View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. morganplus8's Avatar
    Volume is HUGE so far today, very interesting to watch it play out.

    I always enjoy listening to Chen on his conference call, he says a lot if you care to listen. Sounds like his biggest challenge right now if convincing customers he's righted the financial ship and that they are positive moving forward, in fact he said those very words at the summation at the end.

    Also heard that's also his biggest internal challenge as well, as he admitted that morale isn't where he'd like it to be, but by righting the financial ship, folks who aren't afraid they might be "next" work to better moral.

    I think as others have said the best thing that came out today is that they are profitable at this level of revenue. That's really huge as many of the analysts were right about revenues being down, phone sale levels etc, but as Morgan rightly pointed out Mr Wry Smile got them again when they missed what it cost to run the company.

    For those wanting the company to spend money on marketing phones to consumers, I think you will be waiting some more on that score. Interesting discussion about R&D and cutting that spending in the conference call. Doesn't sound like Chen feels he has a lot of discretionary funds still, at least that's what I got from that.

    Morgan - a question if I may. Really enjoyed your summation. Of the 3.25 million, they are still going to have to keep a ring around 1.2 of that as the stock price hovers at the $10 level, leaving bond holders little incentive to redeem no? I realize that's a long way off, but it's the one thing that holds some of that money back for now no? That still leaves 2 billion cash for more Secusmarts or Morvitos as we go on I think thats important to note too, but the debt is still there as far as look at the whole cash pile.
    Hi randall2580 !!

    Thanks for those kind words, I do feel you are on point here too.

    You are right to mention that Chen is very careful not to touch that cash hoard, he has barely made any acquisitions so far during his tenor, I think that was smart on his part but now I would like to see him "invest" that money in a typical 20% return program. A typical investment would see you make 20% annually on your capital over 5-years and that would drive the stock in multiples of 15 times. He needs to see that if he can run the company on $ 600 MM and has $ 500 MM in a line of credit, in addition, sales in software and hardware are looking up here, the combined cash-flow will support a major acquisition here.

    The problem with the bond argument as a debt is that it is only a debt when the stock is below $ 10.00 and that is on paper as long as they are solvent at that level of stock price. He needs to accept that the market and enterprise want to see that BlackBerry has legs for the future, but, he also needs to know that the market will turn on a dime and like growth even more! Their EMM competition are literally running on Air, they are taking on a burn rate that means they need to go to the market for more cash, BB doesn't have that problem. We could invest up to $ 2.0 B or more in one or more cash-flow positive, growth orientated, profitable businesses that have synergies to what is BlackBerry now and you would see the market fall in love with BB again.

    The problem is, analysts have only one speed and that is boredom, they looked at today's report and saw a profit and a huge drop in Revenue based upon their own guidance. No one has commented on the $ 12 MM one-time currency loss, they didn't talk about the 300,000 phones at an ARP of $ 211 or $ 63 MM in sales, they focused on the revenue number to justify their analysis and that's not fair.

    Chen has no allegiance to the bond holders, he has to pay them 6% and that's it, even Prem Watsa would likely want BB to unleash some purchase power and grow the business. The cash they have today is/was placed there to satisfy enterprise and to assure them that BB will be around for years to come, but why tax BB in a way that you don't tax Air/MOBL? Both of those companies will not be here in 3-5 years, a debt ridden, high customer acquisition cost business model won't work in the long run. BlackBerry needs to look at their cost basis which is WiFi patent charges, airtime, other patents in general etc., and acquire assets that eliminate those costs while making profits from others in a sustainable way. The bond holders are a tight knit group of investors who would like nothing more than to see the price of the stock stay above $ 10.00, it wouldn't take much of a business plan to convince them to use that capital to acquire growing assets.

    That's my take on it, I try to post ideas that make us think beyond the boring stuff we hear from analysts. You don't have to agree with me but please know I'm trying to see something for BB that isn't in black and white at this moment. When I look at this report I have to wonder why anyone would want to be short the stock going into the next Q report, makes no sense to me. GL
    03-27-15 10:49 AM
  2. spiller's Avatar
    why do you say this? Concerning to read this...

    Is it because it is too early in the growth phase and you feel BES12 hasn't gained as much traction at this point?

    He did mention in the Q&A, "give me two more quarters...mid summer" to start realizing the BES12 effects. I believe we always heard that from him and mentioned here in the forums as well.

    Did you pick up on signals that it might be slower? or not as effective?
    Maybe he is giving some EZ pass customers some time now to test BES12 Cloud vs BES12 on premise. Could one of those recent reports be right that BB is not yet charging some EZ pass customers -- maybe because they want to move to BES Cloud? Enterprises do not want to manage infrastructure. This is why Airwatch is doing so well. If BES 12 Cloud is better than Airwatch at comparable pricing (I think basic is $6/mth/device), that is their real competition. Cloud could be a big driver and it's probably unknown how much traction they will get this soon.....
    03-27-15 10:51 AM
  3. morganplus8's Avatar
    You had a better call - you nailed that 2%!
    I'm taking zero credit for that! I know the charges could have been as high as 4% but that was very unlikely, so now I'm taking your good call and running with it by saying that it dropped revenues by $ 12 MM but it won't be a factor next Q!! How's that for stealing your idea and making it mine! HA! Good call, I had no idea how big that charge would be, the hedge looks to be about 50% which is just right here.

    Going into this call, my goal was to not be beaten by _dimi_ and his forecast and I managed that be using the exact same numbers as him!! Notice he isn't here to concede that I did tie him. What are your thoughts on the report and what we could see in the months ahead?
    03-27-15 10:55 AM
  4. Corbu's Avatar
    03-27-15 11:05 AM
  5. W Hoa's Avatar
    they didn't talk about the 300,000 phones at an ARP of $ 211 or $ 63 MM in sales
    I'm curious about that. 300k at $211 is approx $63 million that wasn't included in the quarters revenue. Had they been the revenue numbers would have been close to $723 million. This represents a drop in revenue of 8% rather than the much more dramatic 32% being used.

    And even more interesting....
    BlackBerry's revenue was below an estimated US$734.51 million; BlackBerry said its revenue decline included a US$12-million hit due to currency fluctations.
    If you include the excluded device revenue and factor out the currency fluctuations you pretty much hit the 'estimated US$734.51 million figure'.

    This $63 million will now show up next quarter and perhaps have a bigger impact on earnings.

    Having said all this I think Chen knows exactly what he's doing in bringing things along in a nice incremental way.
    Last edited by W Hoa; 03-27-15 at 12:22 PM.
    bbjdog, bigbadben10, jxnb and 6 others like this.
    03-27-15 11:19 AM
  6. bigbadben10's Avatar
    As a side note...remember all the "Smack Talk" yesterday. I guess they all crawled back under their rocks!

    Way to go John Chen!!!
    03-27-15 11:32 AM
  7. morganplus8's Avatar
    why do you say this? Concerning to read this...

    Is it because it is too early in the growth phase and you feel BES12 hasn't gained as much traction at this point?

    He did mention in the Q&A, "give me two more quarters...mid summer" to start realizing the BES12 effects. I believe we always heard that from him and mentioned here in the forums as well.

    Did you pick up on signals that it might be slower? or not as effective?
    Hi B 2 B !!

    No! I don't want to alarm you about BES12 uptake here. Chen is right, we will know all about that product within the next six months, he can't hide behind the launch as he rightfully can today. The BES12 uptake will be the most important data next quarter, he knows that, we will see some positive numbers in hardware, he might even clarify hardware sales going forward, but, software and BES12 will be the topic in three months time. I don't have a clue how well that is going, we have some indirect indication that it is positive, but not enough info to understand how it is doing.

    This is where we need Corbu to come along with a video interview this afternoon that addresses his thoughts on that subject. Perhaps he will tell Amber at BNN something more than he spoke about in his report/question period.

    I carefully worded my comments to include that whatever BES12 number we can pull out of the 2016 Q1 report, it will need to be "annualized" to make it important. Converting monthly/quarterly growth to annual figures is a common practice used by fund managers to rationalize just how well an investment is doing. So taking this one step further, if BB can show BES12 uptake at $ 30 MM that's $ 120 MM annually and then you need to show its monthly/quarterly growth rate in addition to that figure. In this way, we would be more like Air/MOBL and report superior growth and actually surpass anything they have accomplished in that space. If this is all we have to look forward to in Q1, at least this will drive the stock price higher. Everyone knows that SAP is going to zero, that is why we are the underdogs in this race so far.

    Now if they invest $ 2.0 B in a typical 5-year return on investment program, that's far more revenue to the bottom line then anything else they could do with the BB business model today. This is way I would like them to purchase a business with synergy and one that meets a criteria like profits, growth and stability. Then you would see the stock fly! Let's say they pump $ 2.0 B into a $ 4.0 B company and that payback is only 10% on those funds, that's a 10% of $ 4.0 Billion Net to the bottom line. Less carrying charges of 6%, they are making $ 280 MM Net divided by 525 MM shares or more than $ .50/shr in EPS. If you apply an P/E on that figure of 15 times, you get a stock price that is $ 7.50/shr higher than where it is today. That's real math and real growth and it can be done on a large scale here. So I'm in favour of them acquiring more assets on a much higher scale than $ 100 MM purchases at this point. I hope this is something that they re considering today.
    03-27-15 11:36 AM
  8. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Hmmmmm...Sierra Wireless
    03-27-15 11:40 AM
  9. bbjdog's Avatar
    Cnbc Interview with John Chen
    Classic 2 - 1 versus Passport
    Chen: Financially under control, stabilizing revenue
    03-27-15 11:43 AM
  10. BanffMoose's Avatar
    Maybe he is giving some EZ pass customers some time now to test BES12 Cloud vs BES12 on premise. Could one of those recent reports be right that BB is not yet charging some EZ pass customers -- maybe because they want to move to BES Cloud? Enterprises do not want to manage infrastructure. This is why Airwatch is doing so well. If BES 12 Cloud is better than Airwatch at comparable pricing (I think basic is $6/mth/device), that is their real competition. Cloud could be a big driver and it's probably unknown how much traction they will get this soon.....
    Chen mentioned in the last ER and this one that conversions to BES12 from EZPass will take several quarters to happen. EZPass participants have until June 30 to upgrade to BES12, because unless something changes, on July 1, 2015, all unused EZPass client access licenses get purged from BlackBerry's systems and will no longer be usable to the holders of those licenses.

    The February 1, 2015 date was significant only in that if you wanted SUPPORT, you had to start paying for the support program. You could still continue to use BES10 and upgrade to BES12 at your leisure until June 30.

    BlackBerry's current offering is BES12.1. EZPass only entitled companies to get BES12.0. Some of the recent security fixes (I believe the FREAK vulnerability) was fixed in BES12.1, but I don't know if they fixed it in BES12 or BES10. BlackBerry may be limiting their security fixes and new product offerings to BES12.1 or higher, because BES12.1 requires paid annual subscriptions. BES12.0 was free under EZPass.

    Companies are slow to adopt new things, and their duty is to themselves, not their vendor. Give them time to adopt, especially if BlackBerry is successful in getting more carrier support on things like SIM-based licensing, WorkLife, BBM Meetings and BBM Protected and SecuSmart.

    At least this was my read on it.
    03-27-15 11:47 AM
  11. dusdal's Avatar
    Chen mentioned in the last ER and this one that conversions to BES12 from EZPass will take several quarters to happen. EZPass participants have until June 30 to upgrade to BES12, because unless something changes, on July 1, 2015, all unused EZPass client access licenses get purged from BlackBerry's systems and will no longer be usable to the holders of those licenses.

    The February 1, 2015 date was significant only in that if you wanted SUPPORT, you had to start paying for the support program. You could still continue to use BES10 and upgrade to BES12 at your leisure until June 30.
    Really good info. Thank you.


    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, Corbu, Munx and 3 others like this.
    03-27-15 11:54 AM
  12. La Emperor's Avatar
    Hmmmmm...Sierra Wireless
    Marriage in Heaven, Ben....I hope Chen makes it happen.
    03-27-15 11:58 AM
  13. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Marriage in Heaven, Ben....I hope Chen makes it happen.
    Indeed LE OH Canada.....
    03-27-15 12:02 PM
  14. sati01's Avatar
    The quarter wasn't that bad after all. They did some more restructuring ($58 million), probably that explains in part the better result. The other part is $17 million additional tax recovery compared to the previous quarter.

    Hardware revenue crashed (-24% sequentially). If 90% of the shipments are Passport and Classic, the volume could fall sharply again next quarter.

    Service revenue felt 16% sequentially, the time bomb is ticking faster. SAF is still paying the bills, without another revenue source they could slide into cash flow negative again.

    Software revenue increased 24% sequentially, that's nice but from a really low base and they missed the $250 million target for FY15. Chen evaded questions related to BES12 and didn't seem confident at all. I think analyst could be in part right about the reception of BES12.
    03-27-15 12:09 PM
  15. digitalsurfboard's Avatar
    well this gives us retail investors one more quarter to increase our positions.

    i'm kinda happy about that.

    Chen had said that he would need another quarter before being able to show growth. I also like that he increased the cash in the bank. Like M+8 said, that's needed to ease concerns from enterprise about BB being around in the long run. But, I don't think he'll spend much of that money until he can show revenue growth.
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-27-15 12:33 PM
  16. Bilaal's Avatar
    Cnbc Interview with John Chen
    Classic 2 - 1 versus Passport
    Chen: Financially under control, stabilizing revenue
    Love this. He too doesn't worry about the day to day stock price and rightly so. It's been a good day for longs
    03-27-15 12:52 PM
  17. lcjr's Avatar
    Hello all!

    I'm trying to remember the last time there was such a positive atmosphere in here. It's really good to see all the positive comments and sharing additional information some of us may have missed this morning. I hope everyone has a fantastic Friday!
    03-27-15 01:13 PM
  18. Bacon Munchers's Avatar

    ... Chen evaded questions related to BES12 and didn't seem confident at all. I think analyst could be in part right about the reception of BES12.
    Sati01:

    Pan up a few posts to what Banff Moose stated. That should help you out a bit regarding where BES12 is and why BlackBerry kept that back from focus on this ER.
    Don't forget also that Samsung involvement with KNOX, under BES12 will also be included in the next ER.
    Personally, I think how successful the uptake of BES12 is will be the highlight of the next report.


    That said. To the anyone who bought at the dip earlier in the week, and rode this mornings open, congratulations! That took some brass!

    I had a bit of profit taking on the rip today; a little celebratory weekend gift to the Mrs. For putting up with me through all of this.
    03-27-15 01:17 PM
  19. slipstream89's Avatar
    volume has dried up quite a bit don't think it will break 9.60 today
    03-27-15 01:21 PM
  20. bungaboy's Avatar
    A bit of background noise . . .

    Chen was great today. His roadmap, his agenda, his timeline.

    The Analcysts and haters just can't handle that!
    lcjr, Corbu, morganplus8 and 14 others like this.
    03-27-15 01:22 PM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    You asked for it, Morgan!

    Amber, Amber, Amber... and, oh yes, I almost forgot... JC!

    John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers

    BNN - Watch TV Online | John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers

    Despite missing revenue expectations and falling hardware sales, BlackBerry CEO John Chen says “it doesn’t matter if they believe [in BlackBerry] or not, that’s their problem. I still have a job to do.” The Waterloo, Ontario-based technology company reported a surprise fourth- quarter profit after cutting costs and increasing the average price of its smartphones.


    Love this interview!!!
    Last edited by Corbu; 03-28-15 at 06:52 AM. Reason: Inserted video + belated thanks to Bla1ze for making this video available
    lcjr, morganplus8, lech31 and 18 others like this.
    03-27-15 01:23 PM
  22. bungaboy's Avatar
    Hello all!

    I'm trying to remember the last time there was such a positive atmosphere in here. It's really good to see all the positive comments and sharing additional information some of us may have missed this morning. I hope everyone has a fantastic Friday!
    Proves what Chen said about the haters and detractors and FUDsters . . . cowards!
    lcjr, Corbu, La Emperor and 7 others like this.
    03-27-15 01:25 PM
  23. bungaboy's Avatar
    Why does it sound like most of the whiney analcysts on the call today wear "man-buns"? And their voices sounded like they just got spanked when they were asking questions?
    03-27-15 01:30 PM
  24. bungaboy's Avatar
    Chen "Devices are the entry point of the Security Platform" "End to End Security"
    03-27-15 01:46 PM
  25. bungaboy's Avatar
    Just watched the BNN interview with Amber!!!

    My favourite John Chen quote was . . . ╭∩╮(︶︿︶)╭∩╮
    03-27-15 01:51 PM
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