View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    BB10 To Ensure Continued Blackberry Dominance In Many Markets - Seeking Alpha

    In depth view on how the US market is not the end all be all

    And I just realized the article is a year old..
    Last edited by Kid Vibe; 03-06-13 at 02:11 AM.
    03-06-13 02:00 AM
  2. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    BB10 To Ensure Continued Blackberry Dominance In Many Markets - Seeking Alpha

    In depth view on how the US market is not the end all be all

    And I just realized the article is a year old..


    Still true though
    03-06-13 03:30 AM
  3. snejpa's Avatar
    Actually...The German government plans to buy as many as 40,000 BlackBerry 10 devices that will be enhanced with security applications from SecuSmart to meet NATO standards.

    PLANS TO BUY vs SOLD is a BIG DIFFERENCE...Remember that things can change in those kinds of contracts...
    Actually I would love to hear some confirmation about this. Can't find any other article with this number, so I assume it's still just 5000. Anyway its good for bbry's prestige in Germany.
    03-06-13 05:41 AM
  4. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Ok...my estimated sales for February was 1.5 million. Based on the article below, I may not be too far off.

    BlackBerry Sales May Be Better Than Expected - Seeking Alpha
    DragonFlyer likes this.
    03-06-13 07:01 AM
  5. tmurphx5's Avatar
    Another look into the inventory build up that was highlighted yesterday....

    High Inventory - Good Sign For BlackBerry - Seeking Alpha
    03-06-13 07:09 AM
  6. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    I have decided that at this stage I am no longer looking at the share price. I did my own analysis initially and I came up with some figures that lead me to believe that my investment in BBRY is long and strong. However, I have recently watched this stock more than any other, almost obsessively, and for that reason I almost fell into the fog of analyst bullshot.

    So, I am confident in what analysis I originally undertook this past fall and looking forward to a solid recovery for BBRY. Things have really gone the way I had expected, right to the dipping below $13 and perhaps headed below $12 but I started to again get tangled up in the noise and doubt my own analysis. Lesson learned for me is to believe in my own fundamentals, focus on the broader brush strokes, and don't ever get caught up in micro analyses.

    Here's to steering straight into the storm with a solid compass my friends. All the best, and if you find the seas too rough some days, then tie onto the deck so you don't fall over.
    03-06-13 07:33 AM
  7. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Furthermore, I will go on record today stating that my forecasted combined sales of both the z10 and Q10 for the next four quarters will be 18-20 million.
    StormieTwo and fedakd like this.
    03-06-13 07:38 AM
  8. Markymark 23's Avatar
    Furthermore, I will go on record today stating that my forecasted combined sales of both the z10 and Q10 for the next four quarters will be 18-20 million.
    Ditto...and ditto.
    03-06-13 07:42 AM
  9. Markymark 23's Avatar
    Actually I would love to hear some confirmation about this. Can't find any other article with this number, so I assume it's still just 5000. Anyway its good for bbry's prestige in Germany.
    And furthermore...keep in mind that Germany may not be the only EU country to take this plunge. They are amongst the most influential, if not THE most influential, of the EU members. Others may follow their lead in the interests of maintaining ultra-secure communications amongst them all. Just a thought.
    03-06-13 07:48 AM
  10. AlexejKir's Avatar
    Z10 - on March 11th via T-Mobile USA for business, March 27th for consumers
    - on March 15th via AT&T

    edit: up in pre-market usually means we are down for the day.. Id rather started flat than with a gap..

    edit2: Frankfurt just went to green, good signal
    Last edited by AlexejKir; 03-06-13 at 08:31 AM.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-06-13 08:09 AM
  11. _dimi_'s Avatar
    In a business update provided by Thorsten Heins on 29 May '12, he states:

    The CORE (cost optimization and resource efficiency) program we told you about previously is focused on delivering key operational savings through various initiatives. The financial objectives for the CORE program are targeted to drive $1 billion in savings by the end of fiscal 2013, based on our Q4 run rate.

    Source: http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...ess_Update.pdf
    (page 2)

    Then, when I look in their Q4 statement (fiscal 2012) I see operating expenses of $1,543 Mio; up from $1,082 Mio in Q3 mostly due to 355 Mio USD 'impairment of goodwill'.

    Source: http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...ss_release.pdf
    (page 7)

    I then thought of Tavis McCourt at Raymond James whose model projected BlackBerry would need to sell approx. 18 Mio smartphones running on BB10 to break-even. Anything above that would result in a net profit, anything below that in a net loss for BlackBerry.

    Source: RIMM: Target 18M BB10 Units for Profit in FY14, Says Raymond James - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    What has kept me wondering now is:

    Tavis McCourt projects operating costs of $4,050 Mio which does not match with the information provided by Thorsten:

    (Q4 operating cost * 4 quarters) - $1,000 Mio = ($1,543 Mio * 4) - $1,000 Mio = $5,172 Mio

    This is a huge difference. I remember one particular article on SeekingAlpha in which the author suggested the operating cost could have an enormous impact. Until now I always thought this would be more to the upside than...

    Anyway, what did Thorsten mean with 'run rate'? Have I misinterpreted it? English is not my first language..

    Update: the impairment of goodwill seems to be a restructuring cost. Would it then make sense to leave out this charge in the Q4 figure of my projection?
    Last edited by _dimi_; 03-06-13 at 08:59 AM.
    03-06-13 08:49 AM
  12. knrd's Avatar
    In a business update provided by Thorsten Heins on 29 May '12, he states:

    The CORE (cost optimization and resource efficiency) program we told you about previously is focused on delivering key operational savings through various initiatives. The financial objectives for the CORE program are targeted to drive $1 billion in savings by the end of fiscal 2013, based on our Q4 run rate.

    Source: http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...ess_Update.pdf
    (page 2)

    Then, when I look in their Q4 statement (fiscal 2012) I see operating expenses of $1,543 Mio; up from $1,082 Mio in Q3 mostly due to 355 Mio USD 'impairment of goodwill'.

    Source: http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...ss_release.pdf
    (page 7)

    I then thought of Tavis McCourt at Raymond James whose model projected BlackBerry would need to sell approx. 18 Mio smartphones running on BB10 to break-even. Anything above that would result in a net profit, anything below that in a net loss for BlackBerry.

    Source: RIMM: Target 18M BB10 Units for Profit in FY14, Says Raymond James - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    What has kept me wondering now is:

    Tavis McCourt projects operating costs of $4,050 Mio which does not match with the information provided by Thorsten:

    (Q4 operating cost * 4 quarters) - $1,000 Mio = ($1,543 Mio * 4) - $1,000 Mio = $5,172 Mio

    This is a huge difference. I remember one particular article on SeekingAlpha in which the author suggested the operating cost could have an enormous impact. Until now I always thought this would be more to the upside than...

    Anyway, what did Thorsten mean with 'run rate'? Have I misinterpreted it? English is not my first language..
    Goodwill is meaningless for the most part, especially any "Expenses" resulting from it. In this case I think they just wrote down some of their investment, so it's not actually anything that cost them other than on paper. They literally just changed some numbers.

    Also, this is unlikely to happen every quarter so you shouldn't use that number as your baseline.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy and _dimi_ like this.
    03-06-13 09:00 AM
  13. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Thanks. Operating costs should be around $4,000 Mio then
    03-06-13 09:10 AM
  14. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    BlackBerry Z10 U.K. Pricing Remains At A Premium, Despite Misleading Analyst Report - Seeking Alpha

    Enjoy the read and remain confident that this much negative attention is being driven by competitors, which can only mean BBRY is a success.
    03-06-13 09:11 AM
  15. bungaboy's Avatar
    BlackBerry Z10 U.K. Pricing Remains At A Premium, Despite Misleading Analyst Report - Seeking Alpha

    Enjoy the read and remain confident that this much negative attention is being driven by competitors, which can only mean BBRY is a success.
    It is nice to read what we know is reality, amid all the misinformation, manipulation and outright lying.
    03-06-13 09:33 AM
  16. Bugmapper's Avatar
    BlackBerry Z10 U.K. Pricing Remains At A Premium, Despite Misleading Analyst Report - Seeking Alpha

    Enjoy the read and remain confident that this much negative attention is being driven by competitors, which can only mean BBRY is a success.
    Loved his last line... "Additional disclosure: I am Short Wall Street Analysts"
    primusd, bungaboy and zyben like this.
    03-06-13 09:37 AM
  17. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Finally some volume!!!
    03-06-13 09:50 AM
  18. morganplus8's Avatar
    Just a quick chart so that everyone can stare at the line in the sand here:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-march-6-2013-chart.jpg

    We have to hold the recent lows here at $ 12.56/shr, so far, we have but the day isn't over. We have the usual problem of the 5-dma coming down and the 50-dma is a distance away too. Let's see if the stock can find some support in here while we wait for confirmation from BB on any of the many news bits that have be cleaverly hidden from the media. If the company can confirm the launch date and program for the Z10 in the US, that should be enough to get things rolling again. So far, things are stable in here. I pointed out a Cup & Handle formation yesterday, that came from TA driven trading, it as bullish and failed quietly due to a lack of news/interest. I see these formations happening and there is little follow through. We have the double bottom in the stock today, we tested it and held, we need to rally here and turn this strength into something positive.

    PS. I think I have to re-charge my phone today, its been 2 1/2 days since I had to charge it since the OS update came out. Man this phone is the best.
    03-06-13 09:52 AM
  19. AlexejKir's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-original_12413525.png

    Not my chart, but agree with it. Good news in short term.

    + Frankfurt back in green.
    03-06-13 09:58 AM
  20. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Loved his last line... "Additional disclosure: I am Short Wall Street Analysts"
    And almost all the positive articles are by people who are long BBRY. It is how Seeking Alpha works. I consider it more entertainment than investment advice. Our own Mike Collins a/k/a mikeycollins has written positive articles on SA and is long the stock. To his credit he acknowledged and disclosed that. His and the other authors views inform their view of the stock and their own investments and any bias they might have. Being long or short a stock doesn't make your article or opinion any more or less correct, it just let's us all know where they are coming from. The reader has to decide and decipher it all.
    peter9477, joe.miller and bungaboy like this.
    03-06-13 10:08 AM
  21. gp656's Avatar
    It is nice to read what we know is reality, amid all the misinformation, manipulation and outright lying.
    Check this out
    http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53...item4ac198e490

    Posted via CB10
    03-06-13 10:11 AM
  22. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Well...it's green and green is a welcome sign.

    Posted via CB10
    03-06-13 10:15 AM
  23. Bbnivende's Avatar
    I have to stop reading BBRY. I get tempted , then I buy, then I lose, then I sell. I am going long in Johnson & Johnson.
    03-06-13 10:16 AM
  24. AlexejKir's Avatar
    I have to stop reading BBRY. I get tempted , then I buy, then I lose, then I sell. I am going long in Johnson & Johnson.
    Friend of mine who's been investing for some time said, no matter what your losses are, time is your friend. Instead of selling in red, leave it, and time will get you back in green.
    03-06-13 10:20 AM
  25. lcjr's Avatar
    Yep, I've seen these before on eBay. Not that high though so that is really incredible. I'm just not sure how real that is. I mean, who would pay that price unless it's a tax write-off or business expense?
    03-06-13 10:21 AM
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