View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. bungaboy's Avatar
    How in tar nations can a stock trade sideways with that kind of volume?

    CB10'n it....via da Z30
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-yosemite_sam.gif
    Corbu, ibpluto, rarsen and 9 others like this.
    01-15-15 08:56 AM
  2. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong then and now. Samsung is not interested in BB10. They can neither use the OS for itself nor manufacture phones for it as part of the Google led Open Handset Alliance as the BB runtime is considered an incompatible Android fork.
    I think you missed my very first point:
    ==========
    Alternative OS / Reduced dependence on Android -
    1. Samsung has been trying to develop an alternative OS to Android. They are trying to reduce their dependence on Android. Instead of introducing a new OS (Tizen), they can simply acquire or license BlackBerry 10 OS which already has a decent (and improving) app systems. No need to invest billions on Tizen. Buy or license BB 10.
    =========

    This has nothign to do with Android. Samsung had openly declared their intention (at that time) to develop an alternative (non-Android) OS to reduce their dependence on Google/Android and Google's changing terms/conditions. So, they were developing Tizen.

    Tizen is/was still in infancy and they could simply buy out BB and get BB10/QNX OS with it and adopt BlackBerry as their OS and ditch Tizen. BB 10 / QNX os are already way ahead in every area. Simply buy that OS, put your money behind it. And kill Tizen while its still in the labs.

    Not sure where you got the idea that Android compatibility is a must-have. The whole idea (for Samsung) was to develop an OS that can stand without reliance on Android. Can run their appliances (from TVs to Phones).
    bbjdog likes this.
    01-15-15 09:02 AM
  3. morganplus8's Avatar
    If yesterday's rumour had never come out, we would be happy to be trading above the 50-dma at $ 10.55/shr, I can live with that. Now I have to go back and figure out all of my trades from yesterday and this morning! I'm exhausted already! Nice trading today on no news.
    ibpluto, Corbu, sidhuk and 20 others like this.
    01-15-15 09:04 AM
  4. JonCBK's Avatar
    Hi JonCBK,

    I agree with many of your points , I would add that when AH volume is substantially higher then their daily average volume, it matters. In addition, by law, BlackBerry has to explain an unusual movement in the value of their stock, especially when there is a rumour out there driving it. The real action begins tomorrow, do we fall back or is there something going on that includes a different company in the mix? The good news for investors is the the average purchase price of all of these shares is well above $ 10.00/shr! When everyone owns the stock at higher levels it tends to stay at those levels making the next leg up that much easier. GL
    Thanks. Good point about look at AH trading volume. In a case like this where that volume was really high, then it probably did predict the open very nicely.

    I think we've found support at a new level for this stock. The rumor is turning out to be old news and not an active transaction. But the valuation is being believed. And there seems to be a consensus that a $14 offer isn't going to do it. Now there may never be an offer. Or at least not another one anytime soon. But I and I suspect many BBRY holders are quite a bit happier about holding this stock now than we were 24 hours ago.

    And I also stand by my statement that this doesn't make sense as a short play any more. I don't know how to find out the total short positions in the stock, but it will be interesting to see if that number goes down.
    01-15-15 09:16 AM
  5. anon1727506's Avatar
    I think you missed my very first point:
    ==========
    Alternative OS / Reduced dependence on Android -
    1. Samsung has been trying to develop an alternative OS to Android. They are trying to reduce their dependence on Android. Instead of introducing a new OS (Tizen), they can simply acquire or license BlackBerry 10 OS which already has a decent (and improving) app systems. No need to invest billions on Tizen. Buy or license BB 10.
    =========

    This has nothign to do with Android. Samsung had openly declared their intention (at that time) to develop an alternative (non-Android) OS to reduce their dependence on Google/Android and Google's changing terms/conditions. So, they were developing Tizen.

    Tizen is/was still in infancy and they could simply buy out BB and get BB10/QNX OS with it and adopt BlackBerry as their OS and ditch Tizen. BB 10 / QNX os are already way ahead in every area. Simply buy that OS, put your money behind it. And kill Tizen while its still in the labs.

    Not sure where you got the idea that Android compatibility is a must-have. The whole idea (for Samsung) was to develop an OS that can stand without reliance on Android. Can run their appliances (from TVs to Phones).
    As long as Android is the dominate player.... wanting and having are not the same thing. A single OS to run all of Samsung products sound great, and I'm sure they want it to be THEIR OS that they control and that they more importantly own fully. But more importantly they want to sell products.. so if their OS isn't fully functional in markets where Apps are very important... they are smart enough to use what is.

    TIZEN is being used in sub $100 phones, and is marketed to first time buyers in markets where there aren't a lot of apps. It's no longer in the labs...

    Licensing BB10 (or buying BlackBerry) would add to the production cost.... and even at $100, Samsung is facing a lot of competition. Licensing would only work in a situation where BB10 brought an addition value to the end users that they would be willing to pay for. Which is why they are falling back to their enterprise niche, where management and security are important. Would be the only reason that Samsung would want BB10.
    01-15-15 09:22 AM
  6. ibpluto's Avatar
    Still trying to understand how a stock can trade sideways with this kind of volume. They have blown past their average daily volume and it's not even 10:30!!

    CB10'n it....via da Z30
    01-15-15 09:24 AM
  7. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    If yesterday's rumour had never come out, we would be happy to be trading above the 50-dma at $ 10.55/shr, I can live with that. Now I have to go back and figure out all of my trades from yesterday and this morning! I'm exhausted already! Nice trading today on no news.
    Agree, I am happy with where settled at. Just too bad I wasn't around to take advantage of it.
    If I was Samsung, I would be happy to pay Blackberry 3x the current value, because that would secure its dominance in smart devices and the internet of things. They could ship S5 running BB10 today and most of its customers wouldn't know the difference (except it works better).
    01-15-15 09:25 AM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    01-15-15 09:33 AM
  9. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    No problem! I just want everyone to be careful here, there is no offer, there is no sign, YET ................... of a major buyer in the market but tonight's reaction to BlackBerry publically stating there has been no talks is very interesting. We should have sold off back to even on the day if we were lucky, but, we are much higher. I personally can't wait to see what happens on volume tomorrow with a full day of trading. Anyone acquiring more than 9.9% of a company has to step forward immediately and state their reason for the position. We have seen a ton of stock trade and tomorrow there is 6.5 hours of trading not to mention PM and AH. I can hardly sleep! GL
    You are too humble.
    When I said "you are awesome!" to my colleagues, which I don't do often, they would usually respond, "I am indeed!".
    When I said "you rock!", they would respond, "I certainly do!" LOL
    01-15-15 09:34 AM
  10. spiller's Avatar
    So we were at 11 a few weeks ago. Then down to 9.2x. Then rumours saying the company is worth $7B share based on legit offers.

    Should that not put a higher floor on this stock?

    Does it look like the shorts are working hard this morning to keep this low and from getting away from them? Who can read the trades?

    I hope that they are working hard and they lose...and this afternoon it starts to get away from them and closes at 11.50. Then 12 to close the week.
    01-15-15 09:34 AM
  11. bbjdog's Avatar
    M+8 give John Chen aa call and find out what is happening! This is killing me.

    BB10 and Android in a sandbox, I will be happy.

    Posted via CB10
    01-15-15 09:36 AM
  12. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    Let's put things into perspective...

    Whatsghey sold for $19 or 22 billion when it had 420 million users.. (something like that)

    Considering allllllllll the news that was recently announced at CES and recent developments this past year, acquisitions, etc from the BB camp

    $7.5 billion, even for 1 of the BB divisions..... is insulting.


    (just want to throw this in there in this great discussion)
    ok thanks
    01-15-15 09:38 AM
  13. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Did some have "news" the 13th already ? (hint: see volume)
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png
    01-15-15 09:38 AM
  14. Superfly_FR's Avatar

    (just want to throw this in there in this great discussion)
    ok thanks
    small is beautiful
    01-15-15 09:39 AM
  15. spiller's Avatar
    Did some have "news" the 13th already ? (hint: see volume)
    Click image for larger version. 

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    covered by the 'short' reports that day?
    bbjdog likes this.
    01-15-15 09:43 AM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    From the usual band of suspects...
    BlackBerry Crashes: Street Can?t Believe Samsung Would Want Patents That Badly - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are down $2, or 16%, at $10.60, continuing after-hours losses following the company’s statement last night that it has not been in takeover talks with Samsung Electronics (005930KS) controverting the assertion of a Reuters piece yesterday.

    Canada’s Globe & Mail’s Jacquie McNish and Sean Silcoff yesterday afternoon reported that BlackBerry “has shunned a handful of potential buyers in recent months as its board of directors and largest investor continue to support a turnaround,” citing multiple unnamed sources.

    Unlike the Samsung report, however, McNich and Silcoff’s reporting suggests the bids for the company were below the current stock price.

    The frantic bidding yesterday, though, has prompted some response from some analysts, however.

    Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um, who has a Market Perform rating on the shares, and a $9.50 to $10.50 “valuation range,” this morning writes that he sees takeout value of $13.15, including patents:

    Assuming the majority of its intangible assets (comprised of patents, licenses and acquired technology) are related to patents and taking the midpoint of the suggested takeout range of $7.6B ($14.42/shr), this would value the core business at $4.4B ex-cash ($9.03/shr). Our sum of the parts would suggest a total value of $13.15/shr assuming it can get 1x for its intangible assets ($2.77/shr credit only if it were to sell), 1.0x hardware revenue, 0.3x Services, and 4.0x Software & Other. Excluding the intangible assets would yield a $10.50/shr value. We believe Hardware is likely to be the biggest variable both from a multiple and revenue perspective (depends on profitability and units). We also note that our forecast does not assume BBRY achieves its target revenue of $500MM for Software and $100MM for BBM.

    Ehud Gelblum with Citigroup, who has a Sell rating on the shares, and an $8 price target writes that he “would have been surprised if Samsung were to have been truly interested given that Blackberry was shopped in late Summer 2013 and found no bidders.”

    Gelblum also wonders why Samsung would add a third operating system to support:

    Samsung announced just last week that it is putting the Tizen OS on all of its TVs and released a new Tizen-based smartphone just today called the Z1, which is a low-end phone for India at the equivalent ASP of $92, meaning that adding BB10 would give Samsung 3 operating systems to juggle across its devices product portfolio—a potentially unwieldy number. We therefore believe that any thesis claiming Samsung’s potential interest in BBRY on account of BB10 is tenuous.

    Gelblum also thinks the patents are worth relatively little:

    Other reports in the press cited Samsung’s potential desire to acquire BBRY for its patent portfolio, an asset that we believe is worth just $400M, or ~$0.75 / sh in our sum of parts valuation. We also note that the Rockstar portfolio of Nortel 4G patents, which BBRY owned a ~1/6th stake in, was just sold 3 weeks ago for $900M implying BBRY should receive ~$150M cash but no other value for those patent assets. In addition, the difficulty Rockstar has had licensing those Nortel patents demonstrates the lower value that we believe gets attributed to patents in today’s world vs 2012. We therefore do not believe either Samsung, or any other potential bidder out there, would be interested in Blackberry for its IPR assets.

    R.W. Baird‘s William Power, who has a Neutral rating, and a $9 target, writes “Given that BlackBerry’s disparate businesses are in various states of flux (MDM just starting, hardware in turnaround, and legacy services en route to zero), we don’t believe an acquisition is likely near term.”

    He, like Gelblum, is skeptical of the reported patent price:

    Although the article notes that Samsung’s primary interest is BlackBerry’s patent portfolio, $6-7.5 billion is a lot to pay for aging patents, in our view – not to mention that they were previously available for less during the multiple times that BlackBerry tried to sell itself in 2012 and 2013. Samsung could be interested in BBRY’s secure MDM platform, possibly to enhance or replace its own Knox platform, but that business is still very early days.
    bungaboy, rarsen, bbjdog and 8 others like this.
    01-15-15 09:45 AM
  17. Glenn Biddle's Avatar
    And yet Samsung was also up 13% on the rumor. So it seems that Samsung investors thought that BlackBerry was a pretty good buy at 7.5 Billion.

    Posted via CB10
    01-15-15 09:50 AM
  18. bbjdog's Avatar
    01-15-15 09:54 AM
  19. morganplus8's Avatar
    Agree, I am happy with where settled at. Just too bad I wasn't around to take advantage of it.
    If I was Samsung, I would be happy to pay Blackberry 3x the current value, because that would secure its dominance in smart devices and the internet of things. They could ship S5 running BB10 today and most of its customers wouldn't know the difference (except it works better).
    I hoped to hear that you are satisfied with the stock over the past 24 hours, I hope others are too. When a stock that could have been bought all day just below its 200-dma ends up trading $ 1.20/shr higher today, comfortably, and above its 50-dma you have to be pleased when the rumour had less than 1/10 of 1% of been productive. We are holding well in here, with 6.5 hours of trading today, huge volume, this is the real test and so far I like it. Investors are getting used to the stock above $ 10.00 and as many others have said, the window to short this play is closing every day now.

    I sold a block of HALO yesterday at $ 15.02/shr to pay for my BBRY purchase below its 200-dma that morning, I left the screen, talked to my wife about selling HALO and buying BBRY and she flat out said "no" to that idea. Imagine the fun I had with her last night. So now I have sold the BBRY in my trading account and bought back my HALO on weakness and I'm up about 15% on the total number of shares owned in just one day. I know, 15% doesn't sound like much of a gain to get excited about considering that BBRY went up 30% from it neutral price, but that's 1,500 more shares than I started out with in that account 24 hours ago. I couldn't be more pleased.

    So now I'm turn my attention back to BBRY and hope it can hold onto that 50-dma today while trading a ton of stock. At some point, investors will use $ 10.00 to average down on their holdings and the shorts will be screwed. I like the idea of a $ 10.00 to $ 14.00 range for the first half of 2015 ............... yeah, that sounds good! Good luck!
    01-15-15 09:56 AM
  20. bspence87's Avatar
    Still trying to understand how a stock can trade sideways with this kind of volume. They have blown past their average daily volume and it's not even 10:30!!

    CB10'n it....via da Z30
    Maybe Samsung is acquiring shares haha.

    Posted via CB10
    01-15-15 09:57 AM
  21. bbjdog's Avatar
    I have to add my 2 cents worth, even if Canada doesn't make cents anymore. Samsung started selling Bes12 correct! so what if Samsung knows something we don't? This is only me daydreaming but it does tweak my brain cells.
    01-15-15 09:58 AM
  22. sidhuk's Avatar
    Maybe Samsung is acquiring shares haha.

    Posted via CB10
    I was thinking the same. Lol. Never say never.

    Posted using BlackBerry passport.
    bungaboy likes this.
    01-15-15 10:03 AM
  23. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    It wasn't Me!!
    Yesterday in the space of 15 minutes 6 million shares earned someone $5.2 million!

    Attachment 327492
    bbjdog and bungaboy like this.
    01-15-15 10:05 AM
  24. sidhuk's Avatar
    I have to add my 2 cents worth, even if Canada doesn't make cents anymore. Samsung started selling Bes12 correct! so what if Samsung knows something we don't? This is only me daydreaming but it does tweak my brain cells.
    Blackberry has said that the initial Bes12/knox partnership is just the tip of the ice-cream. Lol. Many more things to come out between two of these companies.
    It is shorts propaganda and low share price which makes the general market forget about those statements.

    Posted using BlackBerry passport.
    01-15-15 10:06 AM
  25. jake simmons3's Avatar
    Id like to remind everyone that BBRY should see an extra 50-100mill on there balance sheets next qtr do to the patent sale a few weeks ago
    01-15-15 10:22 AM
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