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OT Alert!
Well I managed to stay out of ECA although I've been lurking to purchase a nice block of it! Friday's action sent this down to an RSI of ~28 with a stock price of $15.78. Do you think if the issues with oil continue that ECA would ever be forced to cut their dividends? Would that possibly force the big names to liquidate sending this down to the $10-12 level? I still like the play, just wondering if the storm is over.
Anyways, I have one other biotech I have been stalking since FDA approal. MNKD I like theirpartnership with Sanofi, and their incoming milestone payments will pad their balance sheet nicely. Their main product, Afrezza, is an inhalable insulin. Now, although Afrezza seems like a good product, I believe the true dark horse here is MNKD's Technosphere. It can be reformulated with many drug formulations that are now off patent. They are working on trials right now with the cricket device using a Technosphere formulation that will give chronic pain relief / headache (think Advil / Ibuprofen) in less than 5 minutes instead of the regular 30 minute onset. In my opinion, that is HUGE! and that is a $40+ billion dollar market! My question is what do you think about the prospects of MNKD's pipeline? Personally I think they are involved in the Medtronic / Coviden deal in some way. However, before anything happens I believe their deal must be finalized (February 2015).
PSDV has been coming along nicely. It should be a great 2015 with this one!
Haven't been around much lately guys. Work and the CFA program have been running my life
Cheers!
Derek11-29-14 11:52 AM - MAJOR OT ALERT !!! PSDV, ECA & MNKDOT Alert!
Well I managed to stay out of ECA although I've been lurking to purchase a nice block of it! Friday's action sent this down to an RSI of ~28 with a stock price of $15.78. Do you think if the issues with oil continue that ECA would ever be forced to cut their dividends? Would that possibly force the big names to liquidate sending this down to the $10-12 level? I still like the play, just wondering if the storm is over.
Anyways, I have one other biotech I have been stalking since FDA approal. MNKD I like theirpartnership with Sanofi, and their incoming milestone payments will pad their balance sheet nicely. Their main product, Afrezza, is an inhalable insulin. Now, although Afrezza seems like a good product, I believe the true dark horse here is MNKD's Technosphere. It can be reformulated with many drug formulations that are now off patent. They are working on trials right now with the cricket device using a Technosphere formulation that will give chronic pain relief / headache (think Advil / Ibuprofen) in less than 5 minutes instead of the regular 30 minute onset. In my opinion, that is HUGE! and that is a $40+ billion dollar market! My question is what do you think about the prospects of MNKD's pipeline? Personally I think they are involved in the Medtronic / Coviden deal in some way. However, before anything happens I believe their deal must be finalized (February 2015).
PSDV has been coming along nicely. It should be a great 2015 with this one!
Haven't been around much lately guys. Work and the CFA program have been running my life
Cheers!
Derek
Hi fedakd (Derek) !!
First off, glad to hear you are going full force with the CFA designation!! That is a challenging title so good for you!
I can say that this latest drop in energy is unprecedented, 10.24 % (crude oil) drop in one day is huge and not likely over. ECA has already cut their dividend and as far as I can see, they have the cash to weather this bear market. With us achieving RSI<30 so quickly, I would apply the next rule in trading, and that is to, " ignore the stock for three trading sessions". And so I would have my first look at ECA on Tuesday at the earliest as there will be further pressure on energy stocks in general. I really like ECA, it has a nice balance of gas and liquids now and plenty of cash having sold assets at just the right time. I should say, that just because I like a company doesn't mean I'm looking for a 100% gain in it over the next 12 months. I like it because it will have limited downside, it has a strong balance sheet and good products and it has a massive return in call option writing which generates income for me. Because of the dynamic nature of these events though, I would watch the oversold indicators, and, wait until we see volumes drop back to more normal levels in the commodity as well as the stocks. At $ 66.00/barrel, too many companies will be hurt at these sustained levels to be able to continue to produce so let nature and efficient markets balance out here and jump in.
PSDV - is finally beginning to show some strength, no surprise there, it is a $ 8.00/shr stock in 2015 and a going concern now. This is one of my top five stocks for 2015 .... so glad you are involved in that one.
MNKD - is a two part play, it has a Sanofi deal that tops at $ 775 MM bucks and $ 400 million will be needed to finance the infrastructure for the product launch and build. If that's the case, they need additional financing for that product alone so expect more shares to hit the market on the next leg up. In addition, I see the promise you hold in their non-prescription based "other uses" for their delivery system. I can see that play out in the years ahead as well. It is a $ 6.00/shr stock that is worth $ 12.00/shr on the path to their Afrezza launch. The ramp rate for the product, hence the revenues which provide cash-flow is over a year away. Additional uses are that far off too so my personal conclusion is that they are acquired in the meantime. It makes no sense for Sanofi to follow contract guidelines to launch, I suspect they would be far better off owning MNKD in the next 12 months. In that light, I see a buyout in the $ 12 - $ 15 area. All of these ideas are based upon quarterly reports, I have no inside information that lets me run Sanofi's cost/marketing/end sales expectations for Afrezza, they may see it differently, its just my take on the situation alone.
Many investors think MNKD is the poster boy for how small cap stocks should behave, the fact is, this play was $ 2.5 B in the making and a ton of risk, today they are achieving the dream of many small caps and that is to launch their first major, worldwide product with the help of big pharma. That was not an over-night success!
I could say so much more about these companies but this is the BlackBerry thread so I'll end here with good luck with your investments and do come back to the board more often.11-30-14 12:32 PM - Had a dinner @home with 8 friends yesterday. HFT guru, insurance and jewelry.
I was off anything BlackBerry ... but when my passport went on the table to stream my playlist, 4 of them (2 guys, 2 gals) instantly said hollyShat what's that ? With bright eyes and all the wow you can expect.
On the 4 spontaneous returns were:
- "So they're not dead, really ?"
- "Square ? that's cool : screen is gorgeous !"
- "I want a physical keyboard back"
- "Pitty, they're out of stock"
...
One of them even took a photo with his iPhone; "I have to show that to the guys at the office on Monday !"
And then we visited several part of France through wines, even a Brazilian short trip with cachasa & mango sorbet ... I had to hide it, "too drunk to sell" lol ... but they didn't need me anymore (ok, I had a little talk about Blend : they died) ... count 4 new/returning customers soon
11-30-14 01:52 PM
The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
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