View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. bbjdog's Avatar
    Change of topic: Blackberry Classic sold out in UK at shopblackberry.com

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-classicuk.png
    01-08-15 10:35 PM
  2. dusdal's Avatar
    So my understanding of BES 12 licensing is that there are silver and gold annual licenses, each with 'advantage' or 'premium' level support tiers. The subscription pricing is below:

    Silver:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20150108_194725_edit.png

    Gold:

    Attachment 326182


    If we assume an even split between the two and also assume advantage level support we could use ~ $53/year/license or ~ $13 per quarter or ~ $4 per month
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20150108_194725_edit.png  
    01-08-15 10:52 PM
  3. Munx's Avatar
    That's not true. BlackBerry offered a 10% discount for companies that convert their EZ-PASS licenses to a paid one by December 17. You could see a few million converts from that.

    They have also started BBM monetization, as well as all of the paid add-ons to BES12. Who knows how much QNX is making, but I bet they're already starting to see revenues from Ford.

    Then there is the partnership with Samsung. They might be getting frontloaded some of that money.

    I'm sure I forgot a few avenues, but you (well, anyone else willing to listen) get the point.


    Posted via CB10
    Yes I get the point and I agree. The problem is that software rev is small relative to the other two categories (service and HW) - so even large quarterly percentage gains don't yet account for much. Although we certainly need to see software come on strong. So point taken but it (quarterly software gains) won't amount to much in Q4.

    Posted via CB10
    01-08-15 11:00 PM
  4. Corbu's Avatar
    01-08-15 11:05 PM
  5. dusdal's Avatar
    BBOS licenses are the same price as Silver:


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20150108_200145_edit.png

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, Corbu, rarsen and 3 others like this.
    01-08-15 11:08 PM
  6. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Yes I get the point and I agree. The problem is that software rev is small relative to the other two categories (service and HW) - so even large quarterly percentage gains don't yet account for much. Although we certainly need to see software come on strong. So point taken but it (quarterly software gains) won't amount to much in Q4.

    Posted via CB10
    Q4 is going to be break-even or slightly better. Real fun begins in Q2 when lot of companies have deployed BES12 and have started paying subscription fee to BlackBerry.

    To bridge revenue from showing a big decline and maintain relatively flat trend through Q4, Q1. Chen is doing his best to control inventory (manufacturing costs) and deferring revenue recognition to next quarter.

    The way I see it, they could have delivered significantly more Passports in Q3 but once they got to break-even, Chen figured, it's better to delay the delivery of remaining Passport orders by couple of weeks so that they fall into next quarter's earning. This way, the unexpected extra orders of Passport help offset some (if not all) decline in service revenue to come in Q4. This way, they maintain a relatively flat trend.

    I suspect he'd do similar for Q1 too -- Classic would be launched in most countries towards the end of Q4 so that delivery (and hence revenue recognition) happens in Q1. And relatively flat trend is maintained. Q2 - they start to get subscription fee again and will start showing growth Quarter on Quarter.

    So, if you want to get cheap stock, I think Q1 is probably last opportunity before BlackBerry starts firing on all cylinders. Q2 onwards, BlackBerry will likely show continuous growths, quarter after quarter and stock would keep going up and not fall back to $10-$12 levels again. And who knows next Q3, we might witness short-squeeze.
    01-08-15 11:09 PM
  7. dusdal's Avatar
    Well considering there were 10million EZ-PASS adopters with only a month until expiry, I would say a good number.



    Posted via CB10
    The last I saw was 6.8 Mln licenses. Did he update it more recently?

    Posted via CB10
    01-08-15 11:18 PM
  8. Munx's Avatar
    Oh yeah, that old QGV allowance, I completely forgot to include $ 20 MM miscellaneous contingency funds for whatever. Me bad.

    You are being called out for claiming the following:

    "Quote Originally Posted by Munx View Post
    The number of $50-60M comes from the company. This is the 15% service revenue loss that they will not be able to overcome with hardware sales in Q4. The company's exact statement regarding Q4 revenue challenges can be found in their EDGAR filing which should be mandatory reading for all investors. GL."

    Posted via CB10"

    There is no way you can claim that BB can't have solid passport sales, or strong enough hardware sales in general to approach Q3 gross revenue numbers, let alone claim services can't be replaced at all. Please read your claim over again and tell me how they cannot over come the loss in services.

    I still maintain that the variables are so complex moving away from bulk BB 10 legacy phones to Passports and Classics that no one is able to determine whether passport sales are weak or not (Funny thing though, Chen thinks Passport sales are very good). It's all relative to prior figures that don't exist. So it all boils down to your claim that BB can't make up services losses at all.
    I standby the quote you selected as both factual and accurate. Further, I believe the financials and company statements support my claim that Passport sales are weak more strongly than your claim that Q3 Passport sales were 400-500k. Let's say weak is less than this range.

    My 'claim that BlackBerry can't make up services revenue' is simply echoing company statements. Chen has said on several occasions that revenue has yet to bottom. Perhaps you should call him out as well.

    Posted via CB10
    01-08-15 11:31 PM
  9. Munx's Avatar
    Q4 is going to be break-even or slightly better. Real fun begins in Q2 when lot of companies have deployed BES12 and have started paying subscription fee to BlackBerry.

    To bridge revenue from showing a big decline and maintain relatively flat trend through Q4, Q1. Chen is doing his best to control inventory (manufacturing costs) and deferring revenue recognition to next quarter.

    The way I see it, they could have delivered significantly more Passports in Q3 but once they got to break-even, Chen figured, it's better to delay the delivery of remaining Passport orders by couple of weeks so that they fall into next quarter's earning. This way, the unexpected extra orders of Passport help offset some (if not all) decline in service revenue to come in Q4. This way, they maintain a relatively flat trend.

    I suspect he'd do similar for Q1 too -- Classic would be launched in most countries towards the end of Q4 so that delivery (and hence revenue recognition) happens in Q1. And relatively flat trend is maintained. Q2 - they start to get subscription fee again and will start showing growth Quarter on Quarter.

    So, if you want to get cheap stock, I think Q1 is probably last opportunity before BlackBerry starts firing on all cylinders. Q2 onwards, BlackBerry will likely show continuous growths, quarter after quarter and stock would keep going up and not fall back to $10-$12 levels again. And who knows next Q3, we might witness short-squeeze.
    I 100% agree. Defer as much revenue as possible to later quarters and I think you are spot on with you SP timing forecasts.

    Posted via CB10
    Bacon Munchers likes this.
    01-08-15 11:42 PM
  10. Munx's Avatar
    The last I saw was 6.8 Mln licenses. Did he update it more recently?

    Posted via CB10
    6.8M was the last reported figure. 10-12M was provided as the current enterprise base.

    Posted via CB10
    01-08-15 11:44 PM
  11. bspence87's Avatar
    6.8M was the last reported figure. 10-12M was provided as the current enterprise base.

    Posted via CB10
    Right, thanks for the correction. Even at that, not that out-of-line to suggest (based on current uptake) that, that number will be 10mil by next ER.

    Posted via CB10
    01-08-15 11:48 PM
  12. dusdal's Avatar
    What's a reasonably conversion rate of that 6.8 for the current Q. 30%?

    At $4 per month that would have an impact of $16.3 Mln in the current quarter.

    Posted via CB10
    01-09-15 01:23 AM
  13. CDM76's Avatar
    Omg!!!!
    I'd buy that in orange tomorrow....if it was real

    Posted via CB10
    01-09-15 01:35 AM
  14. bspence87's Avatar
    What's a reasonably conversion rate of that 6.8 for the current Q. 30%?

    At $4 per month that would have an impact of $16.3 Mln in the current quarter.

    Posted via CB10
    Yeah, that's assuming there were no other subscriptions since the ER. And assuming there are no add-ons. And assuming the conversion rate is only 30%. And not accounting for BBM revenue.

    You start adding these up and it starts approaching that $50mil number.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal, bbjdog, bungaboy and 1 others like this.
    01-09-15 02:22 AM
  15. dusdal's Avatar
    The MDM market was difficult enough to size before. Now that they've added autos, hospital patients and shipping containers it's even more difficult to stay conservative haha.

    Posted via CB10
    CDM76, rarsen, bungaboy and 5 others like this.
    01-09-15 02:51 AM
  16. HSB1996's Avatar
    Fact: Hardware sales consistently miss estimates by a large margin.

    Do we really have any reason to think the trend will not continue? Odds are they will probably sell 500k less devices than they did last quarter.

    The difference was Heins built a fixed cost structure where they needed to sell 7M a quarter just to break even (guessing). Chen has built a variable cost structure, allowing for economies of scale. Letting Foxcon do what they do best, at least for the Z3 and Classic.

    We are going to see improved profit margins and gross margins again, since in Q2 CFO indicated the restructuring charges were mostly done. We saw the benefits of that in Q3. We can assume all the way done for Q4.
    jxnb and Shanerredflag like this.
    01-09-15 03:20 AM
  17. bspence87's Avatar
    The MDM market was difficult enough to size before. Now that they've added autos, hospital patients and shipping containers it's even more difficult to stay conservative haha.

    Posted via CB10
    Agreed! So many variables and blindly guessing uptake...
    Exciting times to be a BlackBerry shareholder.

    Posted via CB10
    01-09-15 03:34 AM
  18. BanffMoose's Avatar
    I love this thread. Thank you everyone!
    dusdal, rarsen, bungaboy and 9 others like this.
    01-09-15 03:35 AM
  19. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    I standby the quote you selected as both factual and accurate. Further, I believe the financials and company statements support my claim that Passport sales are weak more strongly than your claim that Q3 Passport sales were 400-500k. Let's say weak is less than this range.

    My 'claim that BlackBerry can't make up services revenue' is simply echoing company statements. Chen has said on several occasions that revenue has yet to bottom. Perhaps you should call him out as well.

    Posted via CB10
    Maybe we are talking in different languages, but I don't see how your guesses and predictions could be claim as factual and accurate. Anyway, here is another opinion: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2805...12401&uprof=14

    Posted via CB10
    01-09-15 04:37 AM
  20. BACK-2-BLACK's Avatar
    Does anyone know of where I can download a Free Stock tracking software or excel file ?

    Doesn't have to be too fancy or track live,(even though that would be nice) but allow me to input values when I buy and sell quantities and be able to show me the value of each transaction and to update my position after inputting the values.
    bungaboy and StormieTwo like this.
    01-09-15 07:24 AM
  21. bungaboy's Avatar
    Does anyone know of where I can download a Free Stock tracking software or excel file ?

    Doesn't have to be too fancy or track live,(even though that would be nice) but allow me to input values when I buy and sell quantities and be able to show me the value of each transaction and to update my position after inputting the values.
    Would be nice. I do it manually on excel. At least it forces me to look at my bad moves. LoL
    bbjdog likes this.
    01-09-15 08:23 AM
  22. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Hi guys. As you may know, we live in a nightmare (2 hostage cases right now, 2 deaths) so I'm not in the mood ...
    But just saw this : Sources: Good Technology Axes More Than 100 Jobs | TechCrunch
    watch the stock.
    01-09-15 08:48 AM
  23. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    The MDM market was difficult enough to size before. Now that they've added autos, hospital patients and shipping containers it's even more difficult to stay conservative haha.

    Posted via CB10
    Lol, no kidding...which also begs the question: Can we count each of the new container tracking gadgets as devices?? Technically they are hardened smart phones without screens or keyboards...well???

    Classically Posted.
    01-09-15 08:51 AM
  24. morganplus8's Avatar
    ........................ Chen has said on several occasions that revenue has yet to bottom. Perhaps you should call him out as well.

    Posted via CB10
    So I had no problem getting through to John Chen last night, it seems if you own BBRY stock and don't have an agenda he is always available,
    and what with the time change, no problem reaching him.

    Anyway, here's what he had to say:

    Me: Hi John, sorry to bother you but we are having a debate on the CB board and there's a question about your fiscal projections for Q4, can you set us straight?

    John: Hi MP8 .... you and everyone on that board read the Edgar Reports, what could be unclear about my statement? I see BB having a difficult time beating $ 793 MM in revenue and services will be weak in Q4. What's not to understand?

    Me: We have this one guy, uses words like conjecture a lot, side steps questions, no numbers, no forecasts, nothing to hang his hat on, redirects challenges and thinks a maiden launch of passport with have poor results in Q4. He tends to restate everything you just said but claims he doesn't understand you, reflects back, you know, not your typical investor who refers to data.

    John: I know that guy, is he bald? He is either that former Mayor of Toronto or that guy on CNBC. I met him on TV.

    Me: Well it can't be Rob Ford, he uses numbers and letters to back up his claims, it must be that other guy.

    John: Well, That guy sure didn't want me signing autographs for his staff there, seemed to hold an agenda and it made no sense to me so I turned his interview down.

    MP8: Do you think he was mad that he didn't has some BBRY in his Charitable Trust Fund?

    John and MP8 together: We both laughed!!!

    John: Steer clear of BBRY friends who don't use numbers and letters! Got to go, we are seeing real upticks in our Passports and Classics in the US now, pre-orders are flying in. All you need to know is that we are trying to beat $ 793 MM in Q4 the rest if it is pure conjecture!

    John and MP8: We both laughed!!!

    MP8: Here's to you being wrong on the revenue number next Q!!
    01-09-15 08:54 AM
  25. leafs123's Avatar
    OT: Prayers for France, sickening to see what's happening. Can't help but think this is coordinated.
    01-09-15 08:59 AM
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