View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. anamar_97's Avatar
    Questions to the experts:
    Hypothetically when Nov 4th comes and Fairfax's 9$ offer stands what happens to the shares we own? Do we need to sell on that day or does it get automatically sold by the brokerage?
    09-27-13 12:16 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    GREEN....just for you bud!!!

    Posted via CB10
    You beat me at it !
    By the way it's
    "WE ARE GREEEEEEEEENNNNNN!"
    If not, party poos of all bord will come and claim their desesperation about small investors (us) being stolen [to whom it may concern]

    Now give me anything MSFT...
    CULater gang!

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00001099.png

    Posted via CB10
    jxnb, abouthsu, sidhuk and 5 others like this.
    09-27-13 12:17 PM
  3. danprown's Avatar
    I need some help:

    When we talk about the BES installs (the 25,000 number) to understand the associated expected and current revenue, are we are talking about:

    1. server installations (are they free?)
    2. 3 levels of licenses -- enterprise mobility management, secure workspace, emm regulated for blackberry only -- which currently are $18, ?, and ? respectively (per year) or is there some sort of lifetime fee
    3. some level of maintanance contract (with BBRY? or a reseller/carrier?)


    Isn't a reseller doing the front work most of the time with those so presumably it must be getting them from BBRY slightly below MRSP.

    And then all that gets lumped in the financials under "Software and Other" -- basically QNX revenue, cross-licensing of patents, financial instruments, etc?
    09-27-13 12:19 PM
  4. Gekko's Avatar
    do not agree with 4 and 5.
    With the 4500 headcount cut, I do not believe BB would burn their cash much. Even if you look at this qtr, their cash burn was in bulding another 900M inventory.
    5. why you need shutdown BB? BB7 phone still sells 3.5~4M unit per quarter. I do not get why you need shut it down?

    I kind of agree with you Google overpaid MOT.

    My point here is with a $3.5B price tag, I would say the subscriber number(70M) alone would be enough to get the money back, that is like $50 per user? or really? $50 per user? one year contract is more than that, right? Remember many of them are government/enterprise contracts which last for years. Someone posted a link US DoDjust renewed their contract with BBRY in the begin of this year for another 3 years. Even the subscriber drops half in the next two years, it still worth more than 3B by any calculation.
    1. the BB handset business is toast. margins are low, sales decline is accelerating, and the recent news will accelerate that decline further. why would any IT guy buy new BB handsets? so the volumes you site will quickly melt away in the near future - not to mention the terrible margins. this business will have to be shut down and if you are unlucky to own it you will have to pay for the shutdown. who wants that cost? it's coming.
    2. many times "contracts" for orders can be cancelled at any time.
    09-27-13 12:21 PM
  5. Gekko's Avatar
    Questions to the experts:
    Hypothetically when Nov 4th comes and Fairfax's 9$ offer stands what happens to the shares we own? Do we need to sell on that day or does it get automatically sold by the brokerage?
    i'm no expert but if the deal closes the proceeds should appear in your cash account at your brokerage. in other words, you don't have to do anything.
    09-27-13 12:23 PM
  6. fin2007's Avatar
    1. the BB handset business is toast. margins are low, sales decline is accelerating, and the recent news will accelerate that decline further. why would any IT guy buy new BB handsets? so the volumes you site will quickly melt away in the near future - not to mention the terrible margins. this business will have to be shut down and if you are unlucky to own it you will have to pay for the shutdown. who wants that cost? it's coming.
    2. many times "contracts" for orders can be stopped at any time.
    1. Even with BBRY on sale itself, BBRY still sold 3.7M old BB phone, that tells something. You do not need earn money from the hardware. What I am saying it does not really cost 2B to shutdown the hardware business. I said early, once everything settles down, you can easily sell 5M+ units of BB phone a quarter. In the worst, you can sell the hardware business/BB OS to a asian player for free. I am sure Lenova would happily take that.

    2. If google/MSFT takes bbry, why would the US/Canada/UK government cancel their contract? LOL.
    09-27-13 12:27 PM
  7. m0de25's Avatar
    i'm no expert but if the deal closes the proceeds should appear in your cash account at your brokerage. in other words, you don't have to do anything.
    You sure do sound like an expert when claiming that Prem Watsa isn't fit to wash Warren Buffett's jock strap, or various shots at M+8 on here.

    Other than that, your other contributions have been reasonably enjoyable to read. I'm torn.
    09-27-13 12:34 PM
  8. danprown's Avatar
    Because it may not be of net benefit to Canada or on national security grounds. Canada has once blocked MDA (aerospace) from being acquired by a US firm. Not out of the question. It is going to be a political headache for the government if it approves sale and then the new "foreign" owner guts it out, picks the cherries, and is out of the country. Incumbent conservative will lose in the next election. Much more palatable is homegrown consortinum, tries to "salvage it" and guts and sell. That is why you see Prem primping and going on and on how he will keep it together.

    2. If google/MSFT takes bbry, why would the US/Canada/UK government cancel their contract? LOL.
    09-27-13 12:37 PM
  9. OMGitworks's Avatar
    1. Even with BBRY on sale itself, BBRY still sold 3.7M old BB phone, that tells something. You do not need earn money from the hardware. What I am saying it does not really cost 2B to shutdown the hardware business. I said early, once everything settles down, you can easily sell 5M+ units of BB phone a quarter. In the worst, you can sell the hardware business/BB OS to a asian player for free. I am sure Lenova would happily take that.

    2. If google/MSFT takes bbry, why would the US/Canada/UK government cancel their contract? LOL.
    I am not sure you understand how winding down the hand set business would actually work. IF they get out of the handset business it will cost at least 1B to do so. You just can't walk away. You have people, plant, equipment, contracts, severance, legacy costs and things to deal with and no revenue to offset it. You just can't shut the doors and walk away, and nobody is going to take it for free. It just doesn't work that way in real life.

    And your statement that you could easily sell 5M+ handsets per quarter is just silly. They barely did that with a brand new product.

    Google and MSFT already have handset acquisitions. Unlikely either wants to make another bad deal they will regret.
    Last edited by OMGitworks; 09-27-13 at 12:44 PM. Reason: added another comment to address #2
    09-27-13 12:38 PM
  10. Gekko's Avatar
    1. Even with BBRY on sale itself, BBRY still sold 3.7M old BB phone, that tells something. You do not need earn money from the hardware. What I am saying it does not really cost 2B to shutdown the hardware business. I said early, once everything settles down, you can easily sell 5M+ units of BB phone a quarter. In the worst, you can sell the hardware business/BB OS to a asian player for free. I am sure Lenova would happily take that.

    2. If google/MSFT takes bbry, why would the US/Canada/UK government cancel their contract? LOL.
    1. you're looking backwards at one snapshot in time - you assume those sales numbers will increase fom 3.7M to 5M into the future. i do not believe that BB sales numbers will go up - nor even stay level and flatten out. i believe in the trend and i believe that we will continue to see the sales trend down rapidly accelerate as all of the negative spirals come into play.
    2. they don't want BB.
    09-27-13 12:38 PM
  11. fin2007's Avatar
    1. you're looking backwards at one snapshot in time - you assume those sales numbers will increase fom 3.7M to 5M into the future. i do not believe that BB sales numbers will go up - nor even stay level and flatten out. i believe in the trend and i believe that we will continue to see the sales trend down rapidly accelerate as all of the negative spirals come into play.
    The trend is BB7 phone sale number is virtually no change in the last 3 quarters. as for BB10 phone, I do not know yet.
    And BTW,, bbry sold 5.9M units in the past quarter, not 3.7M units.
    09-27-13 12:41 PM
  12. silversun10's Avatar
    Questions to the experts:
    Hypothetically when Nov 4th comes and Fairfax's 9$ offer stands what happens to the shares we own? Do we need to sell on that day or does it get automatically sold by the brokerage?
    your broker will give you instructions, but i doubt the deal closes by Nov 4 already. they signed a LOI till then
    09-27-13 12:42 PM
  13. Gekko's Avatar
    I am not sure you understand how winding down the hand set business would actually work. IF they get out of the handset business it will cost at least 1B to do so. You just can't walk away. You have people, plant, equipment, contracts, severance, legacy costs and things to deal with and no revenue to offset it. You just can't shut the doors and walk away, and nobody is going to take it for free. It just doesn't work that way in real life.

    And your statement that you could easily sell 5M+ handsets per quarter is just silly. They barely did that with a brand new product.
    Killing Palm Cost HP About $1.7 Billion This Quarter

    Killing Palm Cost HP About $1.7 Billion This Quarter - Business Insider
    09-27-13 12:42 PM
  14. Jahcure's Avatar
    Because it may not be of net benefit to Canada or on national security grounds. Canada has once blocked MDA (aerospace) from being acquired by a US firm. Not out of the question. It is going to be a political headache for the government if it approves sale and then the new "foreign" owner guts it out, picks the cherries, and is out of the country. Incumbent conservative will lose in the next election. Much more palatable is homegrown consortinum, tries to "salvage it" and guts and sell. That is why you see Prem primping and going on and on how he will keep it together.
    Also why government said it will watch closely. Election time not too far and we already seeing vote buying going in with Toronto subway funds. bet they will watch how this will end because it will become fodder.

    Posted via CB10
    danprown likes this.
    09-27-13 12:42 PM
  15. fin2007's Avatar
    Killing Palm Cost HP About $1.7 Billion This Quarter

    Killing Palm Cost HP About $1.7 Billion This Quarter - Business Insider

    why you need completely shutdown if the buyer is MSFT/GOOGLE/Lenova. It is not like they are not in the hardware business at all. HP completely quit their smartphone business for shutdown PALM.

    But Msft/Google/Lenova would NOT.
    09-27-13 12:49 PM
  16. Gekko's Avatar
    Also why government said it will watch closely. Election time not too far and we already seeing vote buying going in with Toronto subway funds. bet they will watch how this will end because it will become fodder.

    Posted via CB10
    what do you mean? which would generate more canadian voter outrage? canadian government bails out BB or canadian government tells BB to drop dead?
    09-27-13 12:50 PM
  17. Gekko's Avatar
    why you need completely shutdown if the buyer is MSFT/GOOGLE/Lenova. It is not like they are not in the hardware business at all. HP completely quit their smartphone business for shutdown PALM.

    But Msft/Google/Lenova would NOT.
    your magical buyers already have a successful mobile OS and handsets so they would probably never buy BB in the first place. but if they did - why would they keep the losing 2% market share BB handset business operations? every day they're aleady stealing more and more market share from BB. they are acquiring BB's business already - one customer at a time!
    09-27-13 12:52 PM
  18. fin2007's Avatar
    Also why government said it will watch closely. Election time not too far and we already seeing vote buying going in with Toronto subway funds. bet they will watch how this will end because it will become fodder.

    Posted via CB10
    At this stage, if some big US companies like MSFT/Google/IBM offers a higher price for bbry, I do not see any reason why the Canada government would block the deal. Nortel' assets in the end were pretty much acquired by US companies.

    If it is Lenova, I do not think US/Canada government would allow them to take the security network/subscribers.
    silversun10 likes this.
    09-27-13 12:54 PM
  19. silversun10's Avatar
    why is BB trading below the $9 mark?
    what about who stands to benefit from that? shorters? yes! potential buyers? yes!
    these are two powerful groups, so you do the math!!!
    09-27-13 12:54 PM
  20. Gekko's Avatar
    why is BB trading below the $9 mark?
    what about who stands to benefit from that? shorters? yes! potential buyers? yes!
    these are two powerful groups, so you do the math!!!
    BlackBerry Reports Nearly $1 Billion Quarterly Loss

    http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/0...uarterly-loss/
    09-27-13 12:58 PM
  21. fin2007's Avatar
    your magical buyers already have a successful mobile OS and handsets so they would probably never buy BB in the first place. but if they did - why would they keep the losing 2% market share BB handset business operations? every day they're aleady stealing more and more market share from BB. they are acquiring BB's business already - one customer at a time!
    I am really not sure if there is a buyer or not, actually I see another buyer's possibility is less than 20%, but at $8 right now, I am not worried.

    In stock market, everything is possible, Nok dropped to $1.7 early this year and people kept bashing NOK saying they worth nothing because their hardware business lost billions each of the last 2 years.(The money NOK lost in the two years can buy 2 BBRY right now). Now it is $6.6
    BBY price dropped to 13 when people kept claiming AMZN would cause BBY to bankruptcy and the former CEO takeover(take it private like PW does on BBRY) failed, now it is $40 in 6 months.

    To be honest, if the final price is $9, I will vote "NO" no matter if it matters, I'd rather BBRY acts alone and we could see a surprise.
    09-27-13 12:59 PM
  22. tiziano27's Avatar
    I need some help:

    When we talk about the BES installs (the 25,000 number) to understand the associated expected and current revenue, are we are talking about:

    1. server installations (are they free?)
    2. 3 levels of licenses -- enterprise mobility management, secure workspace, emm regulated for blackberry only -- which currently are $18, ?, and ? respectively (per year) or is there some sort of lifetime fee
    3. some level of maintanance contract (with BBRY? or a reseller/carrier?)


    Isn't a reseller doing the front work most of the time with those so presumably it must be getting them from BBRY slightly below MRSP.

    And then all that gets lumped in the financials under "Software and Other" -- basically QNX revenue, cross-licensing of patents, financial instruments, etc?
    They include everything in that number. So, If download the evaluation of the software and install it, they count in those 25.000. The number doesn't mean much to estimate the revenue, but you can use it as a hint of some interest in the product.

    I'm not sure but in the annual report I see:
    Software: Server licenses (BES), CALs, upgrades and software support.
    Other: Non-warranty hardware repairs, accessories, IP licensing, loss/gain in hedging instruments.

    Software and Other dropped 14% in q2, not a good sign for BES10, but a break up of each item is needed to be sure.
    Last edited by tiziano27; 09-27-13 at 01:05 PM. Reason: correction
    danprown likes this.
    09-27-13 01:01 PM
  23. silversun10's Avatar
    BlackBerry Reports Nearly $1 Billion Quarterly Loss

    http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/0...uarterly-loss/
    sorry but we have known that for a week now, you will have to do better than a silly reply like this!
    bungaboy likes this.
    09-27-13 01:06 PM
  24. fin2007's Avatar
    sorry but we have known that for a week now, you will have to do better than a silly reply like this!
    I would say
    1. option expire matters.
    2. people is still not sure if PW could take the company at $9, since he does not commit any additional money.
    09-27-13 01:13 PM
  25. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Shorts have little to gain at this point, they have already made a killing. I think the answer to your question is that the street doesn't believe in PW's offer and/or his ability to get it done. If they did they could make a quick 10-15% in a month or two, a real no brainer. The SP should be between $8.75-9.00. In fact, if they thought there was the possibility of another offer, it would be over $9. It.s not ,so my explanation, for better or worse is the only thing that sense to me here. Sad, but seemingly true.
    take99 and gg22 like this.
    09-27-13 01:16 PM
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