View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Alright...following many hours of due diligence and incalculable hours of research I've found our theme song (at least I hope):


    Of course it's a head fake to the unsuspecting
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-09-13 12:26 AM
  2. m0de25's Avatar
    I'll take the two jugs in the middle please

    Posted via CB10
    Despite the stakes implicated in this thread, it's nice to see things loosen up once in a while... So, for the record, I'll take the 3 jugs from the left, thank you very much
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-09-13 12:55 AM
  3. DIA.NSA.CIA's Avatar
    How come 40000 Z10 story never made it to main stream media but 1600s one did..? Was not it official ? Why can not BB annouce these confirmed committments ?
    That's because they were NOT sold...YET...
    According to a recent report by Engadget, the German government has purchased 5,000 BlackBerry Z10.
    The German government plans to buy as many as 40,000 BlackBerry 10 devices that will be enhanced with security applications from SecuSmart to meet NATO standards.

    Similar to Boeing aircraft sales...the announced numbers are NEVER achieved...
    03-09-13 12:55 AM
  4. slipstream89's Avatar
    you are comparing a phone that sells for say $600 to a plane that costs $100 Million each. The german government can afford the full 40K BB order and possible more
    03-09-13 04:26 AM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Guys, stock is stressing me... a lot
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00000421.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    03-09-13 05:21 AM
  6. bungaboy's Avatar
    Anyone buying some March 28 calls and puts on March 27 pre-earnings? Love seeing options expire the next day. I can only imagine that there will be a swing of atleast $1 in one direction or the other.

    Earnings release is March 28. Is it beore the open? After the close? ??? I tried to look it up and don't know.
    Waterloo, ON BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY; TSX: BB) will be reporting results for the fourth quarter and year-end of fiscal 2013 on March 28, 2013. A conference call and live webcast will be held beginning at 8 am ET, which can be accessed by dialing 1-800-814-4859 or through your BlackBerry 10 smartphone, personal computer or BlackBerry PlayBook tablet at Investor Events - Canada.

    A replay of the conference call will also be available at approximately 10 am by dialing (+1)416-640-1917 and entering pass code 4501383# or by clicking the link above on your BlackBerry 10 smartphone, personal computer or BlackBerry PlayBook tablet. This replay will be available until midnight ET April 11, 2013.

    Scheduled Quarterly Results Conference calls for FY 2013

    Q4: Thursday, March 28, 2013, 8am ET

    Scheduled Quarterly Results Conference calls for FY 2014

    Q1: Friday, June 28, 2013, before markets open

    Q2: Friday, September 27, 2013, before markets open

    Q3: Friday, December 20, 2013, before markets open

    Q4: Friday, March 28, 2014, before markets open
    cjcampbell likes this.
    03-09-13 07:39 AM
  7. Tinomane's Avatar
    Last earnings were released after market close. Do they usually release in the morning though?
    03-09-13 07:44 AM
  8. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    Last earnings were released after market close. Do they usually release in the morning though?
    No, this is apparently because the following day is Good Friday - a holiday in US markets.
    Tinomane likes this.
    03-09-13 07:59 AM
  9. Tinomane's Avatar
    No, this is apparently because the following day is Good Friday - a holiday in US markets.
    Good to know. Going to buy some mar 28 calls then. Gambling from home lol.
    03-09-13 09:58 AM
  10. gp656's Avatar
    Guys, stock is stressing me... a lot
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_00000421.jpg 
Views:	384 
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ID:	140061

    Posted via CB10
    That is beautiful ,where was this photo taken
    03-09-13 10:21 AM
  11. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    That is beautiful ,where was this photo taken
    Kenya, Mombasa, white sands hotel. I'm a lucky guy

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy and gp656 like this.
    03-09-13 10:25 AM
  12. Tinomane's Avatar
    Was just at future shop picking up a car kit. Asked the girl at the cash how the phone has been selling and she said "really well!" She said it like she was actually surprised how well it is selling.
    plane6065 likes this.
    03-09-13 01:43 PM
  13. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Why is it frightening to you when you no longer hold any BBRY stocks? Maybe I misunderstood? Or are just trying to scare people here that are holding shares. Not quite sure what the objective of your post was.
    It shows that I am worried about BB even though I do ot own stock. I was using BB likely before you were born. I am not trying to scare anyone, just want to remind that there is another side to investing.

    Do you only want to hear the "rose garden" news our would you like to get a full array of opinions in this forum?
    03-09-13 01:55 PM
  14. toujours_frais's Avatar
    Well, it's been a long hard week and I'm going for a cold beer. Anybody wanting to join me is welcome. Have a safe and pleasant weekend!

    Attachment 139895
    Holy cow! They're delicious!
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-09-13 02:10 PM
  15. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I think everyone opinion and wisdom are worth reading...helps form a solid base to make ones own decisions.

    That said...i don't think we will see anything over 22.00 until second quarter numbers are confirmed...possibly even third quarter.

    Now on the later US release...I am of the thought camp that believes this was a brilliant marketing strategy...they will get updated software to help sell the unit AND guess what those sales are going to do to the second and third quarter figures...only going to help the stock price. I do not believe there is a shortage of availible devices...I think they are just selling that many more than thought...all bodes well for our shares. Long is generally over nine months so provided nothing catastrophic is confirmed from BlackBerry there is no reason to worry here...just my two cents.

    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    03-09-13 03:07 PM
  16. bungaboy's Avatar
    Anybody know what the difference is between an informed unbiased opinion and sounding like law school grad opinion?
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-09-13 03:47 PM
  17. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Anybody know what the difference is between an informed unbiased opinion and sounding like law school grad opinion?
    Don't think you'll get a law school grad opinion until you provide a retainer lol...blink blink.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-09-13 04:03 PM
  18. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    It shows that I am worried about BB even though I do ot own stock.
    Thanks for caring. Just that the caring part did not come through in your original message, only the fear did.

    I was using BB likely before you were born. I am not trying to scare anyone, just want to remind that there is another side to investing.
    I doubt it, unless the BB that you used was before RIM existed. I was born 39 years ago.

    Do you only want to hear the "rose garden" news our would you like to get a full array of opinions in this forum?
    I am not sure what you're saying here. Your original message was neither news nor opinions, it was just an expression of your fear and stating that the market was HOT and BBRY was NOT.
    I do indeed only want to hear "rose garden" news, if that's the only type of news available (not manufactured bad news or fears).
    I am here to read productive opinions and to learn, I was unable to understand the point of your post.
    03-09-13 08:46 PM
  19. BThunderW's Avatar
    I loaded up on April Calls on Friday. Hoping now that price will start creeping up towards the ER, rather than sit here and burn Theta. I'll buy some protective puts if we cross over $15. Otherwise I'll risk riding it down if the stock doesn't react favorably. Hoping for a decent finish on March 28th but not holding my breath. I think the following ER is going to be the one that flies, but it would be nice to see even a moderate pop.

    Only 13 more trading days before the hammer drops.
    03-09-13 11:12 PM
  20. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming?
    A pretty good read.

    Mar 10 2013, 4:52 | by Ashraf Eassa | about: BBRY
    Early on in my investing career (and I'll be honest -- it's still quite early), I would typically look at a list of highly shorted names, do some research on names that I had some familiarity with, and then take speculative positions ahead of upcoming catalysts. These would usually be upcoming product launches, earnings reports, and even just press events. The strategy was hectic, but at the end of the day I ended up making pretty good money after all was said and done.

    I recently took a position in BlackBerry (BBRY) on expectations of short covering ahead of, if not following, the launch of the BlackBerry Z10 in North America. In this article, I detail further my reasons for going long the stock ahead of this potential catalyst, and what the risk/reward profile looks like.

    The Reasoning Behind Taking The Long View

    Quite frankly, the reason I'm positioning long is almost entirely embedded in the following table:



    The short interest has increased by 43% over the last six months, and the current short interest represents 26% of the float! Now, this seems a little irrational in light of the following fairly recent developments and facts:

    CEO Thorsten Heins went on record to note that the company is encouraged by early Z10 sales
    The Z10 will be available in the USA starting March 22nd from AT&T (T) (this is the biggest catalyst)
    The company is still well capitalized, with $2.73B in cash on the books and no debt
    The company will be able to further built on momentum with the launch of its Q10 phone in 2Q 2013. The Z10 came first in order to build excitement and steal away share from Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and Google (GOOG) Android based phones, but the Q10 will clean up and bring on board the true BlackBerry loyalists who loved the original BlackBerry
    Essentially, you have a bunch of upcoming catalysts, the company is nowhere close to insolvent, and yet 26% of the float is shorted. Best of all? Tangible book value is ~$10/share, so downside is limited to about $3/share, but upside could be in the $18+ range (BlackBerry's book value).

    How To Play It

    This is a medium risk/high reward trade. The implied volatility is quite high, so buying puts to hedge a long common stock position may be a little expensive. At this point, I would simply take "Vegas money" (i.e. money you can afford to lose...please read my article, "Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake" for why you shouldn't bet the farm on a spec play) and buy the common.

    Now, I would normally recommend setting a "mental stop loss" for the position and tell you to sell if things get ugly. However, ahead of these truly major catalysts, something called a bear raid usually happens. Essentially, the short sellers that need to cover drive down the price of the stock, trigger all sorts of stop losses, which cascades into a huge drop followed by pretty immediate short covering that drives the stock back up.

    To play this, I recommend scaling into the position slowly. Want 500 shares? Buy them 100 at a time and on big drops. So if you go and buy your first 100 at $13, then maybe buy your next 100 at $12.5, and so on. If you can save some dry powder, wait for the "bear raid" that I mentioned and then add to your position accordingly.

    Shorting Puts: Selling Expensive Insurance

    Another slightly more sophisticated play would be to actually take advantage of the implied volatility and outright short puts. Here's what the put chain looks like for the March 22 expiration:


    Now, I realize that many of my readers may not be totally comfortable with options; by all means, feel free to skip right on over this! However for those of you who know how to play with fire, selling the $12.50 strike for $0.52 allows you to either pocket $0.52/share if the stock closes above $12.50 by expiration, or forces you to own the stock at $11.98 if the stock closes below $12.50. If you're bullish on the upcoming launch, then outright selling puts could be a lucrative venture, especially if you wouldn't mind owning the stock at $11.98. The $13 strike is also attractive, albeit it carries more risk.

    Warning: The Street Could "Sell The News"

    The tricky part about playing these catalysts is that everyone's aware of them. Just like the folks who bought Apple ahead of the iPhone 5 launch, folks trying to bet on a short squeeze here may be sorely disappointed as the buying pressure may not be there by the launch. The strategy, then, is to start selling into strength right before the launch if there is a real ramp in the stock price. Don't get greedy!

    Final Note: This Is A Trade

    This is, by all measures, a trade. I don't pretend to know what BlackBerry will be trading at 2 years from now, nor do I really care. The strategy outlined here is a fundamental/catalyst driven trade based on the upcoming North American BlackBerry 10 launch. Either it will drive the share price higher by triggering a squeeze (usually because analysts get excited and upgrade the stock), or it'll fizzle and could lead to losses. The risk/reward here is good, but risk is medium (not low) and reward can be high.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
    cjcampbell and bungaboy like this.
    03-10-13 09:58 AM
  21. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    Wow. Sounds like dude's setting himself up for some serious disappointment - there will be no short squeeze with the US launch. Any possible short squeeze is at least months away.
    03-10-13 10:19 AM
  22. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Wow. Sounds like dude's setting himself up for some serious disappointment - there will be no short squeeze with the US launch. Any possible short squeeze is at least months away.
    I agree. Unless there are huge lineups at the stores. I personally believe the September earnings is going to show how promising the company's recovery really is.

    Those bear raids are real though. For me, I have decided that I won't place any stop losses so I don't have to constantly watch the stock.
    Marc_Paradise likes this.
    03-10-13 11:05 AM
  23. morganplus8's Avatar
    Thought I would summarize the weeks trade with another chart:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-march-10-2013-chart.jpg

    We simply put in a bottom last week, volume dropped off big time and we stretched out the time we need to get to the US launch and earnings. The $ 13.00/shr held and even closed down there for option expiry on Friday, and finally, we created a top in the $ 13.55/shr area to break this week. It seemed like a busy week but it was anything but busy as the stock traded within one if its tightest ranges in awhile. What does it mean when we sit in one spot for a couple of weeks?

    This chart shows the Bollinger Bands and they are getting tight:
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-march-10a-2013-chart.jpg

    By the end of this coming week, these bands will be really tight, they are narrowing as the 22-day period of trade is slowing down and the beta or volatility is coming out of the stock. The thing about BB's is that they normally don't stay this way for very long. The low for the week should now be higher than the recent lows and every day we will challenge the $ 13.55/shr top to see if we can close above this level. If you are a buyer, you look to buy near the 5-dma at around the $ 13.00/shr mark. The 50-dma is rising again and it is our ultimate target for the next breakout. Basically, with the downtrend line falling to around $ 14.00/shr, the 50-dma is your first sign that the bull rally is back now. GL
    03-10-13 12:11 PM
  24. DudeBB's Avatar
    I came from vacation and no changes! Guys, this stock looks like Titanic! Numbers on news came down from millions of sold devices to 5000 bought by German gov't. It's really funny!
    03-10-13 04:00 PM
  25. morganplus8's Avatar
    I came from vacation ..................
    Is that code for you were in jail?
    03-10-13 04:07 PM
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