View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Not that I would dare disagree with you, but in the event of a bankruptcy, wouldn't Mr. Watsa move to the front of the collections line?

    Maybe this will help: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/11/...errys-endgame/

    Sounds like a win/win for Mr. Watsa. He couldn't complete his original deal, he makes a ton of money if BBRY goes above $10 and he is first in line in case of a bankruptcy.

    Small investors? Not so good.
    Also the convertible debt will put a cap of $10 on the SP in the short term. Next quarter earnings release is going to be ugly.

    Sent from my HTC One X+ using CB Forums mobile app
    11-04-13 10:45 AM
  2. kfh227's Avatar
    He didn't have a choice in the matter. The BOD decided to go a different route.
    I'm going to bed for 10 years. I hope my shares exist then.


    Posted via CB10
    Randeman, take99, q649 and 1 others like this.
    11-04-13 10:46 AM
  3. silversun10's Avatar
    I know the new PW/1B debt is not secured by specific assets but does anybody know under Canadian law if the bondholders have priority over shareholders? I would think they would, assuming they get paid before shareholders if BBRY has to liquidate, but I know assuming things has risks.... Just trying to sort out what unsecured means and if it also means a lack of priority. Some meaningful distinctions to be drawn there....
    debt would have to be better than equity if things fall apart. but whoever comes in last with loans will always negotiate better terms than the existing debt. FF is the first in line now, that might change in case they get in a debt spiral. but, it is way too early to worry about that now. now it is back to Quarterly reports on sales and profits to see what is up...
    bungaboy likes this.
    11-04-13 10:48 AM
  4. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Why is bbry taking on debt?

    Is it just because if they did burn through cash they wouldn't get financing at that point?

    And if that were to happen, would the extra cash even matter?

    Seems like this is just a sweetheart deal for fairfax. First in line to get his $250m back and if that doesn't happen, he has a lottery ticket.



    Posted via CB10
    Perhaps they have a goal to get to that requires a lot of capital? A purchase? Maybe. Simply cash support to make it through? Maybe. Some other high cost investment? Maybe. Only time will tell. This news can be seen both ways, good and bad, but the more I hear, the good is outweighing the bad.... for now anyway.
    jxnb, Superfly_FR, sidhuk and 2 others like this.
    11-04-13 10:49 AM
  5. peter9477's Avatar
    Also the convertible debt will put a cap of $10 on the SP in the short term.
    How do you figure that? I see nothing stopping the price from going above that, short of the usual reason: market perception. That's not enough to call something a "cap" though, is it?
    cjcampbell, sidhuk and bungaboy like this.
    11-04-13 10:49 AM
  6. gg22's Avatar
    This is the kind of deal Warren makes all the time. (Although, not in a company like BlackBerry) And, Prem is the Canadian Warren Buffet. Normally, these WB deals are seen as good news for companies.
    Maybe the new CEO will make his first speech later today, announcing 40 million xBBM users. Wouldn't that be nice. I suppose our newest shorters, effective today, are hedging their bets.
    It turned out that there is a huge difference between those two "Buffet's" - and not in favour of the Canadian one, who according to his own words put his reputation on the ability to finance this deal and failed.
    sentimentGX4, m1a1mg and techvisor like this.
    11-04-13 10:49 AM
  7. peter9477's Avatar
    Seems like this is just a sweetheart deal for fairfax. First in line to get his $250m back and if that doesn't happen, he has a lottery ticket.
    Wait, so Prem did all this just so that he could be first in line to recover this extra $250M, in the event that the company goes bankrupt?

    Wow, he is a brilliant investor after all! So brilliant that your point of view on that makes no sense to me. ;-)
    11-04-13 10:51 AM
  8. danprown's Avatar
    Debentures rank ahead of shareholders under the basic prioty of creditors over shareholders. Debentures can be secured or unsecured against specific or general assets, subordinate or pari passu to other debentures, etc. The press release says "unsecured subordinated convertible debentures" so I take it to mean they are not secured but am not sure what they are subordinate to since I am not aware there is other debt.

    I know the new PW/1B debt is not secured by specific assets but does anybody know under Canadian law if the bondholders have priority over shareholders? I would think they would, assuming they get paid before shareholders if BBRY has to liquidate, but I know assuming things has risks.... Just trying to sort out what unsecured means and if it also means a lack of priority. Some meaningful distinctions to be drawn there....
    11-04-13 10:51 AM
  9. randall2580's Avatar
    He didn't have a choice in the matter. The BOD decided to go a different route.
    Not sure if the timing is right there. The BOD had already signed the letter with PW and Fairfax and if they could have lived up to the letter of it I think the BOD would have had no choice but to take it to the shareholders. The only way that would have changed is if someone had brought in a superior bid in the "go shop" phase.

    The BOD chose to go this route because Fairfax was unable, not in spite of it as I see it.
    gg22 likes this.
    11-04-13 10:53 AM
  10. cjcampbell's Avatar
    It turned out that there is a huge difference between those two "Buffet's" - and not in favour of the Canadian one, who according to his own words put his reputation on the ability to finance this deal and failed.
    I'm really curious as to where, anywhere, there is proof that he was unable to secure financing? He was approached with another option which he took. There was not some weekend power meeting that came to this turn of events. The strategic committee was looking at strategic options (go figure eh?) and through this, they found the one they chose to be the best, in their opinion. Maybe he couldn't get financing, maybe he could. I said it earlier though, we'll never EVER know.
    11-04-13 10:57 AM
  11. FSeverino's Avatar
    could this 'deal' just be to out TH, and then in a couple months they complete another deal?

    from my understanding TH only gets his money if the company is sold, but it hasnt been sold...

    also, could this be a way for PW to be 'first' ahead of the other deals. so that he gets his $10 shares once another company buys BB and actually raises the share value?
    morganplus8, rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    11-04-13 10:59 AM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Not sure if the timing is right there. The BOD had already signed the letter with PW and Fairfax and if they could have lived up to the letter of it I think the BOD would have had no choice but to take it to the shareholders. The only way that would have changed is if someone had brought in a superior bid in the "go shop" phase.

    The BOD chose to go this route because Fairfax was unable, not in spite of it as I see it.
    So this Chen fellow was just a last ditch effort? From what I've seen and heard, he's quite adept at this sort of thing and would not jump on board if he didn't think he could help turn things around. I still hold my opinion, and it is just that, an opinion, that PW would not have had any issues with financing, as he publicly stated, and was approached with another option/deal of which he decided was better for himself, and his shareholders.
    11-04-13 11:02 AM
  13. Corbu's Avatar
    On the "somewhat positive" side, I like the appointment of John Chen as interim CEO. He seems to have a good track record and to be well connected. Let's hope he can restore some of the luster. How long will he be around? How deeply will be he committed? Who knows... We've been disappointed in the past. Let's hope for the best this time around and judge by the actions. There's lots to be done. The next few weeks should be interesting.
    11-04-13 11:03 AM
  14. FSeverino's Avatar
    So this Chen fellow was just a last ditch effort? From what I've seen and heard, he's quite adept at this sort of thing and would not jump on board if he didn't think he could help turn things around. I still hold my opinion, and it is just that, an opinion, that PW would not have had any issues with financing, as he publicly stated, and was approached with another option/deal of which he decided was better for himself, and his shareholders.
    I think this may be a move to make BB more buyable. is that possible?

    maybe people didnt like TH, and didnt think that the BB cash was enough for the restructure. idk.
    11-04-13 11:04 AM
  15. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I think this may be a move to make BB more buyable. is that possible?

    maybe people didnt like TH, and didnt think that the BB cash was enough for the restructure. idk.
    Any buyer of the company could have ousted him anyway. I see this as a moot point.
    11-04-13 11:05 AM
  16. peter9477's Avatar
    I'm with cjcampbell on his analysis here.

    I think Prem spoke truth when he said Fairfax would have no trouble funding this, even if they basically did it themselves.

    I think, however, that he realized the buyout offer at $9 wasn't going to fly with shareholders, and the whole thing would end up a waste of time and effort. This is the alternative that he and the board worked out, very obviously not at the last minute.

    There are many of us here who were againnst the low-ball offer and would have voted against. While we don't count, you have to think there are numerous larger investors who would have shared our opinion. I bet those investors, like me, are thinking this is a good thing for the company, clears up some problem areas (wink wink nudge nudge), and buys the company some room to finish sorting itself out.
    11-04-13 11:14 AM
  17. silversun10's Avatar
    here is what Chen said in the NR:"I am pleased to join a company with as much potential as BlackBerry," said Mr. Chen. "BlackBerry is an iconic brand with enormous potential - but it's going to take time, discipline and tough decisions to reclaim our success. I look forward to leading BlackBerry in its turnaround and business model transformation for the benefit of all of its constituencies, including its customers, shareholders and employees."

    so, that pretty much tells you, they are not going to try to sell the company again. they are now going to try to sell more and more phones etc.
    11-04-13 11:14 AM
  18. FSeverino's Avatar
    Any buyer of the company could have ousted him anyway. I see this as a moot point.
    but there would have been 55m attached, and then some bad pr on the new ownership.

    im not saying this is the case, im just asking if this is a possibility... do you think that the 'deal' is done, or are there more to come?
    11-04-13 11:15 AM
  19. peter9477's Avatar
    Something I note at the bottom of the News Release (NR), which I'll point out here for the record. I'm sure, if it comes to pass, the media will present it as something shockingly unexpected and new and significant in, likely, a negative way.

    "Pursuant to the Transaction agreement, the investors have an option to purchase up to an additional U.S. $250 million principal amount of Debentures within 30 days following closing. If an additional U.S. $250 million of Debentures is issued and all U.S. $1.25 billion of Debentures were converted, the common shares issued upon conversion would represent approximately 19.2% of the common shares after giving effect to the conversion, based on the number of common shares currently outstanding."

    So Fairfax or someone else may join the party with an extra $250M (would double Fairfax's share of the debenture) by around Dec 18.
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    11-04-13 11:23 AM
  20. randall2580's Avatar
    So this Chen fellow was just a last ditch effort? From what I've seen and heard, he's quite adept at this sort of thing and would not jump on board if he didn't think he could help turn things around. I still hold my opinion, and it is just that, an opinion, that PW would not have had any issues with financing, as he publicly stated, and was approached with another option/deal of which he decided was better for himself, and his shareholders.
    It is not impossible to believe that as time went on and the avenues Prem believed were open to him for the financing were in fact not, he had to change plans. Certainly he knew what a disaster it would be to come to today and say, we couldn't do it and no one else is interested.

    I don't believe mine is any more plausible than yours, just that it is plausible. This 1 billion is not a bad investment in the long run if Bloomberg is right and the bond holders have first rights at a bankrupt BlackBerry should it get there and on that basis he probably had little trouble raising that money. While there is significant disagreement on what the company is worth, it is generally agreed that there is still value there. This 1 billion is a very low risk investment at this time.
    11-04-13 11:25 AM
  21. peter9477's Avatar
    Someone should mention to Prem this idea that having a foot up on everyone else in bankruptcy proceedings (especially on a whopping $250M) is seen as a brilliant move on his part.

    I bet he'd be laughing non-stop until he heads home from work tonight.
    sidhuk and bungaboy like this.
    11-04-13 11:28 AM
  22. peter9477's Avatar
    From The Telegraph:

    Mr Chen’s appointment was seen as a signal that BlackBerry would give up on its handset business, and focus on providing secure software for businesses – one of the company’s key strengths and the area where Mr Chen has most experience. However, the turnaround veteran said on Monday that he had no intention of shutting down BlackBerry’s devices unit.

    "I know we have enough ingredients to build a long-term sustainable business. I have done this before and seen the same movie before,” he told Reuters. He added that he would shake up BlackBerry’s management team, with a slew of internal promotions and new appointments from outside the company. "
    11-04-13 11:33 AM
  23. johnyblaze's Avatar
    Funny enough, most will use the "fail" word, while some will consider that a serious analysis of the situation may have changed strategic options. This is what we can read in French press (Finance - Les Echos, #1 daily newspaper in that segment). I'll try to translate it on my own, but you'll have it in French also if you prefer to do it by yourself.

    Words are important ... see bolded expressions.
    Does not sound like a failure, but as an alternative. A BOD chosen alternative, a rescue plan, not an emergency plan.





    Source : BlackBerry*lve 1 milliard de dollars et conserve son indpendance, Actualits
    Isn't that like saying you have "decided" to remain single after striking out with all the girls in town? I think the harsh reality is that BB is in a very dire situation right now, and most of the players are in damage limitation mode when it comes to their own interests FF especially.
    techvisor and StormieTwo like this.
    11-04-13 11:35 AM
  24. cjcampbell's Avatar
    but there would have been 55m attached, and then some bad pr on the new ownership.

    im not saying this is the case, im just asking if this is a possibility... do you think that the 'deal' is done, or are there more to come?
    Anything is a possibility but if one were to have bought it for 5 billion or more, what is 55 million if it means turning things around? That's probably why the golden parachute was built in, as the inevitable outcome of being sold. Nobody would by a struggling company and leave the struggling management in place.
    bungaboy likes this.
    11-04-13 11:37 AM
  25. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Good Grief. BBRY continues to go down. I would have thought that there would be some kind of rebound.
    peter9477, Superfly_FR and CDM76 like this.
    11-04-13 11:37 AM
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