View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. johnyblaze's Avatar
    Also think BB10 hardware is done, they might ride bbOS in developing markets for a while longer and reap the declining service revenue though.
    09-27-13 08:44 AM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    I think their strategy with the write down is to get the Z10 into enterprise at a reduced cost (free)....with 10.2 the Z is a fantastic device and people will see that...makes sense to me anyway.

    Posted via CB10
    I think that will happen.
    09-27-13 08:47 AM
  3. the_sleuth's Avatar
    I am ok with your $11.2 book value.

    But how the heck the subscriber/security network /BES server worth nothing?
    The above parts you mentioned have value and are already reflected in the balance sheet (except the subscribers). Watsa knows this and is playing the rules in his favor.

    Insider->Strategic Alternatives->Change revenue recognition->Earnings warning->LOI

    Watsa has played it beautifully. You have to admire the Devil.

    Next week's M&D analysis will be interesting as it should show a comparison between old revenue method and the new one.
    09-27-13 08:55 AM
  4. spiller's Avatar
    No volume. Should we expect the shorts to take advantage of a 10:30 dip if there is so little volume?
    09-27-13 08:56 AM
  5. cgk's Avatar
    Going back to the hardware for a minute, this is from Jabel's earnings call and while that has been quoted, nobody seems to have done this bit:


    So to frame this out, when we sat 90 days ago, we were having a good year with BlackBerry. And again, I'll emphasize, BlackBerry has been a great customer. We typically don't talk about specific customers. But again, because of the impact to the company, we felt it important. As we look forward in setting the FY '14 models, we de-rated the BlackBerry numbers, just based on the overall environment and where we felt would be a very conservative estimate. That obviously appeared to be not conservative enough with what's taking place.

    So the core impact is a combination of loss of income as well as the infrastructure we have in place for BlackBerry. Again, we've been a customer -- or a supplier to them for 6, 7 years, and we have a substantial amount of infrastructure in place. So the infrastructure is a combination of depreciation. We're going to -- we're in discussions right now on how we're going to wind down the relationship. And depending on the timing of that, we'll end up with individual or employee resources to deal with. Some of that will be captive or captured in the charges. And then we have depreciation that we won't be able to redeploy immediately.

    Most of the assets for BlackBerry are fungible. So we'll be able to move them around, but that will take a little bit of time. And then we just have an overhead structure for a relationship of this magnitude, and it will take us time to figure out how to redeploy that and/or get rid of some of those resources. So again, the bar we showed on Slide 13, I believe that's a reasonable to slightly conservative look. If you can imagine, we've acted on this in the last few days, and we felt it was important to communicate to the investor community where our thoughts were at. And with that, I'll turn it over to Forbes and he can talk a little bit about the charges.
    and

    If I look at the $0.30 or so of earnings decline related to BlackBerry, and I know there's a lot of moving parts, but I just want -- does that assume no revenue from that customer in fiscal '14? Because it looks like a lot of lost income. If I convert that to operating income, it's over $80 million, which is almost a 4% margin if you assume all of the $2 billion in revenue goes away, and that's the higher margin than we would have assumed for that business historically. I know there's some negative leverage there, but I just wanted to get a sense. Are you assuming all the revenue goes away when you talk about a $0.30 decline?

    Mark T. Mondello - Chief Executive Officer and Director
    Brian, it's Mark. We haven't gotten through that yet for modeling purposes. We were conservative. We felt like that was an appropriate communication at this point with what we know. The -- so we don't know what the revenue is going to be. We modeled conservative revenue. I wouldn't say it's 0 for the fiscal year, but it's small. And I would tell you that the red bar on Slide 13 is a combination of lost income as well as the deleveraging of some significant scale in assets and a whole bunch of deleveraging in people.

    Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL): Jabil Circuit Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

    People can decide for themselves what they think that means.
    09-27-13 08:59 AM
  6. Komoto's Avatar
    They still should give comparable accounting figures from quarter to quarter if they have changed methods so investors can make the transition.

    I don't see that anywhere.

    As for Prem, he is neither savior or devil, he is here to make the m maximum return for his shareholders plain and simple.

    Sadly despite it being a bargain, iin my opinion of course, I don't think we will see other successful bids here. Prem is increased the driving seat. He may give this away for 15 plus but I don't see offers coming in that high.

    Very interesting.

    Posted via CB10
    rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    09-27-13 09:00 AM
  7. jmehta22's Avatar
    *OFF TOPIC*

    Holy s*** look at $HALO go! Need more stocks like this one to cover up my BBRY losses
    09-27-13 09:04 AM
  8. fin2007's Avatar
    Going back to the hardware for a minute, this is from Jabel's earnings call and while that has been quoted, nobody seems to have done this bit:




    and
    Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL): Jabil Circuit Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

    People can decide for themselves what they think that means.
    BBRY ordered too many components from suppliers, the writedonw ($900M), say average cost per unit is $300, that is 3M Z10, with the current selling rate, it would take them another 2 qtrs to sell.
    09-27-13 09:04 AM
  9. mastermike87's Avatar
    *OFF TOPIC*

    Holy s*** look at $HALO go! Need more stocks like this one to cover up my BBRY losses
    6% ain't bad eh? Lol

    Posted via CB10
    09-27-13 09:07 AM
  10. fin2007's Avatar
    The above parts you mentioned have value and are already reflected in the balance sheet (except the subscribers). Watsa knows this and is playing the rules in his favor.

    Insider->Strategic Alternatives->Change revenue recognition->Earnings warning->LOI

    Watsa has played it beautifully. You have to admire the Devil.

    Next week's M&D analysis will be interesting as it should show a comparison between old revenue method and the new one.
    agree.
    09-27-13 09:08 AM
  11. jmehta22's Avatar
    6% ain't bad eh? Lol

    Posted via CB10
    6% just in the last half hour bud if you look at last few days its up almost 20%!

    Make that 12% in the last hour!!
    Last edited by jmehta22; 09-27-13 at 09:26 AM.
    09-27-13 09:09 AM
  12. cgk's Avatar
    BBRY ordered too many components from suppliers, the writedonw ($900M), say average cost per unit is $300, that is 3M Z10, with the current selling rate, it would take them another 2 qtrs to sell.
    I have not found a definitive answer for what Jabil does for Blackberry - some have suggested that they are actually doing the end manufacturing? anyone know?
    09-27-13 09:21 AM
  13. heymaggie's Avatar
    My take is that nothing terrible and new was learned from the earnings report so the share price will reflect a little bit of relief. The market has discounted the value of the $9 Prem-ium appropriately. A lot of bad news seems to be already priced in. I see more upside than downside at this price.
    09-27-13 09:27 AM
  14. njblackberry's Avatar
    I see more upside than downside at this price.
    All depends on how the Fairfax due diligence goes (they can walk away with no penalty) or if another bidder appears.
    If Fairfax walks away (or drops the price) and there is no new bidder, the stock will continue to slide.
    09-27-13 09:48 AM
  15. g120's Avatar
    Any news on HALO to account for the jump? Or did everyone here just sell BBRY and jumped into HALO

    Was a new thread opened to discuss halo? Does anyone know where?

    Thanks



    6% just in the last half hour bud if you look at last few days its up almost 20%!

    Make that 12% in the last hour!!
    09-27-13 09:49 AM
  16. JonCBK's Avatar
    Also think BB10 hardware is done, they might ride bbOS in developing markets for a while longer and reap the declining service revenue though.
    While it isn't popular, I think the QWERTY keyboard bbry will exist as a niche product for a while. I still just see too many of those legacy devices. By next year or the year afterwards, it will be cheap enough to make a BB10 qwerty so that there is no point in maintaining the BB7 devices. Note that there hasn't been a write off of the Q10.
    09-27-13 09:53 AM
  17. JonCBK's Avatar
    BBRY ordered too many components from suppliers, the writedonw ($900M), say average cost per unit is $300, that is 3M Z10, with the current selling rate, it would take them another 2 qtrs to sell.
    And what price will it take to keep the current sell rate going for another two quarters? On contract the Z10 is already a free phone.
    danprown likes this.
    09-27-13 09:56 AM
  18. ankush77's Avatar
    the support ends here
    09-27-13 09:58 AM
  19. leafs123's Avatar
    I'm gonna guess that you guys know about $HALO from M8. Good thing that guy doesn't know anything and is a fraud.
    abouthsu, jmehta22, g120 and 10 others like this.
    09-27-13 10:03 AM
  20. Gekko's Avatar
    time for a new thread -

    I support HALO and I buy shares !

    i wonder how that one will end?
    danprown likes this.
    09-27-13 10:04 AM
  21. m0de25's Avatar
    time for a new thread -

    I support HALO and I buy shares !

    i wonder how that one will end?
    Probably with some people hijacking it.
    09-27-13 10:11 AM
  22. slipstream89's Avatar
    lmao its so pathetic when you need to make a new account to troll so people don't know who you are
    09-27-13 10:12 AM
  23. W Hoa's Avatar
    Disclaimer
    Please take the following under advisement. Do your own due diligence. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell BBRY. I currently have no a position in BBRY shares but offer this information as part of the discourse only. I, or my family, may take have taken a position in BBRY in the next last 72 hours.


    BBRY beats the street

    Actual vs. Wall St. Expectations: BlackBerry Limited reported adjusted EPS loss of $0.47 per share. By that measure, the company beat the mean analyst estimate of $-0.49.

    Sorry, I couldn't not do it.
    09-27-13 10:15 AM
  24. cgk's Avatar
    Probably with some people hijacking it.

    And endless fighting over charts?
    danprown likes this.
    09-27-13 10:16 AM
  25. Gekko's Avatar
    lmao its so pathetic when you need to make a new account to troll so people don't know who you are
    maybe they were banned by an overzealous moderator prodded by overzealous fanboys and thus have no choice in order to participate in this discussion?
    09-27-13 10:16 AM
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