View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. JonCBK's Avatar
    Things looking pretty rough these days. I wonder if BBRY will get broken up and we have seen the last of their top quality handsets.

    On the other hand, someone could be biding their time. Much like on ebay, lots of auctions don't get going until the end as there is no advantage for buyers to tip their hands early.

    Posted via CB10
    10-13-13 09:05 AM
  2. the_sleuth's Avatar
    As this transaction process drags out, there are news stories of customers, enterprises, and employees making their own decisions during this uncertainty.

    Enterprises are doing prudent risk management of delaying BB10 and BES10 and reviewing alternatives due to this uncertainty.

    The best talented and most employable BlackBerry staff are leaving due to the uncertainty such as TAT staff and for example:

    Theres life after BlackBerry: Startups need for talent may soften landing for laid-off workers

    My point is these news stories arrive every week. Most of them are not positive for BlackBerry. BlackBerry's most important asset does not show up on the balance sheet. It's the employees.

    All of us can speculate as to what transaction offer will transpire but uncertainty is weakening the BlackBerry business model.
    CDM76 and bondary like this.
    10-13-13 10:50 AM
  3. fin2007's Avatar
    As this transaction process drags out, there are news stories of customers, enterprises, and employees making their own decisions during this uncertainty.

    Enterprises are doing prudent risk management of delaying BB10 and BES10 and reviewing alternatives due to this uncertainty.

    The best talented and most employable BlackBerry staff are leaving due to the uncertainty such as TAT staff and for example:

    ‘There’s life after BlackBerry’: Startups’ need for talent may soften landing for laid-off workers

    My point is these news stories arrive every week. Most of them are not positive for BlackBerry. BlackBerry's most important asset does not show up on the balance sheet. It's the employees.

    All of us can speculate as to what transaction offer will transpire but uncertainty is weakening the BlackBerry business model.
    Even it is sold to PW or Mike L., I just do not see how they or any other PE firms can turn things around.

    And the latest news show Google has little interest on BBRY because of anti-trust concern.

    BBRY really does not have much choice left now.
    10-13-13 12:38 PM
  4. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Even it is sold to PW or Mike L., I just do not see how they or any other PE firms can turn things around.

    And the latest news show Google has little interest on BBRY because of anti-trust concern.

    BBRY really does not have much choice left now.
    Link on the Google story?

    Posted via CB10
    10-13-13 12:40 PM
  5. morlock_man's Avatar
    Two questions:

    Is there such a thing as a double 'cup and handle'?

    If BBRY goes private for $9, what happens to all those short positions when they get called in?
    10-13-13 12:48 PM
  6. fin2007's Avatar
    Two questions:

    Is there such a thing as a double 'cup and handle'?

    If BBRY goes private for $9, what happens to all those short positions when they get called in?
    It is very simple, if you look at all the companies which were taken private or acquired by another company, usually in the last 3-5 days of their final public trading, the volume would surge to very high level, also on the day the deals were finalized(right now PW has not signed a definitive agreement yet), the volume would also be very high(usually could be 50% or even higher of its total shares). For example, on NOv. 4 if Blackberry BOD says the selling processing is over and it will take private by PW on Dec. 4, then lots of people will just sell BBRY around 8.9 after No.4, why would you wait for another month to gain 1%? most of retail investors would just sell their stakes and go pursuit other opty.

    Shorts could easily cover during those kind of days.
    10-13-13 12:59 PM
  7. morlock_man's Avatar
    It is very simple, if you look at all the companies which were taken private or acquired by another company, usually in the last 3-5 days of their final public trading, the volume would surge to very high level, also on the day the deals were finalized(right now PW has not signed a definitive agreement yet), the volume would also be very high(usually could be 50% or even higher of its total shares).

    Shorts could easily cover during those kind of days.
    Do you have any examples of other companies taken private with high short interest?
    10-13-13 01:02 PM
  8. fin2007's Avatar
    Do you have any examples of other companies taken private with high short interest?
    HGSI, once shorted ratio closed to 60%. acquired by some big company at $30, if I remember correctly.
    So many, most small/medium bio tech companies short ratio are more than 10%, 30% is normal.

    PALM's short ratio was very high too before.
    10-13-13 01:26 PM
  9. JLagoon's Avatar
    Two questions:

    Is there such a thing as a double 'cup and handle'?

    If BBRY goes private for $9, what happens to all those short positions when they get called in?
    Double cup and handle does happen, but not quite often.
    10-13-13 01:46 PM
  10. BBNation's Avatar
    So basically no short squeeze will happen as everyone will be forced to sell or will sell around 9 and shorts will cover millions.of shares. If takeover price is more than 9 let's say 11 then all longs will sell around 11. I have seen shorts won every time in case of BlackBerry so far and looks like they will in November

    Posted via CB10
    Kris Erickson likes this.
    10-13-13 03:41 PM
  11. kfh227's Avatar
    That's assuming he never hedged with any options, right?
    He hedges against a usa based slowdown as he has stated already. He doesn't hedge single positions.

    Posted via CB10
    10-13-13 05:55 PM
  12. fin2007's Avatar
    He hedges against a usa based slowdown as he has stated already. He doesn't hedge single positions.

    Posted via CB10

    some people never think before they talk. If you have 50M shares on a single stock, how do you really hedge against it?

    Basically you need 500K PUT contract to hedge, you add all the put outside and the total number is far less than that, Plus bbry' Volatility is so high, it would actually cost a lot to use option to hedge, it does not even worth it.
    10-13-13 07:15 PM
  13. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    He hedges with derivatives.

    Posted via CB10
    10-13-13 10:28 PM
  14. kadakn01's Avatar
    He hedges with derivatives.

    Posted via CB10
    Yes total return swaps on the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

    Posted via CB10
    10-13-13 10:49 PM
  15. fin2007's Avatar
    Yes total return swaps on the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

    Posted via CB10
    That does not work against stocks like BBRY which keeps dropping like a rocket.

    SP500/Russel 2000 is on history high right now. BBRY is not far away from 10 years low.

    If you short SP500 and long BBRY, you lose hard on both way.
    10-13-13 11:04 PM
  16. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Holy come from behind for The Red Sox....wow.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy likes this.
    10-13-13 11:26 PM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    And now, the CISCO case http://seekingalpha.com/article/1742...readmore&app=1

    Have a nice day gang!


    Posted via CB10
    10-14-13 04:24 AM
  18. kfh227's Avatar
    Holy come from behind for The Red Sox....wow.

    Posted via CB10
    Bull****. I turned it off at 5-0. Same story for the Patriots also.

    Apparently a good day for boston sports fans.

    Posted via CB10
    10-14-13 09:48 AM
  19. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    Good bet!!!
    Guys read the note that goes with the chart. It is the "price of the security on the portfolio date." I am going to bet all of M+8's money PW is still at 17 and that the note means they merely used a set date for all holdings in the portfolio. For example an end of quarter date, in this case 30 Jun 2013. Stupid and misleading way to do it, but I think I am reading it correctly.
    10-14-13 11:42 AM
  20. OMGitworks's Avatar
    He is losing twice hedging the indexes while bbry drops. How about those red sox. Sorry but it reminds me of a certain NHL comeback last season.... patriots had a nice game yesterday too...

    Posted via CB10
    10-14-13 12:14 PM
  21. BBNation's Avatar
    As we all know what happened to Nokia shares after MS takeover deal. SP doubled, shorts covered, still 1/4 left to cover. Comparing BB, if the takeover is higher than 9 or big long boys believe it's value more than $9 we might see similar results.
    Remember Nokia had hit recent weeks low before the surprise. The difference is MS had no choice but too buy Nokia and Nokia did not tell the world that we are desperate and want to sell ASAP.

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    9/30/2013 40,014,215 38,136,895 1.049226
    9/13/2013 78,714,218 146,360,733 1.000000
    8/30/2013 222,244,338 18,227,853 12.192568
    8/15/2013 212,588,902 14,788,357 14.375424
    7/31/2013 219,075,624 22,714,990 9.644540


    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    9/30/2013 142,340,222 39,232,656 3.628106
    9/13/2013 143,034,733 27,050,900 5.287615
    8/30/2013 149,143,958 17,641,052 8.454369
    8/15/2013 152,899,981 39,686,869 3.852659
    Last edited by BBNation; 10-14-13 at 12:29 PM. Reason: more info
    10-14-13 12:22 PM
  22. fin2007's Avatar
    As we all know what happened to Nokia shares after MS takeover deal. SP doubled, shorts covered, still 1/4 left to cover.

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    9/30/2013 40,014,215 38,136,895 1.049226
    9/13/2013 78,714,218 146,360,733 1.000000
    8/30/2013 222,244,338 18,227,853 12.192568
    8/15/2013 212,588,902 14,788,357 14.375424
    7/31/2013 219,075,624 22,714,990 9.644540
    You have no idea how stock trading, period.
    sentimentGX4 likes this.
    10-14-13 12:25 PM
  23. BBNation's Avatar
    You have no idea how stock trading, period.
    Than explain to me and all of us here. If you know how then you should have made millions and as millionaire you would not be reading and posting on this forum
    10-14-13 12:37 PM
  24. kfh227's Avatar
    You have no idea how stock trading, period.
    Tell us more about an insurance company is to hedge.

    Edit.. never mind.. we're talking fairfax. Tell us specifically how they should hedge and why.


    Posted via CB10
    10-14-13 01:40 PM
  25. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    You have no idea how stock trading, period.
    If this is obvious as you pretend, it shouldn't take long to write it down and we'd like to keep learning, from you or anyone. Would you mind explain, please ?

    Now, on other news, BES 10.2 is close to be released. It was expected, but keep in mind this is a VERY big gap, even if listed enhancements seems anecdotal. If I remember correctly, this is the version where we should see unified management for legacy and OS10 devices, for instance.
    http://crackberry.com/bes-102-rolls-...a-new-services
    10-14-13 02:03 PM
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