View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1107. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. Komoto's Avatar
    Black, I think you are forgetting that revs have decreased in total so it is natural that the service becomes a larger part, not because it is growing but because it is shrinking less quickly than hardware.

    Posted via CB10
    danprown and BlackistheBerry like this.
    09-30-13 09:13 AM
  2. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Service revenue dropping fast ????? ........

    - The contribution of services to BlackBerry?s revenues has also increased to 46% for the quarter, up from 35% in the same quarter last year and 26% in the previous quarter.

    - The contribution of software and other revenue has increased year-on-year to 5%, up from 3% in the same quarter last year but flat from 5% in the previous quarter.

    Source-

    BlackBerry Sold 5.9M Devices In Q2-FY14; $277M APAC Revenues, $934M Z10 Writedown - MediaNama

    To be fair we need to know the raw numbers and also quote the other part of the release that shows hardware falling 11%. What you quote by itself doesn't tell us that services grew, only that the MIX of BBRY's revenue changed.

    Hardware sales contribution: The contribution of hardware sales to BlackBerry’s revenues has declined to 49% for the quarter, down from 60% in the same quarter last year and 71% in the previous quarter.

    We don't know for sure that service revenue is growing in total. Part of the problem with BBRY's ER is that they changed methods, hid numbers they used to give and reported thing sin the light most favorable to it without explanation of what the key numbers are. Add the cancelling of the call and I think you have a complete mystery as to the current financial status of BBRY.

    Perhaps they did this on purpose...we shall see...
    09-30-13 09:14 AM
  3. anon1727506's Avatar
    I have been investing for over 30 years. One thing I have learned over time, most sell-side analyst reports are not worthy to cover a public toilet seats.

    As others have mentioned, at $7.00/share bid offer, I would say high probability of shareholders rejecting it.

    If there is no rival bid, even LOI becoming firm offer of $9/ share, there is a probability of shareholder rejection.

    Remember, the current tangible book value is $9.54/ share. $9.00 is a lousy offer and smells of corporate raiding. Prem Watsa is not your uncle or other family relative. So why trust him?

    No matter the noise in the media, there is value in BlackBerry assets. But rival bid will have to act quickly.

    Or else the piranhas will kill BlackBerry's future with a thousand cuts of FUD.

    Sent from CB app on Android
    Rivals have had a YEAR to make an offer on BlackBerry... this isn't the first time they have gone shopping for a buyer.

    I do agree that getting 90% agreement from shareholders is going to be very tough without giving them some real information on the financial. situation. That said if they do reject $9 a share, and BB looses another $500 - $600 Million each quarter... how long do they have?

    I don't see shareholders ever getting a better offer.... but I think too refuse to take their losses and move on. Which in the long run will just prolong the uncertainty and continue to encourage enterprise partners to find alternative solutions.
    09-30-13 09:18 AM
  4. fin2007's Avatar
    To be fair we need to know the raw numbers and also quote the other part of the release that shows hardware falling 11%. What you quote by itself doesn't tell us that services grew, only that the MIX of BBRY's revenue changed.

    Hardware sales contribution: The contribution of hardware sales to BlackBerrys revenues has declined to 49% for the quarter, down from 60% in the same quarter last year and 71% in the previous quarter.

    We don't know for sure that service revenue is growing in total. Part of the problem with BBRY's ER is that they changed methods, hid numbers they used to give and reported thing sin the light most favorable to it without explanation of what the key numbers are. Add the cancelling of the call and I think you have a complete mystery as to the current financial status of BBRY.

    Perhaps they did this on purpose...we shall see...

    The numbers are out there, is it that hard to find out?

    1. Service revenue:
    78M subscribers to 72M from March 2013 to May 2013, a 7% drop,
    now they do not give subscriber number, but we can see service revenue drop from 796M to 734M, that is another 8%.
    in half year, subscriber number dropped 15%.

    2. Software + other revenue dropped from 94+ to 80M this quarter, a ~15% quarter over quarter,
    if you look at one more quarter, BES revenue dropped about the same ratio.
    So basically software revenue is dropping ~15% per quarter.
    danprown likes this.
    09-30-13 09:48 AM
  5. kfh227's Avatar
    I'd bbry is truly screwed, what can Prem do about it that can't be done without him. I don't see how going private changes the fate of blackberry. And Prem knows this and he wants to own it all.


    This could send Fairfaxes market cap through the roof in 5 years.

    Might be time to go long fairfax.


    Posted via CB10
    Komoto, Randeman, bungaboy and 4 others like this.
    09-30-13 09:54 AM
  6. bungaboy's Avatar
    Here's the NY Times graphic. Take it for what it's worth. Some will see truth, others will no doubt see media distortion but the fact is that it appeared in the US's "best" paper which is read/seen by many decision makers.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ref=technology
    Well . . . . . the line has flattened out from 2102-2013.
    OMGitworks and sidhuk like this.
    09-30-13 10:06 AM
  7. rarsen's Avatar
    Copy of a general article from ZDNet promoting MS purchase BB.

    Microsoft should buy BlackBerry. There, I said it | ZDNet
    09-30-13 10:11 AM
  8. peter9477's Avatar
    I'd bbry is truly screwed, what can Prem do about it that can't be done without him. I don't see how going private changes the fate of blackberry.
    The stated and reported reasons for doing this are right in the Letter of Intent: "Under our proposal, the Company can avail itself of the benefits of a private operating environment without the distraction of the public markets and the emphasis on short-term financial results."

    The thesis is that the reporting period and content required of a public company has forced them to operate with short-term thinking, and that removing that requirement would let them operate more long-term.

    I don't agree with that thesis. If focusing short-term led them to make mistakes, which resulted in vaporizing shareholder value, then clearly it would have been better to focus long-term in the first place. Why didn't they? The fact that they're a public company may be an excuse, but I don't see how that forced them into taking the actions they did.
    09-30-13 10:13 AM
  9. the_sleuth's Avatar
    I don't disagree with you there but BBRY made it official on August 12th. LOI shows BOD will entertain any offer now.

    From what I read, currently BBRY most valuable asset is Certicom patents on mobile encryption:
    BlackBerry patent goldmine could exceed its value as a smartphone maker: Analysts

    Mobile payments market is about to explode in growth. If the above article is correct, then $2.6 B in cash + $2.25 B in encryption assets = $4.85 B for starters. Surely, there is value in the other assets?

    Although I agree with pundits that hardware assets are a liability right now to any rival bid. Nevertheless, summing the parts, Watsa is stealing this company. Rival bidders will see this. A strategic bidder can leverage the assets for greater return. Ballmer understands this, that's why MSFT is curiously watching BBRY.

    Rivals have had a YEAR to make an offer on BlackBerry... this isn't the first time they have gone shopping for a buyer.

    I do agree that getting 90% agreement from shareholders is going to be very tough without giving them some real information on the financial. situation. That said if they do reject $9 a share, and BB looses another $500 - $600 Million each quarter... how long do they have?

    I don't see shareholders ever getting a better offer.... but I think too refuse to take their losses and move on. Which in the long run will just prolong the uncertainty and continue to encourage enterprise partners to find alternative solutions.
    danprown and sparkaction like this.
    09-30-13 10:13 AM
  10. OMGitworks's Avatar
    The numbers are out there, is it that hard to find out?

    1. Service revenue:
    78M subscribers to 72M from March 2013 to May 2013, a 7% drop,
    now they do not give subscriber number, but we can see service revenue drop from 796M to 734M, that is another 8%.
    in half year, subscriber number dropped 15%.

    2. Software + other revenue dropped from 94+ to 80M this quarter, a ~15% quarter over quarter,
    if you look at one more quarter, BES revenue dropped about the same ratio.
    So basically software revenue is dropping ~15% per quarter.
    Oh but when you analyze it by percentage as that story did, it seems SOOO much better and like it's growing. You could pretty much bank on subs going down once they told us we wouldn't get that metric anymore.

    I see Crackberry has a story on the BBM "Launch." It's truly pathetic. "Still 100% committed." What the heck does that mean. As I read their words and think of this most recent debacle, all I can think is Playbook. I think that history will tell us that the Playbook marked the beginning of the end of BBRY as we know it, perhaps even as BBRY in total.
    danprown and anon1727506 like this.
    09-30-13 10:14 AM
  11. fin2007's Avatar
    Oh but when you analyze it by percentage as that story did, it seems SOOO much better and like it's growing. You could pretty much bank on subs going down once they told us we wouldn't get that metric anymore.

    I see Crackberry has a story on the BBM "Launch." It's truly pathetic. "Still 100% committed." What the heck does that mean. As I read their words and think of this most recent debacle, all I can think is Playbook. I think that history will tell us that the Playbook marked the beginning of the end of BBRY as we know it, perhaps even as BBRY in total.
    Ok, whatever.

    If you believe bbry software/serivce revenue are growing, so be it.
    09-30-13 10:16 AM
  12. Randeman's Avatar
    Copy of a general article from ZDNet promoting MS purchase BB.

    Microsoft should buy BlackBerry. There, I said it | ZDNet
    I'm pretty sure that's SuperFly writing under a pseudonym...
    09-30-13 10:19 AM
  13. danprown's Avatar
    I do not think we really know the BES revenue though, because in that 80 MM, there is the QNX revenue presumably, plus "OTHER" and we do not have a breakdown between Software and Other, or do we?

    The numbers are out there, is it that hard to find out?

    1. Service revenue:
    78M subscribers to 72M from March 2013 to May 2013, a 7% drop,
    now they do not give subscriber number, but we can see service revenue drop from 796M to 734M, that is another 8%.
    in half year, subscriber number dropped 15%.

    2. Software + other revenue dropped from 94+ to 80M this quarter, a ~15% quarter over quarter,
    if you look at one more quarter, BES revenue dropped about the same ratio.
    So basically software revenue is dropping ~15% per quarter.
    09-30-13 10:21 AM
  14. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I was being sarcastic, sorry if I wasn't clear.
    09-30-13 10:24 AM
  15. danprown's Avatar
    Gosh, what I say here? can not you ever read a financial report sarcasm?

    Ok, whatever.

    If you believe bbry software/serivce revenue are growing, so be it.
    _dimi_ likes this.
    09-30-13 10:27 AM
  16. danprown's Avatar
    Asolutely agree. The truth is that they did not focus on the short-term, per se, since Mike L and TH clearly invested in QNX and BB10 with a long-term plan and also withheld the release until it was "ready." Hardly a "short-term" thinking. According to the Globe article, TH also delayed the BBM cross-platform until the BB10 rollout, so again there has always been some long-term plan. Now PW wants to tell us BBRY has been focused on the short term while buying the company for a song and adance. I don't buy it.

    The stated and reported reasons for doing this are right in the Letter of Intent: "Under our proposal, the Company can avail itself of the benefits of a private operating environment without the distraction of the public markets and the emphasis on short-term financial results."

    The thesis is that the reporting period and content required of a public company has forced them to operate with short-term thinking, and that removing that requirement would let them operate more long-term.

    I don't agree with that thesis. If focusing short-term led them to make mistakes, which resulted in vaporizing shareholder value, then clearly it would have been better to focus long-term in the first place. Why didn't they? The fact that they're a public company may be an excuse, but I don't see how that forced them into taking the actions they did.
    09-30-13 10:33 AM
  17. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Still 100% committed to bringing ‪#‎BBM‬ to Android and iPhone. Sign up at BBM.com to know when ‪#‎BBM4All‬

    -BB
    sidhuk, morganplus8 and m0de25 like this.
    09-30-13 10:43 AM
  18. jayrock52's Avatar
    Google might be interested in BlackBerry? Just found this.
    http://basicsmedia.com/why-is-google...asdaqbbry-6380

    Posted via CB10
    09-30-13 10:49 AM
  19. silversun10's Avatar
    Asolutely agree. The truth is that they did not focus on the short-term, per se, since Mike L and TH clearly invested in QNX and BB10 with a long-term plan and also withheld the release until it was "ready." Hardly a "short-term" thinking. According to the Globe article, TH also delayed the BBM cross-platform until the BB10 rollout, so again there has always been some long-term plan. Now PW wants to tell us BBRY has been focused on the short term while buying the company for a song and adance. I don't buy it.
    it is more that they don't need to meet Quarterly Earnings expectations by the market, no more stories about big misses or loss of sales that come with it.
    danprown and peter9477 like this.
    09-30-13 10:55 AM
  20. silversun10's Avatar
    Google might be interested in BlackBerry? Just found this.
    Why is Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) Contemplating Buying BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY)?

    Posted via CB10
    this guy is just rambling on, not sure what his point was
    _dimi_ likes this.
    09-30-13 10:59 AM
  21. sidhuk's Avatar
    Still 100% committed to bringing ‪#‎BBM‬ to Android and iPhone. Sign up at BBM.com to know when ‪#‎BBM4All‬

    -BB
    Your soundcloud music account is awesome. Thanks
    09-30-13 11:08 AM
  22. silversun10's Avatar
    09-30-13 11:22 AM
  23. Komoto's Avatar
    On a positive note it looks as though we will be getting instagram and vine.

    I don't use them, but aren't those the two big ones?

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy and BlackistheBerry like this.
    09-30-13 11:22 AM
  24. anon1727506's Avatar
    I don't disagree with you there but BBRY made it official on August 12th. LOI shows BOD will entertain any offer now.

    From what I read, currently BBRY most valuable asset is Certicom patents on mobile encryption:
    BlackBerry patent goldmine could exceed its value as a smartphone maker: Analysts

    Mobile payments market is about to explode in growth. If the above article is correct, then $2.6 B in cash + $2.25 B in encryption assets = $4.85 B for starters. Surely, there is value in the other assets?

    Although I agree with pundits that hardware assets are a liability right now to any rival bid. Nevertheless, summing the parts, Watsa is stealing this company. Rival bidders will see this. A strategic bidder can leverage the assets for greater return. Ballmer understands this, that's why MSFT is curiously watching BBRY.
    Agree that the patents are most likely the crown in the assets that Fairfax is going after... But for every analyst that values them at $5 - $8 Billion just for the patents, there is another that says they are only worth $800 Million to $1.5 Billion. As a seller you might want the high number, but as a buyer PW likes the low number... so he has room to make a profit reselling it.

    If you have the time to hold off and wait for the right buyer to buy the whole package, or that the time to sell individual block of patents... you would most likely get a better price. The problem is how long would that take? Can you afford to take the time? Or is it better to settle for what you can get?

    Is Certicom patents and ECC encryptions a "key" asset... who knows really knows what it is worth today or five years from now. In another post here on CB, someone said some of the key Certicom patents were about to expire and they pointed out that there were several other companies that hold ECC encryption patents.

    It all comes down to what well someone pay for BlackBerry as a whole, and what are shareholders willing to accept to get out. The true "value" is only a stating point...
    09-30-13 11:26 AM
  25. BergerKing's Avatar
    On a positive note it looks as though we will be getting instagram and vine.

    I don't use them, but aren't those the two big ones?

    Posted via CB10
    Two of the biggest thread generators here. Viber is another.
    bungaboy likes this.
    09-30-13 11:29 AM
106,466 ... 20562057205820592060 ...

Similar Threads

  1. Does the Motion have the paratek antenna?
    By Steve Pogue in forum BlackBerry Motion
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 01-13-18, 12:33 AM
  2. Replies: 11
    Last Post: 11-23-17, 11:06 PM
  3. Will Hub+ work on the new Google Pixelbook?
    By danosman in forum BlackBerry HUB+ Suite
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11-02-17, 07:42 AM
  4. BlackBerry highlights the impact of KRACK vulnerability on BlackBerry products
    By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-30-17, 03:10 PM
  5. Hub and Viber notifications broken
    By LyoobaBerry in forum BlackBerry HUB+ Suite
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-30-17, 02:54 PM

Tags for this Thread

LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD