View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. anon(5906760)'s Avatar
    Now is the time to buy. In a month they'll be back up to 12 no doubt.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 12:01 PM
  2. JonCBK's Avatar
    Hmm, strange dip in price today. I don't get it. In fact, I just increased my long position by 10%.

    I also don't agree with the below analysis from Merrill Lynch:
    Price objective basis & risk
    Our $6.00 PO is based on roughly 1.2x P/S our FY16E Sales. This multiple is in line with the one accorded to similarly challenged handset companies. Upside risks to our price objective: 1) Success of new product launches, 2) Restructuring efforts, including any potential change to management strategy, 3) Acquisition. Downside risks to our PO: 1) Slowdown in smartphone market due to macroeconomic weakness, [Disagree here, smartphone market is huge and its growth or lack thereof is not relevant for a niche player like BBRY. 2) Margin pressure from increasing lower priced hardware sales, [Nope, Analyst missed the boat here. Android manufacturers are competing against each other in margin business, BBRY, like Apple, is selling a unique product that only they can sell. New phones are build on old tech and will have nice margins at the price that they are being announced at.3) Competitive risks from Apple, Google (Android), Nokia, Samsung and HTC, [Fine, but these guys have always been there. Not sure why Nokia is listed though.4) Increased investment required to support new products, and 5) Emerging markets and prepaid subscribers growing proportion of the product mix (margin risks)[Classic and Leap, which are priced and designed for enterprise sales will get into the mix this year. Margins are going to be fine, as evidenced by nice cash flow on very modest revenue in the last quarter.].
    03-30-15 12:03 PM
  3. MollyMorton's Avatar
    Interesting enough, John Chen is now out of the money in his stock option package, he won't make a dime after all the time he has dedicated to this company. I would think he and his bond holders are watching this day and getting fired up about it. The trifecta of bashers are enjoying their day.
    Surely, they should already be fired up and doing their best? With respect, I don't see how us getting killed in the markets once again is going to be some kind of felix culpa.

    Posted via CB10
    app_Developer likes this.
    03-30-15 12:04 PM
  4. Munx's Avatar
    Friday we witnessed Chen deliver his worst performance to date. Why do I say this? Four reasons:

    1. A very poor revenue print - $660M.
    2. No update or guidance on BES12 uptake - 2200 new customers is not meaningful as this figure has no frame of reference.
    3. Backing off of previous $500M/y software revenue targets (ie. lowering guidance on a key number).
    4. Announcing that an acquisition is coming and this is one way they intend to hopefully hit the now stretch target of $500M/y - implies that organic software growth not nearly strong enough to achieve target.

    All combined I was very disappointed with what I heard and wrote some short term calls on Friday.

    This is my blood on the streets scenario that I mentioned was a real possibility before earnings.

    Good luck to all.
    03-30-15 12:05 PM
  5. Eumaeus's Avatar
    Question, but first let me start off by saying I'm a long. Many people compare BlackBerry to that of Apple back in 1998. Where their share in the computer market fell all the way down to 2%, from 40%. So my question is, did AAPL have to deal with people not creating applications for AAPL computers, or were applications pretty universal for computers? I never owned an Apple so I really don't even know the answer to that.
    You've gotten a few answers, but with some confusion about the timeline.

    Apple was effectively toast in 1997, and were definitely in danger of having all major software developers abandon the platform. This was when Jobs came back. He identified Ive's iMac idea (transparent plastic, all-in-one) as the thing that might generate enough buzz to save them in the short term. He went around in person to demo the iMac to studios, notably Quicken, Adobe, and Microsoft. This must have been one hell of a sales-pitch, because he got a them to re-commit to developing Mac software for the immediate future.

    At the same time, he settled a long-standing legal dispute over QuickTime with Microsoft. Microsoft got: the lawsuit to go away, and some insurance in their anti-competitive behavior problems with the DOJ ("Look... we have a major competitor!"). Apple got: a commitment for 5 more years of development on MS Office for the Mac, a public vote-of confidence from MS buying $150,000,000 in non-voting stock. MS sold that stock a few years later at a substantial profit.

    1997: iMac
    1998-2000: Building media software: iTunes, iPhoto, iMovie.
    2001: Beginning to adopt the Unix-based OS X, built from NeXT
    2001: iPod
    2006: By this point, Apple's share price was up to $80, from $6/share in 1997. That took nine years. Apple passed Dell in market-cap at this point. They dropped all DRM from iTunes music at this point, too.
    Apple didn't adopt Intel processors until 2006, so that can hardly be given credit for their return to success.
    2007: The iPhone, and we know how that turned out.

    So there was no one thing that saved Apple. And it wasn't obvious at any particular point that they had been "saved". It took years and years, a succession of thoughtful, careful steps, most of them not that dramatic on their own. Oh, and at almost every step there were choruses of nay-sayers, scoffers, and doom-sayers (sound familiar, here on Crackberry?), even as their market-cap exceeded half a trillion dollars.

    But back to the main point... it was an aggressive, personal sales pitch from Jobs that convinced developers that the platform had a future. A sales pitch combined with a real, about-to-be-released product, the iMac, with a clear narrative for how this would be a big deal. In terms of what Apple sells today, it wasn't that big, but it was for the time, and was accompanying by an aggressive and effective advertising campaign, and innovative new approaches to point-of-sale (those CompUSA stores-in-a-store).

    This is all worth remembering as Chen makes incremental steps to re-shape Blackberry. He is not going to pull off some magic trick that returns BBRY to $150/share in three years. But there is historical precedent to suggest that $80 after nine years is not impossible.
    03-30-15 12:07 PM
  6. MollyMorton's Avatar
    The key, though, is the aggressive marketing by Jobs, isn't it? He was also a PR genius, which Chen is not. This isn't a swipe at Chen. Chen is a highly competent man, but he's not the sort of visionary that Jobs was.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 12:14 PM
  7. digitalsurfboard's Avatar

    A lot of folks won't agree with a word I've written, but let's see how things turn out in three months' time...

    Posted via CB10
    i completely agree with your entire post.

    they need to improve the image of the company in the mind of consumers. because those same consumers are the ones that are in positions to make decisions in enterprise regarding software and services.

    their current advertising sucks. and i'm not talking about the quantity. i'm talking about the ads they do run during maple leaf and raptors games. those ads suck
    03-30-15 12:19 PM
  8. spiller's Avatar
    Bought some here at 8.81. it seems oversold now and 8.80 is good support. I thin with 8.80 previous gap also filled.
    Nice entry. I waited for it to get up to 8.90 again then put a few more pennies (increased holding 2%).
    morganplus8, rarsen and bbjdog like this.
    03-30-15 12:27 PM
  9. digitalsurfboard's Avatar
    PS. My cousin, who I commiserate with on BBM about our BB investement, just bought 1000 more shares. he wants to buy 5000 more shares but his wife wont let him. she's freaking out. lol. he's pissed that he can't buy more.

    i can see her throwing the passport he just bought her at his face when he gets home tonight. hot blooded italian. lol

    i'm supposed to swing by this week to pick up one of their unused Z10s to give to my dad. but i think i'll hold off on my visit until the SP goes back up. she'll probably yell at me. haha
    03-30-15 12:28 PM
  10. spiller's Avatar
    It sure would be nice to see some money pour in for 2nd half of today. Come out green and make ALL of those reports useful for the waste bucket.
    03-30-15 12:31 PM
  11. CDM76's Avatar
    So is the AAPL turnaround a good comparison to that of BBRY? Almost seems as though you can only buy a BlackBerry device as your second device otherwise you severely lack the capabilities that iPhone users have. I only have a BlackBerry and I'm unable to watch Netflix, use Uber, and many other apps that people use for convenience in their everyday lives.

    So is Apples turnaround similar to that of what BlackBerry has to compete with?
    Try the Amazon store. Netflix and the others are there.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 12:34 PM
  12. Munx's Avatar
    It sure would be nice to see some money pour in for 2nd half of today. Come out green and make ALL of those reports useful for the waste bucket.
    It would be nice. But there are no meaningful upside drivers in the near term other than partnerships (meaningful ones), acquisitions (could hurt BBRY SP short term) or buy out.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 12:35 PM
  13. bbjdog's Avatar
    I just love it when all the naysayer come out. These last couple of days is exactly why Blackberry should never give info to analyst. You want information waste some capital! All the positives of the ER are not mentioned at all, but negativity rules the media.
    03-30-15 12:40 PM
  14. primusd's Avatar
    General q - do most folks on here trade the NASDAQ BBRY vs. the TSE BB?

    I'm looking to re-establish my position and historically bought TSE BB, but contemplating making the switch.

    03-30-15 12:41 PM
  15. jojowan's Avatar
    Why suddenly everybody becomes so pessimistic here? Is share price such an important factor to affect your mood and your faith in John Chen and the company? Ok there are really some big challenges on devices. But one important message to me from the earnings call was that BES is gaining stronger traction than expected (much stronger than those suggested by the self made surveys conducted by MS and GS). 2200 new customer wins in the quarter without the EZ Pass! Why no one elaborates more on this?

    I saw some of you saying that the company should not cut its marketing expenses. Yes I do understand your frustration. I am so frustrated too when more than 95% of people I know have never heard of Passport. But I am not surprised especially in my living place Hong Kong. It is because the same thing also happened to Q10,Z10 and Z30 before. People in HK only know 9900 just because it was provided by their company. Blackberry or RIM was never a sexy company that people here will never find about its news or new models on their own. More importantly, even when I tell them about the strengths of the Passport (the touch keyboard, the battery, the blend, the hub and the screen, etc), they will still stick with their iPhone just because of the app availability and good camera (and also their perception that iPhone is user friendly and secure).

    So in my opinion, I agree with John Chen in cutting marketing expenses because stopping the cash burn is always the top priority. But if we are going to spend more money on advertising again, the target audience should be the enterprise customers. It is because what they care about are battery life, security and ease for users to write emails, instead of app availability and camera. In fact, many people in HK with their work phone changed from 9900 to iPhone are not happy because they can no longer reply emails as fast as they were on 9900. And actually there are still lots of companies still using 9900. We should give them some incentives to change to Classic. I think in this way the money can be spent more wisely instead of having more advertisements on the consumer side to fight against iPhone. Yes more people will know about Passport but I don't think it will make them giving up their iPhones.

    We need to accept the fact that iPhone6 is a much better product than Passport and Classic in the consumer market. But in the enterprise market, the conclusion is different.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 12:43 PM
  16. spiller's Avatar
    They gotta spread the FUD. Take the low and print it!
    03-30-15 12:52 PM
  17. bbjdog's Avatar
    03-30-15 12:55 PM
  18. La Emperor's Avatar
    Maybe Chen can allocate some funds, and announce a staggered buyback plan over a period of time. Great for days like these. I've seen it done with other companies so it can be worth exploring just to fend off the seemingly coordinated bear attacks. Just not sure if it would work well with the bondholders, et al.
    Last edited by La Emperor; 03-30-15 at 01:09 PM.
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-30-15 12:55 PM
  19. Corbu's Avatar
    Pretty good summary. Let's give these analysts the opportunity to expose their contradictions... And hopefully, one day, we'll be able to remind them...
    BlackBerry Drops 8%: RBC?s Upbeat, But Street Mostly Still Skeptical on Software - Tech Trader Daily -

    The Street today continues to debate the lower-than-expected fiscal Q4 revenue report by BlackBerry (BBRY) on Friday morning, accompanied by a surprise profit.

    BlackBerry shares today are down 66 cents, or 7%, at $8.80, after a 1.7% rise on Friday.

    During an appearance on CNBC on Friday, CEO John Chen defended the company’s progress with its “BES 12” software for enterprises, part of what Chen expects will be $600 million in software revenue.

    “BES 12 is one of the highlights, it is the only reason why we would grow software sales 24% sequentially.” He said the company has 30,000 customers using some version of BES and many are moving to BES 12.

    Regarding newer devices, such as the “Passport,” and the “Classic,” Chen said it was “too early” to render judgment about their ultimate success, while noting there are “lots of carriers” and 6,000 stores in 68 countries carrying the devices.

    “We have now shown financially we are well under control; now I need to stabilize revenue, and then I’m going to start growing that; we are kind-of in the second half of the ball game in terms of the turnaround.”

    One of the most positive responses from the Street today is from Mark Sue of RBC Capital Markets, who maintains a Sector Perform on the stock, and an $11 price target, and notes the positives on software, and BES in particular, coming out of the report:

    BlackBerry’s aggregate software revenue target is $600M incl. BBM, tuck-in acquisitions, vs. $268M run-rate/yr. exiting FY15. Most enterprise customers are on BES 10 and BlackBerry’s working to convert legacy/EZ-Pass customers to BES12. BES12 momentum Revenue 6.8 is improving and the 2.2k customer wins point to a good start. Software Prev. revenues are currently $67M (+24% QoQ, +20% YoY) and may begin ramping in 3-6 months. QNX’s seeing connected car uptake. There’s strong enterprise interest for Work/Life and Meeting; BlackBerry expects to sustain software momentum with benefit from product/distribution with carriers, so we’re monitoring the pace of uptake.

    Sue notes the company’s investment in distribution:

    BlackBerry’s making investments incarrier reselling/distribution for software modules, which may boost revenues in the back-half as carrier and resellers ramp. Qualification for 300 resellers for BES and VAS is in the works. 10 resellers have signed up to resell SIM-based licensing software. There’s multiple tier-1 carriers/OEMs reselling software, including DT, Sprint, Samsung etc.; albeit, investorsshould note most reseller agreements tend to not be exclusive.

    He also sees progress for the newer hardware offerings:

    There’s some traction for hardware and Passport/Classic may be receiving decent reception. Despite the launch timing, >90% of hardware units sold were new devices. ASPs improved to $211 vs. $180 in F3Q and are expected to trend higher, which coupled with COGS reductions, may increase hardware margins in F2H16.

    Sue is something of an outlier: Most of the notes this morning express a fairly strong degree of skepticism, especially toward the software goal, though most seem willing to believe the company’s drive toward full-year profit this year will, indeed, work.

    Canaccord Genuity‘s Mike Walkley reiterates a Hold rating on the stock, and a $10 price target, writing that he believes in the company’s profit goals, but that software sales are an uphill slog:

    We believe the lowered cost structure should enable BlackBerry to meet its target of remaining free cash flow positive during F2016. Despite our lowered F2016 hardware sales estimate, we believe BlackBerry could achieve non-GAAP positive EPS in 2H/F2016. However, we believe growing software sales will only partially offset the continued steep decline in the higher-margin services revenue, resulting in modest non-GAAP EPS during F2016/F2017. In fact, we believe BlackBerry faces the challenging task of selling not just EMM subscriptions but must also upsell substantial amounts of VAS to potential new subscribers in a highly competitive enterprise mobility market to offset declining services revenue and drive long-term meaningful profitability.

    MKM Partners‘s Michael Genovese reiterates aNeutral rating on the shares, and a $10 price target, wrting that the goal for software sales are too high:

    John Chen said he would not yet give up on the $600mn Software target for FY16 even though Software revenues came in at only $67mn in 4QFY15, including only ~$13mn in EZPass conversions. He also acknowledged that BBM monetization is running behind plan. We view the Software guidance as overly ambitious given the EMM competitive landscape. Moreover, Services revenues are expected to continue to decline ~15% per quarter throughout 2016 which will more than fully offset any growth in Software.

    Credit Suisse‘s Kulbinder Garcha reiterates an Underperform rating, and a $6 price target, writing that services are a challenge for the company:

    Services: Services continued to see an accelerated decline, falling about 15% q/q. We continue to see headaches for the services business, as we believe that (1) subscriber base will continue to erode, (2) ARPU will fall due to the shift toward BB10, (3) the monetization of EZ Pass remains difficult in a competitive MDM market environment. Furthermore, management highlighted that they expect the decline in SAF revenue (-15% q/q) to continue, which they expect to offset by doubling software revenue by the end of FY16 to $600mn. We remain skeptical that they can achieve this type of growth in software to offset the decline in their services business. Additionally, we are also concerned that GM’s in the services segments may start to come down as revenue pressures persist. We assume FY16/17 services revenues are $846/$467mn.

    Stuart Jeffrey with Nomura Equity Research reiterates a Neutral rating, and a $9.70 price target, writing that the software goal seems “optimistic”:

    Management does not expect to see a material software revenue boost from BES12 license adoptions until fiscal H2, making it hard to judge momentum based on Q4 or Q1 numbers. While we forecast good growth, our $456mn software revenue forecast remains below management’s $500mn guidance for FY16. Our caution is based on our checks that suggest a potentially meaningful number of EZ Pass licenses are being taken up as an insurance option with no intention to use them or upgrade to Gold licenses.

    He thinks newer handsets such as the Passport and Classic and “Leap” play only to the faithful: “Reviews of new devices suggest that they are unlikely to appeal much outside of the BlackBerry heartland.”

    “Unless device sales pick up quickly in Q1, concerns over the contribution of device revenue in driving group revenue could build.”

    UBS‘s Amitabh Passi reiterates a Neutral rating, and a $10 price target, writing that there seems limited interest in the software and services:

    However, these sales are still a fair distance away from the average of $150m/quarter required in FY16 to hit BBRY’s goal of $600m for FY16. As we highlighted in our F4Q preview (link), under a set of assumptions predicated on healthy activation of EZPass licenses and reasonable uptake of enterprise productivity and security value-added (VAS) suites, BBRY could get close to its $600m goal. However, based on current visibility and our own surveys, interest in BES12 and BBRY VAS offerings remains low, and we remain doubtful BBRY will hit its target. In the meantime, cost cuts and cash flow have stabilized business.

    Citigroup‘s Ehud Gelblum reiterates a Sell rating, and an $8 price target, writing that there’s little reason to be optimistic about software:

    Software trends are also not exactly exuding optimism on rev of $67M, up 24% q/q and 20% y/y as it including 2 acquisitions (Secusmart / Movirtu). FY15 SW revenue of $231M fell short of mgmt’s prior $250M guidance and implies hitting guidance of $500M of Software revs in F’16 comes off a lower base. Mgmt was “not willing to give up on the number just yet.” E-Z Pass users stalled in Dec at 6.8M and current subs were not disclosed. Yet software “bookings” of $13M were also low using either 1-year or 1 and 2 year contract lengths implies BBRY likely converted just 1-1.6M of its 6.8M E-Z Pass subs into revenue paying customers.

    In fact, it’s hard to believe software will offset the services decline, he writes:

    All indications continue to point to deteriorating fundamentals despite mgmt’s mantra that they have stopped the bleeding with 2 op profitable qtrs. We fail to see where the floor for revenue is while EPS was boosted by low opex, tax credits, and Fx. We cont. to not be able to see how the EMM/MDM and software revs grow fast enough to offset the accelerating 60-70% y/y declines in Services revs that lie ahead in both FY16 and even more acutely in FY17.
    We also have MS at $7, ML at $6 and GS at?? Where is Simona??
    03-30-15 01:12 PM
  20. BanffMoose's Avatar
    Since we're doing a little bit of armchair ceo-ing with regards to marketing spend, I'll offer this: I wouldn't mind Chen lowering the QNX Car2 licensing fees if the auto manufacturers agreed to use and print BlackBerry's name in the list of compatible devices for their cars and that they use BlackBerry phones in their advertising and BlackBerry has to get an app with equal or greater functionality of iOS and Android (after all BB10 is Car2's sibling OS). An even greater discount if they use BlackBerry QNX as a badge on their cars.

    My thesis for this is that giving up revenue is about the same as advertising spend. Only in this case, getting the recognition and apps may help give BlackBerry phones some much needed visibility.
    03-30-15 01:17 PM
  21. notafanofyou's Avatar
    No one will convince me this isn't a US NSA coordinated attack. They make up FUD stories in an attempt to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. It's out of Hitler propaganda play book. Tell a big lie over and over again until everyone believes it. You see it on the street as people will repeat nonsense. I lol when I have some people tell me how iphone is a real phone as they are standing beside a wall attached to a plug or have samsung users asking to borrow my BlackBerry charger.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 01:21 PM
  22. kfh227's Avatar
    Bought some here at 8.81. it seems oversold now and 8.80 is good support. I thin with 8.80 previous gap also filled.
    Hello options!!!!

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 01:22 PM
  23. Kris Erickson's Avatar
    Hey Primeusd, I'm on the Nasdq but I switched to US funds back when the two dollars were close. Now I'm not sure its worth the conversion to US as your bank will pbly take 2-3% for the converstion. Your call though.
    primusd likes this.
    03-30-15 01:25 PM
  24. MollyMorton's Avatar
    No one will convince me this isn't a US NSA coordinated attack. They make up FUD stories in an attempt to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. It's out of Hitler propaganda play book. Tell a big lie over and over again until everyone believes it. You see it on the street as people will repeat nonsense. I lol when I have some people tell me how iphone is a real phone as they are standing beside a wall attached to a plug or have samsung users asking to borrow my BlackBerry charger.

    Posted via CB10
    Well, if it's that easy, why don't BlackBerry just tell their own 'big lie', and sort the whole darn thing out?

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-15 01:25 PM
  25. jake simmons3's Avatar
    3 Reasons BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ: BBRY) Will Never Be Acquired | Benzinga

    first comment on this article hits the nail on the head
    03-30-15 01:33 PM
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