vs. competition, and market-wide weakness in 1H15 may exacerbate the Y/Y decline in BBRYs device revenues. We believe a stabilized handset business and growth in software revenues are two key drivers for BBRY. On the positive side, we believe we are 1-2 quarters away from seeing material traction of the software business, which could provide management with some positive momentum.
    06-22-15 08:29 AM
  12. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry Ltd faces sea of skeptics Tuesday as investors brace for another ugly quarter | Financial Post

    When BlackBerry Ltd. reports its first-quarter results Tuesday before the bell, investors and analysts will scour the release to find one specific metric: revenue, especially sales in the nascent software business.

    The Waterloo, Ont.-based company has continued trimming expenses, announcing a surprise batch of job cuts in May, this time for an undisclosed number of people in its rapidly-eroding device division. But investors are still looking for signs of stability and proof that consumers and enterprises are buying the products, services and promises that BlackBerry is selling – and whether chief executive John Chen has made any meaningful progress in the turnaround effort he was hired to lead.

    “BlackBerry is blocking and tackling well near term, delivering cost reductions and launching products on time,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Sue wrote in a note to clients. “It’s hard to cut your way to glory.”

    There is a lot of skepticism among investors that glory is on the horizon. Amid relentless speculation about M&A and products, shares of BlackBerry have slumped 18.9 per cent so far this year, closing at US$8.91 on Friday in New York.
    Analysts expect BlackBerry will record revenue of US$693.9 million for the period ending May 30, more than 28 per cent lower compared to the same time last fiscal year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    But the health of hardware is especially hard to gauge because BlackBerry records sales on a sell-through basis, an accounting policy that defers the recognition of revenue until a device is sold to the end customer by a wireless carrier. It reduces the likelihood of prematurely recording a sale that could be returned later. Chen has told reporters that he’d like to revise the policy, but needs to see stability in demand first.

    The company has released new phones including the Classic and the Passport, models that RBC’s Sue says “may be receiving a good reception.” Conversely, analysts at Exane BNP Paribas “fail to see a meaningful traction of BlackBerry’s latest handsets in the highly competitive mid/high-end smartphone market.”

    Many analysts, like the team at Credit Suisse, continue to publish research reports that call for Chen to exit the handset business altogether and go all-in on software. But that strategy isn’t fool-proof either.

    There are strong reservations that Chen won’t be able to make good on his promise to double software sales in fiscal 2016 to US$500 million, plus another US$100 million from its BBM messaging service. “BlackBerry will have to start showing very brisk growth” to meet the benchmark, said analysts at Exane BNP Paribas. The revenue target is back-end loaded, with larger figures expected later this year.

    Of the 32 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only four rate BlackBerry’s stock a buy, 19 a hold and nine a sell. The company’s stock has a 12-month price target of US$9.33. Analysts haven’t set a high bar so far for BlackBerry – what they seem to want the most from Chen is more visibility into his thinking.

    “Whether the numbers hit or not,” said BMO Capital Markets analysts, “we hope management provides enough metrics to get some transparency on the underlying trends in the software-oriented recovery.”
    06-22-15 08:34 AM
  13. sidhuk's Avatar
    Thanks for posting. The good looking Doctor worth mentioning

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-leah-3-2.png

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    06-22-15 08:45 AM
  14. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    HALO
    New 52 week high

    Thanks Morgan!
    06-22-15 08:51 AM
  15. primusd's Avatar
    Wondering ...
    I'm currently at avg €8.25 (so I'm -2,27% right now at CAND 10.91) and may be tempted to add a few hundred.
    Gonna wait until the end of the day and may add tomorrow at the opening ...
    GL to all, one more day to go
    Indeed, could be a good buying day... might have to add some as well. Hope I didn't miss the boat with the 8.82 low at 9:39....
    zyben likes this.
    06-22-15 08:58 AM
  16. bbjdog's Avatar
    Thanks for posting. The good looking Doctor worth mentioning

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	leah-3-2.png 
Views:	1877 
Size:	616.3 KB 
ID:	358904

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    Yeah, she is worth mentioning! I should make a doctors appointment with her. I think London might be calling me. Lol
    sidhuk, zyben, Mr BBRY and 4 others like this.
    06-22-15 09:04 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    Security
    Michael Hayden Says U.S. Is Easy Prey for Hackers - WSJ
    Former CIA and NSA chief says ‘shame on us’ for not protecting critical information better

    What’s the impact for you? The impact is the next sound you hear will not be a digital bugle signaling the arrival of the digital cavalry to come save the day. The government ain’t coming. You’re not quite on your own, but you are more on your own up here [in cyberspace] than you in your lifetime have ever experienced being on your own down here.
    06-22-15 09:20 AM
  18. TimJohnSmith's Avatar
    I don't know if this has been posted, however :

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/surpri...124412870.html

    Tim Smith from my Z10 on Rogers
    CDM76, morganplus8, rarsen and 6 others like this.
    06-22-15 10:15 AM
  19. Corbu's Avatar
    06-22-15 10:18 AM
  20. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Just reiterating my prediction - I am expecting under $500M in revenue. Positive EPS is possible and likely simply because of super controlled costs. But overall I expect this to be an ugly quarter from revenue perspective.

    And I don't think that's the bottom either. I think we'll see a reversal in revenue only after release of Android based phones with BlackBerry Experience running on them. Until then (that is another quarter), we may decline a bit more.





    Posted via CB10
    06-22-15 10:39 AM
  21. W Hoa's Avatar
    OT:

    Security

    An attack on the IT network of LOT airline of Poland saw at least 10 flights grounded this weekend, in one of the first reported cases of hackers causing cancellations.

    The attack hit yesterday, when LOT apologised for an IT systems failure, leading to journeys from Warsaw to a range of European destinations being terminated, including trips to Munich, Hamburg, Copenhagen and Stockholm, amongst others. As many as 1500 passengers were said to have been affected.
    Attack On LOT Polish Airline Grounds 10 Flights - Forbes
    06-22-15 10:44 AM
  22. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    OT

    Wanna be inovative ? Innovate and take the rant.
    Wanna be hyped and sell ? Steal the inovation you ranted.
    How things go ...

    Apple Rumored To Eliminate Home Button On Future iPhones | Ubergizmo
    06-22-15 10:51 AM
  23. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry Earnings Preview: All Eyes On Software, Says UBS - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    By Teresa Rivas

    BlackBerry (BBRY) reports earnings Tuesday, and today UBS’s Amitabh Passi and Tejas Venkatesh have a preview of the report.

    They reiterated a Neutral rating and $10 price on the stock, writing that their main concern is the progress BlackBerry is making toward its $600m revenue target for software revenues this year, as they remain doubtful it can reach this level.

    From their note:

    The key software monetization levers center on a) progress with the BES12, cross-platform enterprise mobility management (EMM) offering b) QNX sales c) Secusmart (voice encryption) and d) Blackberry Messenger (BBM). In addition, we foresee modest contribution from WatchDox, an acquisition BBRY closed on May 7th. We estimate annual sales of about $15m from WatchDox, and therefore foresee WatchDox contributing about $1m to software revenues in F1Q (May ending qtr).

    However, they also note that BlackBerry has more levels to pull in terms of operating expenses:

    We expect Blackberry to continue to manage opex tightly, with the magnitude of opex cuts in FY15 much larger than our initial expectations. For F1Q, we are modeling opex (including D&A) of $326m, down from $504m in the year-ago quarter. For F1Q and 2Q, we are modeling Revs/EPS of $692m/$0.00 and $714m/$0.01 vs. consensus at $687m/(0.03) and $702m/(0.02) resp. Our estimates further assume a) device shipments of 1.4m units b) device ASPs of $240 up from $211 last quarter c) Services revenue decline of 14% q/q and d) gross margin of ~47%. We believe device ASP is a key variable dependent on the mix of newer, higher ASP devices and older BB7 devices.

    They also think BlackBerry should ditch its devices and focus on just software and services, as this would make its business model less volatile. “Ultimately, the competitive landscape is tough with VMware (VMW), Citrix (CTXS), IBM (IBM), Mobileiron (MOBL), Good Tech all formidable competitors, as well as potentially Microsoft (MSFT) with Intune.”

    Last week, Raymond James reiterated a Hold on BlackBerry although the shares also gained on news that the company is considering selling phones running Google‘s (GOOGL) Android operating system in place of its own BB10 OS
    W Hoa, Mr BBRY, jxnb and 7 others like this.
    06-22-15 10:54 AM
  24. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry?s Software Sales in the Spotlight Again ? Earnings Preview - Canada Real Time - WSJ

    By CAROLYN KING and BEN DUMMETT

    BlackBerry Ltd. is expected to report its latest financial results before the markets open on Tuesday. As in recent quarters, investors will be looking for positive news on software sales, which the Canadian smartphone company hopes will underpin growth going forward. Here are a few things to watch:

    EARNINGS FORECAST: BlackBerry’s loss likely narrowed significantly in the fiscal first quarter ended May 30. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters put the expected loss at 3 cents a share, which would be an improvement over the 11-cent loss it posted in the same quarter a year earlier. The company posted a surprise quarterly profit in the fourth quarter.

    REVENUE FORECAST: Analysts are forecasting another sharp drop in revenue. The Thomson Reuters estimate is $683 million, down from the $966 million in revenue BlackBerry generated in the year-earlier first quarter. Even that could be optimistic–RBC Capital Markets, for instance, is projecting revenue of just $487 million in the period. In the preceding fourth quarter, BlackBerry’s top line fell far short of expectations, coming in at $660 million.

    WHAT TO WATCH:

    –SOFTWARE REVENUES: Overall revenues are expected to be down, but investors are hoping sales, in particular of the company’s software used to manage mobile devices on corporate networks, are headed the other way. In the fourth quarter, BlackBerry generated $67 million in software sales. RBC is expecting that figure to be about $70 million in the first quarter, rising to $100 million in the second quarter. Any sequential improvement in the first quarter would provide some evidence that enterprise customers are buying BlackBerry’s new mobile device management software. It could also give investors more confidence in BlackBerry’s ability to hit its target of $500 million in revenue from software sales and another $100 million from selling added features aimed at corporate users for its BBM instant messaging services in fiscal 2016. These include better encryption technology to protect data sent between users and the ability to host video and voice conference calls with up to 25 participants over a smartphone.

    –DEVICE SALES: BlackBerry launched its Classic smartphone late last year, but the rollout has been slower than hoped. Scotiabank said in a note last week that, “While we continue to believe that the Classic will drive an upgrade cycle, we believe the enterprise and government [subscriber] base will take much longer to adopt the device.” The Leap device, announced in March, didn’t have wide distribution until the end of the latest period and so likely wasn’t a big contributor. On the bright side, BlackBerry and U.S. wireless carrier T-Mobile US Inc. recently patched up a rift and that means BlackBerry will gain access to millions of potential subscribers in the U.S. Still, that arrangement came too late to benefit the fiscal first quarter. The latest results could benefit from a full quarter in which A&T Inc. started offering the Classic and the Passport, another new smartphone, in its U.S. stores, and the introduction by Verizon Wireless of the Classic in its U.S. outlets.
    W Hoa, Mr BBRY, sidhuk and 6 others like this.
    06-22-15 10:56 AM
  25. Corbu's Avatar
    Will investors be able to wait for Blackberry? - MarketWatch

    Although Blackberry made its name selling phones, the main asset today is the security of its network and software. The company is far less of a phone manufacturer today than it was a handful of years ago, and rightfully, management is focusing on the company's competitive advantage to not only stabilize earnings and revenue, but to set the stage for future growth, partnerships, and maybe eventually a takeover.

    The assets that blackberry BBRY, +1.01% has are unique, valuable, and attractive to industry participants.

    The focus on these core assets and the company's competitive advantage is already taking shape, and we expect that to continue, and in doing so we expect revenue stability and continued improvement in cash flow. This would also expect positive earnings and earnings growth in the future. Our opinion is that revenue stability and positive earnings will come later in the year in association with software sales.

    Smartphones are now a wildcard. Consumers are fickle, and if BBRY produces a smartphone that is wildly attractive, it could put Blackberry right back on the map. Right now that seems like a long shot and it does not factor into our opinion at all, but it must be realized as a possibility nonetheless.

    The deterioration in revenue is a major concern. Blackberry must stabilize revenue in order to appease the investment community. If revenue continues to deteriorate, investors will not embrace the company. Most investors are demanding revenue stability immediately given the stability in earnings and the improvement in cash flow.

    However, revenue stability might be predicated on software sales, and software sales might be something that are realized in a more meaningful way later this year. As a result, revenue may not improve materially in the immediate term, but should show that a real signs of improvement as the year progresses.

    Our main concern is not if Blackberry will be able to solidify software sales and stabilize revenue, but if investors will be willing to wait for those software sales to be realized.
    06-22-15 11:25 AM
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