View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1107. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Not my fault. It only looks that way because $8/share has left most of your formerly vociferous cohorts dumbstruck and silent. There is a direct correlation between share price and bullish posts/charts/pontifications. It's a direct relationship - as share price falls so do the bullish posts. Don't blame your alleged "trolls".

    Not even the formerly biggest bull wants to look so ridiculous and foolish as to post another "cup and handle chart" after the last earnings debacle. He apparently has some shame left at least!
    If you thought that many of us stepped away because the SP is down, you are dead wrong. This is not the first drop we seen. Morgan is away for a few days that's why he has not posted recently, not because SP is down. I stepped away because I have a deadline for a $ 5 million proposal coming up Monday and need to focus on that. Many had taken the discussion somewhere else to get away from your bull, not to hide from the SP drop. I'm posting now because I can't watch SF dealing with your crap politely on his own. <rude comment deleted by moderator>

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by HelloNNNewman; 09-27-13 at 10:02 PM. Reason: inappropriate language removed
    09-27-13 09:35 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    09-27-13 09:36 PM
  3. howarmat's Avatar
    09-27-13 09:49 PM
  4. BergerKing's Avatar
    Time for a break
    Thanks, I was about to do the same.
    09-27-13 09:52 PM
  5. BergerKing's Avatar
    Many people are probably tired of the "Why are you posting here?" posts. It seems like that is the new, go-to tactic when people get flustered/and or have nothing else to say.

    Sent from my Nexus 4 using CB Forums mobile app
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    bungaboy and Superfly_FR like this.
    09-28-13 09:19 AM
  6. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    First....

    Posted via CB10
    cjcampbell, bungaboy, gg22 and 4 others like this.
    09-28-13 09:24 AM
  7. Shanerredflag's Avatar


    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy and jxnb like this.
    09-28-13 09:24 AM
  8. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I would like to add this:

    I can not think of a better ambassador for BlackBerry or this site than SuperFly...anyone who tries to twist his intentions into anything other than genuinely sincere can kiss my grits. Clear enough?

    Posted via CB10
    09-28-13 09:27 AM
  9. BergerKing's Avatar
    Before anyone else gets cute.

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    09-28-13 09:44 AM
  10. the_sleuth's Avatar
    I read an article yesterday in Globe & Mail about BlackBerry's debt financing challenge. I cannot post it here as it's in the paid section of the website.

    In summary then:
    Since BlackBerry has no credit history in long term debt then pricing the debt will be a challenge. One proxy could be Nokia. Nokia's credit rating is at "junk" status with corporate bonds yielding around 11% at one point. The author of the article commented that BlackBerry's debt could be priced as high yield corporate bond at about 9%. Now if Blackberry secured $1.5 Billion in debt then the annual interest payments would be about $135 million.

    Now as I reviewed the financial statements of Q2, the cash flow from operations is $486 million. Using rule of thumb 4x EBITDA, then Walsa's deal can be financed with $2 billion if EBITDA remains constant. If EBITDA is projected lower, then perhaps the most that can be financed is $1.5 billion as the above article suggests.

    There are rumors that the Fairfax consortium has secured about $1.7 Billion in equity (roll over of equity from Watsa, pensions, and perhaps Lazaridis) and would need $3 Billion in debt (WSJ reports this week) to consummate $4.7 Billion.

    So as it stands based upon Q2 financial statements, then Fairfax consortium has $1 Billion shortfall in equity for this LOI to fly. Hence, a lot of capital market pros are saying the LOI price will drop from $9.

    Just food for thought. Hopefully, there will be rival bids in the coming weeks to make LOI irrelevant.

    Have a great weekend everyone.
    Last edited by the_sleuth; 09-28-13 at 09:59 AM. Reason: fixing typo
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    09-28-13 09:54 AM
  11. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I read an article yesterday in Globe & Mail about BlackBerry's debt financing challenge. I cannot post it here as it's in the paid section of the website.

    In summary then:
    Since BlackBerry has no credit history in long term debt then pricing the debt will be a challenge. One proxy could be Nokia. Nokia's credit rating is at "junk" status with corporate bonds yielding around 11% at one point. The author of the article commented that BlackBerry's debt could be priced as high yield corporate bond at about 9%. Now if Blackberry secured $1.5 Billion in debt then the annual interest payments would be about $135 million.

    Now as I reviewed the financial statements of Q2, the cash flow from operations is $486 million. Using rule of thumb 4x EBITDA, then Walsa's deal can be financed with $2 billion if EBITDA remains constant. If EBITDA is projected lower, then perhaps the most that can be financed is $1.5 billion as the above article suggests.

    There are rumors that the Fairfax consortium has secured about $1.7 Billion in equity (roll over of equity from Watsa, pensions, and perhaps Lazaridis) and would need $3 Billion in debt (WSJ reports this week) to consummate $4.7 Billion.

    So as it stands based upon Q2 financial statements, then Fairfax consortium has $1 Billion shortfall in equity for this LOI to fly. Hence, a lot of capital market pros are saying the LOI price will drop from $9.

    Just food for thought. Hopefully, there will be rival bids in the coming weeks to make LOI irrelevant.

    Have a great weekend everyone.
    Is it BlackBerry assuming the debt or the suitors looking to buy? I'm unsure as to why the credit rating of the target comes into play as opposed to the hunter.
    silversun10 and rarsen like this.
    09-28-13 10:18 AM
  12. sparkaction's Avatar
    Is it BlackBerry assuming the debt or the suitors looking to buy? I'm unsure as to why the credit rating of the target comes into play as opposed to the hunter.
    I believe he is correct. The debt is being used to finance the purchase of an asset (bbry) which generates cash flow. This cash flow will be used to service the debt obligations (P & I). Thus the risker the CF then the more likely of default. FF could put up collateral or be a guarantor to reduce the lender's risk to reduce the interest rate of the bond.
    09-28-13 10:31 AM
  13. sparkaction's Avatar
    Sleuth

    Let's assume that there is another bidder. What do you think they is the most could offer based on the underlying assets of bbry? Assuming no synergistic benefits.

    Also assuming there is a rumor within the next 6 weeks of another bidder, who do you think it maybe? Maybe PE firm?
    09-28-13 10:35 AM
  14. chr1sny's Avatar
    Thanks BK. I wanted the IP addresses so I could send a friend of mine to pay them a social call. LoL
    This post is highly underrated.
    09-28-13 10:41 AM
  15. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I believe he is correct. The debt is being used to finance the purchase of an asset (bbry) which generates cash flow. This cash flow will be used to service the debt obligations (P & I). Thus the riser the CF then the more unlikely of default. FF could put up collateral or be a guarantor to reduce the lender's risk to reduce the interest rate of the bond.
    Ok cool. I can appreciate that but the purchasers credit rating and CF would also come into play no? It's not BlackBerry looking to buy back all the shares to take itself private. I'm asking because I really don't know but to me it makes no sense to concentrate on the ability of BlackBerry to pay back the debt incurred by the consortium, who got(will get?) the credit due to their credit history and ability to pay back debts. It's not like it's me going to get the loan and 100% of the risk is put on BB's CF and ongoing ability to pay it back.
    09-28-13 10:44 AM
  16. silversun10's Avatar
    Ok cool. I can appreciate that but the purchasers credit rating and CF would also come into play no? It's not BlackBerry looking to buy back all the shares to take itself private. I'm asking because I really don't know but to me it makes no sense to concentrate on the ability of BlackBerry to pay back the debt incurred by the consortium, who got(will get?) the credit due to their credit history and ability to pay back debts. It's not like it's me going to get the loan and 100% of the risk is put on BB's CF and ongoing ability to pay it back.
    makes sense, but the way they structured it they are setting up a new spinco that will hold the shares of FF and presumably other partners and then i guess this spinco is going to buy BB and then the spinco will need to borrow the money based on the credit worthiness of BB.
    another thing is, if this is indeed the setup that the spinco is going to pay FF and partners for the shares they put into the spinco, then FF does not benefit by lowering the price of the deal. In fact FF and partners can now scoop up shares at $8 and stick to the $9 deal and make a quick buck. (ofcourse FF says they are not buying more, but we don't know about the partners).
    cjcampbell likes this.
    09-28-13 11:11 AM
  17. howarmat's Avatar
    Let me make this clear. If the posts dont get back on the subject of BBRY then I dont see a purpose for this thread. Over 20 posts removed because none of you can just leave a post alone. You all have to respond. STOP RESPONDING
    cjcampbell, Randeman, gg22 and 5 others like this.
    09-28-13 11:30 AM
  18. johnyblaze's Avatar
    Sleuth

    Let's assume that there is another bidder. What do you think they is the most could offer based on the underlying assets of bbry? Assuming no synergistic benefits.

    Also assuming there is a rumor within the next 6 weeks of another bidder, who do you think it maybe? Maybe PE firm?
    Since the current "offer" is $9 dollars I see no reason any suitors would pay much more than that say $9.1, legally BB would be required to accept that right?

    Sent from my ALCATEL_one_touch_995 using CB Forums mobile app
    09-28-13 11:30 AM
  19. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Let me make this clear. If the posts dont get back on the subject of BBRY then I dont see a purpose for this thread.
    Thanks and sorry about that. I shouldn't have engaged.
    09-28-13 11:31 AM
  20. bungaboy's Avatar
    Since the current "offer" is $9 dollars I see no reason any suitors would pay much more than that say $9.1, legally BB would be required to accept that right?

    Sent from my ALCATEL_one_touch_995 using CB Forums mobile app
    BBRY can take that offer to shareholders for a vote, with a recommendation. The shareholders will decide to accept or otherwise, No?
    09-28-13 11:50 AM
  21. Etios's Avatar
    Since the current "offer" is $9 dollars I see no reason any suitors would pay much more than that say $9.1, legally BB would be required to accept that right?

    Sent from my ALCATEL_one_touch_995 using CB Forums mobile app
    The current offer of $9 is very good for shareholders and there is a chance that Prem Watsa will lower this further going forward, I don't see any other offer coming as only industry giants like Google and Microsoft can do that and they have already bought two big companies for that.
    09-28-13 11:56 AM
  22. peter9477's Avatar
    Since the current "offer" is $9 dollars I see no reason any suitors would pay much more than that say $9.1, legally BB would be required to accept that right?
    Not right at all. Shareholders can turn it down if they wish, when the vote comes. It's not up to the company or board to decide this.
    09-28-13 12:00 PM
  23. johnyblaze's Avatar
    BBRY can take that offer to shareholders for a vote, with a recommendation. The shareholders will decide to accept or otherwise, No?
    Exactly, if they think shareholders will accept $9 than surely they will accept $9.1. What I'm getting at is the offer won't be much above the current $9.

    Sent from my ALCATEL_one_touch_995 using CB Forums mobile app
    09-28-13 12:00 PM
  24. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Exactly, if they think shareholders will accept $9 than surely they will accept $9.1. What I'm getting at is the offer won't be much above the current $9.

    Sent from my ALCATEL_one_touch_995 using CB Forums mobile app
    If other offers come in, they won't come in just slightly higher like that. All that would do is spur a pointless bidding session in tiny increments.. If another suitor appears and wants the company, they'll want to avoid that and just put in a clear offer of intent to deter the lower bidders from outbidding. Just my opinion of course.
    09-28-13 12:04 PM
  25. Etios's Avatar
    Not right at all. Shareholders can turn it down if they wish, when the vote comes. It's not up to the company or board to decide this.
    LOL shareholders can turn it down as they wish but they will only be hurting themselves by doing so, it is better to get $9 than getting $2-$3 later or worse doing a Nortel.
    09-28-13 12:07 PM
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