[Corbu]

#BBFactCheck: Forecasting Growth | Inside BlackBerry

[Corbu]

I don't recall seeing this posted yet:
BlackBerry Buying WatchDox (Nice!) … MobileIron Lowers Guidance for Q1 2015 (Not so Nice)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/black...inkId=13832500

[W Hoa]

Thanks for sharing but didn't see anything about IBM. I didn't click on the link so..

#BBFactCheck

Have a look at IBM's website. Last app on the page. It's called Plan Flight. Feel free to click on the link this time.

IBM MobileFirst for iOS Travel & Transportation Solutions

[3MIKE]

This is an article from Seeking Alfa

The link is attached if you want to click





Orange Peel Investments
Long/short equity, event-driven, research analyst, activist investor
Profile| Send Message| Follow (839 followers) *
Government Hacks Highlight BlackBerry's Value
Apr. 29, 2015 8:34 AM ET *|* 13 comments *|* About: BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)
Disclosure: The author is long BBRY. (More...)
Summary
BlackBerry is a buy; we believe it's in the midst of a major turnaround.
This weekend's article about Russian hackers penetrating the president's e-mail is a stark highlight of BlackBerry's benefits.
Using a sum-of-the-parts valuation, we believe BlackBerry is worth $16-20 today.
By Scott Tzu

We've been talking about the benefits of being long BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) in our last couple of articles. Never mind the fact that a BBM spin-off, in and of itself, could justify BBRY's current market price and then some, but we're also bullish on the coming direction of the company, its recent acquisitions, and management's strategy.

One of the reasons that we think BBRY (the equity) could perform well is that we think BlackBerry could work just fine as a company who specializes in security first, and one who sells BES, BBM, QNX, and mobile hardware second. The tie that binds all of these services is security, and the company expanded its secure environment with its recent purchase of WatchDox.

This weekend, BlackBerry got some free press (as it generally does each time someone has been hacked). Major hacks have become major stories. Not just things like the Target (NYSE:TGT) data breach, but hacks like this one and new threats of cybercrime from terrorist organizations. This brand new NY Times article detailing President Obama's e-mail correspondence leaking to Russian hackers once again places emphasis on BlackBerry and its role in the world of security.

Just read the opening couple of lines from this weekend's NY Times article:

Some of President Obama's email correspondence was swept up by Russian hackers last year in a breach of the White House's unclassified computer system that was far more intrusive and worrisome than has been publicly acknowledged, according to senior American officials briefed on the investigation.

The hackers, who also got deeply into the State Department's unclassified system, do not appear to have penetrated closely guarded servers that control the message traffic from Mr. Obama's BlackBerry, which he or an aide carries constantly.
The article followed up, saying:

Mr. Obama is no stranger to computer-network attacks: His 2008 campaign was hit by Chinese hackers. Nonetheless, he has long been a frequent user of email, and publicly fought the Secret Service in 2009 to retain his BlackBerry, a topic he has joked about in public. He was issued a special smartphone, and the list of those he can exchange emails with is highly restricted.

What these articles never include is a line that says "BlackBerry has been hacked." It's also, like in the case of the Sony hack, that people who went with other services all fall back to their BlackBerrys to "batten down the hatches" and keep things safe moving forward.

The resultant headlines from hacks like those look like this:

(click to enlarge)


BlackBerry is a safe haven in the world of security, and that's one of its biggest assets. As a shareholder, if you don't think larger companies like Samsung find this valuable, you're not looking at BlackBerry through an M&A lens.

This brings us back to an article we wrote about how BlackBerry was held near and dear to the German government. BlackBerry and one of the world's largest governments got closer in November of 2014, solidifying a vote of confidence in the company's security capabilities.

BlackBerry knows that security is going to be its "thing," and the company is pushing to expand the secure services it offers. BlackBerry announced on Tuesday of last week that it intends to buy WatchDox, which is a company that allows file sharing with a serious emphasis on security. It's an acquisition that allows BlackBerry to dip into the market share currently held by Box, and the company plans on adding the service to the BES 12. The acquisition is being heralded as a good move. WatchDox is to Dropbox what BlackBerry is to other phones. The same functionality and service, but far more secure. From a Firstpost article:

When files are shared through WatchDox, they retain their security wrappers even after the data leaves the corporate network, which is usually when data is at its most vulnerable. On services like Dropbox, files are usually opened in another application and the user can choose to copy, forward, edit or print, without any need for Dropbox, but on WatchDox, if the security settings on data disallows sharing, copying, printing or editing, etc, the user cannot do anything and work on the document happens within the WatchDox application. Further, in case privileges are changed after the data leaves the corporate network, for instance if the sender removes access for the recipient, the recipient cannot open the file.

This helps fill a hole in the company's enterprise portfolio, where it already has secure e-mail and secure messaging (through BBM). Now, the environment of security spans across another way to share and store files.

As we said in our last article, we're not expecting BlackBerry to turn back into RIMM and ever again have a $100 per share price tag. It's just not reasonable. However, to claim the company doesn't hold its own spot in the world of super-secure communications is a different story. BlackBerry has a role to play, and it's going to be able to do it as a consistently profitable company valued at far more than what it is valued today.

Why is mobile security important?

Is there money to be made?

Judging by a couple of litmus tests, we think that position itself for this specific growing market is a key move for BlackBerry.

First, this report from Research and Markets states that the "mobile security market is expected to grow from $1507.7 million in 2014 to $5754.8 million by 2019, at an estimated Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 30.7% from 2014 to 2019." It goes on to state:

The global mobile security market is in the developing stage with extensive growth. Enterprises are emphasizing more on enterprise mobility and mobile security solutions, which helps in protecting data while roaming. As the increasing demand of smart devices such as smartphones, laptops, tablets, and personal digital assistants which are commonly used for both personal and business purpose showcase tremendous opportunity for the global market.

Channel NewsAsia out of Singapore also recently agreed with this analysis:

Security companies are trying to keep pace with the rapid evolution of mobile devices. Recent incidents of cyber attacks and breaches have raised awareness of the need to enhance security. Industry players have said this presents an opportunity for them to step up and offer solutions.

So we think there is immense value for BlackBerry as security continues to grow.

We also think this reputation will begin to trickle down to the everyday user, which is why we think we see the number of BBM users growing. Infonetics agrees with us and thinks that by 2017, consumer mobile security will be more important than enterprise.

(click to enlarge)


This could literally result in BBRY moving "back into the mainstream." Eventually, everyone is going to realize that they want top-level security for most of their day-to-day messaging and e-mail. BlackBerry makes that easy; it's no more expensive, it's easy to get a hold on, and its brand is recognized as the best in what it does.

By pairing BBRY's security with already existing names like iPhone and Android (as it has already begun to do), by virtue of a buyout, or by virtue of organically launching innovative ways to secure market share, we believe BlackBerry could command as much as 50% of the consumer space - strictly when it comes to security (be it on BlackBerry phones or software on other devices) - over the course of the coming 5-10 years. This is a best-case scenario, but one we think plausible if the company gets momentum behind it and the gate begins to "swing the other direction" on the company's turnaround. It's likely it would be acquired before then, however.

Arriving at our price target is a combination of securing space in this new market, while monetizing the company's assets that we already think are worth up to double what they're priced at. We continue to be long BlackBerry, with a $16-20 price target for the shorter term. As a reminder, here are the parts we used to value BlackBerry:

This Yahoo article assumed that BlackBerry Messenger could have been worth as much as $2.5 billion in early 2014. Since then, John Chen has stated he would not sell BBM for $2 billion. Jokingly, in this interview, he suggested a $19 billion price.
This AllThingsD article notes that the company's patent portfolio alone could be worth $2-3 billion.
The company's QNX platform is worth anywhere between $200-400 million, depending on whom you ask.
Other assets (phone hardware, BES) and intangibles, like the name's worth in the world of security, are probably worth around $1-2 billion.
On top of that, BlackBerry is sitting on about $3 billion in cash and about $1.7 billion in debt. That's another $1.3 billion in equity.
Totaled, and conservatively (we believe) calculated, our above segmentation of the business shows us significant upside to BlackBerry's current share price. The company's current market cap, at $9.80/share, is $5.23 billion. The sum of the parts laid out above is closer to being worth about $9 billion, and that doesn't take into account recurring profitability and future cash flows, which it's looking like BlackBerry is well on its way to serving up.

None of this takes into account BBM, if spun off and made public, which we think would skyrocket its valuation.

BlackBerry's secure communication, as one again highlighted through the security failures of others, will continue to be the company's driving focus and key asset sought after by potential suitors.

Then, you need to think about the value that all of BlackBerry's assets could provide to a company like Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), and think about a premium that one of these companies would be willing to pay for these assets. Suddenly, a $20 billion buyout doesn't exactly seem out of the question.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/3115...164c7&uprof=75

[Corbu]

Remember the collaboration between Apple and IBM for new business apps that sent BBRY shares plummeting?

iPad glitch grounds American Airlines flights - Apr. 29, 2015

By the way, that story also made it to the BBC's website:
American Airlines planes grounded by iPad app error - BBC News

[awindsr]

I am appalled that a major commercial airline would rely on iPads for navigation!!! OMG!! I have an iPad with Navionics software on my 40 foot sailboat as a BACKUP to a much more robust and reliable dedicated navigation GPS/Chartplotter system. What is wrong with this world?...I will not set foot on an AA flight...it's a good thing to save paper, what about passengers' lives? BTW, I also keep paper charts of everywhere I sail as a reliable third backup...but often refer to them for planning and tighter navigation areas. It's only a matter of time before we have an NTSB report citing faulty iPad navigation leading to a disaster...this is not Apple bashing, it's common freaking sense!

Posted via CB10

I found that quite disturbing also. Is this becoming an adopted standard in aviation?

Posted via CB10

[bergeron37]

My boss has a Bombardier Challenger 605 and the pilots use the same technology on their ipads as American Airlines. Might have to forward this to him...

[W Hoa]

By the way, that story also made it to the BBC's website:

The Verge is reporting "Kristin Thompson, a passenger flying from JFK to Seattle on SS235, tells The Verge that two systems failed and had to be "completely rebooted."

iPad app issue grounds "a few dozen" American Airlines flights | The Verge

According to the BBC American Airlines pilots also use an app called FliteDeck, which is made by the Boeing subsidiary Jeppesen.

[Komoto]

I think we are starting to see the unravelling of the social media bubble. Premier watsa warned about this some time ago.

Will be painful for a lot of people. I think BBM must be one of the few social media platforms which is not ridiculously valued.

Posted via CB10

[jake simmons3]

I think we are starting to see the unravelling of the social media bubble. Premier watsa warned about this some time ago.

Will be painful for a lot of people. I think BBM must be one of the few social media platforms which is not ridiculously valued.

Posted via CB10

In all reality BBM has a valuation of 0 right now

[Corbu]

OT:
More on Samsung, in the context that we are all familiar with:
Samsung Ramps Up Enterprise Push with New Galaxy Phones - The CIO Report - WSJ

Samsung Electronics Co. is upping its enterprise push with its Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge mobile devices as it contends with Apple Inc.’s iPhone.

Improved security offerings, partnerships with major enterprise technology vendors and a better user experience are all features Samsung says will help it compete inside companies. The new devices, which run on Google Inc.’s Android platform, also have more processing power meant to run business-critical applications. Those features suggest smartphones and other mobile devices are taking a step closer to replacing the PC as a primary work tool.

Samsung wants to convince customers that their devices are flexible enough to manage both work and personal use. At the same time, it will need to convince CIOs that it can offer high performance, robust security and the ability to integrate with existing enterprise systems.

Samsung’s enterprise outreach efforts, which include supplying software development kits to companies like Oracle Corp. and Salesforce.com Inc. as well as mobile device management and single sign-on vendors, comes as the company faces stiff competition from Apple in the enterprise. At Apple’s earning call Monday, CEO Tim Cook touted the company’s business app partnership with International Business Machines Corp. “The IBM partnership, I think, is in its early stages in terms of bearing fruit here, but everything I see I like on it,” Mr. Cook said.

A major element of Samsung’s enterprise push is its mobile security platform, Knox. The company has focused on making sure Knox meets federal government security standards, and now is pushing into regulated verticals like finance and health care. Knox can separate work and personal data on the same device, and hardware security tools can monitor the device from the moment it’s turned on. CIOs or IT executives would still be able to manage employee devices, said Eric McCarty, vice president for mobile product marketing at Samsung Business, part of Samsung Electronics America.

Vendor partnerships will also play a role in determining Samsung’s future in the enterprise. The company shares its software development kits with major vendors, allowing them to write APIs specific to Samsung products. The Galaxy S6 devices will also come pre-loaded with Microsoft Corp.’s Office suite and OneDrive, Mr. McCarty said.

Tweaks to the hardware and user experience, such as a better camera, could bring more functionality into the workplace. Samsung is also working with companies to help them integrate their proprietary, home-grown applications so they run just as well on a Samsung device as they do on a competitor’s phone.

In March, WSJ tech columnist Joanna Stern said the Galaxy S6 devices Samsung has taken “direct aim” at Apple’s iPhone, and is winning in the hardware department. But the Galaxy’s user experience and software platform continue to lag, giving customers two separate App stores and browsers as well as unnecessary widgets.

[DaSchwantz]

I am appalled that a major commercial airline would rely on iPads for navigation!!! OMG!! I have an iPad with Navionics software on my 40 foot sailboat as a BACKUP to a much more robust and reliable dedicated navigation GPS/Chartplotter system. What is wrong with this world?...I will not set foot on an AA flight...it's a good thing to save paper, what about passengers' lives? BTW, I also keep paper charts of everywhere I sail as a reliable third backup...but often refer to them for planning and tighter navigation areas. It's only a matter of time before we have an NTSB report citing faulty iPad navigation leading to a disaster...this is not Apple bashing, it's common freaking sense!

Posted via CB10

I've been concerned about this kind of thing for a while, irrespective of my BBRY long position, and want to avoid companies that engage in this kind of silliness (i.e. using iOS or Android consumer devices for mission critical functionality). Has anyone seen anyone trying to compile some sort of list anywhere?

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

What will we define as a success in relation to the Leap?

Posted via CB10

Fleets. Fleets. And, eventually.. Fleets.

Posted via CB10

[MollyMorton]

Very OT: I wish BBM had an italics option.

Posted via CB10

[ibpluto]

I've been concerned about this kind of thing for a while, irrespective of my BBRY long position, and want to avoid companies that engage in this kind of silliness (i.e. using iOS or Android consumer devices for mission critical functionality). Has anyone seen anyone trying to compile some sort of list anywhere?

Posted via CB10

Ditto. It boggles my mind how the majority (especially some CIO's) mistake popularity, for functionality.

Oh well, look on the bright side I guess..... Snap Chat works for them ~shrug~

CB10'n it....via da Z30

[Corbu]

BlackBerry Execs Contribute Big Ideas to Milken Conference | Inside BlackBerry

[Bacon Munchers]

Remember the collaboration between Apple and IBM for new business apps that sent BBRY shares plummeting? Here's one.

IBM - Enter Plan Flight, a mobile app made exclusively for iOS that puts real-time analytics into the aviator�s hands�transforming guesswork into fact-based decision making.



iPad glitch grounds American Airlines flights - Apr. 29, 2015

The rest of that news headline, that was edited, stated that the pilots were able to eventually resume flight when a Sony executive on board remembered that he had a PlayBook down in the corner of his briefcase....

[Bacon Munchers]

Woman in the background recording it on her Passport

Attachment 350032

Ambers sister?

[3MIKE]

The rest of that news headline, that was edited, stated that the pilots were able to eventually resume flight when a Sony executive on board remembered that he had a PlayBook down in the corner of his briefcase....

Whhammmmm! XD

[BACK-2-BLACK]

I am appalled that a major commercial airline would rely on iPads for navigation!!! OMG!! I have an iPad with Navionics software on my 40 foot sailboat as a BACKUP to a much more robust and reliable dedicated navigation GPS/Chartplotter system. What is wrong with this world?...I will not set foot on an AA flight...it's a good thing to save paper, what about passengers' lives? BTW, I also keep paper charts of everywhere I sail as a reliable third backup...but often refer to them for planning and tighter navigation areas. It's only a matter of time before we have an NTSB report citing faulty iPad navigation leading to a disaster...this is not Apple bashing, it's common freaking sense!

Posted via CB10

I agree ! (BTW, thanks WHOA for posting)

I thought they still had one set of the "paper" navigation manuals as BackUp in the cockpit?

It has saved them (AA) money on fuel costs, being able to digitally load iPads with all that info instead of having pilots lug around the big manuals....

but still....

..... the correlation between a major airline using/relying on a "iPad" for navigation is damn scary !!!


What if there was no issue using the tech (uploading the info, running the app, etc)..... but the app had a virus?

How safe do you feel about those coordinates !!??!?!

I understand the need to cost save..... but not at the expense of a potential safety matter !!!!

Use some other type of digital media to replace the hard copies... but jesus.... not an over the counter general consumer product !!!

This (for me) is a MAJOR reason to boycott AA.

[Bacon Munchers]

The Verge is reporting "Kristin Thompson, a passenger flying from JFK to Seattle on SS235, tells The Verge that two systems failed and had to be "completely rebooted."

iPad app issue grounds "a few dozen" American Airlines flights | The Verge

According to the BBC American Airlines pilots also use an app called FliteDeck, which is made by the Boeing subsidiary Jeppesen.

Yeah, unfortunately, this new app industry is a four-way uncontrolled intersection right now.
When an accident occurs, then the street lighting will go in (enter BlackBerry) to remedy the situation.

BTW - Delta airlines is a BlackBerry client. Perhaps they will launch the fabulous BlackBerry / samsung tablet with an appropriate app for the others' to learn from?

[BACK-2-BLACK]

[Pilot #1]:
Hold on a sec...
lemme double pump the home button and bring up Candy Crush..
you know, its like trying to fly into 3 consecutive cumulus clouds
high score here I come!


[Pilot #2]:
Don't be silly
Load up one of 51233463 the flight simulators

(gets on the mic)

"Buckle Up Everyone !"
(turns on seat belt light)

[jojowan]

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/microso...social_twitter

Quite a smart way to increase the number of apps for Windows to be honest. Look forward to seeing BBRY's solution beyond the amazon appstore.

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000375117

Regardless of TWTR valuation, what a well-thought investment strategy this guy has (lol!). I hope they do a follow-up with him tomorrow morning.

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

Gartman buys Twitter

Regardless of TWTR valuation, what a well-thought investment strategy this guy has (lol!). I hope they do a follow-up with him tomorrow morning.

Posted via CB10

hahaha.... in other words, don't trust us with your money. We will buy based on a minutes worth of research.