View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. morlock_man's Avatar
    It's going to be a busy day.
    02-25-13 08:36 AM
  2. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Is that me or pre-market volume is pretty big (while stock pretty stable +3.x %) ?
    Before buying BBRY I used to be happy with 8% increase per year. This is the first stock I have had that swings this much per day. Anyone seen a stock like this before?
    In my naive opinion BBRY could be an opportunity of a lifetime.
    fedakd likes this.
    02-25-13 08:36 AM
  3. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Wild swings are signs of confusion in the market. This will end once we have a few post BB10 launch earnings reports to decide upon the health of the company. In the big picture we could see the share price double in the next 12 months (or go down to single digits). I can't see much more than that happening.
    s0be and plasmid_boy like this.
    02-25-13 08:43 AM
  4. morlock_man's Avatar
    You've got to understand... this is all out



    The winner of this battle owns the platform of the future.

    It really is the biggest mindshare war ever fought in the history of the world.
    02-25-13 08:54 AM
  5. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Wild swings are signs of confusion in the market. This will end once we have a few post BB10 launch earnings reports to decide upon the health of the company. In the big picture we could see the share price double in the next 12 months (or go down to single digits). I can't see much more than that happening.
    Doubling the current price would be a huge gain for me (I started buying around $6s). But I think the upside could be bigger than that (not sure about the time frame though).
    My reasons for buying were:
    1. mobility is where we are heading in the foreseeable future (10 years) and BB has the foundation and technological edge over others (not withstanding emerging techs that we don't know about yet).
    2. smart machines are coming and as above, BB has the edge.

    Uncertainties at that time:
    1. Will BB able to materialize BB10. Now we know that's done.
    2. Will consumers like BB10. Now we know that they do.
    3. Are people ready for smart machines. Not sure yet.

    So, as far as I am concerned, the top two reservations that I had are now resolved. So I am quite happy with how things are going.
    02-25-13 09:03 AM
  6. duckJAI's Avatar
    Hi Luke!

    I agree with you, BB has a very difficult logistics problem here, it's not their fault but a difficult one to ressolve. It costs them $ 250/phone to build inventory, they may have ordered 1 million phones at a $ 250 million dollar commitment. Now, we see that 1 million phones are not enough to spread over as many countries as BB has in the past month. Thus leaving many without inventory. This problem is a nice one to have but BB needs to sell as many of these phones as possible to get the $ 450/phone revenue going. It's all about cash flow and they are spending money on advertising and product while trying to understand demand for their new line of phones. Then there is the biggest problem, they need to understand demand for two phones by the middle of March. Good luck with that! If they feel that Q10 will out sell Z10 by 3 to 1, they need a $ 750 million dollar commitment for Q10 alone. So you can see, they are out selling on Z10, ordering more, and, trying to make a call on the Z10 versus the Q10 for the March launch period. Who would want that job? They are literally trying to manage well over a billion in inventory for two launches in March.

    Heins said to CNBC that he has "a challenge to his logistics staff to make enough phones for their needs". He didn't tell them he was personally responsible for demand, he did point out that they needed a plan in place and thought he had one with logistcs. We'll see in the weeks ahead.

    To ask Heins to gear up for two phones and meet demand, plus a huge advertising campaign, and do it ll with their cash on hand is quite a tall order!!! We are talking about commiting billions on these two phones alone.

    As for the stock, you are right, the chart is intact here, but it doesn't look good. I don't think we can maintain the rate of climb in the stock without some news from BB. They would have to confirm sales to some extent in order for us to rally hard from here and I'm not sure they will. As for an additional push, it can come from a partnership agreement at any moment thus all this concern is for not.
    Reading this makes me think, and I think its a GREAT point.

    BBRY only has 2B in cash...and to launch 2 flagship phones at the same time would KILL their cash and put a huge risk if the phones don't sell. If you were a company with very limited cash and no guarantee of a successful platform (yet), I would probably do the same thing and not launch both devices at the same time.

    Also, them not launching Q10 (which is BBRY's staple product because of the keyboard) they most likely chose to release it later and put the Z10 out first to get consumers to test the platform so they can push out a POLISHED BB10 device for their more popular and proven QWERTY keyboard smartphone- the Q10.

    Now to me this, this all makes perfect sense. Use the Z10 that is a brand new style of smartphone and use it as the guinea pig and use it to collect data and bugs and features that they can then implement on their more popular QWERTY keyboard platform.

    Now this goes back to the above point of releasing both devices, which would be a HUGE gamble for the company. Their business could die within 1 year if they did this, and to release the Z10 first and Q10 later also seems to be very strategic going with my point above about getting a polished platform ready and learning from the Z10.
    02-25-13 09:05 AM
  7. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Doubling the current price would be a huge gain for me (I started buying around $6s). But I think the upside could be bigger than that (not sure about the time frame though).
    I agree that the potential upside is huge, just not for a couple of years yet. These last few months have been like we've been given a chance to travel back in time 10 years and purchase shares at the price from 2002/2003, except that we have all the market, product and brand development from the last 10 years already built in!
    plasmid_boy likes this.
    02-25-13 09:18 AM
  8. Luke Barrie's Avatar
    i think the Z10 came out first because its DIFFERENT. the Q10 would blend in amongst the 9900s for sale currently, and largely skimmd over becaquse of the resulting price difference. Z10 indicates there is a new boy in town, and directly jabs at the markets of apple and samsung to steal sales and show off BB10 os.

    I hope we dont drop much lower. I just added to my position. I feel like the stream of bearish news is tapering while tidbits of bullish news are starting to shine through. At this rate, I would be surprised to see it go below $13, and truly dissapointed if it went below 12.50.

    If all goes well, BBRY might be worth $35 in a year from now
    02-25-13 09:20 AM
  9. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    Now this goes back to the above point of releasing both devices, which would be a HUGE gamble for the company. Their business could die within 1 year if they did this, and to release the Z10 first and Q10 later also seems to be very strategic going with my point above about getting a polished platform ready and learning from the Z10.
    Definitely true that a mismanaged launch would put them out of business quickly - it's a huge risk and they don't have a lot of cash with which to manage it.

    However, speaking as a developer who has been tracking updates to development tools, talking occasionally to BBRY employees at Jams and whatnot - I think the reason for the split rollout of Q10/Z10 is not quite as simple as wanting to learn from Z10. I think if they could have managed to release it at the same time, they would have.

    However, they only JUST released the keyboard-based SDKs and simulators to developers this month. They simply weren't ready (and you will notice that even though they show the Q10, they give extremely limited hands-on time with it). They put all their focus onto getting the full-touch platform up and running. While I believe they had people working QWERTY, the vast majority of resources simply weren't focused there internally until very recently. Which is why we (as developers) haven't seen the tools until this month.

    While I agree that this was planned - it was not in order to learn and polish from Z10, but simply planning around resource constraints. They were focused on getting the platform, apps, third party support for a standard HD resolution phone. It will be much more difficult to get app support for a 720x720 device, so they focused on what they could reasonably do in the time they had allotted.

    Q10 is very likely in early beta form right now - and I'd be surprised if we saw any sooner than June. This isn't a carrier testing issue - I think since the radio is the same, and the radio software is the same, there's little additional testing that needs to be done.

    Keep in mind that big name companies will need months of lead time to build and test for the new phone, and they've only had the tools for a couple of weeks now.

    But - the flip side is this: I don't think it's as important as it seems. I think the *reason* they focused first on all-touch to start with was b/c they saw this as the future of the device. Q10 will be a niche market at best. As we see even now, diehard keyboard fans are falling in love with the new virtual keyboard. Sure there will be some holdouts, but I suspect a surprising number of blackberry faithful will pass on the Q10.
    Superfly_FR and Acumenight like this.
    02-25-13 09:25 AM
  10. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Before buying BBRY I used to be happy with 8% increase per year. This is the first stock I have had that swings this much per day. Anyone seen a stock like this before?
    In my naive opinion BBRY could be an opportunity of a lifetime.
    Take a look at Netflix (NFLX), Herbalife (HLF), or Green Mountinan Roasters (GMCR), each has had a wild ride. Herbalife is embroiled in a mega pi$$ing contest between 2 very rich and arrogant men on complete opposite sides of the trade. BBRY is calm compared to it. Carl Icahn has bought a huge amount of options. Bill Ackman is short saying it is a pyramid scheme. When they hit, Ichan can almost single handedly squeeze the shorts. Not sure if he will win, but it is an epic and very interesting battle with out in the open war over the stock between 2 huge investors. Look at a 6 month chart for NFLX or GMCR. NFLX is a battle over it's future, just like BBRY. GMCR is also a battle over the future of the single serve coffee market. All interesting and big bets and HUGE price swings.
    bungaboy and plasmid_boy like this.
    02-25-13 09:27 AM
  11. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Every day it appears that the new management team's plan is working almost perfectly. It is a very complicated process and (without any actual numbers yet) it appears to be rolling out very well. I, for one, am glad they are not running around trying to placate the media too much. Just enough to keep the serious investors satisfied that they are "on the job" and working for them.
    02-25-13 09:32 AM
  12. duckJAI's Avatar
    Definitely true that a mismanaged launch would put them out of business quickly - it's a huge risk and they don't have a lot of cash with which to manage it.

    However, speaking as a developer who has been tracking updates to development tools, talking occasionally to BBRY employees at Jams and whatnot - I think the reason for the split rollout of Q10/Z10 is not quite as simple as wanting to learn from Z10. I think if they could have managed to release it at the same time, they would have.

    However, they only JUST released the keyboard-based SDKs and simulators to developers this month. They simply weren't ready (and you will notice that even though they show the Q10, they give extremely limited hands-on time with it). They put all their focus onto getting the full-touch platform up and running. While I believe they had people working QWERTY, the vast majority of resources simply weren't focused there internally until very recently. Which is why we (as developers) haven't seen the tools until this month.

    While I agree that this was planned - it was not in order to learn and polish from Z10, but simply planning around resource constraints. They were focused on getting the platform, apps, third party support for a standard HD resolution phone. It will be much more difficult to get app support for a 720x720 device, so they focused on what they could reasonably do in the time they had allotted.

    Q10 is very likely in early beta form right now - and I'd be surprised if we saw any sooner than June. This isn't a carrier testing issue - I think since the radio is the same, and the radio software is the same, there's little additional testing that needs to be done.

    Keep in mind that big name companies will need months of lead time to build and test for the new phone, and they've only had the tools for a couple of weeks now.

    But - the flip side is this: I don't think it's as important as it seems. I think the *reason* they focused first on all-touch to start with was b/c they saw this as the future of the device. Q10 will be a niche market at best. As we see even now, diehard keyboard fans are falling in love with the new virtual keyboard. Sure there will be some holdouts, but I suspect a surprising number of blackberry faithful will pass on the Q10.
    Good point, but also if app developers are developing for the Z10, for them to convert and make it compatible for the Q10 would be easier since they are learning the ways of the new OS.

    Also which raises another point that matches your, the Z10 would be much more app friendly for developers because of the retail space of the 4.2" screen. They NEED apps and probably decided the Z10 would draw in the attention from developers rather than the Q10. If the Z10 is a hit, app developers can easily (I think- I have no experience in developing apps) convert their apps for a Q10 smaller resolution but at least understand the new OS because of the Z10.
    bungaboy likes this.
    02-25-13 09:34 AM
  13. duckJAI's Avatar
    Take a look at Netflix (NFLX), Herbalife (HLF), or Green Mountinan Roasters (GMCR), each has had a wild ride. Herbalife is embroiled in a mega pi$$ing contest between 2 very rich and arrogant men on complete opposite sides of the trade. BBRY is calm compared to it. Carl Icahn has bought a huge amount of options. Bill Ackman is short saying it is a pyramid scheme. When they hit, Ichan can almost single handedly squeeze the shorts. Not sure if he will win, but it is an epic and very interesting battle with out in the open war over the stock between 2 huge investors. Look at a 6 month chart for NFLX or GMCR. NFLX is a battle over it's future, just like BBRY. GMCR is also a battle over the future of the single serve coffee market. All interesting and big bets and HUGE price swings.
    He did squeeze the shorts for the initial 2 days but as you can see the stock has fallen since his public announcement of his 10-12% current stake. Also, Ackman literally has a $1B short position on Herbalife which is HUGE. I don't think he'll go down without a fight. It will definitely be interesting.
    02-25-13 09:36 AM
  14. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    Good point, but also if app developers are developing for the Z10, for them to convert and make it compatible for the Q10 would be easier since they are learning the ways of the new OS.

    Also which raises another point that matches your, the Z10 would be much more app friendly for developers because of the retail space of the 4.2" screen. They NEED apps and probably decided the Z10 would draw in the attention from developers rather than the Q10. If the Z10 is a hit, app developers can easily (I think- I have no experience in developing apps) convert their apps for a Q10 smaller resolution but at least understand the new OS because of the Z10.
    Yes, that was part of what Iw as trying to say but didn't come across very well. Basically: pique interest with the consumer-friendly phone and all that screen real estate. Then push the tools that lets developers make the switch to supporting an additional screen resolution. The learning curve to do the latter is much less than the initial learning curve for development for a new platform - which would have already been done when the developer created apps for the Z10.
    02-25-13 09:47 AM
  15. OMGitworks's Avatar
    He did squeeze the shorts for the initial 2 days but as you can see the stock has fallen since his public announcement of his 10-12% current stake. Also, Ackman literally has a $1B short position on Herbalife which is HUGE. I don't think he'll go down without a fight. It will definitely be interesting.
    Its going to be crazy. After March 6, Icahn can exercise his 11.5M in options. There are +/- 35M short and only 105M float, so he is going to take 10% of the float away in 1 day if he does so. They are both smart guys with tons of cash. I bet on Icahn because the money is his own and Ackman has to answer to the holders of his funds, but it is the highest stake public poker I have seen in many years. Shorts usually lay low, but Ackman didn't. I wouldn't risk my $$ there either but it is fun to watch to play out. SORRY TO BE SO FAR OT.....
    02-25-13 09:54 AM
  16. joe.miller's Avatar
    it is the highest stake public poker I have seen in many years. Shorts usually lay low, but Ackman didn't. I wouldn't risk my $$ there either but it is fun to watch to play out
    Yeah, I don't really pay much attention to financial news, but this saga has been fascinating.

    One of them is going to make a ****ton of money, and the other is going to lose a ****ton. There really isn't much middle ground.
    02-25-13 10:12 AM
  17. drummer_god's Avatar
    forgive me if this has been posted elsewhere, but cnbc is reporting a delay in the US launch of the Q10 to May or June instead of April:

    US to Play Waiting Game for New Keyboard BlackBerry

    edit:
    although this was posted today, after reading the whole thing, it is clear it is either a few weeks old, or parts have been copied from an old article, as it claims the new phones were unveiled 'last week', and the stock is '$16.02'.

    wtf. is this another example of bears recycling old news to bring the stock down?
    bungaboy likes this.
    02-25-13 10:22 AM
  18. jackdunhill's Avatar
    forgive me if this has been posted elsewhere, but cnbc is reporting a delay in the US launch of the Q10 to May or June instead of April:

    US to Play Waiting Game for New Keyboard BlackBerry
    Nice so now they are bringing up stories that are 2-3 weeks old
    02-25-13 10:26 AM
  19. joe.miller's Avatar
    Nice so now they are bringing up stories that are 2-3 weeks old
    Well to be fair, they've already re-hashed all the stories from 3-6 months ago, so they can't use those anymore.

    /sarcasm
    02-25-13 10:35 AM
  20. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    So ... i believe the "whole finance planet" is very anxious about BBRY ?
    Oh, wait, let's have a look to the Nasdaq community rating ...
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png
    wowowow ... scary, uh ? :
    bungaboy and Acumenight like this.
    02-25-13 10:35 AM
  21. Tinomane's Avatar
    I think its absolute bs that some two bit firm, that lost 16 million last year, like canaccord can drop a stock 5% on a guesstimate. But, when the actual CEO makes a very bullish statement it only props the stock up 2%.
    bungaboy and jarrodmeyer like this.
    02-25-13 10:40 AM
  22. lcjr's Avatar
    Well, I understand there are people that want to keep the price low so they can buy more, but some of us are done buying and are ready for this to go up some now. Anytime now....
    bungaboy and Mr.Conviviality like this.
    02-25-13 10:40 AM
  23. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    forgive me if this has been posted elsewhere, but cnbc is reporting a delay in the US launch of the Q10 to May or June instead of April:

    US to Play Waiting Game for New Keyboard BlackBerry

    edit:
    although this was posted today, after reading the whole thing, it is clear it is either a few weeks old, or parts have been copied from an old article, as it claims the new phones were unveiled 'last week', and the stock is '$16.02'.

    wtf. is this another example of bears recycling old news to bring the stock down?
    US to Play Waiting Game for New Keyboard BlackBerry got my nerves (see comments, add yours !) lol.
    drummer_god likes this.
    02-25-13 10:46 AM
  24. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Well, I understand there are people that want to keep the price low so they can buy more, but some of us are done buying and are ready for this to go up some now. Anytime now....
    lol, don't sell too fast (IMHO), either
    02-25-13 10:48 AM
  25. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    Before buying BBRY I used to be happy with 8% increase per year. This is the first stock I have had that swings this much per day. Anyone seen a stock like this before?
    In my naive opinion BBRY could be an opportunity of a lifetime.
    It happens all the time. Google "NASDAQ (DATE) biggest movers". Some stocks make BBRY look like Microsoft. Hahahahaha...
    02-25-13 10:48 AM
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