[La Emperor]

The dilution factor is very important:

We show 520 MM shares outstanding for EPS reports each quarter, if we add in the additional 125 MM shares that are converted shares at $ 10.00 from the bond issue, we get 645 MM shares which are than used to determine EPS down the road. If we have to feed more shares from the same earnings pool, we get a dilution factor that affects the target price of the stock that analysts set for the next 12 months. So far, they are adjusting those shares as a liability to BlackBerry and we see non cash charges each quarter. Unfortunately, the media picks up on those charges every single month stating that we lost more than we did. Do you want to hear that BBRY lost $ .28/shr when they actually made money? Nor do I so I would like those shares to be absorbed such that we don't hear the media and analysts talk insistently about losses that don't exist.

The good news about the bond issue is the money, short of that benefit, we are paying $ 60 MM a year in interest on that money and we have $ 3.1 B in cash. At some point, when we are cash-flow positive, wouldn't it be nice to buy back some of that debt and reduce the number of diluted shares outstanding, not likely to happen but what every investor wants is fewer shares and higher earnings. Hope this helps.

Morgan,

Given all these information, is there a correlation on why the total # of shorts seem to be hovering around 120MM shares, (give or take a few points) always trying to pin down the sp around 10, guaranteeing someone a 6% interest regardless of how BBRY performs.

Thanks a bunch! Am always grateful for all your efforts here, along with a great number of people who makes this thread ultra special.

LaE

[chrysaurora]

Wind has announced BlackBerry Classic now! Coming soon.
BlackBerry Classic

[randall2580]

OT but related to what companies face when considering security, first part discusses mobile:

What Cyber Security Threats Can We Expect in 2015?: Video - Bloomberg

[bspence87]

I've sure it's been said a dozen times, but I can't find it: when does Chen present at CES?

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Morgan,

Given all these information, is there a correlation on why the total # of shorts seem to be hovering around 120MM shares, (give or take a few points) always trying to pin down the sp around 10, guaranteeing someone a 6% interest regardless of how BBRY performs.

Thanks a bunch! Am always grateful for all your efforts here, along with a great number of people who makes this thread ultra special.

LaE

La Emperor !!

This is pure conjecture on my part but I believe that there is little surprise that the short position mirrors the size of the bond issue, that safety blanket means that shorts have an out at some price. When you subtract the number of shares that are held by long term funds and investors, you have a net number of trading shares which I believe lands around the 250 MM mark. And so the days to cover ratio is really limited to what 250 MM shares are looking for to sell to the shorts, not the aggregate number or 520 MM plus the bonds. We are locked on the $ 10.00 mark because it is a huge hurdle to overcome. We seem to be getting used to the idea that absorbing those shares are possible now. For instance, if the company is expected to earn $ .28/shr this year, an EPS that should entitle us to at least 20 times EPS for a target stock price, ( $ 5.60 plus $ 6.00/shr cash) we are there now. That means we won't be seeing a stock rally this year I'm sorry to say. The shorts know this, any Fund worth its weight is not looking at 2015 to make capital gains, yet you and I sure are! You see the problem we have? We have to earn that $ .28/shr, and show a driver that is growing and absorb those 125 MM shares at $ 10.00/shr. That is why this stock is having such a hard time rallying from here. I keep saying that we need a driver, just one sector of the business that is growing, handsets, services, software, something, and then you can expand on that P/E ratio (price to earnings ratio) and the stock can be projected higher. Because of this hurdle, the shorts are betting that there is a 80/20 % chance that BBRY can't deliver on one growth target. They won't cover a single share until services stop dropping for instance. BUT, the tides are changing, BB has some interesting growth ops and we might see one of them pop soon. The numbers for handsets is so important as they are defined by Chen himself who stated that we need 10 MM to justify that sector. If we look to be projecting 12 MM, that's a growth sector!! The shorts think the ball is in their court and this bond issue is their safety blanket. They know when Watsa breaks even on his investment and earns 6% on his bonds, they know the bonds will convert at his price, they know the playing field .... with the exception of those drivers. Consumers and Enterprise are a crazy wildcard, no one knows when they will turn. Could the Sony scandal be the turning point? I think we are distended to see some positive news soon and this is why the DOW can crash on weak oil prices and BBRY just drops back to its 50-dma.

All the ducks are in a row for BB, they just have to deliver on their business model and have one surprise and then you will see a sustained rally. I think it will come soon. The shorts are looking at today, we tested the 50-dma held it and are looking to move higher, just give the general market a chance to stabilize and we are moving up from here. A DOW below its 200-dma would drop BBRY back to $ 10.00, that's about it. I can't see the short position going higher now, I can see it retracting from here and everyone will have their eyes on that area just above $ 11.00/shr. The general market hasn't looked this good in years, we just need to see oil stabilize down here and watch Putin get kicked out of power. I'm obviously super bullish now, I like BBRY, and I like pharma big time for the next 4 months.

Regarding OT:
We talk about this thread as not a place for OT subjects but in fact, that implies that we want to send a message to everyone reading this thread that you must own BlackBerry stock and nothing else. I shutter to think what kind of trouble everyone would be in if that were the only message we wanted shareholders and new investors to follow. We learn from investing in general and one important lesson is to not have all of your funds in one trade. I really don't want a new comer with one post to tell me what I can say and what I can't.

[Corbu]

I've sure it's been said a dozen times, but I can't find it: when does Chen present at CES?

Tomorrow morning, I believe.

[dusdal]

Tomorrow morning, I believe.

Correct according to these folks too http://n4bb.com/blackberry-ceo-john-...orrow-morning/

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

As CES 2015 Goes Car Crazy, BlackBerry?s QNX Dominates Market Today ? and Tomorrow | Inside BlackBerry

[Munx]

Thoughts on timing of the turnaround�.

There was a lot noise regarding the revenue shortfall last quarter, which came in at $793M. When this news first broke, I thought the shorts (and capitulating longs) were going to drive the price down much further. But it appears cash flow break even and Chen�s subsequent Q&A discussion won the day and the stock responded strongly with a reversal back to break even.

A lot of analysts chimed in after the event, and one of their comments regarding company Q4 revenue projections caught my eye. Here is the relevant excerpt from Blackberry�s EDGAR filing:

�The Company anticipates a challenging fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 in terms of revenue, followed by revenue stabilization and eventual return to revenue growth sometime in fiscal 2016.�

So the company is projecting yet lower revenue in Q4! A particularly disappointing outcome considering the purportedly strong Passport sales (can�t be THAT strong) and some Classic revenue recognition. What is interesting is that the market participants are aware of this, and the stock has since rallied. So cash flow is currently trumping the �revenue shrinking equals dying company� short narrative.

Summing all of the above, Chen seems to be clearly pointing to revenue reversal later next year, and I don�t see how we can have a meaningful rally (say a sustained 12 handle) until this occurs, notwithstanding a major partnership or massive BES12 sub uptakes. Unfortunately Passport and Classic sales do not appear sufficient to reverse the revenue trend in the short term.

[BACK-2-BLACK]

Thoughts on timing of the turnaround�.

There was a lot noise regarding the revenue shortfall last quarter,

But it appears cash flow break even and Chen�s subsequent Q&A discussion won the day and the stock responded strongly with a reversal back to break even.

A lot of analysts chimed in after the event:

�The Company anticipates a challenging fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 in terms of revenue, followed by revenue stabilization and eventual return to revenue growth sometime in fiscal 2016.�

So the company is projecting yet lower revenue in Q4! A particularly disappointing outcome considering the purportedly strong Passport sales (can�t be THAT strong) and some Classic revenue recognition. What is interesting is that the market participants are aware of this, and the stock has since rallied. So cash flow is currently trumping the �revenue shrinking equals dying company� short narrative.

Summing all of the above, Chen seems to be clearly pointing to revenue reversal later next year, and I don�t see how we can have a meaningful rally (say a sustained 12 handle) until this occurs, notwithstanding a major partnership or massive BES12 sub uptakes. Unfortunately Passport and Classic sales do not appear sufficient to reverse the revenue trend in the short term.

Do you know what the Passport and Classic sales are?

He did hint that revenue generation was the going to be the most challenging during these transition quarter(s)....but as one article mentioned, "this is the easiest part" now that the spending has been controlled and the company is showing they can sell handsets at a profit.

I believe the rally or stock stabilization is based on what they have planned to roll out this year for revenue generation(which seem to be quite a few potential streams that were non existent before).

I believe the market is beyond rating them purely on revenue generation (for now) and buying into Chen's plan for growth since he has been proving himself and his word with his team this past 13 months.

[Munx]

I guess I was surprised that the company is guiding for yet further revenue contraction in Q4. Based on the discussion in this thread I believe most expected revenues would be higher, not lower, especially considering:

1. Q3 revenue was a big miss, making it an easy comparable to beat in Q4.
2. Chen mentioned that the majority of Passport sales in Q3 will actually be recognized in Q4. His exact quote:
�I also want to remind everybody that our revenue of these devices are all recognized on a sell-through basis. So not every one of those units, in fact most of those units revenue are not recognized in Q3. And we obviously will recognize as they lead [ph] up in throughout the next few quarters.�
3. Recognition of Classic sales in Q4.

So you have a lower comp, and the majority of your �strong selling� high ASP device revenue being recognized in the coming quarter�yet the company still predicts lower revenue.

And despite all of this, the stock rallies. Shorts must hate that outcome. But as a long, I think it also diminishes the possibility of a significant rally as I mentioned above.

[DaSchwantz]

Underpromise overdeliver

Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

OT: M+8 You rock!!

last year I asked about this stock OMER (quote below) and you gave me some good insight, thank you. Today the stock touched $25 and I took all the profit I made over 100% of my initial investment. thank you thank you.
Now what do you think about the stock? should I totally get out or keep what I invested.

Thank you as always!!!
Edit : this is what BBRY could be in one year (hoping)

That is an amazing chart pattern, good news today, the stock float is light and they have cash!! I think it has some legs left as they are making 52 week highs and pulling back to rest.

This is exactly what we want BBRY to do in the coming months, to march steadily higher, pause to refresh, and move again on some positive news. Great investment that you have there!

I would say that this chart pattern is one of the best ones out there today, we should be so lucky to eventually have this pattern for BBRY, and it just might happen. BBRY is about to see a [B]Golden Cross on Wednesday [/B ]of next week, from that time on, the stock will officially become bullish to everyone in the free world. When the "old months" of trading drop off in the months ahead, the chart for BBRY will develop into a wonderful one year chart too. It is worth stating that BBRY can also have a great chart pattern and it can happen in the latter half of 2014. Thanks

[plasmid_boy]

I guess I was surprised that the company is guiding for yet further revenue contraction in Q4. Based on the discussion in this thread I believe most expected revenues would be higher, not lower, especially considering:

1. Q3 revenue was a big miss, making it an easy comparable to beat in Q4.
2. Chen mentioned that the majority of Passport sales in Q3 will actually be recognized in Q4. His exact quote:
“I also want to remind everybody that our revenue of these devices are all recognized on a sell-through basis. So not every one of those units, in fact most of those units revenue are not recognized in Q3. And we obviously will recognize as they lead [ph] up in throughout the next few quarters.”
3. Recognition of Classic sales in Q4.

So you have a lower comp, and the majority of your ‘strong selling’ high ASP device revenue being recognized in the coming quarter…yet the company still predicts lower revenue.

And despite all of this, the stock rallies. Shorts must hate that outcome. But as a long, I think it also diminishes the possibility of a significant rally as I mentioned above.

All that is offset by decline in service revenue associated with legacy devices, which occurs every time a BB10 is sold to replace legacy OS. They are projecting a decline of about 15%. Chen is planing to fill that hole with software and other revenue streams, projected to occur in FY2016. Then grow from that base. Hope that this helps to clear things up a bit for you.

[tdovey]

OT: HALO

Not too much action on the BBRY front until the CES news soaks in, but I know some of us here hold HALO as well. HALO on the other hand has their investor meeting tomorrow morning. Up nearly 4% in AM trading already. Found an interesting article, not sure if it relates to HALO directly but it sure seems there is some correlation:

__________________________________________________ ______
Clinical trial gives hope to Phoenix man with pancreatic cancer

SCOTTSDALE, AZ (CBS5) -
A Phoenix man with pancreatic cancer, who was told he only had months to live, says he has been given a second chance at life.

Phil Zeblisky, 57, said doctors at two cancer centers considered his stage four pancreatic cancer a death sentence.

"When you're given that kind of diagnosis, you need to put meaning into your life," Zeblisky said.

He enrolled in a clinical trial at the Virginia G. Piper Cancer Center, which is part of the Scottsdale Healthcare Network, thinking he could at least help the doctors there with their research.

After nearly six months of treatments, Zeblisky's cancer is undetectable on scans.

"It's amazing," Zeblisky said.

Dr. Erkut Borazanci developed an individualized therapy for Zeblisky, using genetics and a unique drug combination.

"We try to best fit an individual's cancer to a clinical trial and therapy," Borazanci explained.

"Pancreas cancer forms a barrier around itself, and we've developed treatments to overcome those barriers through these clinical trials," Borazanci said.

Zeblisky, who works for the Maricopa County Courts system, said he hopes to be well enough to return to work in January.

Doctors at the Virginia G. Piper Cancer Center said their clinical trials are open to a wide range of patients. They can be contacted at: [email protected].

__________________________________________________ ___________
+ (This press release from HALO some time ago)
__________________________________________________ ___________

Halozyme Initiates Randomized Phase 2 Trial of PEGPH20 in Pancreatic Cancer

SAN DIEGO, April 23, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: HALO) today announced the initiation of a Phase 2 multicenter, randomized clinical trial evaluating PEGPH20, a proprietary, investigational drug, as a first-line therapy for patients with stage IV metastatic pancreatic cancer. Approximately 124 patients will participate in the study and receive gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel either with or without PEGPH20. The primary outcome will be to measure progression-free survival between patients administered PEGPH20 to those who are not.

"Pancreatic cancer is an extremely difficult disease to treat, in part because of a hyaluronan-rich matrix which shields these tumors against chemotherapy," said Daniel D. Von Hoff, M.D., F.A.C.P.,] lead principal investigator of the study and Chief Scientific Officer for Scottsdale Healthcare's Virginia G. Piper Cancer Center Clinical Trials and Physician-In-Chief for the Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen). "Ongoing translational studies indicate that PEGPH20 may deplete this matrix component from pancreatic tumors and alter the tumor environment in a way that renders these cancers more vulnerable to therapy."

What do ya'll think?

T

[app_Developer]

I guess I was surprised that the company is guiding for yet further revenue contraction in Q4. Based on the discussion in this thread I believe most expected revenues would be higher, not lower, especially considering:

1.Q3 revenue was a big miss, making it an easy comparable to beat in Q4.
2.Chen mentioned that the majority of Passport sales in Q3 will actually be recognized in Q4. His exact quote:
�I also want to remind everybody that our revenue of these devices are all recognized on a sell-through basis. So not every one of those units, in fact most of those units revenue are not recognized in Q3. And we obviously will recognize as they lead [ph] up in throughout the next few quarters.�
3.Recognition of Classic sales in Q4.

So you have a lower comp, and the majority of your �strong selling� high ASP device revenue being recognized in the coming quarter�yet the company still predicts lower revenue.

And despite all of this, the stock rallies. Shorts must hate that outcome. But as a long, I think it also diminishes the possibility of a significant rally as I mentioned above.

Does this quarter even matter, though?

The real question is whether they are able to grow in FY2016.

The handset sales are too small to matter right now. What matters is whether BES12 takes off, becomes a major standard in the corporate world, and then does that become the platform for new growth. All that will take time.

I actually think revenues for 4Q15 will be so low that they will post a significant loss and maybe even cash negative. But to me that just means their old business model is still failing. We know that already. The question is will the new model work in FY16.

So hopefully BES12 sticks and people start paying real money for it next year. I have very little faith in the IoT stuff until they actually ship something IoT related. So far it's just been a lot of talk, which we know amounts to nothing with this company until they actually make and ship something. The car stuff is cool, but again that makes so little money for them that it's just a sideshow compared to what they need to see from BES12.


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Munx]

App-dev,

Agreed. I guess I was just thinking about near term pricing and realizing that this story will indeed take a while to play out.

Plasmid,

Service revenue declined to $363M, representing a 13% decrease versus the previous quarter. The company is predicting a further 15% decline in Q4, which would bring service revenue to approximately $309M. The $54M in lost service revenue represents the 'hole' that Chen is trying to fill. In the short term, many on this board (myself included), were expecting hardware revenue to supplant this shortfall. Nope. Not even close. For example, assume device unit sales stayed constant from Q3 to Q4 on a like-to-like basis, then the $54M in lower service revenue could be overcome by an incremental 100,000 Passport units. Given the company's forecast, and based on the data we have, I think the only conclusion one can make is that Passport sales are very light.

[Soumaila Somtore]

Here is the quote

OT. Hi M+8, bought some OMER shares last year, the share is looking very good know, do you think the share still has room to go up or should I exit now (I already took some profit). THANK you as always for your insight.

[theRock1975]

App-dev,

Agreed. I guess I was just thinking about near term pricing and realizing that this story will indeed take a while to play out.

Plasmid,

Service revenue declined to $363M, representing a 13% decrease versus the previous quarter. The company is predicting a further 15% decline in Q4, which would bring service revenue to approximately $309M. The $54M in lost service revenue represents the 'hole' that Chen is trying to fill. In the short term, many on this board (myself included), were expecting hardware revenue to supplant this shortfall. Nope. Not even close. For example, assume device unit sales stayed constant from Q3 to Q4 on a like-to-like basis, then the $54M in lower service revenue could be overcome by an incremental 100,000 Passport units. Given the company's forecast, and based on the data we have, I think the only conclusion one can make is that Passport sales are very light.

Could the drop in service revenue come from EZPass program? For instance, it was said that about 30% of customers came from the competition. The rest must be from Legacy BES upgrades. Did those upgraded legacy devices create a temporary drop in revenue? Perhaps this is why Chen decided to end the program early. These customers should start paying again sometime before the end of Q4.

Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

App-dev,

Agreed. I guess I was just thinking about near term pricing and realizing that this story will indeed take a while to play out.

Plasmid,

Service revenue declined to $363M, representing a 13% decrease versus the previous quarter. The company is predicting a further 15% decline in Q4, which would bring service revenue to approximately $309M. The $54M in lost service revenue represents the 'hole' that Chen is trying to fill. In the short term, many on this board (myself included), were expecting hardware revenue to supplant this shortfall. Nope. Not even close. For example, assume device unit sales stayed constant from Q3 to Q4 on a like-to-like basis, then the $54M in lower service revenue could be overcome by an incremental 100,000 Passport units. Given the company's forecast, and based on the data we have, I think the only conclusion one can make is that Passport sales are very light.

I see, so what you wanted was to inform us that you believe that the Passport is not selling well. But I still don't understand why you think that's important. Chen said that Passport sold better than expected, so that shouldn't have a negative effect on the turn around plan, does it? Or am misunderstanding your concerns?


Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Maybe I'm just paranoid but I don't want someone stealing my veh, looking at insurance / registration and getting my address then taking my veh to my house, using it to unlock my house and empty it too.

Maybe voice verified or retina scan or something? Either way, I'm not going to trust any new home security until it's ability to resist hacking is verified.

Posted via CB10

Well my thoughts are our vehicles have software right now that can be manipulated if somebody capable wanted to. They can already get all that information you mentioned, unless one is driving a pre-software vehicle. I already have home security software and entertainment, so plugging my Mercedes into that just makes since to me. You could do all updates, maps, media, etc.. right from home using a combined software.

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

The passport isn't doing so well. It's been a couple of months and the Blackberry black passport only sits in ninth spot, also the red version is only in 53 spot in Amazon top selling unlocked phones. The classic would be number one if BlackBerry kept up the supply chain management better. But then again BlackBerry needs enough to supply everyone. Out of stock again at Amazon site.

Posted via CB10

[BanffMoose]

Could the drop in service revenue come from EZPass program? For instance, it was said that about 30% of customers came from the competition. The rest must be from Legacy BES upgrades. Did those upgraded legacy devices create a temporary drop in revenue? Perhaps this is why Chen decided to end the program early. These customers should start paying again sometime before the end of Q4.

This is going from memory, so hopefully I'm correct in what I'm about to say. Sorry that this is long.

All the legacy BBOS phones required a BES or BIS plan from a phone carrier. That's the monthly Service Access Fee (SAF) that's disappearing. If a user/company abandoned BBOS devices, the SAF disappeared. Safe to say, a lot left. SAF also dropped because BB10 introduced MS ActiveSync support and BIS/BES carrier plans were no longer required for BB10 phones.

Smaller customers that adopted BB10 devices dropped legacy BES servers (because they didn't work with BB10 devices). They wouldn't have to deploy BES10 unless they wanted to really manage the device fleet. Many small customers could rely on the limited MDM services offered by MS Exchange or IBM Domino (self registration, remote device wipes, limited password restrictions, etc). This meant not only did BlackBerry lose the SAF, they also lost legacy BES-related Client Access Licenses (CALs) and tech support fees on these customers.

Most customers needing MDM/EMM support for BB10 devices can stick with the basic BES10 perpetual license under the 2013 EZPass program since that license included BlackBerry Balance. They wouldn't need to upgrade their free BES10 perpetual CAL for BES12 unless they needed tech support, which could be obtained on a per incident basis or via a paid support plan. (This was similar to how the legacy BES were licensed by the way.) Therefore, these customers may bring in little income, much less recurring income, to BlackBerry. Hopefully the Sony hack convinces all such customers that sticking with old tech products "isn't good"(TM) and convinces them to upgrade to BES12.

So who's left for BlackBerry to get recurring fees from? Only companies that need enhanced support (secure workspace container) for iOS/Android or those in regulated industries that need advanced BES management features. During the 2013 and 2014 EZPass programs, these were the only customers paying service/tech support fees during the EZPass trade in period. This is why under Chen, Blackberry started to focus on "regulated industries." They're virtually the only ones left to pay anything.

The regulated industries aren't enough to replace the SAF, which used to include all BB users. Under BES10's revenue model, BlackBerry could potentially get no recurring revenue from BB10 devices. Chen fixed that problem by making BES12 licenses subscription based. If BES12 gains traction, BlackBerry gets recurring revenue starting January 2015 (for CAL/tech support service that starts February 2015).

The other place to get recurring revenue is monetizing BBM and offering other services. Stickers will bring in some BBM revenue from ordinary consumers. BBM Protected, BlackBerry Identity Services, Enterprise BlackBerry Blend, WorkLife (Movirtu) are all subscription based services outside of BES that can bring more per user revenues than the old SAF did (assuming multiple services are subscribed to). BBM Meetings is also outside of BES, but it's also outside of BlackBerry as BBM Meetings is licensed from Zoom. So BlackBerry has to share BBM Meetings revenue.

Chen's alluded to BES12 being able to manage "anything" (my paraphrase here). If so, hopefully all cars using QNX's Car2 platform become "BlackBerries with wheels," with BES-type subscription fees that last the life of the car. There've been stories of automakers offering OTA software updates for newer cars in the near future, or even a Blend-like interface for car owners. Hopefully BES12 or something-else-BlackBerry is what's behind such offerings, and brings in recurring revenues.

[robot_ca]

That's quite the memory you have! Interesting summary.

Sent from my awesome Z30

[Munx]

I see, so what you wanted was to inform us that you believe that the Passport is not selling well. But I still don't understand why you think that's important. Chen said that Passport sold better than expected, so that shouldn't have a negative effect on the turn around plan, does it? Or am misunderstanding your concerns?


Posted via CB10

You don't understand why Passport sales are important? Clearly a rhetorical question given the pages and pages of discussion and conjecture on the topic.

Chen said the Passport sold better than expected - yet revenue is still contracting faster than the street projected. When you look at all the data points it becomes evident that Passport sales are lower than most people were calling for (especially thread participants). This is important in the near term because the short narrative remains intact and will keep a lid on the share price. In the long term it may be less relevant.

Looks like a solid quarter to take some call premium. Gl.

Posted via CB10