[silversun10]

The wishful thinking continues. PT Barnum was right. He also believed in TA.

might want to wait gloating till after Monday...

[BBNation]

Is this true? Can Anyone confirm?
Nasdaq options market halted Friday:

Nasdaq Options Market to remain halted until close - Yahoo Finance

I know November $8 calls price is not changing per SP price but volume being shown. With all this price drop the call value did not decrese except for the morning crash. it drop to .40 cents when it hit LOW but it is so close to morning low and yet still showing .50 cernts per call. it is risky to put order in.

[BBNation]

All the takeover deals that I have been involved with were done without any leaks until they were done.
So, silence doesn't mean that something is happening. But when something is indeed happening, there would be silence.

We all know something is happening. BB accepted the offer and looking for better offer. If FB rumour to be true then they have not got firm offer and it was desperate measure to knock the door. Also FB must have SHOWN interest to waster their time. If FB was not interested why would they meet. Shorts are still at work trying to reduce the bid price so smaller loss for them. If no firm offer is made so far PW is getting @ 9 on Monday. His words, reputation and track record is at stake. No body knew him few months ago and now everyone knows him. For men sometime it is not about money but ego, reputation especially in old age such as 60s, 70s. So there we have it. PW gets at $9 with loan. All he needs is 2 bil. So cheap. After monday if other parties interested then it's pocket change for them to pay extra .50 cents to PW. It's better to pay .50 cents extra later than risking $10 without having good time to review the part. That is what other guys doing. They are working on internal discussion on BB acquisition. The paper works take time and it is not flea market where you pay and pick up the goods. All banks and lawyers also have to milk the cow before it is slaughtered.

[JLagoon]

The silence in negotiation is reasonable, and acceptable. What is killing us, the long term shareholders, are how the media portrays Blackberry, how Blackberry shapes that perception, and how the market kicks the SP around. We have gone through the numbers together to calculate book value, ER projection, margin, etc., and the numbers don't show $9 or lower as a "fair" one; even $10, $12, $13.

I think, at least personally, the discrepancy between this calculation, and the SP action is what makes us aggravated very much. We just don't know what will happen, and how things have gone with the exception of the new BES10 clients, and BBMx launch have created a stigma to make some of us feel that we won't get a reasonable fair price, should there be a deal. The combination of these is what creates the uncertainty aggravating.

The subconscious of some of us are trying to uncover the mystery of what potential buyers of Blackberry are willing to spend. In addition, we also have the thought of how well the board of directors will serve the shareholders. In the meantime, there are 145 million shorts, the SP is at $7.7x. It is one sickening situation.

[silversun10]

We all know something is happening. BB accepted the offer and looking for better offer. If FB rumor to be true then they have not got firm offer and it was desperate measure the door. If no firm offer is made so far PW is getting @ 9 on Monday. His words, reputation and track record is at stake. No body knew him few months ago and now everyone knows him. For men sometime it is not about money but ego, reputation especially in old age such as 60s, 70s. So there we have it. PW gets at $9 with loan. All he needs is 2 bil. So cheap. After monday if other parties interested then it's pocket change for them to pay extra .50 cents to PW. It's better to pay .50 cents extra later than risking $10 without having good time to review the part. That is what other guys doing. the paper works take time and it is not flea market where cash and carry.

you cannot conclude that from BB talking to FB. Even if BB had four bids lined up and FB was the fifth, why would BB not want to talk to FB?
the only thing that needs to happen on Monday is FF making the deal real. then the vote and between Monday and the vote date, there is plenty of time for bidders to come out of the wood work...

[JLagoon]

Hi Morgan:

If there is a buyout deal, then the buyer needs to buy all outstanding shares in the open market, correct? If so, how soon does the buyer need to accomplish this? And what are the usual implications to the shorts, and SP action? In BBRY case, would it not push the SP to go up, considering that last batch of sellers are holding for the highest price?

Thank you.

[the_sleuth]

Good luck longs:

http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/1/50...ckberry-buyout

Sent from CB app on Android

[fin2007]

Hi Morgan:

If there is a buyout deal, then the buyer needs to buy all outstanding shares in the open market, correct? If so, how soon does the buyer need to accomplish this? And what are the usual implications to the shorts, and SP action? In BBRY case, would it not push the SP to go up, considering that last batch of sellers are holding for the highest price?

Thank you.

Oh, man, you never traded st before? The buyer does not need buy it from open market.

It is usually like this:
1. company XYZ makes an offer at price $$$ to company 123 on Day D1
2. company 123 board recommends and signs the deal
3. shareholders cast votes for the deal on D2(could be one month to several months later of D1), usually you need 2/3 of the "YES" vote for US co, and usually it is the 2/3 of all voted shares, so unless a big shareholder(like owns 5%+)votes against it, 99.99%+ of the time it will get enough "yes".
4. on D3(usually ~1month later of D2), your broker will assign $$$*#ofYourShares of cash to your account and you have no stock of 123 left.

Most people will just sell 5-20 cents lower than $$$ after 2 unless there could be a higher offer coming, or at latest after 3.

[Soumaila Somtore]

got a BBM saying Qualcomm might joint in on bid, need to verify

edit: here is a link Lazaridis, Qualcomm reportedly mulling a joint bid for BlackBerry with Cerberus | MobileSyrup.com

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/396378398073044992

[bigbbrybeliever]

Crazy SP action in AH, low 7.65, high 7.94 with volume = 780,000 shares.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan:

If there is a buyout deal, then the buyer needs to buy all outstanding shares in the open market, correct? If so, how soon does the buyer need to accomplish this? And what are the usual implications to the shorts, and SP action? In BBRY case, would it not push the SP to go up, considering that last batch of sellers are holding for the highest price?

Thank you.

That's a number of questions, I'll tackle a few of them. The tentative offer by Prem runs out on Nov 4th, he can step aside or announce to the board that he favours another bid over his own. Prem runs the risk of not offering enough to gain the required votes to take the company private, or, he fails to garner enough shares to provide direction to the board. He is no dummy, he knows that just because he pulled a price out of his ****, and the board agrees to it, doesn't mean he will get control of BlackBerry. The worst scenario for him is to buy up shares today hoping that everyone else will follow along and submit their shares to a price approaching $ 9.00/shr. So let's say he gives us two weeks to submit our shares or sell them to him at the current cash price. At the end of two weeks, he might only have 33% of the shares outstanding, missing of course are mine, Mike L and many others too. So now his group have a rather large investment in BBRY only to be able to ask for a seat on the Board. They can do nothing else without 66.6% of the voting rights and a large chunk of the stock. Will he risk owning 33% of the company and still not have control over it? I think not, he will likely want to gauge the response and be prepared to make multiple offers in the weeks and months ahead. I feel he won't get anywhere near enough votes to take the company private on the first go. I see this playing out over months, with everyone having plenty of time to look over the offers and make one of their own.

I'm far more interested in what Mike L will do, if he offered to buy more shares in the open market, sit on the board, change management and leave the company as BlackBerry - BBRY, I would vote for him. We have so many possibilities here, from a change in the CEO, a partnership, a buyout etc., that it is just too soon to know which one will stick. The good news is that the large players don't need tons of time to make such a small purchase. It is guys like Mike L that need time to sort the offer out. He won't do a deal with Prem as long as Prem refuses to give him parity in ownership and Prem has clearly stated that he wants leveraged ownership in the company. Mike will never go for this.

We aren't talking about a great deal of money here, the media would have you believe that it is make or break of BlackBerry when in fact, they have multiple ideas from selling off unwanted real estate to partnerships. As far as how the share ownership goes, they need 90% plus shares to force others into handing over their stock, they could get there via multiple price increases, over time, but that doesn't mean you have to submit your shares, it just means that you won't have a viable means to sell them later on when the delisting takes place. You could hang onto them at your investment peril.

I'm not accepting $ 9.00/shr, I don't care who offers that amount. I want the company to partner up and change the Board to new members that give a dam about the company. Prem doesn't seem to fit in anywhere in BBRY's future, to me he broke louse from the group when he decided to take more than his fair share of the ownership in the shell company. We spend so much time thinking about Prem, we fail to realize that large companies will make an outright bid and be done with it. To think that we should hear bits and pieces of ongoing deals and to think the share price can only go up from here is not clear thinking. We shouldn't know what will take place until it is official, we should be surprised and not expect to get hints in the current price of the stock either.

To summarize, Prem might make a formal offer at $ 9.00/shr, get Board approval for that offer, set the date for submission of your shares and the Arbs will cover the short position during that period so that the rightful shareholders of shorts in escrow can submit their shares ................... all of this will happen over a reasonable period of time. Mike L will assess the transaction and see what he needs to do to protect his position. All of this will drive the share price towards Prem's offer. If it goes above that price, you can conclude that someone else is in the running to stop Prem from getting the company. We could be months into this before we see a deal. Now if a large player steps in at a price that has Mike and Prem stating they support their offer, the whole thing could end within weeks. We just don't know until Prem makes the first move. GL

[bigbbrybeliever]

now high is 8.16 with more than 1 million volume.

[slipstream89]

this weekend will be very interesting....hard not to have this on your mind. Praying for good outcome...we are in need of one with all the disappoint this stock has brought to us

[cgk]

Record Smartphone Shipments Grow the Market 38.8% in the Third Quarter of 2013, Making Way For A Strong Holiday Quarter, According to IDC - prUS24418013
China drives record quarter for smartphones | SmartPlanet

Confirming need of hardware partner and benefits of doing Marketing. GL on Monday

It confirms that hardware is dead, simply to trail android and iOS by a county mile has cost MSFT and partners tens of billions, who has or is willing to spend that sort of money on BB10? Nobody as far as I can see - we will see next quarter (if the company isn't private) that sales have gone completely over the cliff.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk

[abouthsu]

That's a number of questions, I'll tackle a few of them. The tentative offer by Prem runs out on Nov 4th, he can step aside or announce to the board that he favours another bid over his own. Prem runs the risk of not offering enough to gain the required votes to take the company private, or, he fails to garner enough shares to provide direction to the board. He is no dummy, he knows that just because he pulled a price out of his ****, and the board agrees to it, doesn't mean he will get control of BlackBerry. The worst scenario for him is to buy up shares today hoping that everyone else will follow along and submit their shares to a price approaching $ 9.00/shr. So let's say he gives us two weeks to submit our shares or sell them to him at the current cash price. At the end of two weeks, he might only have 33% of the shares outstanding, missing of course are mine, Mike L and many others too. So now his group have a rather large investment in BBRY only to be able to ask for a seat on the Board. They can do nothing else without 66.6% of the voting rights and a large chunk of the stock. Will he risk owning 33% of the company and still not have control over it? I think not, he will likely want to gauge the response and be prepared to make multiple offers in the weeks and months ahead. I feel he won't get anywhere near enough votes to take the company private on the first go. I see this playing out over months, with everyone having plenty of time to look over the offers and make one of their own.

I'm far more interested in what Mike L will do, if he offered to buy more shares in the open market, sit on the board, change management and leave the company as BlackBerry - BBRY, I would vote for him. We have so many possibilities here, from a change in the CEO, a partnership, a buyout etc., that it is just too soon to know which one will stick. The good news is that the large players don't need tons of time to make such a small purchase. It is guys like Mike L that need time to sort the offer out. He won't do a deal with Prem as long as Prem refuses to give him parity in ownership and Prem has clearly stated that he wants leveraged ownership in the company. Mike will never go for this.

We aren't talking about a great deal of money here, the media would have you believe that it is make or break of BlackBerry when in fact, they have multiple ideas from selling off unwanted real estate to partnerships. As far as how the share ownership goes, they need 90% plus shares to force others into handing over their stock, they could get there via multiple price increases, over time, but that doesn't mean you have to submit your shares, it just means that you won't have a viable means to sell them later on when the delisting takes place. You could hang onto them at your investment peril.

I'm not accepting $ 9.00/shr, I don't care who offers that amount. I want the company to partner up and change the Board to new members that give a dam about the company. Prem doesn't seem to fit in anywhere in BBRY's future, to me he broke louse from the group when he decided to take more than his fair share of the ownership in the shell company. We spend so much time thinking about Prem, we fail to realize that large companies will make an outright bid and be done with it. To think that we should hear bits and pieces of ongoing deals and to think the share price can only go up from here is not clear thinking. We shouldn't know what will take place until it is official, we should be surprised and not expect to get hints in the current price of the stock either.

To summarize, Prem might make a formal offer at $ 9.00/shr, get Board approval for that offer, set the date for submission of your shares and the Arbs will cover the short position during that period so that the rightful shareholders of shorts in escrow can submit their shares ................... all of this will happen over a reasonable period of time. Mike L will assess the transaction and see what he needs to do to protect his position. All of this will drive the share price towards Prem's offer. If it goes above that price, you can conclude that someone else is in the running to stop Prem from getting the company. We could be months into this before we see a deal. Now if a large player steps in at a price that has Mike and Prem stating they support their offer, the whole thing could end within weeks. We just don't know until Prem makes the first move. GL

Morgan, a dumb question. Isn't time a problem here especially when BBRY might be burning cash and other expenses that could deplete some form of value if this drag on for the next couple months? And assume there will be a buyer or partnership or some sort of JV, wouldn't it to make sense to get things done as quick as possible?

[JLagoon]

Oh, man, you never traded st before? The buyer does not need buy it from open market.

I don't appreciate the condescending tone, especially in this situation, but do appreciate the explanation. This reminds me, when I held Sears and KMart stock years ago, and they merged. Shareholders got screwed with the new agreed share price.

[morganplus8]

Morgan, a dumb question. Isn't time a problem here especially when BBRY might be burning cash and other expenses that could deplete some form of value if this drag on for the next couple months? And assume there will be a buyer or partnership or some sort of JV, wouldn't it to make sense to get things done as quick as possible?

I'm with you 100%, I want it done quickly so that the company can get back to doing business. But I can see this dragging out for many weeks if Prem is allowed "special treatment" via a breakup payment. He doesn't deserve special treatment as he is offering a price well below BV. He has to give the market time to assess his offer, during that time he can start buying up shares in the open market. Again, as much as I would like to see a deal done quickly, the current suggested offer is too low to expedite the deal quickly. MSFT or Samsung would offer $ 15.00/shr and you and I would be gone on Monday, but Prem's weak bid will drag this out for many weeks. Let's hope we have a 1/2 dozen bids here with one of them so high Prem is out of the running. Then we would be down to a bidding war with Mike L and others. This is going to be a great lession for many on the board. We are already seeing some interesting buying in the AH now. Let's get a $ 5 B partnership lined up with Sammy or MSFT, that would work for me!

[bigbbrybeliever]

now high is 8.16 with more than 1 million volume.

More than 1.3 million shares have been traded so far in the AH. I don't believe that the buyers are the little retail fishes like you and me. Who bought those shares with substantial higher SP than the closing? What do they know that the public does not know?
One thing for sure that those buyers had the news.

[JLagoon]

Thank you so much for the thorough response, Morgan. It helps to comprehend the situation gradually.

[slipstream89]

???

Fairfax Said Short of BlackBerry Bid Financing as Deadline Looms - Bloomberg

[cgk]

Bloomberg breaking news is claiming that Fairfax is short of the cash.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk

[fin2007]

I don't appreciate the condescending tone, especially in this situation, but do appreciate the explanation. This reminds me, when I held Sears and KMart stock years ago, and they merged. Shareholders got screwed with the new agreed share price.

LOL, it seems you really do not have much experience on this. That is fine.
I have at least traded more than 10+ takeovers in the past. (personally I like it)

Usually unless there is a very strong big shareholder(like Carl Icahn) says "no", there is no way the vote could not pass. Retail investors virtually has no say on such voting.

[sidhuk]

Time to hit the gym. Have a great weekend Gang.

[cjcampbell]

???

Fairfax Said Short of BlackBerry Bid Financing as Deadline Looms - Bloomberg

At least we only have to wait the weekend to find out.

[rim4ever]

???

Fairfax Said Short of BlackBerry Bid Financing as Deadline Looms - Bloomberg

FF didn't say a thing. In fact, they declined to comment on the matter. It is the "people with knowledge of the matter" and "who asked not to be named because the process is private". Come on. These people ought to keep their mouth shut or they do not understand the meaning of the simple word "private" if they actually have any knowledge of the matter.