View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. OzarkaTexile's Avatar
    Gregg, you talk about BB10 in the past tense, it was only just released!

    I am sure they have a plan for the OS development that at least stretches a couple of years to add more functionality and features.

    Second of all why would BlackBerry invest time and resources trying to keep people on a platform that will be dead soon, BlackBerry 7 that is.

    If BlackBerry want to boost bb10 sales the best way to do this would be to speed up migration from bb7 to bb10 for both consumers and enterprise with incentives etc.

    They have a captive audience which is much cheaper to migrate than the general consumer market.

    I personally don't think the hardware is such an issue. If they have heavy BES10 adoption the rest will follow. That should be their primary concern now.

    Posted via CB10
    They may have a plan that goes out years, but BB10 is at the end of its life in the marketplace. BBRY is for sale. Buyers aren't showing up. No one wants to buy the company and consumers aren't buying BB10 devices.

    As for a migration plan. They are selling far more 7 devices than 10. You could argue they should be migrating people from 10 to 7. There's no reason for anyone to migrate to 10.
    10-01-13 06:52 AM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    For me, the proof is in the pudding - if the Z30 is now the flagship device and BBRY are truely committed to handsets in general and consumers in particularly - why has it launched in the UK with a marketing budget of fifty pence?

    Beyond getting less than 30 journos in a small room for a sausage roll last week, I cannot find any evidence that are undertaking... well anything to promote or advertise the device.

    Which is how the Palm Pre 3 was pushed out into the cold to die.
    10-01-13 07:03 AM
  3. slipstream89's Avatar
    10-01-13 07:08 AM
  4. JasW's Avatar
    For me, the proof is in the pudding - if the Z30 is now the flagship device and BBRY are truely committed to handsets in general and consumers in particularly - why has it launched in the UK with a marketing budget of fifty pence?

    Beyond getting less than 30 journos in a small room for a sausage roll last week, I cannot find any evidence that are undertaking... well anything to promote or advertise the device.

    Which is how the Palm Pre 3 was pushed out into the cold to die.
    Scary how that analogy seems to be coming to pass -- released with a whimper in the UK and never officially released in the US, where buyers who wanted one had to go on eBay.
    10-01-13 07:11 AM
  5. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Scary how that analogy seems to be coming to pass -- released with a whimper in the UK and never officially released in the US, where buyers who wanted one had to go on eBay.
    Even if they have a proper roll out of the Z30, most people would not show any interest. The Z30 offers little more than the Z10 and Q10 and will not sell.

    It is sad but the X-Blackberry users have moved on and not looking back. All of the latest news will scare the heck out of anyone who is thinking of moving to Blackberry, can't blame them.
    10-01-13 07:16 AM
  6. Komoto's Avatar
    They may have a plan that goes out years, but BB10 is at the end of its life in the marketplace. BBRY is for sale. Buyers aren't showing up. No one wants to buy the company and consumers aren't buying BB10 devices.

    As for a migration plan. They are selling far more 7 devices than 10. You could argue they should be migrating people from 10 to 7. There's no reason for anyone to migrate to 10.
    Haha ok, make me laugh more.

    Bb10 is at the end of its life... it only just launched! BBRY is for sale, it has nothing with bb10 as a product.

    I think even the bears have admitted that bb10 is a competitive product with respect to features.

    PW has put in an offer, so someone does want to buy it and they were selling units all quarter and have increased revs from BES10.

    Sweeping negative statements don't help your case here.

    You really think there is no reason for people to move from 7 to 10? The way you answer this will determine whether I reply to you again in the future.

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 07:21 AM
  7. silversun10's Avatar
    Even if they have a proper roll out of the Z30, most people would not show any interest. The Z30 offers little more than the Z10 and Q10 and will not sell.

    It is sad but the X-Blackberry users have moved on and not looking back. All of the latest news will scare the heck out of anyone who is thinking of moving to Blackberry, can't blame them.
    right most consumers are Not Prosumers, hello there guys did you get the memo yet?
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    10-01-13 07:24 AM
  8. danprown's Avatar
    I'm trying to get info on the revenue from BES10. Can you point me towards where it says they increased it this quarter and how much it is?

    Haha ok, make me laugh more.

    PW has put in an offer, so someone does want to buy it and they were selling units all quarter and have increased revs from BES10.

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 07:26 AM
  9. hootyhoo's Avatar
    One of reason US, Google, FB, Microsoft, CBI, FBI wants BB to fail..
    Older days they would have to break in to see what you doing..with smartphones no need to do that..they can draw your pix right from their office..
    Long live BB..you are too smart..invented SmartPhone, Cloud..
    The Government Is Spying On Us Through Our Computers, Phones, Cars, Buses, Streetlights, At Airports And On The Street, Via Mobile Scanners And Drones, Through Our Smart Meters, And In Many Other Ways | Conscious News Media
    Why would anyone think that BB is exempt from this, especially those that only use BIS?

    Sent from my DROIDX using CB Forums mobile app
    danprown likes this.
    10-01-13 07:36 AM
  10. W Hoa's Avatar
    BOGOTA, COLOMBIA--(Marketwired - Oct. 1, 2013) - BlackBerry (BBRY)(BB.TO) today announced that the National Police of Colombia is upgrading their BlackBerry smartphones and migrating to BlackBerry's newest Enterprise Mobility Management (EMM) solution, BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10.
    10-01-13 07:37 AM
  11. hootyhoo's Avatar
    BlackBerry played down reports about it pulling out of the consumer market at the London launch event for its Z30 smartphone.

    "Reports have been misconstrued by the media and analysts. BlackBerry is not pulling out of the consumer market, Johnathan Young, senior director of retail and distribution at BlackBerry, told IT Pro.

    Around 80 per cent of our customers are consumers. The UK is a core market for BlackBerry and we've have had strong support from partners."


    Read more: BlackBerry denies consumer market exit reports | IT PRO
    Read:"Please keep buying our phones so that we can get rid of our overstock (ala Playbook)".

    Sent from my DROIDX using CB Forums mobile app
    10-01-13 07:40 AM
  12. tiziano27's Avatar
    Microsoft should buy BlackBerry, It's a big opportunity for them. But maybe Prem Watsa can do a better job downsizng the company, closing the hardware business and then sell then restructured company to Microsoft.
    Maybe Prem Watsa can unload the inventory at a better price and negotiate with suppliers a cheaper way out from a position of weakness.
    10-01-13 07:57 AM
  13. morganplus8's Avatar
    Morgan

    I think you are overestimating the ability to sell Z10s at those prices. I'm sure they can't sell one million of them in a quarter at $450. In fact I doubt they could sell that many at $300. No one will buy the Z10 unless it is the cheapest smartphone in the store. Now I still think there is a chance of the Z30, Q10 and Q5 driving 2 million of sales in a quarter. The Z30 should have very good battery life compared to Android phones and very good cell reception. Also possibly the ability to be sold cheaper than the 5 inch flagships.
    It is nice that BBRY has taken its medicine with this write-off. But I think folks are assuming they have written the phones off to zero. But it might be that they have written them off to something like half value under the assumption that the phones will sell at a decent price. If that assumption doesn't work out then there could be further writeoffs on the same phones. Please correct me if there actually have been statements about writing these phones off to zero and that the phones actually exist somewhere and are paid for. But, if I fear, there are 5 million of these Z10s out there and they have written them off to $100 each, then we may be in a situation where we will see these for sale for cheap for years to come. This is much like the Playbook which is still available new.
    Hi JonCBK!!,

    Trouble is Jon, I can't ignore the fact that for over a month now, or the first month in Q3, the Z10 has been listed or sold "off contract" for $ 500 or more, and today, you have to pay $ 499.00 at Wind Mobile for the Z10, $ 399 for the Q5, $ 599 for the Q10 and so on. Even BlackBerry is selling the Z10 for $ 449 unlocked. On top of that, BlackBerry shows a massive charge in Q2 for Deferred Revenue of $ 498 million dollars! That amount shows up as a negative on the books and is for Services/Hardware sold and paid for (cash in the bank that they cannot show in the quarter as a positive because it is an obligation until they deliver the actual goods or services) and not delivered. We don't talk about that $ 1/2 Billion dollar figure on this thread but all of that money becomes revenue in Q3 as soon as they deliver the goods; and common sense would tell you that those are all phones sold and not given to the end user. If you do the math, $ 500 million divided by, say, $ 300/Z10, you get almost 1.7 million Z10's or equivalent sold in Q2 and not delivered in time to show up in the books. How the heck do people miss these numbers? And so I have to use the modest number of $ 350 for an average selling price for the balance of those phones in Q3. Think of the ramifications to the Q2 numbers if they had delivered those phones? We might see something like 2.2 million used to clean up the Carrier Q1 inventory hold numbers and an additional 1.7 million units for Q2 delivered on time so that's 3.9 million Z10's sold in Q2 which is a huge number! Now some of those phones could be Q10's but let's face it, the Q2 numbers just aren't right and deserve to be questioned.

    The next issue is the number of the write down, you suggest 5 million handsets were partially written down and they may need to be completely written down. In order to have 5 million left in inventory, they would have had to produce 2 million handsets from January to June, this isn't likely because they didn't supply the world with enough phones in Q4/Q1 2012/2013 and everyone complained about that. The phone didn't hit the US until well into that period and only sold to carriers in Q1 around 2.7 million phones before they started to cut production big time. We know they sold 3.7 million Z10's in Q4 and Q1 with most of the Z10's sold in Q2 used to off-set the carrier inventory in Q1. We also know their Deferred Revenue went up by $ 1/2 Billion dollars as they "claim" they didn't deliver all of those phones in Q2 but have a paid obligation to do so in Q3. That is why Q3 could be a block buster of a quarter and no one talks about it!

    I personally don't think there is a single person on this site including Chris who understand the charges from Q2. If you understood the data from Q2 you would be hopping mad at BlackBerry for covering up a pretty good quarter. Hopefully another company will come along and look at the books and ask about the "not so negative" DR, conclude the BlackBerry made things look worse for Prem and buy it up for a few dollars more.

    Speaking to your fear of the Z10 becoming the next Playbook, the Z10 with BB 10.2 is a fantastic phone, it has everything and more, features that you wished your Playbook could do/have by a country mile. I believe they had 2.5 million Z10's stored in warehouses and at carriers with as many as 1.7 BB 10's sold and not delivered meaning there aren't many Z10's left when they fill those orders. You have to ask yourself this one question. "Who in their right mind would pay BlackBerry $ 498 million up front, in cash, for something that wasn't delivered in Q2?
    Last edited by morganplus8; 10-01-13 at 08:11 AM.
    10-01-13 08:00 AM
  14. jake simmons3's Avatar
    Hi JonCBK!!,

    Trouble is Jon, I can't ignore the fact that for over a month now, or the first month in Q3, the Z10 has been listed or sold "off contract" for $ 500 or more, and today, you have to pay $ 499.00 at Wind Mobile for the Z10, $ 399 for the Q5, $ 599 for the Q10 and so on. Even BlackBerry is selling the Z10 for $ 449 unlocked. On top of that, BlackBerry shows a massive charge in Q2 for Deferred Revenue of $ 498 million dollars! That amount shows up as a negative on the books and is for Services/Hardware sold and paid for (cash in the bank that they cannot show in the quarter as a positive because it is an obligation until they deliver the actual goods or services) and not delivered. We don't talk about that $ 1/2 Billion dollar figure on this thread but all of that money becomes revenue in Q3 as soon as they deliver the goods; and common sense would tell you that those are all phones sold and not given to the end user. If you do the math, $ 500 million divided by, say, $ 300/Z10, you get almost 1.7 million Z10's or equivalent sold in Q2 and not delivered in time to show up in the books. How the heck do people miss these numbers? And so I have to use the modest number of $ 350 for an average selling price for the balance of those phones in Q3. Think of the ramifications to the Q2 numbers if they had delivered those phones? We might see something like 2.2 million used to clean up the Carrier Q1 inventory hold numbers and an additional 1.7 million units for Q2 delivered on time so that's 3.9 million Z10's sold in Q2 which is a huge number! Now some of those phones could be Q10's but let's face it, the Q2 numbers just aren't right and deserve to be questioned.

    The next issue is the number of the write down, you suggest 5 million handsets were partially written down and they may need to be completely written down. In order to have 5 million left in inventory, they would have had to produce 2 million handsets from January to June, this isn't likely because they didn't supply the world with enough phones in Q4/Q1 2012 and everyone complained about that. The phone didn't hit the US until well into that period and only sold to carriers in Q1 around 2.7 million phones before they started to cut production big time. We know they sold 3.7 million Z10's in Q4 and Q1 with most of the Z10's sold in Q2 used to off-set the carrier inventory in Q1. We also know their Deferred Revenue went up by $ 1/2 Billion dollars as they "claim" they didn't deliver all of those phones in Q2 but have a paid obligation to do so in Q3. That is why Q3 could be a block buster of a quarter and no one talks about it!

    I personally don't think there is a single person on this site including Chris who understand the charges from Q2. If you understood the data from Q2 you would be hopping mad at BlackBerry for covering up a pretty good quarter. Hopefully another company will come along and look at the books and ask about the "not so negative" DR, conclude the BlackBerry made things look worse for Prem and buy it up for a few dollars more.

    Speaking to your fear of the Z10 becoming the next Playbook, the Z10 with BB 10.2 is a fantastic phone, it ford everything and more that you wished your Playbook could do by a country mile. I believe they had 2.5 million Z10's stored in warehouses and at carriers with as many as 1.7 BB 10's sold and not delivered meaning there aren't many Z10's left when they feel those orders. You have to ask yourself this one question. "Who I their right mind would pay BlackBerry $ 498 million up front, in cash, for something that wasn't delivered in Q2?
    What do you suggest we do? I will be voting no for a 9 dollar take under but they might already have the votes needed to take it
    bungaboy likes this.
    10-01-13 08:07 AM
  15. morganplus8's Avatar
    What do you suggest we do? I will be voting no for a 9 dollar take under but they might already have the votes needed to take it
    I completely agree with you, I will be voting "no" until they explain to me what the DR is for. They usually have a run rate of $ 300 million plus ($ 336 million) and now they are closing in on $ 900 million without telling us what they got paid for and failed to deliver on. I don't care what the breakdown is for that $ 498 million is, it could be Services or hardware and likely mostly hardware but we need to know what it is as it gets shown as revenue in Q3 against written down products. Not good.

    PS. This is only one of several issues that no one is talking about.
    10-01-13 08:24 AM
  16. peter9477's Avatar
    I will be voting no for a 9 dollar take under but they might already have the votes needed to take it
    With institutional ownership possibly as low as 53%, including the FFH holdings, that seems very unlikely. I don't think anyone can possibly say with certainty, or even much of a good bet, whether the vote would be for or against at $9. (Edit: I'd likely vote against $9 as well, for what it's worth. So far I'd say that expectation is held by the majority of the longs I know.)
    10-01-13 08:24 AM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Hi gang !
    Navigating in low volume on no news ...

    P.S: I'm still here, but my schedule exploded this week. Reading as much as I can.
    P.S (2) : Thanks for all the invites, I'll drop a hello in a short while ... but there's ... no place like home ?
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 10-01-13 at 08:42 AM.
    10-01-13 08:29 AM
  18. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Without the MD&A release, it will be difficult for BB execs to explain the skullduggery in Q2 results. I have the distinct feeling BB management is already working for Watsa.
    Bigbacala likes this.
    10-01-13 08:32 AM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Read:"Please keep buying our phones so that we can get rid of our overstock (ala Playbook)".

    Sent from my DROIDX using CB Forums mobile app
    PlayBook stock is empty.
    I made a request for 800 pieces last week.
    No one in Europe has (more than -say - 80-100), neither BB than Wholesalers.
    10-01-13 08:42 AM
  20. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    If you understood the data from Q2 you would be hopping mad at BlackBerry for covering up a pretty good quarter.
    .
    .
    That is why Q3 could be a block buster of a quarter and no one talks about it!
    These two lines stretch credulity. Ignoring the impossible to interpret numbers, there is no evidence from the market that Blackberry has had or will ever be having again "a pretty good quarter" or that this quarter (already 1/3 over) will be "a block buster of a quarter".

    Your analysis fails the sanity check. Reality is a company with extremely low market share, extremely negative PR over the last 6 months, who accepted a low-ball buy-out offer. Those who sold their shares already are the lucky ones.
    10-01-13 08:45 AM
  21. Komoto's Avatar
    Sleuth agreed, that report should have been out already.

    They have months to prepare these things.

    This just wreaks of cooking the books.

    I agree with Morgan. I am surprised to see that no one in the media has picked up on this.

    As I have said when you change accounting practices you need to notify plus offer comparative figures during the transition. Where are these?

    I am also surprised that Kevin and Chris have performed a 180 aswell. Neither of them has questioned these changes. Don't want to put my tinfoil hat on but it is difficult not to...

    In my opinion this business is far from dead it is being reborn and someone doesn't want people to see it.

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 08:52 AM
  22. Komoto's Avatar
    As for bes10 someone else posted it went up from 60 mil to 80mil q to q.

    That may be an aggregate figure of a couple of different Rev streams. Not sure.

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8 and Superfly_FR like this.
    10-01-13 08:53 AM
  23. Komoto's Avatar
    These two lines stretch credulity. Ignoring the impossible to interpret numbers, there is no evidence from the market that Blackberry has had or will ever be having again "a pretty good quarter" or that this quarter (already 1/3 over) will be "a block buster of a quarter".

    Your analysis fails the sanity check. Reality is a company with extremely low market share, extremely negative PR over the last 6 months, who accepted a low-ball buy-out offer. Those who sold their shares already are the lucky ones.
    Bentley has a pretty small market share they do ok, don't they? How is that a negative? All depends on what size the business is set up for.

    You admit that the offer is low ball. It is all relative if it is a failing company as you suggest it is, then this is a high ball offer, no?

    Your analysis consistently fails to show any sort of business logic.

    I think Morgan justified his reasons behind his claim. If they are to recognised deferred income next quarter plus write down is so jot so bad it would be a big positive as all expenses related have already been accounted for. You understand accounting right?

    Posted via CB10
    10-01-13 09:00 AM
  24. tiziano27's Avatar
    Hi JonCBK!!,

    Trouble is Jon, I can't ignore the fact that for over a month now, or the first month in Q3, the Z10 has been listed or sold "off contract" for $ 500 or more, and today, you have to pay $ 499.00 at Wind Mobile for the Z10, $ 399 for the Q5, $ 599 for the Q10 and so on. Even BlackBerry is selling the Z10 for $ 449 unlocked. On top of that, BlackBerry shows a massive charge in Q2 for Deferred Revenue of $ 498 million dollars! That amount shows up as a negative on the books and is for Services/Hardware sold and paid for (cash in the bank that they cannot show in the quarter as a positive because it is an obligation until they deliver the actual goods or services) and not delivered. We don't talk about that $ 1/2 Billion dollar figure on this thread but all of that money becomes revenue in Q3 as soon as they deliver the goods; and common sense would tell you that those are all phones sold and not given to the end user. If you do the math, $ 500 million divided by, say, $ 300/Z10, you get almost 1.7 million Z10's or equivalent sold in Q2 and not delivered in time to show up in the books. How the heck do people miss these numbers? And so I have to use the modest number of $ 350 for an average selling price for the balance of those phones in Q3. Think of the ramifications to the Q2 numbers if they had delivered those phones? We might see something like 2.2 million used to clean up the Carrier Q1 inventory hold numbers and an additional 1.7 million units for Q2 delivered on time so that's 3.9 million Z10's sold in Q2 which is a huge number! Now some of those phones could be Q10's but let's face it, the Q2 numbers just aren't right and deserve to be questioned.

    The next issue is the number of the write down, you suggest 5 million handsets were partially written down and they may need to be completely written down. In order to have 5 million left in inventory, they would have had to produce 2 million handsets from January to June, this isn't likely because they didn't supply the world with enough phones in Q4/Q1 2012/2013 and everyone complained about that. The phone didn't hit the US until well into that period and only sold to carriers in Q1 around 2.7 million phones before they started to cut production big time. We know they sold 3.7 million Z10's in Q4 and Q1 with most of the Z10's sold in Q2 used to off-set the carrier inventory in Q1. We also know their Deferred Revenue went up by $ 1/2 Billion dollars as they "claim" they didn't deliver all of those phones in Q2 but have a paid obligation to do so in Q3. That is why Q3 could be a block buster of a quarter and no one talks about it!

    I personally don't think there is a single person on this site including Chris who understand the charges from Q2. If you understood the data from Q2 you would be hopping mad at BlackBerry for covering up a pretty good quarter. Hopefully another company will come along and look at the books and ask about the "not so negative" DR, conclude the BlackBerry made things look worse for Prem and buy it up for a few dollars more.

    Speaking to your fear of the Z10 becoming the next Playbook, the Z10 with BB 10.2 is a fantastic phone, it has everything and more, features that you wished your Playbook could do/have by a country mile. I believe they had 2.5 million Z10's stored in warehouses and at carriers with as many as 1.7 BB 10's sold and not delivered meaning there aren't many Z10's left when they fill those orders. You have to ask yourself this one question. "Who in their right mind would pay BlackBerry $ 498 million up front, in cash, for something that wasn't delivered in Q2?
    Amazon US, z10 $349.
    Amazon.com: BlackBerry Z10 Unlocked Cell Phone - International Version with No Warranty (Black): Cell Phones & Accessories

    I'm not an accountant.
    I understand carriers can return phones to manufacturer if they couldn't sell them. BlackBerry use the account "Deferred Revenue" to register something similar to a provision in case some of the shipped stock is returned. If they think the probability of carriers selling the shipped stock decreased because the demand is weak, the have to increase this the value of this account "Deferred Revenue" and recognize less revenue. I think they said they didn't change the rules for revenue recognition, they just applied the usual rules.
    10-01-13 09:07 AM
  25. danprown's Avatar
    I assume BES is under "Software and Other" -- an aggregate of several revenue streams which are disparate. I am not sure BBRY ever posted BES numbers so that is why I was asking.

    As for bes10 someone else posted it went up from 60 mil to 80mil q to q.

    That may be an aggregate figure of a couple of different Rev streams. Not sure.

    Posted via CB10
    tiziano27 likes this.
    10-01-13 09:08 AM
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