View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. BanffMoose's Avatar
    I don't think the June 30 deadline is relevant. EZ Pass participants have until June 30 to activate their licenses, as you said, after that date those licenses can't be activated. However, if they aren't using the licenses by now probably they aren't interested in BES. Besides, those licenses already lost their upgrade rights by January 31. That means even if the customer start paying support they can't update to newer version of BES, they have to switch to the SaaS offering anyways. So, there is no much value in those perpetual licenses.

    I think the effect of the EZ Pass program is already fully incorporated in the number of subscribers (that Chen refused to reveal). Although, part of the revenue didn't make it into the quarter.
    Like you, I would've preferred it if Chen provided a better answer to the BES12/EZPass questions. He could've controlled the story better.

    I thought I heard Chen say this morning that in order to answer the BES12 adoption questions, they would've had to do a bit of analysis to get a correct read of the EZPass uptake. I can easily see that. In fact, he could've pointed to me and said I, and people like me, are the reason why.

    I upgraded to BES10 using the first EZPass program started under Heins. When Chen announced the 2nd EZPass program to upgrade to BES12, I submitted my application to get my BES12 licenses. I did that before the January 31 deadline and I have my assigned BES12 licenses just "sitting there."

    In January, I called BlackBerry sales and got my quote for getting a support contract. Turned out that it was cheaper for me to let my EZPass BES12 licenses lapse and just buy Annual Subscriptions. I posted here a month or two ago that based on my calculation, the breakeven point between regular annual subscriptions (Silver, standard support level) and going the EZPass upgrade route was about 60 users. I'm no where close to 60 users, so I bought the annual subscriptions that now come with support.

    In early February, BlackBerry sent me a questionnaire asking why I didn't purchase support for my EZPass licenses. There were a number of radio button options and I responded with what ever answer was closest to "I bought annual subscriptions."

    It's now two months post-EZPass and I'm still running BES10. I probably won't convert to BES12 until the end of April simply because I've got other projects that I wanted/needed to get done before doing that upgrade.

    So, let's analyze my transgressions, err actions:
    1) I have EZPass BES12 licenses
    2) I haven't activated them yet so I'm not in that count.
    3) I didn't buy EZPass tech support so I wouldn't count as an EZPass uptake subscriber.
    4) I'm still using BES10, so I'm not in the server count of BES12 adopters and I won't be in the BES12 count for another month.
    5) On July 1, my BES12 EZPass licenses will expire.
    6) I bought annual subscriptions so the revenue I brought to BlackBerry is far, far less than if I bought the EZPass Tech Support package.
    7) I am a paying customer
    8) BlackBerry would have to review my survey answers and/or review my account history to figure out how to classify me.

    I can't be the only one in this situation. I can imagine EZPass customers sticking with their perpetual licenses for the foreseeable future. Those people will still be BlackBerry customers/users, only they don't generate revenue.

    Hope this helps illustrate one possible reason Chen was a little evasive this morning.
    03-27-15 06:03 PM
  2. spiller's Avatar
    They will lose another $47M high margin SAF next ER. Probably $20M of that recovered by increase in Software. They might be chasing revenue stable/even for a few more quarters...but lower overall GM/profit.

    Hardware has to make up for some of this....the slider won't be out this quarter so classic sales need to make up for it this quarter....Slider next quarter (if it's ready).
    03-27-15 06:16 PM
  3. jake simmons3's Avatar
    They will lose another $47M high margin SAF next ER. Probably $20M of that recovered by increase in Software. They might be chasing revenue stable/even for a few more quarters...but lower overall GM/profit.

    Hardware has to make up for some of this....the slider won't be out this quarter so classic sales need to make up for it this quarter....Slider next quarter (if it's ready).
    Agreed hardware will need to make up for this but now the roll out for the classic is happening, I think it's doable

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 06:18 PM
  4. spiller's Avatar
    I liked how things went today including the trading on a Friday when the DOW confirmed that it is staying under its 50-dma for a few days. I'm really happy with my purchase the other day, I had to make large purchases in HALO as well and I just wanted to own my position in both in the first half of this week. The package investment is really solid here, my goal is purely technical in nature for BlackBerry:

    Attachment 344151

    If you look at this chart, plus or minus a couple of Samsung driven rallies, we have been locked inside a horz. channel here. I simply bought BBRY at the bottom of the channel and I will be selling covered calls against a large portion of the stock in the days and weeks ahead here. My goal is to earn something over the top of that channel and it isn't very difficult with BBRY beta. So I'm happy with my price, we are now above the 3-ema, we closed higher via a gap up, we did it on Friday, and, we have that revenue number in front of us. I still see the DOW going back above its 50-dma, then BBRY will do the same thing (currently at $ 10.11/shr) and the DOW will make new highs and BBRY will get to the top of its channel again. That's the theory behind my purchase, the quarter went according to plan including that crazy hardware balancing act that BB is becoming famous for! Hope that answers your question.

    PS. I'm just going over the webcast again, John is very good at what he does.
    Yep just listened to it now.

    So 90% of devices shipped in the quarter (not 90% accounted for revenue) were Classic and Passport.

    So they didn't shipped many Z3s! Good news / Bad news. Z3 is not selling. Hope the Leap will sell better with wider availability.....
    morganplus8 and bbjdog like this.
    03-27-15 06:20 PM
  5. cjcampbell's Avatar
    They will lose another $47M high margin SAF next ER. Probably $20M of that recovered by increase in Software. They might be chasing revenue stable/even for a few more quarters...but lower overall GM/profit.

    Hardware has to make up for some of this....the slider won't be out this quarter so classic sales need to make up for it this quarter....Slider next quarter (if it's ready).
    Don't expect the slider till the fall at the earliest.

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 06:21 PM
  6. spiller's Avatar
    The ER was disappointing quite frankly. Chen was disappointed too but keep an upbeat mood.

    Last CC they said one more transitional quarter which should be the bottom of the trough for revenue.

    This CC they did not repeat that message; they are not saying to expect higher revenue and moving forward the bottom is behind us. They certainly are hoping they can beat revenue (more than make up for declining SAF) but you can tell they aren't sure.

    Hardware rev really killed them this quarter. They pretty much had all the other metrics forecast...if a few million short on software than projected. The 300M shipped into carrier channels and not yet accounted for revenue (passport and classic) doesn't mean much IMO, it's a front load to supply the launch in the US among other continued global rollouts of the Classic, but how quickly they are sold through to end customers and activated will dictate how many more they can ship out and sell through.

    They should have put a better chip and better screen in the Classic because I think it's putting off a lot of would be consumers and BYOD (bold upgrade) customers ...if they think the Passport is too big they might just do what everybody else says "i guess i'll just get an iPhone".
    03-27-15 06:38 PM
  7. spiller's Avatar
    Don't expect the slider till the fall at the earliest.

    Posted via CB10
    I still think the "coming out with something in June where I think people will only need one device" still referenced the slider (all touch + optional keyboard). And I think that will come out in August.
    03-27-15 06:40 PM
  8. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I still think the "coming out with something in June where I think people will only need one device" still referenced the slider (all touch + optional keyboard). And I think that will come out in August.
    Fair enough. Neither of us is correct until it happens

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 06:42 PM
  9. sidhuk's Avatar
    Ok Gang, Back in the thread, weekend long self requested banned was cut short because of earnings and Mods were super cool.
    Just word of caution. leave the haters/instigators alone and if you dont like something, just report it. cause mods can not see every post or the history as to what started it until it is reported.
    Chen is on the right track. he did mention about some analyst taking advantage of the quite period.
    over all, Gang did great job covering Blackberry earnings and analyzing it.
    Have a great weekend Gang.
    Cheers.
    03-27-15 06:54 PM
  10. jake simmons3's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20150327_190201.jpg

    This can't be from a BlackBerry can it

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 07:07 PM
  11. sidhuk's Avatar
    You asked for it, Morgan!

    Amber, Amber, Amber... and, oh yes, I almost forgot... JC!

    John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers

    BNN - Watch TV Online | John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers




    [video]https://youtu.be/PWnC272z33o[/url]

    Love this interview!!!
    wow. i had to go 3 pages back and thank you for this video Corbu. this should be played every morning on this thread.
    03-27-15 07:12 PM
  12. spiller's Avatar
    I liked how things went today including the trading on a Friday when the DOW confirmed that it is staying under its 50-dma for a few days. I'm really happy with my purchase the other day, I had to make large purchases in HALO as well and I just wanted to own my position in both in the first half of this week. The package investment is really solid here, my goal is purely technical in nature for BlackBerry:

    Attachment 344151

    If you look at this chart, plus or minus a couple of Samsung driven rallies, we have been locked inside a horz. channel here. I simply bought BBRY at the bottom of the channel and I will be selling covered calls against a large portion of the stock in the days and weeks ahead here. My goal is to earn something over the top of that channel and it isn't very difficult with BBRY beta. So I'm happy with my price, we are now above the 3-ema, we closed higher via a gap up, we did it on Friday, and, we have that revenue number in front of us. I still see the DOW going back above its 50-dma, then BBRY will do the same thing (currently at $ 10.11/shr) and the DOW will make new highs and BBRY will get to the top of its channel again. That's the theory behind my purchase, the quarter went according to plan including that crazy hardware balancing act that BB is becoming famous for! Hope that answers your question.

    PS. I'm just going over the webcast again, John is very good at what he does.
    Do you see the road to near the top of channel 2 wks or 4 wks? Seems like top to trough to top cycle is about 7-8 weeks or 4 each way

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 07:12 PM
  13. bspence87's Avatar
    Ok Gang, Back in the thread, weekend long self requested banned was cut short because of earnings and Mods were super cool.
    Just word of caution. leave the haters/instigators alone and if you dont like something, just report it. cause mods can not see every post or the history as to what started it until it is reported.
    Chen is on the right track. he did mention about some analyst taking advantage of the quite period.
    over all, Gang did great job covering Blackberry earnings and analyzing it.
    Have a great weekend Gang.
    Cheers.
    Welcome back Sidhuk!
    Thanks for taking one for the team :P I know it's tough to keep cool sometimes!

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 07:12 PM
  14. Supa_Fly1's Avatar
    Not until we have a clearer view of BES 12 uptake, but yeah nice to see that Bb7 is finally getting closed off from the device side.

    Posted via CB10
    FYI ... doesn't have to be BES12 ... BES10 is still sold and supported albeit cheaper costs - unless i'm mistaken on both fronts
    La Emperor likes this.
    03-27-15 07:23 PM
  15. morganplus8's Avatar
    Do you see the road to near the top of channel 2 wks or 4 wks? Seems like top to trough to top cycle is about 7-8 weeks or 4 each way

    Posted via CB10
    I think the up cycle is probably 3 weeks and if there is a pause to refresh, one more week. The MM's (market makers) don't have the control they once had so this trade rallies harder when it is time. The overall cycle has been 6 - 7 weeks on average and I don't see this changing until we breakout of this channel. We hit an RSI=29.9 (W Hoa pointed this out one day ago?) and that was the other reason I went in. I do have to say that I also bought some at $ 9.83/shr to start the trade off and then sold a large quantity of $ 9.50 strike naked puts too so I have a complex trade on the go here. I feel good about where we are, relieved actually, I think Chen handled himself well and we still have the 300,000 handsets at higher ARP to look forward to and I was pleased that Chen himself thinks hardware is bouncing back here. If I get a chance I'll post a chart that identifies the cycles a little more clearly. I'm looking forward to Monday, I think we pull back to just under the 3-ema, say $ 9.30/shr and finish positive setting us up for a rally.

    Edit: By 300,000 top of the line handsets, I'm referring to the fact that we are starting off a full quarter with plenty of inventory out there, this sure didn't happen in this past quarter.
    03-27-15 07:36 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    wow. i had to go 3 pages back and thank you for this video Corbu. this should be played every morning on this thread.
    Could not agree more, sidhuk! This one is a keeper and we'll have to refer to it every once in a while, when we get caught in a collective depressive mood!

    JC tells it like it is. We simply have to listen. And give it a bit of time.

    Welcome back, by the way!
    bbjdog, rarsen, sidhuk and 5 others like this.
    03-27-15 08:13 PM
  17. bbjdog's Avatar
    I still think the "coming out with something in June where I think people will only need one device" still referenced the slider (all touch + optional keyboard). And I think that will come out in August.
    It's software and not devices!
    Corbu likes this.
    03-27-15 08:19 PM
  18. doctor gonzo's Avatar
    Perhaps maybe someone could clarify this for me. The analysts are always making a big deal out of declining service revenues on the old legacy devices. I get that. It's always referred to as high margin revenue. But there must be some cost to providing that support. Any idea as to what that may be? Manpower company resourses etc... As revenues go down it seems to me that some of those costs must go down as well. It' can't be pure profit. Or is it?
    Supa_Fly1 and CDM76 like this.
    03-27-15 08:24 PM
  19. spiller's Avatar
    It's software and not devices!
    I think movirtu virtual SIM is already integrated? So that wouldn't be June. Other software?

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 09:21 PM
  20. spiller's Avatar
    Perhaps maybe someone could clarify this for me. The analysts are always making a big deal out of declining service revenues on the old legacy devices. I get that. It's always referred to as high margin revenue. But there must be some cost to providing that support. Any idea as to what that may be? Manpower company resourses etc... As revenues go down it seems to me that some of those costs must go down as well. It' can't be pure profit. Or is it?
    I think SAF is around 90% margin. Probably less now that the SAF revenue has declined significantly. But it's still the highest margin service they have. They probably need at least 50M software to equal 40M service decline.

    Posted via CB10
    doctor gonzo likes this.
    03-27-15 09:24 PM
  21. jake simmons3's Avatar
    Perhaps maybe someone could clarify this for me. The analysts are always making a big deal out of declining service revenues on the old legacy devices. I get that. It's always referred to as high margin revenue. But there must be some cost to providing that support. Any idea as to what that may be? Manpower company resourses etc... As revenues go down it seems to me that some of those costs must go down as well. It' can't be pure profit. Or is it?
    I'll try to answer this

    This high margin rev they keep talking about is basically a service fee the carrier pays per BlackBerry legacy device it has on it network. From what I understand about what this fee is and how it's handled I wouldn't be suprised if it was 95 percent pure profit. Very little support would be needed at this point. Ie a small team to maintain and watch over legacy devices. I'm positive there is no more releases going out for legacy devices. So that would leave a small support team keeping a eye out for legacy devices. I'm sure there is some cost server wise to manage these devices to connect and run on the BlackBerry network but that would be minimal. So like I said 95 percent pure profit

    Posted via CB10
    03-27-15 09:33 PM
  22. BanffMoose's Avatar
    I think movirtu virtual SIM is already integrated? So that wouldn't be June. Other software?

    Posted via CB10
    My best guess is that WorkLife (the Movirtu virtual SIM) is like the BlackBerry SIM-based licensing offering that is beginning to roll out. It will require a close working relationship with the adopting carriers because the carriers will have to be able to attach two phone numbers to one device and bifurcate the phone and data usage to the respective phone number. From the demo BlackBerry did at MWC, it appeared there's a device software component that needs to support the bifurcation as well. Did BlackBerry allude to a June launch at MWC?

    As WorkLife launches, it'll be more indication that at least on a software/partnership level, BlackBerry is mending its carrier relationships and getting carrier support again. During this morning's ER, didn't Chen mention that the SIM-based licensing is doable because BlackBerry's NOC and services were already linked into carriers' networks (and billing systems) due to the existing SAF relationships? If so, BlackBerry would be replacing SAF with new services like WorkLife and SIM-based licensing that are attractive to carriers and customers because everyone wins. Wouldn't it be great if adopting carriers allow BlackBerry to offer this product solely on BlackBerry devices instead of stalling BlackBerry until BlackBerry makes software that runs on iOS and Android at the same time?

    As always, just my $0.02.
    rarsen, bungaboy, jxnb and 3 others like this.
    03-27-15 10:59 PM
  23. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    Some random weekend thoughts:


    ..."We are looking to buy a company...."
    Sign me up too for Sierra Wireless!

    I am almost certain the BlackBerry 'Slide' will be built by Samsung, and thus, will facilitate some Android conversion to BlackBerry.

    I am jazzed by the variety of guys here that hit BlackBerry from every angle imaginable. Not just pumpers, we, as a group, have graduated to a higher calibre.

    I am convinced that Amber Kanwar is a stock holder, as I heard her say "what's next for US..." when talking to Chen. Anybody catch that from Corbu's link above?
    She is so sweet.

    Setting in my entry limit for Monday. No naked swimming in the shark tank (not smart enough), just good old fashion trading.


    Cheers guys!
    Last edited by Bacon Munchers; 03-28-15 at 01:12 AM.
    03-27-15 11:18 PM
  24. chrysaurora's Avatar
    So, I heard the conference call, followed news, forum and been trying to collect my thoughts. It seems like slowly, slowly, I have gotten myself into same situation as 2 years ago and now I am sweating with worry (figure of speech, not actually sweating).

    Context:
    On every dip, I kept buying calls (Jan 2016, strike $15) to average down and thinking, it's not going to go down again. So, now 80% of my portfolio is again BBRY call options - this represents last 2 years of savings (starting from scratch as I had lost everything when Heinz put BBRY for sale and all my options expired worthless).

    Today's situation:
    With today's ER, I am getting concerned. Sure, we managed to show profit even with $660M revenue but I am not sure if that means we have the ability to generate profit on low revenue. If anything, it is perhaps the opposite. Let me explain:

    Declining BIS fee. Which (as used to be reported in media a year or so ago) is like 85% margin. So, now, if we replace this high-margin revenue with lesser-margin revenue, we are not going to be able to make profit.

    Let's say, software margin is 45% and hardware (device) margin is 20%

    $10 of BIS revenue = $8.5 profit
    $10 of software revenue = $4.5 profit
    $10 hardware device revenue = $2 profit.
    So, if replaced $500M of BIS revenue with a mix of hardware and software, we'd get much less profit than before. So, to replace $500M of BIS revenue , we probably need $1+ Billion of a hardware and software revenue mix.

    It's clear that BIS revenue is declining - and declining faster than predicted. Next quarter, instead of tapering off by another 20%, it might just completely nosedive and become close to zero. Who knows. It is unpredictable.

    So, my concern is -- can BBRY replace BIS revenue quickly enough to continue generating positive cash flow?

    The only other high-margin revenue that can potentially replace BIS is revenue from BES revenue/license. I think that'd be atleast 70% margin revenue stream. But BES (from JC's hesitation in answering that question) seems to have not been so well received as we had expected (from the EZ-pass numbers touted in last two quarters).

    So, I am now worried sick that I may yet again lose all my savings invested in call options. I am already over 60% in red. My average for strike $15, 2016 Jan, has been $.80.
    03-27-15 11:26 PM
  25. jake simmons3's Avatar
    So, I heard the conference call, followed news, forum and been trying to collect my thoughts. It seems like slowly, slowly, I have gotten myself into same situation as 2 years ago and now I am sweating with worry (figure of speech, not actually sweating).

    Context:
    On every dip, I kept buying calls (Jan 2016, strike $15) to average down and thinking, it's not going to go down again. So, now 80% of my portfolio is again BBRY call options - this represents last 2 years of savings (starting from scratch as I had lost everything when Heinz put BBRY for sale and all my options expired worthless).

    Today's situation:
    With today's ER, I am getting concerned. Sure, we managed to show profit even with $660M revenue but I am not sure if that means we have the ability to generate profit on low revenue. If anything, it is perhaps the opposite. Let me explain:

    Declining BIS fee. Which (as used to be reported in media a year or so ago) is like 85% margin. So, now, if we replace this high-margin revenue with lesser-margin revenue, we are not going to be able to make profit.

    Let's say, software margin is 45% and hardware (device) margin is 20%

    $10 of BIS revenue = $8.5 profit
    $10 of software revenue = $4.5 profit
    $10 hardware device revenue = $2 profit.
    So, if replaced $500M of BIS revenue with a mix of hardware and software, we'd get much less profit than before. So, to replace $500M of BIS revenue , we probably need $1+ Billion of a hardware and software revenue mix.

    It's clear that BIS revenue is declining - and declining faster than predicted. Next quarter, instead of tapering off by another 20%, it might just completely nosedive and become close to zero. Who knows. It is unpredictable.

    So, my concern is -- can BBRY replace BIS revenue quickly enough to continue generating positive cash flow?

    The only other high-margin revenue that can potentially replace BIS is revenue from BES revenue/license. I think that'd be atleast 70% margin revenue stream. But BES (from JC's hesitation in answering that question) seems to have not been so well received as we had expected (from the EZ-pass numbers touted in last two quarters).

    So, I am now worried sick that I may yet again lose all my savings invested in call options. I am already over 60% in red. My average for strike $15, 2016 Jan, has been $.80.
    I had jan 2016 12 call options I bit the bullet and sold them at a lose and then bought jan 2017 12 call options. If we do successfully turn around I'm sure we will be over 20 a shares come jan 2017. Take my adive for what it's worth and learn from your last mistake and sell while they still have some value and convert them into 2017 calls. I'd wait maybe till June er at the very max to sell them and still get some money back but if u think about if you sell them now and buy 2017 calls then u basically taking the money u have in BlackBerry now and giving yourself another year. I know u will lose some with the brokerage fees and what not but at this point I sold my 2016 call options and bought 2017. Take my advice with a grain of salt bc I don't know your whole story/situation. Just thought I'd give you my 2 cents

    Posted via CB10
    chrysaurora likes this.
    03-27-15 11:34 PM
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