View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. slipstream89's Avatar
    I actually did that on saturday, so far no reply

    What you should do imho, is e-mail BlackBerry investor relations and confirm whether it's still happening or not.
    Mr BBRY, bungaboy and georg4BB like this.
    11-18-14 06:35 PM
  2. rarsen's Avatar
    11-18-14 06:48 PM
  3. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    11-18-14 07:14 PM
  4. W Hoa's Avatar
    It's strange that no analysts commented on this... the short sellers just ignoring this... next quarter results will hopefully exceed expectations on all accounts..
    As someone who takes the long position I agree with you but until we see some eps numbers nothing will change.

    I think the tendency for various traders/analysts etc is to weigh the services revenue decline more heavily than the licensing fee reduction. As shorts it is in their interest to do so. Shorts will argue that having a cost reduction is not as important as having a revenue increase. And on that score I would have to agree with them.
    Shanerredflag, Corbu and CDM76 like this.
    11-18-14 08:46 PM
  5. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    yes i agree ... up to CEO Chen to bring the top line up .. and bottom line also ...
    11-18-14 08:55 PM
  6. sidhuk's Avatar
    11-18-14 11:43 PM
  7. kadakn01's Avatar
    from Merrill on BBRY as of November 17
    Price Objective US$6.00
    Date Established 23-Sep-2013
    Analyst: Tal Liani

    Focus shifts to software, but
    core business still at risk

    Blackberry builds out its enterprise software portfolio
    Blackberry’s management hosted an analyst day last week, reaffirming its near-term
    goals and releasing a suite of new software products. The financial targets set last
    year are still in place and management mainly focused on technology and
    distribution, particularly for its new software portfolio. For enterprise mobility
    management (EMM), BES12 is now available, supporting BB platforms but also
    iOS, and Android products (both corporate-issued and BYOD). Management also
    unveiled new value-added software products which fall into two buckets: Identity
    and Access (VPN authentication, Enterprise Identity, WorkLife), and Collaboration
    (BBM Meetings, BBM protected, Blend). These releases are targeted at offsetting
    the expected declines in service access fee (SAF) revenues.
    New partnerships and channel development
    The company also announced new partnerships with Samsung and Salesforce.
    Management views the partnership with Samsung as a testimonial to its crossplatform
    commitment, and the combination of Samsung’s Knox and BES12 aims to
    provide the most secure end-to-end Android solution, per company. The relationship
    is not exclusive and Samsung announced a similar relationship with AirWatch. With
    Salesforce, Blackberry hopes to leverage each other’s regulated government and
    enterprise customer bases, while building out a more robust BES12 ecosystem.
    Management estimates there are 670mn business-use smartphones worldwide, yet
    Blackberry only serves 6% of this market. To address this, management is
    realigning sales with 40% direct channels and 60% through partner channels.
    Still need to execute in an increasingly competitive space
    Blackberry’s new products are encouraging, with BES12, BBM Meetings (WebEx
    competitor), and WorkLife (dual-sim) looking promising on paper. However, the stakes
    are high given the need to offset some of the $800mn expected decline in service
    revenues over the next year. With a weak hardware segment and ecosystem, as well as
    strong momentum of competitive offerings, we maintain our Underperform rating and $6 price target
    CDM76, jxnb, rarsen and 3 others like this.
    11-19-14 02:11 AM
  8. lotuslanderz's Avatar
    Thanks for posting. Nice interview. Heins-sight is 20-20 :-)

    Posted via CB10
    11-19-14 02:42 AM
  9. doctor gonzo's Avatar
    "Merrill" seems to not be informed very well about the demand for the Passport and hopefully the Classic. Yes the software is the future, but the hardware sales can make it happen. I like the way this is all playing out. Next earning report may bring some very positive surprises.
    11-19-14 02:45 AM
  10. thymaster's Avatar
    John Chen couldn't said it better. Hardware will be around to offer the complete security package. BB security is baked into their hardware. Blackberry will offer software solution for Android and iOS only because they can only go so far with OS they didn't built from ground up or hardware they didn't design. I for one would continue to buy BB hardware because they offer the complete package. I don't want a partial experience on iOS or Android.

    If I have some spare change right now, I would buy Blackberry stock while it's still low. If everything is going as planned according to JC, stock prices would go up next quarter and I might miss my window of opportunity to buy Blackberry stock at a low price.
    11-19-14 03:54 AM
  11. georg4BB's Avatar
    WTF what a huge drop in premarket 4% already. Any news?
    11-19-14 05:35 AM
  12. BenjaminTheDonkey's Avatar
    WhatsApp's new end-to-end encryption spells an end for BBM? Lol

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by BenjaminTheDonkey; 11-19-14 at 06:04 AM.
    georg4BB likes this.
    11-19-14 05:50 AM
  13. Signhere's Avatar
    WTF what a huge drop in premarket 4% already. Any news?
    Morgan Stanley Downgrade
    PT $7.00

    Posted via CB10
    georg4BB likes this.
    11-19-14 06:25 AM
  14. rim4ever's Avatar
    Morgan Stanley Downgrade
    PT $7.00

    Posted via CB10
    Translation: Big boys want your shares for cheap.
    sidhuk, Mr BBRY, georg4BB and 6 others like this.
    11-19-14 07:13 AM
  15. Mr BBRY's Avatar
    Shares are down -3.7% premarket on the news that Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette cut the stock to underweight from equalweight. Price target is $7, same as the previous base case. The note said:

    - Market is too optimisitic on BBRY, doesn't think they'll meet target of $350m in new software revenue in FY16
    - Doesn't see them hitting 10m device units in FY16, which would be needed for operating margin breakeven

    So, that leaves the stock with:
    - 1 buy
    - 23 holds
    - 12 sells
    - average price target = $9.71
    Well, many of you were looking for an entry point. My humble opinion, this is it!

    I don't see many more opportunities to weight this SP down with opinions and negative outlooks before we start to see hard fundamental improvements in bottom and top lines. What will the BBRY bears come up with when we start to see profits? I wouldn't put it past them to figure something out. In the meantime, thanks to Mr. Faucette for yet another buying opportunity!

    Posted via BlackBerry Passport
    11-19-14 08:05 AM
  16. masterful's Avatar
    The faucette guy has no credibility. Pure manipulation.

    Mr BBRY, bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    11-19-14 08:23 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    Has this been posted yet?

    Don't think so...

    James Faucette,
    November, 19, 2014

    Market, and Management, Likely Too Optimistic on New Product Ramps; Downgrading to Underweight

    We believe that the market has swung too optimistic, assuming the company will meet its target of $350M in new software revenue in FY16. We think the competitive market and organizational hurdles will likely keep BBRY’s results well below its plan.

    Street expectations seem excessive. We believe that the market has largely valued the company based on the assumption that BlackBerry will generate an incremental $250mm in software revenue and an incremental $100mm in messaging revenue during FY16, consistent with the targets set out by BBRY CEO John Chen (from roughly $0 today). We estimate this implies that BBRY will not only successfully retain roughly its entire existing enterprise subscriber base—plus more—it will also convince that subscriber base to increase ~3x how much it is paying BBRY today.

    Hitting targets relies too much on new devices and margins. Part of BBRY’s plan to get to EPS and cash flow breakeven results during FY16 is through improving profitability of handset products substantially. We estimate that the company has been selling handsets at around breakeven (or even negative GM). While we expect that BBRY may be able to increase its GM on new handsets to the mid-20’s range, we do not expect that BBRY will hit its needed level of 10M units in FY16 to get to OM breakeven.

    Adjusting estimates. Post-analyst day we have made adjustments to our model. We have increased device as well as messaging revenue and lowered service revenue. Overall, while our revenue forecasts have increased slightly due to larger increases to device revenue than decreases in service revenue, our EPS estimates have decreased as a result of more revenue coming from lower margin devices vs. higher margin service. Our FY15 estimates are now $3,797mm / ($0.21) from $3,787mm / ($0.18), and our FY16 estimates are now $3,264mm / ($0.17) from $3,124mm / $0.09.

    Downgrading to UW and setting $7 PT (previous base case). When we initially set our EW rating in June 2014, we felt the market was too pessimistic on the ability of the company to stem the cash burn and EPS losses. However, we now believe that the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction, and that the market is now too willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt that BBRY will successfully be able to sell its new software and messaging offerings. Our PT is approximately 1.5x TBV at the end of FY16e, and represents ~5x EV/FY16e software and messaging revenue (typical for other high growth software names). Current market valuations imply ~7x EV/16e software and messaging revenue, which we view as excessive to comparables.
    Last edited by Corbu; 11-19-14 at 09:00 AM.
    rarsen, bungaboy, jxnb and 5 others like this.
    11-19-14 08:32 AM
  18. georg4BB's Avatar
    From Faucette, Morgan S.:

    "[BlackBerry] will be unable to gain relevancy in enterprise mobile management software market and will continue to lose enterprise subscribers," said analysts at Morgan Stanley. "Pressure will continue to mount on hardware platforms in the form of both lower pricing and lengthening life cycles, with value creation opportunities primarily in software."

    Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates BLACKBERRY LTD as a Sell with a ratings score of D. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

    "We rate BLACKBERRY LTD (BBRY) a SELL. This is driven by a few notable weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. Among the areas we feel are negative, one of the most important has been an overall disappointing return on equity."
    Source: one-reason-blackberry-bbry-stock-is-down-today

    And the first commentor says what I think about it too:
    The sentence " unable to gain relevancy in enterprise mobile management software market and will continue to lose enterprise subscribers.." says it all: Morgan Stanley has no clue what they are talking about. How can Blackberry gain something it already has? Since it has three times more customers than its biggest competitors the relevance is already there. I am so fed up with Wall Street Clowns.
    jxnb, rarsen, bbjdog and 7 others like this.
    11-19-14 08:37 AM
  19. La Emperor's Avatar
    Intertesting enough, Morgan Stanley is the lead underwiter of the recently IPO'd Mobil Iron which we all know is a direct competitor of BBRY.
    Joining MS in the foray was Deutsche Bank who gave BBRY a hold not too long ago.

    You wonder what would happen to MOBL if BBRY was given a glowing review.

    MobileIron, Inc. Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering (NASDAQ:MOBL)
    jxnb, Mr BBRY, Corbu and 19 others like this.
    11-19-14 08:42 AM
  20. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    Intertesting enough, Morgan Stanley is the lead underwiter of the recently IPO'd Mobil Iron which we all know is a direct competitor of BBRY.
    Joining MS in the foray was Deutsche Bank who gave BBRY a hold not too long ago.

    You wonder what would happen to MOBL if BBRY was given a glowing review.

    MobileIron, Inc. Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering (NASDAQ:MOBL)
    Yes, and they may have also run the Good IPO by now if BlackBerry wasn't making it so difficult...

    Posted via CB10
    11-19-14 08:53 AM
  21. woofster's Avatar
    For those who aren't familiar with Morgan Stanley's involvement with MobileIron:

    MobileIron prices IPO at $9.00, within the range -
    bungaboy, rarsen, jxnb and 5 others like this.
    11-19-14 09:20 AM
  22. bbjdog's Avatar
    What can we expect from someone who upgrade and downgrade only for the purpose of manipulation. I found this little quote from him in 2012.

    We believe BB10 is likely to be DOA, James Faucette, a Pacific Crest analyst in Portland, Oregon, said in a report. He has the equivalent of a sell rating on the shares. We expect the new OS to be met with a lukewarm response at best and ultimately likely to fail.

    So, can everybody say out loud SHORT analyst!

    Here is the old article. Dont even click it, its a waste of time!

    BlackBerry 10 Phones Will Be ?DOA,? Analyst Says - Bloomberg
    11-19-14 09:24 AM
  23. jsmall999's Avatar
    Are you going to say he was wrong about the BB10 launch in light of the Z10 inventory write down?

    I love bb10, currently on my 3rd phone (z10,z30,passpoet) but heinz wasn't kicked to the curb and replaced by john Chen due to the success of the bb10 launch

    Posted via CB10
    gg22 likes this.
    11-19-14 09:38 AM
  24. woofster's Avatar
    BBRY just broke below the $10.14 support level. The key is to see where it will go from here. If it drops further below, I'd honestly just walk away from the charts today and come back next week. If it bounces back, then that tells me the Morgan Stanley downgrade resulted in an overreaction on the part of traders and that BBRY will re-stabilize somewhere in the mid-$10s. As always, I'd like to see $11 but I wouldn't buy a call betting on that to happen this week!
    Last edited by woofster; 11-19-14 at 09:46 AM. Reason: clarifications
    bbjdog and sidhuk like this.
    11-19-14 09:44 AM
  25. georg4BB's Avatar
    Seems, right now the SP is volatile like hell because everbody can write what he/she wants and the SP reacts like crazy.
    Without any numbers this will continue for sure.

    So we have to wait for real numbers in the coming quarters to go back to normal.
    bbjdog, bungaboy, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    11-19-14 09:47 AM
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