View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry Leap Available In White on ShopBlackBerry.com - MarketWatch

    WATERLOO, ONTARIO, May 29, 2015 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- BlackBerry Limited BBRY, (BB), a global leader in mobile communications, launched the BlackBerry(R) Leap, an affordable all-touch smartphone in a modern and powerful design for 4G LTE networks, in white across all ShopBlackBerry.com markets. Consumers who want to get things done and companies looking for enterprise fleet renewals can now purchase the modern and powerful BlackBerry Leap in an alternative color to fit in their working environment.

    The new white BlackBerry Leap is available to customers in Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom and United States on ShopBlackBerry.com. A variety of accessories including cases, carrying solutions, chargers, and audio peripherals, are also available through ShopBlackBerry.com. BlackBerry recently introduced three new Accessory Value Bundles that include an unlocked BlackBerry Leap in shadow grey with accessories for additional savings. The BlackBerry Leap Efficiency Bundle, BlackBerry Leap Travel Bundle and BlackBerry Leap Power Bundle are already available for North American customers on ShopBlackBerry.com.

    BlackBerry Leap features the latest BlackBerry(R) 10.3.1 operating system, a brilliant edge-to-edge five-inch HD display and more than a full day's battery power, keeping users hyper connected, productive and always in control.
    rarsen, Mr BBRY, sidhuk and 2 others like this.
    05-29-15 09:20 AM
  2. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    Economy in Canada and US contracting the first quarter.... stock market may react negatively...
    05-29-15 09:22 AM
  3. Supa_Fly1's Avatar
    OT but Safety related.
    http://bgr.com/2015/05/28/apple-watc...t-120-dollars/

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    There was an in depth very well written article on how expansive the law in Canada can interpret distracted driving, I get this dumbass didn't get that memo lol

    BlackBerry, accept no substitute nor compromise!
    bbjdog and awindsr like this.
    05-29-15 09:35 AM
  4. bbjdog's Avatar
    Ot: but something to ponder

    Top Links: Meet the modern investor, same as the old (RTGAM)

    Scott Barlow

    A roundup of what The Globe and Mails market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the World Wide Web.

    Bank of America research notes that U.S. investors are flocking to Chinese equities, so we can dispense with the notion that modern investors are more sophisticated than times past. The Internet has provided investors with more tools, but the performance chasing in China highlights the same lottery-loving investor behaviour apparent since the tulip bubble.

    Its true that aggressive short-term traders can potentially make money in China, but that will require an anti-social, all-night work day with a finger constantly hovering over the sell button. For longer-term investors, investment in Chinese stocks is ludicrous by any measure of risk and reward.

    The corporate accounting, for one, is notoriously sketchy, as recent stock value plunges at Hanergy Thin Film and Goldin Group clearly illustrate. The Shanghai Exchange has already rallied 130 per cent since last June and the history of joining that type of rally late is, umm, not good.

    Above all, however, the real problem is that the equity rally has been driven by unsophisticated investors using margin debt at the urging of a government terrified of an economic hard landing,

    The Peoples Daily, a state newspaper, published an interview with an authoritative insider who acknowledged that while an economic slow down is coming, Chinese people still should be using their ample savings to boost the economy

    To China watchers, this kind of statement is pretty clear. Its the government saying read this piece, now go buy some stocks, guys. And so people did. On Monday the Shanghai Composite shot up.

    This is how you know China is worried Business Insider

    A goring concern: The economic dangers of Chinas manic bull market The Economist

    Foreigners pile into China stocks as red flags loom Financial Times

    Forget Greece, Macau Is Worlds Worst Performing Economy Bloomberg

    U.S. investors who, as the above paragraphs show, may not be all that reliable as indicators have been fleeing energy investments in the recent weeks. Bloomberg reports that more than a billion dollars has been withdrawn from the United States Oil fund ETF and includes the following analysis,

    The oil rebound has run out of gas and now you are seeing nervous investors with itchy trigger fingers bailing out of USO, Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said May 27. They dont want to get burned by another drop in oil.

    Everyone Is Fleeing Oil's Biggest Fund Bloomberg

    Charles Sizemore, who not coincidently is the Chief Investment Officer of Sizemore Capital Management, has poured through quarterly regulatory filings to uncover the recent investment activity of some of the worlds largest and most prominent investors. The list includes Uncle Warren himself,

    Buffett added 2.6 million shares last quarter to his already large position in [International Business Machines Inc.]. Hes been steadily building the position since 2011, and it is now his third-largest holding after Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) and Coca-Cola Co (KO). IBM now makes up about 12% of Berkshire Hathaways (BRK-A) stock portfolio.

    Interesting stock picks from other major managers include Banco Santander SA, Bank of America and Canadas own Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.

    The Latest Investing Moves by Seven Masters of the Universe Sizemore Insights

    The finale of Mad Men appears to have coincided with a $25-billion upheaval in the global media and advertising market, as Business Insider reports that a giant swath of corporate behemoths are reviewing their marketing plans with intentions of restructuring,

    The companies include General Mills, Procter & Gamble, Volkswagen, Visa, Sony, Coca-Cola, Citi, 21st Century Fox ... the list goes on. Some of these P&G, Sony, and 21st Century Fox spend more than $1 billion on advertising each year.

    The trend is so unprecedented, US trade magazine Adweek has dubbed it "Mediapalooza 2015 marketers might finally be waking up to new consumer media trends and are exploring whether the agency that helped them spend hundreds of millions of dollars on TV each year has the same expertise to help them shift tens of millions of dollars of their budgets over to online video.

    $25 billion in media money just went up for grabs and nobody can agree on why Business Insider

    Tweet of the day: @pdacosta Canada's #oil rig count has collapsed: @OxfordEconomics pic.twitter.com/pYIOUNrnA7

    Diversion: 10 supposedly futuristic technologies in movies that look so dated now (with video) Gizmodo
    bungaboy, awindsr and 3MIKE like this.
    05-29-15 09:38 AM
  5. sidhuk's Avatar
    FWIW:
    Our friend's latest report:



    If you guys are interested, I can post the rest of his analysis.
    These guys know the timing when releasing negatives. .

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    05-29-15 09:39 AM
  6. notfanboy's Avatar
    FWIW:
    Our friend's latest report:



    If you guys are interested, I can post the rest of his analysis.
    Can you post the rest of the analysis?

    There was a report posted last month which compares the success rate of different analysts. IIRC Faucette had an 88% accuracy rating and just based on this, his predictions have to be respected.
    05-29-15 09:42 AM
  7. bbjdog's Avatar
    Can you post the rest of the analysis?

    There was a report posted last month which compares the success rate of different analysts. IIRC Faucette had an 88% accuracy rating and just based on this, his predictions have to be respected.
    Bet on John Chen or MS(Faucette)?
    awindsr likes this.
    05-29-15 09:52 AM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Although an estimated ⅔ of the enterprise base is still legacy devices
    Let's see how the Leap can arrange that ... I didn't figure (provided Faucette is even close to reality) that only 1/3rd had moved.

    edit: also, anyone to throw a figure about how many devices are concerned (2/3 of ????) ?
    bungaboy and zyben like this.
    05-29-15 09:58 AM
  9. sidhuk's Avatar
    OT. Security.
    http://gizmodo.com/an-irs-online-ser...237/1707674383

    Washington (CNN)The Internal Revenue Service believes that a major cyber breach that allowed criminals to steal the tax returns of more than 100,000 people originated in Russia, Rep. Peter Roskam confirmed to CNN on Thursday.

    The Illinois Republican, who is chairman of a House subcommittee with IRS oversight, said IRS Commissioner John Koskinen told him about the theft's Russian provenance in a phone call.

    CNN first reported the breach's Russian origin on Wednesday.

    "It's a problem, no matter where it's coming from, for the taxpayers and the IRS. It surely doesn't help matters though that it's coming from Russia for all the obvious geopolitical reasons," Roskam said.

    The IRS announced Tuesday that organized crime syndicates used personal data obtained elsewhere to access tax information, which they then used to file $50 million in fraudulent tax refunds.

    Roskam said the breach is concerning because the IRS system wasn't hacked. Using personal data, he said, the thieves "went in the front door of the IRS and unlocked it with the key."

    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/27/po...breach-russia/
    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    05-29-15 10:54 AM
  10. spiller's Avatar
    These guys know the timing when releasing negatives. .

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    Well Chen was pissed at him for releasing FUD during quiet period last time. Guess he wanted to comply and beat it....it starts after today?
    bungaboy, sidhuk and zyben like this.
    05-29-15 11:12 AM
  11. spiller's Avatar
    Looks like we will go down and base at 9.80 until earnings. Hopefully it can stay above that support. Pre ER period is typically punished.
    awindsr likes this.
    05-29-15 11:28 AM
  12. sidhuk's Avatar
    Well Chen was pissed at him for releasing FUD during quiet period last time. Guess he wanted to comply and beat it....it starts after today?
    His or any one else's predictions, does not alter blackberry's day to day working parameters. I would rather believe in JC.

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    bbjdog, Mr BBRY, bungaboy and 2 others like this.
    05-29-15 11:38 AM
  13. spiller's Avatar
    His or any one else's predictions, does not alter blackberry's day to day working parameters. I would rather believe in JC.

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    When media takes the story and says Blackberry only sold 8000 passports in the US it paints a picture that no one is buy them and the phone must suck. And Blackberry couldn't respond to the story.

    It alters perceptive, which impacts brand and desirability, which impacts sales/revenue.
    sati01, awindsr and laketrout73 like this.
    05-29-15 11:44 AM
  14. sidhuk's Avatar
    When media takes the story and says Blackberry only sold 8000 passports in the US it paints a picture that no one is buy them and the phone must suck. And Blackberry couldn't respond to the story.

    It alters perceptive, which impacts brand and desirability, which impacts sales/revenue.
    And JC doesn't know this?

    By. BlackBerry Passport User
    05-29-15 12:03 PM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    Can you post the rest of the analysis?
    Here you go...

    Risk Reward

    Price Target $7
    ~1.5x Price to Tangible Book Value at the end of FY16e (~5.5x EV/FY16e Software + Messaging Revenue)

    Bull $19
    2.0x EV/Bull Case CY15e Sales (4x Price to Tangible Book Value at the end of FY16e)

    Meaningful traction of new products. New BES 12 platform and BlackBerry devices gain share, dramatically slowing the erosion of the enterprise subscriber base (20% software growth, 15% devices growth). Combined with good response to new BBM monetization efforts, the company is able to return to earnings early in FY16 (first half of calendar 2015). The EV/sales multiple could expand to 2.0x from the current 0.8x as these positives are factored in. The company would no longer trade primarily on tangible book value and instead would start to trade again on growth based metrics.

    Base $7
    ~1.5x Price to Tangible Book Value at the end of FY16e (~5.5x EV/FY16e Software + Messaging Revenue)

    Continued cost optimization activities and slowing cash burn. The company arrests its cash burn and moves to cut OPEX further after poor response to its new BES 12 and BlackBerry devices, allowing it to reach and generally maintain cash flow break-even by the end of fiscal 2015 and into fiscal 2016 (early calendar 2015). The company maintains its current asset base, and associated multiple, at 1.5x tangible book value, maintaining turnaround optionality. Grows software & messaging business to a ~$430mm by FY16. 5.5x EV/16e software & messaging revenue comparable to other high growth software names.

    Bear $2
    0.7x Price to Tangible Book Value at end of FY16e

    Failure to enact aggressive cost-cutting measures if new products fail. New management fails to take aggressive cost cutting even as new product launches flounder and subscriber base continues to erode pushing out cash flow break-even indefinitely. Net tangible book shrinks to the $3/share level by the end of May 2016 and the price/tangible book multiple falling with it, to 0.7x, yielding a value of $2.

    Investment Thesis
    CEO Chen will aggressively cut OPEX to preserve assets, allowing for future optionality.
    Pressure will continue to mount on hardware platforms in the form of both lower pricing and lengthening life cycles, with value creation opportunities primarily in software.
    Company will be unable to gain relevancy in enterprise mobile management software market and will continue to lose enterprise subscribers.

    Key Value Drivers
    Can the company stabilize its user base? We are skeptical.
    Will the company be able to achieve ~$600 software & messaging revenue in FY16? We think that number is ambitious as it implies significant ramp in subscribers and ARPU.
    Is there room for a third or fourth independent player in the MDM/messaging platform market? There are already more advanced vendors in the market with proven solutions for heterogeneous device environments.

    Potential Catalysts
    Signs of success with its various turnaround initiatives.
    Hypothetical strategic value of the MDM/content management business to large enterprise equipment and/or software companies.
    Breakeven on hardware business.
    Stem losses in subscriber base.

    Risks to Achieving Price Target
    Management isn’t prepared to further expand operating expense cuts.
    Free software, security advantages, and refreshed hardware aren’t sufficient to stabilize the user base.
    Liquidation of assets persists at Bear $2 below book values.

    Analysis

    MDM market opportunity might be more limited than many would believe. Investors have historically struggled to define the addressable market for MDM because some consumer smartphones used for certain business activities might not be considered devices requiring employer protection and management. For our MOBL initiation, we estimated that there are 30-35mm enterprise subscribers today paying around $5 / mo. Despite potential disagreements on scope, during our recent channel checks we noticed that resellers and customers alike were confident that MDM is already deployed on well over 50% of eligible devices. More concerning is that penetration on a dollar basis could be as high as 75%, as large accounts requiring the most secure mobile environments are already spoken for and the remaining greenfield opportunities are largely limited to low-budget deployments.

    Standalone mobile security platforms running out of growth? MS Software analyst Keith Weiss's 2015 State of Security Spending found a sequential decrease in respondents citing “proliferation of mobile devices” as a driver of security-related spend, which fits well with our suspicion that the market for stand-alone mobile security platforms is more limited than many would suppose. In addition, our conversations suggest smartphone manufacturers are increasingly looking to work directly with enterprise software providers to securely deliver applications and content on their respective smartphones without third-party platforms including BES12, MobileIron, Airwatch, et al.

    Tough pricing environment likely to worsen. Our checks also indicate MDM licenses on average are being sold at ~$4-$7 per month per device, which is often a discount to listed prices but is roughly in-line with our own estimates above. But we also confirmed in our recent conversations that carriers are negotiating wholesale prices as low as $2-$5 per month per device. MS telco analyst Simon Flannery highlighted the carriers' recent shift in focus towards growing their enterprise businesses and their increasingly aggressive pricing and bundling strategy. As MDM continues to be bundled with larger service agreements in an already saturated market, we believe prices will continue to be pressured across all enterprise channels, which is distinct from the relatively price insensitive purchase decisions we were seeing 2-4 quarters ago. To make matters worse, new MDM solutions continue to enter the market (the latest rumblings coming from Google and Microsoft) while VMware is also aggressively bundling Airwatch with its datacenter products.

    Revisiting BlackBerry management's FY16 software target. In our BBRY downgrade published November 19, 2014, we noted management's stated objective of collecting $9/month in ARPU from enterprise subscribers for secure mobile management towards its guidance of $500mm in FY16 software revenue. Our checks on the MDM pricing environment reaffirms our view that achieving management's goals are unrealistic, at least with BES12 as the main driver. Our own estimates call for $8/month with 6.5mm subscribers (forecasting $409mm in FY16 software revenue), which would likely require acquiring more software assets at potentially dilutive multiples.

    BES12 improving but a lot of work needed post-EZ Pass. Our post-EZPass checks to date found conversion rates at roughly 25% of the purported 6.8mm licenses issued. Activations were largely for BB10 devices (which represent a minority v. BB5 and BB7 devices) while traction with iOS and Android devices remains limited at least until existing MDM licenses with the likes of MobileIron, etc. expire. Positively, many of our contacts were satisfied with recent improvements to the BES12 platform, offering centralized management of both BlackBerry and non-BlackBerry devices and comparable features to competitor platforms. We think platform developments improve BBRY's odds of winning non-BBRY devices in hybrid environments, but we remain skeptical given our most recent CIO Survey finding BlackBerry continuing to trail its MDM peers in evaluation opportunities. We also note that our conversations suggest BlackBerry's enterprise channel relationships are still not fully in place, which is likely necessary to meeting management's FY16 target on top of hitting their aforementioned ARPU targets.

    New device sales look languid. An estimated ⅔ of the enterprise base are still legacy devices (roughly 4- 5mm devices, many of the which were released over 4 years ago), which could be a tailwind to meeting management's software target because BES12 offers little benefit to legacy devices. But even after a full quarter of the Classic in the US, our checks found the refresh cycle at enterprise accounts underwhelming to date. It is possible that the current lack of momentum is attributed to the channel relationships described above, but based on our recent enterprise checks and our recent CIO Survey finding respondents expecting to purchase fewer BlackBerry devices this year, we believe that enterprises largely plan to shrink their fleet for the forseeable future. On the retail side, our recent checks found sell-through rates similar to those during the launch weeks at VZ and T. Even with the addition of TMUS we suspect the current run rate across all US carriers is roughly 8000 - 9000 units per week, likely insufficient to meeting the previously stated 10mm annual run rate required to break even on devices sales (although that threshold now is likely lower after recently reported cost cutting).

    Our findings reaffirm our conviction in our Underweight rating and $7 PT. Our checks to date on BES12, new handset devices and the broader MDM market lead us to believe BlackBerry is not on pace to achieve its FY16 software and messaging revenue targets. We expect management to reduce its outlook over the next couple of quarters as its channel relationships fail to gain timely traction, BES12 conversion occurs more slowly and more difficult than expected, and new handsets sales fail to spark momentum. We expect the stock to trade down as shareholders begin to reevaluate the trajectory of BlackBerry's enterprise software business. We continue to believe the company is preserving assets and optionality well, and that an implied EV of $2.5bn for a company eventually building a $600mm/yr software and messaging business over the next 2-4 years seems reasonable to us.
    rarsen, sati01, bungaboy and 6 others like this.
    05-29-15 12:14 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    05-29-15 12:16 PM
  17. bbjdog's Avatar
    Anyone have Benzinga pro account?

    Fairfax Financial CEO: blackberry is The 'Only' Phone To Use

    I can't copy and past the note.

    Thanks in advance!
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-29-15 12:22 PM
  18. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Hey ya'll. I'm alive, just so you know! Hope everyone is well and so on!
    05-29-15 12:25 PM
  19. Corbu's Avatar
    Anyone have Benzinga pro account?

    Fairfax Financial CEO: blackberry is The 'Only' Phone To Use

    I can't copy and past the note.

    Thanks in advance!
    Fairfax Financial Holdings CEO Prem Watsa said in a Financial Post interview that BlackBerry Ltd. is the "only" smartphone "you should use for heaven's sake." Fairfax Financial holds more than 9 percent of BlackBerry stock at an average price in 2012 of $17.

    The stock recently traded at $9.92, down 1 percent.

    Watsa also said that BlackBerry's smartphone was "beautiful."

    "This is safer, it's got a 24-hour battery, and a beautiful screen," Watsa said. Fairfax Financial led a bid for BlackBerry back in 2013, bidding $4.7 billion. However, the letter of intent did not have a financing component, and Fairfax was unable to make a deal. At current prices, BlackBerry's market capitalization is $5.3 billion.

    Watsa was asked why his firm, known for value-oriented strategies, put money into BlackBerry. He said, "These things go in cycles," adding that "BlackBerry used to be $140 (a share). Every stock analyst loved it. Today it's $10. Few stock analysts like it." Conversely, Watsa pointed to Apple Inc. as a point in how companies can move in the opposite direction.

    "You have to remember that the business flows up and down," he said.

    BlackBerry, International Business Machines Corp. and Resolute Forest Products Inc account for 76 percent of Fairfax Financial's U.S. equity exposure, according to a recent regulatory filing.
    And this is the FP link:
    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...io-alger-story

    It has already been posted, I believe.
    05-29-15 12:40 PM
  20. Corbu's Avatar
    bbjdog, kadakn01, Mr BBRY and 7 others like this.
    05-29-15 12:42 PM
  21. bbjdog's Avatar
    And this is the FP link:
    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...io-alger-story

    It has already been posted, I believe.
    What would I do without you Corbu?

    Thanks mate!
    05-29-15 12:42 PM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    What would I do without you Corbu?

    Thanks mate!
    05-29-15 12:43 PM
  23. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    I think they said 8000 a week I know that not good but how will JC comment on this and not somehow not break SEC rules
    When media takes the story and says Blackberry only sold 8000 passports in the US it paints a picture that no one is buy them and the phone must suck. And Blackberry couldn't respond to the story.

    It alters perceptive, which impacts brand and desirability, which impacts sales/revenue.
    bbjdog, bungaboy and zyben like this.
    05-29-15 12:52 PM
  24. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    indeed What will we do without CORBU???
    What would I do without you Corbu?

    Thanks mate!
    05-29-15 01:00 PM
  25. bbjdog's Avatar
    indeed What will we do without CORBU???
    I would be a lost puppy!
    05-29-15 01:39 PM
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