View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Andrew4life's Avatar
    Looks like more and more of none believers are finally seeing BlackBerry products for what they really are.... fantastic! As per link, Dan Nessel, the founder of DadDoes.com and very big iPhone fan goes BlackBerry Z30 for 7days.
    http://n4bb.com/iphone-fan-impressed...rry-z30-video/

    Posted via swift BlackBerry Z30!
    Never heard of the guy nor the site before.

    Posted via CB10
    02-19-14 07:33 AM
  2. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Really great to see Mr Chen push back against T-Mobile. What a great change in leadership styles and understanding of the market and marketplace. Well done!
    02-19-14 07:38 AM
  3. bungaboy's Avatar
    This is GREAT!!!

    02-19-14 07:40 AM
  4. Corbu's Avatar
    Really great to see Mr Chen push back against T-Mobile. What a great change in leadership styles and understanding of the market and marketplace. Well done!
    And this story is getting a bit of worldwide exposure:
    BBC News - Blackberry boss 'outrage' at T-Mobile iPhone offer

    02-19-14 08:11 AM
  5. wojciechp's Avatar
    Thanks for sharing this...love it.

    Z30 - Das Phone.
    No problem... I thought this was a nice piece to share since it showed an addict iPhone user provide a very non-biased opinion.

    This example and many more posted by the CrackBerry.com community serve as proof that it is only a matter of time now before BlackBerry will be back in a more positive spotlight.

    Posted via swift BlackBerry Z30!
    Shanerredflag, bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    02-19-14 08:31 AM
  6. OMGitworks's Avatar
    And this story is getting a bit of worldwide exposure:
    BBC News - Blackberry boss 'outrage' at T-Mobile iPhone offer

    First heard about it at 630 this morning on CNBC. Only a very short story, maybe 15 seconds, but the fact they reported on it was great. A lot of traders are up and watching on CNBC at that time, some with the volume off, but there was a graphic too.

    Plant the seed, plant the seed, watch them grow.......
    02-19-14 08:50 AM
  7. jake simmons3's Avatar
    Up on High Volume Down on low volume. This thing is still being controlled tightly
    bungaboy and Corbu like this.
    02-19-14 08:59 AM
  8. bungaboy's Avatar
    Up on High Volume Down on low volume. This thing is still being controlled tightly
    Played like a Buddy MacMaster's Cape Breton Fiddle.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-s...ward-1.2489812
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    02-19-14 09:30 AM
  9. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Up on High Volume Down on low volume. This thing is still being controlled tightly
    This isn't TA by any means, but I have hated the SP action over the last few weeks. It feels stalled out and run its course to me, not consolidating. I fear the SP has gone from all the bad news baked in to all the good possibilities baked into the stock price. Again not TA, but I think it really needs to hold $9. The conversion option at $10 and dilution that would occur is not helping. No follow thru on the big hedge fund purchases either.

    Just my gut feelings here. Probably good news for you longs as my gut is a contrarian, normally wrong indicator.
    dusdal, jxnb, snejpa and 1 others like this.
    02-19-14 09:31 AM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    02-19-14 09:46 AM
  11. jake simmons3's Avatar
    This isn't TA by any means, but I have hated the SP action over the last few weeks. It feels stalled out and run its course to me, not consolidating. I fear the SP has gone from all the bad news baked in to all the good possibilities baked into the stock price. Again not TA, but I think it really needs to hold $9. The conversion option at $10 and dilution that would occur is not helping. No follow thru on the big hedge fund purchases either.

    Just my gut feelings here. Probably good news for you longs as my gut is a contrarian, normally wrong indicator.
    I think the dilution has already been priced in. When the new dropped it stock dropped accordingly to the percent of dilution.
    02-19-14 09:54 AM
  12. Ribes Nigrum's Avatar
    Yes! Hi res 1440x1440 big screen and 3gb. That'll be one powerful power user phone.
    bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    02-19-14 10:00 AM
  13. Ribes Nigrum's Avatar
    That ten o'clock dip is getting predictable.
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20140219_170243_edit.png
    02-19-14 10:04 AM
  14. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Hi Morgan & others :-))


    I'm a bit worried over their CORE program. As you've stated many times now, they're in the process of right-sizing their cost model to handle the downturn in revenue. When they first announced CORE, they were able to show steady improvements early on as - I'd expect - they could more easily identify unnecessary spending or ways to do business more efficiently / cheaper.

    Right now I'm questioning their ability to further downsize their cost model. All the noise we've experienced (and which is reflected in their financial statements) during the past few quarters makes it even harder (than it already is) to predict an outcome.

    I have a few thoughts and would love to hear your (or anyone else's of course!!) point of view:

    1. On a quarterly basis, how much would you roughly expect that BlackBerry can save in costs when "all 4,500 employees" are laid off?

    2. When looking back at financial statements of FY2011 up until their latest Q3 FY2014 filing .. they seem to have hit a "base" of approx 1,060 mio in operating expenses and a "base" of approx 1,925 mio in Cost of sales. I've come to that silly conclusion by ignoring the last financial statement, only taking into account their previous 2 filings. I know that this is too straight forward. Therefore the following question: is there a way to calculate both figures for their latest filing if it were not for the write-downs etc?

    To give you a better idea of my intention: eventually I'd like to come up with a revenue figure that they MUST hit on a quarterly basis. So I'm trying to figure out where they stood regarding CORE progress as of last quarter. Then perhaps deduct some marketing spending to come up with a calculated guess of how their worst-case cost model could look like.

    3. I believe their CFO stated that deferred revenue should be close to 0 by the end of this year. I'll provide a link later on as I'm on my Z10 right now. The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of 699 mio if I'm not mistaken. Would this have a direct impact on Cost of sales, Operating expenses or none of the aforementioned?

    That's it for now :-)) I've done some guesstimating myself, and the conclusion I came up with is that the 1.25 billion from PW, 1 billion in tax returns, possible cash from the written down handsets and perhaps real-estate sale are no luxury to the company as their quarterly results could vanish most of this cushion.. unless revenue picks up quickly which I'm afraid I cannot see as achievable anytime soon.

    (long time BlackBerry investor hence why the scepticism)


    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    02-19-14 10:09 AM
  15. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Up on High Volume Down on low volume. This thing is still being controlled tightly
    Really this is pretty common.

    I do not subscribe to a conspiracy. Yesterday was the aberration, today it is making a correction for that.
    02-19-14 10:17 AM
  16. jake simmons3's Avatar
    Hi Morgan & others :-))


    I'm a bit worried over their CORE program. As you've stated many times now, they're in the process of right-sizing their cost model to handle the downturn in revenue. When they first announced CORE, they were able to show steady improvements early on as - I'd expect - they could more easily identify unnecessary spending or ways to do business more efficiently / cheaper.

    Right now I'm questioning their ability to further downsize their cost model. All the noise we've experienced (and which is reflected in their financial statements) during the past few quarters makes it even harder (than it already is) to predict an outcome.

    I have a few thoughts and would love to hear your (or anyone else's of course!!) point of view:

    1. On a quarterly basis, how much would you roughly expect that BlackBerry can save in costs when "all 4,500 employees" are laid off?

    2. When looking back at financial statements of FY2011 up until their latest Q3 FY2014 filing .. they seem to have hit a "base" of approx 1,060 mio in operating expenses and a "base" of approx 1,925 mio in Cost of sales. I've come to that silly conclusion by ignoring the last financial statement, only taking into account their previous 2 filings. I know that this is too straight forward. Therefore the following question: is there a way to calculate both figures for their latest filing if it were not for the write-downs etc?

    To give you a better idea of my intention: eventually I'd like to come up with a revenue figure that they MUST hit on a quarterly basis. So I'm trying to figure out where they stood regarding CORE progress as of last quarter. Then perhaps deduct some marketing spending to come up with a calculated guess of how their worst-case cost model could look like.

    3. I believe their CFO stated that deferred revenue should be close to 0 by the end of this year. I'll provide a link later on as I'm on my Z10 right now. The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of 699 mio if I'm not mistaken. Would this have a direct impact on Cost of sales, Operating expenses or none of the aforementioned?

    That's it for now :-)) I've done some guesstimating myself, and the conclusion I came up with is that the 1.25 billion from PW, 1 billion in tax returns, possible cash from the written down handsets and perhaps real-estate sale are no luxury to the company as their quarterly results could vanish most of this cushion.. unless revenue picks up quickly which I'm afraid I cannot see as achievable anytime soon.

    (long time BlackBerry investor hence why the scepticism)


    Posted via CB10
    At a very very high level I believe they cant cut there expenses drastically.
    Reasoning being:

    1) Real-estate expenses just went bye bye.
    2) Employee base is way way way down
    3) Manufacturing costs will be way down thanks to FOXCONN
    4) Marketing costs are no more basically with exiting the consumer market (for good or temp who knows)
    _dimi_ likes this.
    02-19-14 10:18 AM
  17. spiller's Avatar
    Why do you think you are "protecting myself from losing my entire investment" by going out that long? What's the strike price? There's no protection there, its a pure bet. Your entire investment is absolutely at risk with no hedge or protection. I know you say you are betting its higher in 2016 and I hope it is, but its not protected from anything.

    I've made and lost money on BBRY calls before, but please don't think you are in any way protected. Going out 3 years is a costly way to do it. I would, personally, never go out that far, but its your money so good luck!
    I'm gonna bet he's "protecting" vs another option he was thinking of.... buying short term calls which are much riskier.

    I've been on the wrong side of too many short term BBRY calls over the past year. Now I'm also into Jan 2016 $7 strikes but I got those Dec 20th as I was betting BBRY would be higher than $7.00+$1.60 premium by Jan 2016. If BBRY hits $20 by then I'll be pretty happy

    If I had some extra funds I might pick up more Jan 16 calls here too. Or just more stock. Maybe when/if HALO hits the top of the channel....
    OMGitworks likes this.
    02-19-14 10:19 AM
  18. spiller's Avatar
    Never heard of the guy nor the site before.

    Posted via CB10
    Does it really matter if anyone has heard of him? Looks like a 'normal iPhone user' and give an unbiased review. Too bad he didn't have SNAP downloaded, and installed Netflix + others.

    if BBRY sends out Z30s to a bunch of folks (normal Joe's, who we know aren't paid Apple gimps like BGR) and asks them to give an unbiased review after trying the 7 day challenge, that is cheap marketing. This guys review was great.
    morganplus8, rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    02-19-14 10:22 AM
  19. spiller's Avatar
    This isn't TA by any means, but I have hated the SP action over the last few weeks. It feels stalled out and run its course to me, not consolidating. I fear the SP has gone from all the bad news baked in to all the good possibilities baked into the stock price. Again not TA, but I think it really needs to hold $9. The conversion option at $10 and dilution that would occur is not helping. No follow thru on the big hedge fund purchases either.

    Just my gut feelings here. Probably good news for you longs as my gut is a contrarian, normally wrong indicator.
    Just need Jakarta and news of millions of pre sales from Indonesia. Even if BBRY isn't making much margin, there is zero risk, and it will be positive news. Also positive to revenue growth.

    When Jakarta gets compared to cheap low end laggy Androids at similar price point, the shift may move back in Blackberry's favor.
    02-19-14 10:28 AM
  20. _dimi_'s Avatar
    At a very very high level I believe they cant cut there expenses drastically.
    Reasoning being:

    1) Real-estate expenses just went bye bye.
    2) Employee base is way way way down
    3) Manufacturing costs will be way down thanks to FOXCONN
    4) Marketing costs are no more basically with exiting the consumer market (for good or temp who knows)
    I believe that both real-estate and workforce won't make that much of a difference. I was expecting their marketing costs to go down last quarter.. not sure if it did though.

    Posted via CB10
    02-19-14 10:34 AM
  21. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I think the dilution has already been priced in. When the new dropped it stock dropped accordingly to the percent of dilution.
    But the dilution is not a certain event and some of it may be figured and priced in but I don't think it is anywhere near fully priced in. Hopefully we get the stock price up, then we can see what happens when the conversion is announced. My bet is we see a major SP drop at that time. I just don't see dollar for dollar or anything more than 25% of the potential dilution priced in at this point. I think for those who are aware of it, it is imposing a real ceiling on what they are willing pay for BBRY shares.

    We shall see, hopefully..........
    morganplus8 likes this.
    02-19-14 10:52 AM
  22. Hilman76's Avatar
    Just need Jakarta and news of millions of pre sales from Indonesia. Even if BBRY isn't making much margin, there is zero risk, and it will be positive news. Also positive to revenue growth.

    When Jakarta gets compared to cheap low end laggy Androids at similar price point, the shift may move back in Blackberry's favor.
    Or it gets compared to the Moto G and sales keep getting lower and lower (market share was only at 14% in Indonesia for September 2013).
    02-19-14 10:56 AM
  23. zyben's Avatar
    QNX at Embedded World: three distinct systems, one OS platform

    On Q: QNX at Embedded World: three distinct systems, one OS platform
    rarsen, bungaboy, jxnb and 4 others like this.
    02-19-14 10:59 AM
  24. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Just need Jakarta and news of millions of pre sales from Indonesia. Even if BBRY isn't making much margin, there is zero risk, and it will be positive news. Also positive to revenue growth.

    When Jakarta gets compared to cheap low end laggy Androids at similar price point, the shift may move back in Blackberry's favor.
    I don't know the terms of that deal, but with the risk being pushed to Foxcomm, I have to think BBRY isn't going to see a lot of revenue from this deal. It does a lot of good things for them on the expense and risk sides, but revenue isn't going to be significant. I think the jakarta hand sets and BBM users it may generate are going to be almost impossible to monetize in any significant way, unless its 10's of millions. Even then, I don't see this a BBRy's future. It's why I scoff at trying to value BBM like a whatsapp or twitter or whatever. Those users have buying power and can be upsold. Jakarta users, at least to me, aren't BBRY's target audience going forward. Great BBRY could stay in that segment for "free" with Foxcomm. Software, enterprise, corporate handsets yes, low margin low revenue users not so much. YMMV and of course JMHO.......
    02-19-14 11:01 AM
  25. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hi Morgan & others :-))


    I'm a bit worried over their CORE program. As you've stated many times now, they're in the process of right-sizing their cost model to handle the downturn in revenue. When they first announced CORE, they were able to show steady improvements early on as - I'd expect - they could more easily identify unnecessary spending or ways to do business more efficiently / cheaper.

    Right now I'm questioning their ability to further downsize their cost model. All the noise we've experienced (and which is reflected in their financial statements) during the past few quarters makes it even harder (than it already is) to predict an outcome.

    I have a few thoughts and would love to hear your (or anyone else's of course!!) point of view:

    1. On a quarterly basis, how much would you roughly expect that BlackBerry can save in costs when "all 4,500 employees" are laid off?

    2. When looking back at financial statements of FY2011 up until their latest Q3 FY2014 filing .. they seem to have hit a "base" of approx 1,060 mio in operating expenses and a "base" of approx 1,925 mio in Cost of sales. I've come to that silly conclusion by ignoring the last financial statement, only taking into account their previous 2 filings. I know that this is too straight forward. Therefore the following question: is there a way to calculate both figures for their latest filing if it were not for the write-downs etc?

    To give you a better idea of my intention: eventually I'd like to come up with a revenue figure that they MUST hit on a quarterly basis. So I'm trying to figure out where they stood regarding CORE progress as of last quarter. Then perhaps deduct some marketing spending to come up with a calculated guess of how their worst-case cost model could look like.

    3. I believe their CFO stated that deferred revenue should be close to 0 by the end of this year. I'll provide a link later on as I'm on my Z10 right now. The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of 699 mio if I'm not mistaken. Would this have a direct impact on Cost of sales, Operating expenses or none of the aforementioned?

    That's it for now :-)) I've done some guesstimating myself, and the conclusion I came up with is that the 1.25 billion from PW, 1 billion in tax returns, possible cash from the written down handsets and perhaps real-estate sale are no luxury to the company as their quarterly results could vanish most of this cushion.. unless revenue picks up quickly which I'm afraid I cannot see as achievable anytime soon.

    (long time BlackBerry investor hence why the scepticism)


    Posted via CB10
    Well, this is a loaded message, there are so many variables involved in predicting break-even aren't there? I'm not "worried" about CORE reductions as much as I'm concerned at how slowly they are progressing with those reductions. In Q2 they mentioned that they had $ 135 MM in unresolved CORE adjustments that would be carried forward, so that's good, then they mentioned the 4,500 staff that would be let go and that cost was to be $ 300 MM. All of these are real costs to the bottom line and we can see them in GAAP versus non-GAAP statements by the company. Where it gets crazy is in the actual cost of goods sold as their ARPU - average revenue per unit/person is changing by the minute. They are reducing the cost per unit in inventory, they are losing subs, they are changing the revenue formula per person and all of this prevents us from developing a base-line or break-even analysis.

    I wanted to see more of the $ 435 MM in anticipated charges related to CORE occur by the end of the Q3 period and they barely made any headway in that respect. When you couple all of these variables with the loss of senior staff, it is no wonder why the stock can't rally until they rationalize the business model and right-size the balance sheet and income statement. I also think that CORE looks different to Chen now, he is not following the Heins formula for CORE and that makes things more complicated for us to decide where they are today.

    So the next Q4 report is so important because it will show where legacy handsets are (remember the 30% drop in that sector?) and it also points out how well they are able to get BB 10 out there when the handsets are free to be given away. With free handsets in stock, it makes things even more difficult to map their progress. The best thing you can do is make a list of the strengths and weaknesses and see which ones come close to Q4 financials, then you can model a cost basis after you see what is left of materials in process, hardware and CORE related goals.

    Offsetting all of this is near cash in real estate sales and tax benefits which will be realized in fiscal 2015. This company is so small now that aside from fixed costs, all they need is a product that the market likes, that one handset along with BB10.3X that makes believers in Enterprise. Hopefully Chen will elude to what number of Enterprise and/or handsets are needed to become cash-flow positive by the end of 2015.

    The cost per employee looks to be around $ 65,000 and they stated that CORE related costs would be roughly $ 300 MM and they expect to have the 4,500 gone within the next 3 quarters so if you use that number, their carrying costs of NOT canning those employees is very steep here. I want to see this done ASAP. To end, I do think that they can find plenty of CORE related savings within BlackBerry, with BBM and BB 10 looking more mature each day, I believe they can reduce staff and still maintain quality software improvements all around. QNX should be spun off and so should BBM as separate cost centers, perhaps they will do this down the road. This upcoming Q is going to be a big one for Chen.
    02-19-14 11:04 AM
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