View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. cjcampbell's Avatar
    20% is still a terrible outcome - of the sort that people here were claiming only two weeks ago would be impossible.
    CGK...I'll use this as a supporting example of my previous statement.... Although I don't like the sentiment, there is no poster called out. Hell, after Monday when the LOI was submitted, I wouldn't have thought it would be trading at these levels. The 8.80 area following the halt made sense to me so I would fall in the camp that thought this wouldn't happen.
    anon1727506 and m1a1mg like this.
    09-25-13 01:28 PM
  2. anon1727506's Avatar
    you are getting ahead of yourself, and it takes two to tango. why would the BOD accept a lower priced deal? and a low price is NOT going to help Prem since he is not planning on adding shares anyways
    Because they have no other OPTIONS....

    If BB revenues don't cover their expenses, then they only have how ever long their cash reserves last.

    If their isn't something done to stabilize the company - they will loose even more device and service customers, which will eat further into their reserves.

    A lower price mean that Fairfax pays less to buyout the remaining shares they don't own.
    m1a1mg and Etios like this.
    09-25-13 01:29 PM
  3. cgk's Avatar
    CGK...I'll use this as a supporting example of my previous statement.... Although I don't like the sentiment, there is no poster called out. Hell, after Monday when the LOI was submitted, I wouldn't have thought it would be trading at these levels. The 8.80 area following the halt made sense to me so I would fall in the camp that thought this wouldn't happen.

    Well to be fair, I am similar to you - I originally thought there was more value in the enterprise services/side and thought we might see a bid at a decent price but it seems I'm wrong about that.
    Last edited by cgk; 09-25-13 at 01:43 PM.
    cjcampbell and anon1727506 like this.
    09-25-13 01:32 PM
  4. BergerKing's Avatar
    Y'all know bickering will be cleaned up. Back to the matters at hand.
    09-25-13 01:34 PM
  5. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Y'all know bickering will be cleaned up. Back to the matters at hand.
    Thanks BK but you deleted CGK's last post and it was not a bicker..lol
    BergerKing likes this.
    09-25-13 01:36 PM
  6. cgk's Avatar
    I know I know.. membership of crackberry is a terrible metric but surely the fact that the q5 area is so dead adds to the idea that it was simply DOA? I think we will see another write-off next quarter.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.jpg
    09-25-13 01:38 PM
  7. tiziano27's Avatar
    The WSJ article is a bomb. It It's correct the situation is really dark.

    So, if I understood correctly It's not Fairfax buying BlackBerry. They are creating this new entity using their 10% of BB shares, pension funds will add $1b in cash taking 66% of the ownership of the entity. And this entity will ask +$3b in debt.

    If that is the case, then Watsa is doing the same job the BoD has been doing for the last year, he's trying to sell the 90% of company. In this case Watsa is trying to sell the company to the pension funds and the investment banks that will take the assets as warranties to issue the debt. Fairfax is not increasing their share in BlackBerry, but is increasing its risk because key assets are warranty for the debt.

    But, why would pension funds buy BlackBerry at $9 when everybody else is selling at that price and none of the other players in the industry is interested at that price level? That would be pretty crazy stuff to do. So rumors are if pension funds aren't crazy enough Watsa will use a bridge loan, that is use BB cash to buy the company, and that increase the risk a lot, he would have to give a lot more as warranty for the debt.
    Watsa has to 'sell' really good the assets of BlackBerry to the banks to get +$3b in debt, a much better job than the committee has done.

    Lets say 5 weeks later there is no better offer, why would Watsa make his offer firm? He can retract with any excuse, the stock would go to 6 or less and he can make another offer after that. With a lower price he needs a less debt, less warranty for banks, less risk for himself and the pension funds.
    Last edited by tiziano27; 09-25-13 at 02:03 PM. Reason: grammar
    09-25-13 01:38 PM
  8. Elite1's Avatar
    Thanks BK but you deleted CGK's last post and it was not a bicker..lol
    I put it back now. Thanks for pointing that out.
    09-25-13 01:42 PM
  9. BergerKing's Avatar
    Guess I tapped one too many posts. *shrugs* Oops.
    09-25-13 01:49 PM
  10. Gekko's Avatar
    i saw $8.04 go by. i think we could see a 7 handle today. what do the fancy charts say?
    Gesig Boek likes this.
    09-25-13 01:50 PM
  11. OMGitworks's Avatar
    we are one halt away from a 20% higher or lower share price. so, at this stage the share price is mostly noise. but it sure and understandably scares people to no end.
    I don't disagree with that. The problem is for any new investor is that the 20% upside doesn't even get you back to the $10.25 when it was halted on Friday. Wading thru the pre-announcement news, BBM fiasco and the uncertainty of BBRY makes it hard for me to imagine anyone committing new money to BBRY right now. Wihtout new money the stock price languishes and then the $9 offer becomes less and less likely. In other words, I agree, generally with your 20% swing on news either way, I just (IMHO) think the odds of a 20% downward swing outweigh the chances of a 20% upward swing by 2 or 3 to 1.

    I am going to stop posting now. I realize I am being too negative, but hope my posts have some value and that it isn't seen as trolling. I want to be positive, but I just can't so I will keep my keyboard quiet for a while....
    09-25-13 01:50 PM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Even after the mods come in and clean up, you make a taunting post... wow.

    EDIT - This was not directed at OMGitworks
    morganplus8, OMGitworks and take99 like this.
    09-25-13 01:52 PM
  13. jh07's Avatar
    Well it just went down another 5%, BlackBerry is bleeding to death. Fairfax won't buy it at $9,

    Posted via CB10
    09-25-13 01:52 PM
  14. silversun10's Avatar
    20% is still a terrible outcome - of the sort that people here were claiming only two weeks ago would be impossible.
    my point was, things can change on a dime, and any deal is set in negotiations between parties.
    the stock market price is therefore mostly noise.
    retail investors are now caught in a poker game between the parties, not a good place to be.
    now you need balls of steel if you want to participate in this poker game.
    this now has absolutely nothing to do with investing anymore.
    09-25-13 01:53 PM
  15. Reed Richards's Avatar
    Why did the Board accept the $9 offer? Could be a few reasons:

    1. They believe the future looks bleak, and they feel they will be better off going private. And there was no other company willing to buy BlackBerry as a whole.

    2. They actually have some hope in the future, but realized that they needed to quell some of the negative talk, and fast. Even if their restructure was going to set them on a good path, they still need to survive the immediate future. The lousy earnings, the failure of xBBM's launch, and analysts with knives out threatened to scare away too many customers in the short term. Setting up this life raft makes it look like, hey, here is someone who knows us well, sees values in us, and will keep the company *intact*. In other words, to change the conversation to "hey, BlackBerry does have value", and "BlackBerry is not going away".

    I think Scenario 1 is more likely, but I guess we'll find out on Friday and thereafter.
    Last edited by Reed Richards; 09-25-13 at 02:37 PM. Reason: My grammer was lousy, sorry!
    m1a1mg likes this.
    09-25-13 01:55 PM
  16. Gekko's Avatar
    Why did the Board accept the $9 offer? Could be a few reasons:

    1. They believe the future looks bleak, and they feel they will be better off going private. And there was no other company willing to buy BlackBerry as a whole.

    2. They actually have some hope in the future, but realized that they needed to quell some of the negative talk, and fast. Even if their restructure was going to set them on a good path, they still need to survive the immediate future. The lousy earnings, the failure of xBBM's launch, and analysts with knives out threatened to scare away too many customers in the short term. Setting up this life raft makes it look like, hey, here is someone who knows us well, sees values in us, and will keep the company as a *intact*. In other words, to change the conversation to "hey, BlackBerry does have value", and "BlackBerry is not going away".

    I think Scenario 1 is more likely, but I guess we'll find out on Friday and thereafter.

    So in one scenario.
    Scenario 3 - the Board knows (as it appears does the market) that Watsa's bid is sham bid - but they can use it as a "stalking horse" -

    But so far, none of the other potential investors have been disclosed. Fairfax is not expected to contribute more than its existing stake and has left itself the option of exiting after reviewing BlackBerry's books and operation.

    "I don't think people see it as a real bid," said Eric Jackson of hedge fund Ironfire Capital, who closed a small position in BlackBerry after its June earnings report. "It wasn't a firm offer and (Fairfax Chief Executive) Prem (Watsa) can walk away from the deal at any time with no penalty."

    Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu said he doubted financial sponsors would be comfortable with $3 billion of debt, given the only collateral BlackBerry could offer is its patent portfolio, which he valued between $800 million and $1.5 billion.

    "We believe the Fairfax initiative is unlikely to come to fruition and see the next valuation floor for the stock at $5," he wrote in a note to clients.

    If it falls short of raising the equity to help finance the bid, the Globe said Fairfax intends to arrange a short-term bridge loan that could be repaid with BlackBerry's cash holdings of about $2.6 billion.

    "Prem Watsa has to come up with other interested parties and to me it's a pretty unappetizing deal," said Barry Schwartz, portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services in Toronto, which does not own BlackBerry shares.

    "It would be more appetizing if Prem was putting up more of his own cash to make the deal so it makes you wonder what's going on," he said.

    But rating agency Fitch warned that a further concentration of Fairfax's capital in BlackBerry could have a negative impact on its rating of the insurer. Moody's had earlier said the bid was credit negative for Fairfax because moving its public stake into a private deal reduces liquidity.


    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101062792
    rodan01 and notfanboy like this.
    09-25-13 02:06 PM
  17. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Well it just went down another 5%, BlackBerry is bleeding to death. Fairfax won't buy it at $9,

    Posted via CB10
    I agree, I do not think he will be able to pull the money together to make the $9 deal. It looks like it could be much lower, maybe not at all.
    09-25-13 02:07 PM
  18. the_sleuth's Avatar
    $3 billion debt is just a rumor, it's most likely to be over $1 Billion. So using rule of thumb 4x EBITDA (Cash flow), then for $1 Billion in debt, BlackBerry would be required to generate roughly $250 million EBITDA annually (deal could be done). Personally I view the $3 billion debt too high. Either the investors have to increase equity or the $9 per share will be lowered. For the current deal to work, then Friday's ER will have to show stable and strong EBITDA.

    The WSJ article is a bomb. It It's correct the situation is really dark.

    So, if I understood correctly It's not Fairfax buying BlackBerry. They are creating this new entity using their 10% of BB shares, pension funds will add $1b in cash taking 66% of the ownership of the entity. And this entity will ask +$3b in debt.

    If that is the case, then Watsa is doing the same job the BoD has being doing for the last year, he's trying to sell the company. In this case Watsa is trying to sell the company to the pension funds and the investment banks that will take the assets as warranties to issue the debt. Fairfax is not increasing their share in BlackBerry, but is increasing its risk because key assets are warranty for the debt.

    But, why would pension funds buy BlackBerry at $9 when everybody else is selling at that price and none of the other players in the industry is interested at that price level? That would be pretty crazy stuff to do. So rumors are if pension funds aren't crazy enough Watsa will use a bridge loan, that is use BB cash to buy the company, and that increase the risk a lot, he would have to give a lot more as warranty for the debt.
    Watsa has to 'sell' really good the assets of BlackBerry to the banks to get +$3b in debt, a much better job than the committee has done.

    Lets say 5 weeks later there is no better offer, why would Watsa make his offer firm? He can retract with any excuse, the stock would go to 6 or less and he can make another offer after that. With a lower price he needs a less debt, less warranty for banks, less risk for himself and the pension funds.
    Last edited by the_sleuth; 09-25-13 at 03:25 PM. Reason: fix typo
    09-25-13 02:08 PM
  19. jrwb6e's Avatar
    After Friday's report, Fairfax might be able to finance the deal between $6 to $7 a share with all the liquidable cash on hand.
    09-25-13 02:13 PM
  20. peter9477's Avatar
    I feel the need to point out to some people (many?) that "the board accepted the offer" is misleading.

    The board does NOT decide whether a deal will get done here. You do, I do... the shareholders still have to vote. The board is merely holding up one deal as their "approved" one, for what would be the subject of such a vote.

    I doubt that Prem will find enough to agree to a lesser deal than $9. If he pulls out of the $9 offer, there may be no sale at all. Is that going to satisfy him?
    09-25-13 02:17 PM
  21. acdne's Avatar
    After Friday's report, Fairfax might be able to finance the deal between $6 to $7 a share with all the liquidable cash on hand.
    the $9 price was agreed with both sides knowing full well how dismal the quarter was, so Friday's report won't change anything.
    09-25-13 02:18 PM
  22. greggebhardt's Avatar
    the $9 price was agreed with both sides knowing full well how dismal the quarter was, so Friday's report won't change anything.
    Fairfax can pull out of the $9 deal.
    09-25-13 02:22 PM
  23. jrwb6e's Avatar
    the $9 price was agreed with both sides knowing full well how dismal the quarter was, so Friday's report won't change anything.
    When all the numbers are released on Friday, the market could be more discouraged that Fairfax will find financing at $9 per share, further driving down the SP. It is a possibility you need to consider. The last thing BBRY shareholders need to be doing is groupthink.
    09-25-13 02:23 PM
  24. silversun10's Avatar
    Fairfax can pull out of the $9 deal.
    that would defeat the purpose of his deal
    09-25-13 02:24 PM
  25. jrwb6e's Avatar
    that would defeat the purpose of his deal
    It's a tentative offer with a lot of strings attached. You can hardly call it a deal.
    09-25-13 02:25 PM
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