View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

    Argument from authority. This fallacy is further undermined when the authority has been proven to be wrong on the subject at hand. To wit, Prem is responsible for Fairfax buying and eventually owning 10% one of the worst performing, spectacularly falling , and troubled companies in recent times.
    But some of us love the device and have made out OK on the investment...why you continue to troll your negative crap is getting really old....perhaps adopt a pet and take it for a walk or something.

    Posted via CB10
    10-05-13 03:44 PM
  2. bungaboy's Avatar
    But some of us love the device and have made out OK on the investment...why you continue to troll your negative crap is getting really old....perhaps adopt a pet and take it for a walk or something.

    Posted via CB10
    I suspect the pet might become the victim of abuse . . . . . . .
    10-05-13 03:54 PM
  3. bungaboy's Avatar
    LoL, The current President and Ceo of Rogers Alan D. Horn is a member of the board at Fairfax financial?
    it gets better and better.
    Fairfax - Corporate - Board of Directors
    OK Prem old buddy. I will initially say we won't carry the Z30 to try and drive up the negative frenzy and to drive down the share price. Maybe some interested parties (nudge, nudge, wink, wink( can take advantage of the buying opportunities,

    Then when you have taken BBRY private we can announce the sweetheart deal that we made as part of this manipulation and we will carry the Z30 then.
    Last edited by bungaboy; 10-05-13 at 04:15 PM.
    10-05-13 03:58 PM
  4. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Oh, I believe the fat lady is near now .
    I'm really pleased to read SAP in the line... would be a great partner.
    Now ... since I have 2 lined form my fav 3 list, let me dare once again: count MSFT in (speculative and personal view). Will be interesting Monday

    Exhausted after 12h+ of painting... time for my back to have a break and me to visit Morpheus !
    Good nite all, I love the news !

    OT that's a painted White day !

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00001111.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    10-05-13 04:41 PM
  5. sparkaction's Avatar
    M+8

    I thinking of buying some Jan 2014 calls. What would be your preference - may $9 or $10. Maybe a different expiration date?

    I would prefer not to buy the stock to limit my at-risk capital.
    10-05-13 05:18 PM
  6. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    That's really a beautiful day.
    Hope I'll get it Monday...
    Confident my 1K avg $10.35 will pay it full... , at least the premium over cost
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00001112.png

    Posted via CB10
    Randeman likes this.
    10-05-13 05:20 PM
  7. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Oh, I believe the fat lady is near now .
    I'm really pleased to read SAP in the line... would be a great partner.
    Now ... since I have 2 lined form my fav 3 list, let me dare once again: count MSFT in (speculative and personal view). Will be interesting Monday

    Exhausted after 12h+ of painting... time for my back to have a break and me to visit Morpheus !
    Good nite all, I love the news !

    OT that's a painted White day !

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Posted via CB10
    That's looking awesome Antoine. So glad things are coming together. Salut Ben

    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    10-05-13 09:46 PM
  8. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    That's it for me. Don't care if BB10 lives or dies. Frankly I feel like it deserves to go based on how shamefully BB has acted in the past year.
    Well, we are all with you from a BlackBerry management and product execution standpoint, but give it another thought in regards to the potential of what has recently been discussed here with the M2M/MDM QNX chat, and be sure to go back a page or 2 and check out that outstanding BlackBerry commercial to put things in perspective.



    Posted via CB10
    Randeman likes this.
    10-06-13 02:24 AM
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Anyone wondering if the "massive cash use for promotion" announced by Heins during former former ER was somehow including the inventory write down ?

    I believe we should all start (or continue) to understand BOD people are not chickens of the year and their mouth shut is significant of a long planned strategy.
    If I was an analyst, that's where I'll dig: why do they keep so silent and even succeed in a 99% blackout (no real leaks about the strategy behind the scenes) .

    I believe the committee is nothing but the crisis BOD few with white card and Strong NDA. Nothing will leak until decided...

    It's not a fat lady that will sing, but a chorale....

    Posted via CB10
    sidhuk and Randeman like this.
    10-06-13 02:41 AM
  10. cgk's Avatar
    Anyone wondering if the "massive cash use for promotion" announced by Heins during former former ER was somehow including the inventory write down ?
    This idea was often advanced when HP wrote down the touchpad, that it was a cunning marketing plan - it's a bit.. well odd?

    I believe we should all start (or continue) to understand BOD people are not chickens of the year and their mouth shut is significant of a long planned strategy.
    If I was an analyst, that's where I'll dig: why do they keep so silent and even succeed in a 99% blackout (no real leaks about the strategy behind the scenes) .
    Panic, paralysis? The usual behaviours we see when an organisation is going down? Nothing so far has been atypical in that regard.

    I believe the committee is nothing but the crisis BOD few with white card and Strong NDA. Nothing will leak until decided...

    It's not a fat lady that will sing, but a chorale....
    I'm a bit baffled how anyone can hold to "it's all a cunning plan!" - it's just straightforward panic as carrier support collapses, hardware sales collapses (BB7) or don't ramp (BB10) the BOD run for the exits. Now someone *else* might turn the company around but the current CEO and BOD don't have a cunning plan or if they do they seem unable to implement it.
    gg22 likes this.
    10-06-13 04:28 AM
  11. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    This idea was often advanced when HP wrote down the touchpad, that it was a cunning marketing plan - it's a bit.. well odd?



    Panic, paralysis? The usual behaviours we see when an organisation is going down? Nothing so far has been atypical in that regard.



    I'm a bit baffled how anyone can hold to "it's all a cunning plan!" - it's just straightforward panic as carrier support collapses, hardware sales collapses (BB7) or don't ramp (BB10) the BOD run for the exits. Now someone *else* might turn the company around but the current CEO and BOD don't have a cunning plan or if they do they seem unable to implement it.
    Never said it was in initial plan (and you know I would if I believed it was). But I believe it was anticipated in the first FY E.R. They knew already.

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8 likes this.
    10-06-13 06:33 AM
  12. morganplus8's Avatar
    M+8

    I thinking of buying some Jan 2014 calls. What would be your preference - may $9 or $10. Maybe a different expiration date?

    I would prefer not to buy the stock to limit my at-risk capital.

    sparkaction

    Nice! Those Jan $ 9.00 Strike BBRY's are currently $ .32/option. I would be a buyer of those ones and might just pick some up on Monday if the stock drops a bit due to the "poor shareholder" who is suing because BlackBerry told some of us they liked all of the new products they were spending billions on. Companies aren't allowed to like any of their new developments, I hope this guy wins hundreds of dollars over the next 3 years.

    I will let you buy some before I step in because it was your idea!
    sparkaction likes this.
    10-06-13 08:48 AM
  13. sparkaction's Avatar
    sparkaction

    Nice! Those Jan $ 9.00 Strike BBRY's are currently $ .32/option. I would be a buyer of those ones and might just pick some up on Monday if the stock drops a bit due to the "poor shareholder" who is suing because BlackBerry told some of us they liked all of the new products they were spending billions on. Companies aren't allowed to like any of their new developments, I hope this guy wins hundreds of dollars over the next 3 years.

    I will let you buy some before I step in because it was your idea!
    M+8

    I'm curious on why you may not be interested in the $10 calls? If the LOI firms up at $9 then both the $9 and the $10 are worthless. Both are in-the-money only if a biding war ensures. Yet if a biding war does not occur the i'm out only $130 vs $310 per contract. Your thoughts?
    10-06-13 09:31 AM
  14. morganplus8's Avatar
    M+8

    I'm curious on why you may not be interested in the $10 calls? If the LOI firms up at $9 then both the $9 and the $10 are worthless. Both are in-the-money only if a biding war ensures. Yet if a biding war does not occur the i'm out only $130 vs $310 per contract. Your thoughts?
    Using that analogy, you are losing no matter what happens and that's not sound planning. I have to like the story enough to pay a premium in order to maximize the leverage. I see a less than 20% chance that the stock goes out at $ 9.00/shr in the weeks ahead. I see a 50% chance that the final number is over 11.00/shr and no chance that the deal happens below $ 9.00/shr. So I want the leverage of the $ 9.00 strike options. I also like January as a timeline as this is going to play out for months and not just weeks. That's my personal take on this, I see huge value in the company up to at least $ 13.50/shr and possibly $ 17.00/shr. Clearly I'm bullish here and believe that cash at $ 3.0 billion and at least one major asset in the $ 2.0 billion range places the final offer above $ 12.00/shr.

    For instance, the most hated part of BlackBerry is clearly their handsets, nobody likes them, wants them or would pay for them. So using that theory no one would want to own a product that currently has sales at 5.9 million units as per Q2. Using some very low sales numbers, I see 1.5 million BB 10's at $ 400/unit wholesale (or direct sales) and 3.0 million BB 07's at $ 225 each making the quarterly revenue equal to $ 1.275 Billion for hardware alone and these are conservative numbers. Who wouldn't want to own a product that sells at over $ 5.0 billion plus per year and profitable at scale? Many analysts conservatively value sales at 1 X revenue and so their handset business should be worth at least 50% of that amount alone. That's their worst asset .... $ 2.5 billion! They need to launch BBM-X and BB 10.2 NOW to secure those sales numbers.

    I hear some crazy ideas of what they could do with the parts, and who would be interested in them. BlackBerry will package the parts to allow the company to move on, they won't cripple any part of the business model in order to make a deal.

    You will see:
    Hardware risk farmed out to Samsung or Lenovo with a royalty payment to them for BlackBerry branding. If Samsung or Lenovo want the handset business it will be packaged with a licensing agreement on patents, not a sale. BlackBerry won't sell off the patents and lease back the same in order to continue to sell BB phones. No one will get the patents without a survival plan for everything else that is BlackBerry. That's why I think that the final price is much higher, they have too many options of their own here. $ 9.00/shr is way too weak of a number for those assets.
    10-06-13 11:33 AM
  15. BBNation's Avatar
    M8, more BlackBerry delay the transaction more the damage to all. I think BlackBerry wants to sell it November. At least deal done. Implementing or date to close it be later on like Nokia but all deal nums should be finalized by mid Nov in my view unless bidding war really hits up.

    Posted via CB10
    10-06-13 11:42 AM
  16. morganplus8's Avatar
    M8, more BlackBerry delay the transaction more the damage to all. I think BlackBerry wants to sell it November. At least deal done. Implementing or date to close it be later on like Nokia but all deal nums should be finalized by mid Nov in my view unless bidding war really hits up.

    Posted via CB10
    As long as BlackBerry is in the public eye, there will be short-term damage but they have to get the best deal here and shareholders will have an opportunity to vote on the proposed offer. I see the whole thing going on for many weeks, it can't be done by early November. Let's assume that Prem makes a formal offer, he has to garner votes to complete the deal and I believe he will fail at that price. His deal will die at $ 9.00/shr and it is likely that others will step in and improve the price and even consider buying shares in the company to take the price over $ 9.00/shr thus sealing the failure of Prem's offer. This will play out for months, and certainly not be over in the days ahead. A strong bid that has the agreement or approval of Mike L and Prem would close the deal at a moments notice. Will MSFT come along and offer $ 17.00/shr? That's what it will take to close the deal quickly, anything short of that type of offer will drag things out for months. Prem can't take the company away from shareholders for nothing and the board can't approve of a deal without a shareholder vote and I don't see BB going for $ 9.00/shr. Finally, the assets are worth too much for MSFT and the like not to make a bid. Prem's offer is merely there to get things rolling at $ 9.00/shr. Just my thoughts of course!
    10-06-13 12:09 PM
  17. BBNation's Avatar
    Prem is smart guy, he will be winner either way no matter what happens with BB. As of today he is losing money on BlackBerry but with his current offer if he gets BlackBerry at 9 then he knows he can make good money of it. If bidding war drives prices to higher his 10% will be lose less plus 150 million as break up fees. So he can reduce losses or almost lose nothing with higher bids, make even more if be gets BlackBerry At 9. Look what happened to not tell patents auction. Started with 2 billion. Ended up with 4.5

    Posted via CB10
    10-06-13 12:30 PM
  18. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    For instance, the most hated part of BlackBerry is clearly their handsets, nobody likes them, wants them or would pay for them. So using that theory no one would want to own a product that currently has sales at 5.9 million units as per Q2. Using some very low sales numbers, I see 1.5 million BB 10's at $ 400/unit wholesale (or direct sales) and 3.0 million BB 07's at $ 225 each making the quarterly revenue equal to $ 1.275 Billion for hardware alone and these are conservative numbers. Who wouldn't want to own a product that sells at over $ 5.0 billion plus per year and profitable at scale? Many analysts conservatively value sales at 1 X revenue and so their handset business should be worth at least 50% of that amount alone. That's their worst asset .... $ 2.5 billion! They need to launch BBM-X and BB 10.2 NOW to secure those sales numbers.
    I really dont think you can annualize current handset revenue. Not when it is set to to hit $0 in 6 quarters, and thats conservative.

    There are a lot of negative feedback loops kicking in already:
    • Lower volume means higher component costs which means more expensive handsets.
    • More expensive handsets means lower volume of sales.
    • Lower volume of sales means less developer interest, less mind share and less carrier support.
    • Lower sales means lower volume means higher component costs which means more expensive handsets.


    Its basically a death spiral.
    10-06-13 12:40 PM
  19. silversun10's Avatar
    "I really dont think you can annualize current handset revenue. Not when it is set to to hit $0 in 6 quarters, and thats conservative."

    you can't predict the handsets, but you can say it is $0 in 6 quarters?

    if you can't predict it, you sure as heck can't say it will be $0 in 6 quarters.
    10-06-13 12:55 PM
  20. morganplus8's Avatar
    Prem is smart guy, he will be winner either way no matter what happens with BB. As of today he is losing money on BlackBerry but with his current offer if he gets BlackBerry at 9 then he knows he can make good money of it. If bidding war drives prices to higher his 10% will be lose less plus 150 million as break up fees. So he can reduce losses or almost lose nothing with higher bids, make even more if be gets BlackBerry At 9. Look what happened to not tell patents auction. Started with 2 billion. Ended up with 4.5

    Posted via CB10
    You bring up a very good point that no one has mentioned to date as far as I know; with the breakup fee, Prem's cost of share ownership has dropped to $ 14.00/shr.. Good fine there. It now comes down to Mike L, what does he want to go away? I don't think $ 14.00/shr will do it. Interesting. Thanks
    10-06-13 12:55 PM
  21. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    you can't predict the handsets, but you can say it is $0 in 6 quarters?

    if you can't predict it, you sure as heck can't say it will be $0 in 6 quarters.
    I did not say we can not predict it. I said we can predict a decline. The trend, at least for BB7, for which we have good numbers, is certainly very,very clear.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-next-smartphone-purchase.jpg
    10-06-13 01:12 PM
  22. sidhuk's Avatar
    UThey need to launch BBM-X and BB 10.2 NOW to secure those sales numbers.

    .
    IMO XBBM is being delayed on purpose. the problem they "said" that they have is an "android leak" LoL.
    IOS could have been released. they could not blame on IOS because apple controls their downloadable files. I am gonna make every decision based on that the company is being run by crooks (which is sad). they are too stupid to be true.
    at this point.
    1. I like blackberry technology.
    2. I need to protect my investment.
    3. Management is crook and is out there to screw shareholders.
    4. Media is against it.
    5. Good assets.
    6. No debt.
    7. still cash on hand.
    8. with prem's offer on the table, the time clock has started.
    if I look at the above, I think there will be opportunities to get out of this mess.
    10-06-13 01:26 PM
  23. silversun10's Avatar
    "I did not say we can not predict it. I said we can predict a decline."
    no, you can't
    10-06-13 01:28 PM
  24. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Time for a friendly reminder: stay on argumentation, do not shoot the guy(s). OK until now, keep it alike gang !

    Posted via CB10
    10-06-13 03:03 PM
  25. BBNation's Avatar
    If BlackBerry can get xbbm out within next 2 weeks that alone worth $1-2 . Nothing wrong with bbm.
    It is on hold either due to monetary reason (bid+sp price) OR poor infrastructure capacity planning on NOC Side that could not keep up with extra load. It is very easy to block non-cerified or buggy version of software, just by having access control setup that can take no more than a day to set that up.
    If msft, Google seriously looking at BlackBerry than bbm4all must out now to show the value.

    Posted via CB10
    10-06-13 05:08 PM
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