View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. greggebhardt's Avatar
    The Biggest rip off in corporate history....wait for a horrible news and then throw a ridiculous price....i am not selling any stock.

    Posted via CB10
    sorry but it is not near the worst.
    gg22 likes this.
    09-25-13 09:41 AM
  2. anon1727506's Avatar
    About patents valuation. Interesting material. Pro and cons, as usual. Make your own mind.
    Value of BlackBerry
    So an expert says they are worth $800 Million to $1.5 Billion. I've watched enough Pawn Stars to know that the best offer you will get is half of the low end of the experts guess, to leave room for the "house" to make money.
    danprown likes this.
    09-25-13 09:46 AM
  3. johnyblaze's Avatar
    Where are people getting $5 Billion for xBBM? Its free with no monetization at all at the moment, sure they could stuff ads in there but would people really stick around when there are so many great add free messaging apps out there?

    And even if people don't run off, its freaking hard to make money in mobile ads, Twitter is estimated to make less than $600 million this year WITH 500 million users!
    09-25-13 09:52 AM
  4. fin2007's Avatar
    Where are people getting $5 Billion for xBBM? Its free with no monetization at all at the moment, sure they could stuff ads in there but would people really stick around when there are so many great add free messaging apps out there?

    And even if people don't run off, its freaking hard to make money in mobile ads, Twitter is estimated to make less than $600 million this year WITH 500 million users!

    donot try to argue vs. a fan.

    Right now the 3 big assets are cash/patents/service.
    but it is hard to value the last 2.
    09-25-13 09:58 AM
  5. cgk's Avatar
    So an expert says they are worth $800 Million to $1.5 Billion. I've watched enough Pawn Stars to know that the best offer you will get is half of the low end of the experts guess, to leave room for the "house" to make money.
    In the UK, we have a show I love called "Four rooms" - there are four rooms and in each is a dealer who you try to get to make you an offer but once you leave a room you can't reenter it - the contestants are hilarious:

    "This is a painting of Prince Charles and Diana that my wife painted, I want 20,000 for it"

    I will offer you 20.
    09-25-13 10:01 AM
  6. OMGitworks's Avatar
    BINGO. They won't lose. Sum of parts is more than analysts are adding it up to. Everyone leaves the 1B in property and other illiquid assets out of the sum. No one is adding $ for BBM-x which could be between 1B and 5B ....release it and watch is grow to 200M in a few months and see what valudation they give it. Shutting down hardware and paying severance will be about half the cash on the balance sheet (1.3 of 2.6B). $9 looks like a bargain and I'm sure someone will pay it....
    But they could lose, there are no guarantees, otherwise plenty of other bidders or hedge funds would be surfacing to make bids. BBM having a billion dollar valuation is a pipe dream right now. They can't even get a clean launch. 5 Billion is almost out of the question. It may happen but no Bank or buyer in the world would count on that. I think it will go nowhere with Andriod and iphone users but it might. Counting on any valuation in the billions seems crazy to me right now.. We all need to deal with the here and now realities, not pie in the sky hopes.

    My unsolicited advice (act on your own thoughts and at your own peril, not mine!) is to watch the market and especially the options market. All of us here pay a lot of attention to BBRY but those guys have real horsepower and info and when they put their money up, there is usually a reason. Right now they are SERIOUSLY discounting even PW's very low offer. I am hoping for the best, but to my little pin brain, it just keeps getting worse and worse for BBRY. I was out at $10.25 and into HALO around $9.10 so I have no dog left in the fight. Continued GLTA!
    anon1727506 and gg22 like this.
    09-25-13 10:01 AM
  7. cgk's Avatar
    Where are people getting $5 Billion for xBBM? Its free with no monetization at all at the moment, sure they could stuff ads in there but would people really stick around when there are so many great add free messaging apps out there?

    And even if people don't run off, its freaking hard to make money in mobile ads, Twitter is estimated to make less than $600 million this year WITH 500 million users!
    Hard to actually value BBM as the completely bodged launch suggests that there might be underlying issues we are not aware of.
    danprown likes this.
    09-25-13 10:02 AM
  8. peter9477's Avatar
    Where are people getting $5 Billion for xBBM? Its free with no monetization at all at the moment, sure they could stuff ads in there but would people really stick around when there are so many great add free messaging apps out there?

    And even if people don't run off, its freaking hard to make money in mobile ads, Twitter is estimated to make less than $600 million this year WITH 500 million users!
    Since when does the valuation of a company like this depend on the current revenue? Learn To Love An Insane Twitter Valuation And The Mania To Come - Forbes
    09-25-13 10:02 AM
  9. anon1727506's Avatar
    The other discussion was whether the US Government would step in based on national security. I have no idea, but it is worth mentioning.
    ? Pure speculation and hope...

    There are fewer than 1 Million US Employees using BlackBerry's at this point... many departments and agencies have already moved on to other platforms. This will just be a push for those other agencies to look very quickly for alternatives. As to security... don't think TOP SECRET stuff has ever been allowed on mobile devices anyway....

    BlackBerry is a Canadian Company that offers services and products, that at this point are available in other ways (maybe still not as good - but good enough?) from US Companies. If the US Government were to publicly step in... they would be stepping into a pile of "meadow muffins".
    09-25-13 10:04 AM
  10. Reed Richards's Avatar
    Yeah, the monetization of xBBM is a question, and I'm not going to throw a dollar value on, say, 200 million users. However, in addition to ads, BlackBerry could charge for conducting transactions via BBM (BBM Money), or for premium video and conferencing features.

    And in my personal opinion, and from what I've heard, the other messaging apps are not "great". Usable, of course, but there is an overall weakness in the field that BlackBerry could exploit. Google Hangouts and Skype, the one I know best, are lackluster. Haven't heard great things about WhatsApp and WeChat.

    Now, sure... will BlackBerry actually succeed in carrying this out? With all of the other stuff going on at the company, I don't feel confident right now. The potential is there though.
    abouthsu, Randeman and bungaboy like this.
    09-25-13 10:04 AM
  11. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Since when does the valuation of a company like this depend on the current revenue? Learn To Love An Insane Twitter Valuation And The Mania To Come - Forbes
    One company is growing leaps and bounds every month, the other is not. The market only cares about the future not the past.
    09-25-13 10:06 AM
  12. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    brutal....
    09-25-13 10:15 AM
  13. sparkaction's Avatar
    Sorry guys. I just sold half my position.

    Albeit I have been absolutely wrong with this stock so maybe this is a contrary an indicator. GL.
    09-25-13 10:19 AM
  14. cgk's Avatar
    What happens in the scenario that the PW bid falls to pieces and nobody else moves in?
    09-25-13 10:21 AM
  15. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    What happens in the scenario that the PW bid falls to pieces and nobody else moves in?
    stock goes to .20
    09-25-13 10:22 AM
  16. Randeman's Avatar
    Why would anybody submit another offer before Friday's ER?
    For that matter, I would also want to wait until xBBM was up and running. They have to deliver before it can be valued properly.
    Perhaps we'll see Microsoft, Sami and others hiding in the wings at the ER, asking their own questions.
    09-25-13 10:22 AM
  17. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Fairfax and Watsa are in the driver seat. It's very telling that BOD did not insist on large penalty fee if Fairfax Consortium walks away from LOI. There is very high risk here. Without rival bids, then shareholders are at the mercy of Watsa et al. This is reflected in the SP. $9 is a cap on SP. Without rival bids. BBRY could go lower.

    If earnings release has more negative details, then the pension plans could make it difficult for Watsa to secure financing. There could be potentially a press release at 3 pm or news on Bloomberg that Watsa is having difficulty securing financing. Driving BBRY lower again. Then on Monday, there could be potential news, Watsa able to secure financing if LOI lowered to $7 or $8.

    The above scenario is complete speculation on my part but it illustrates that the current process is fraught with risk for small shareholders without rival bids. Watsa is not a friend to current shareholders. He will drive a hard bargain with BOD in the absence of rival bids.

    CJ raises an interesting point about this not being a pressure sales situation. I've been wondering about Friday's earnings call, and what we will hear about forward guidance.

    If the next quarter projects as negative, even with the tremendous cost-cutting, I would think that the stock will tank worse... the market would probably think that more negative quarters would lead Watsa to lower his bid, or rescind it altogether. I'd also doubt that there would be other bids for the company as a whole. If forward guidance is actually decently positive, it could take the pressure off of BlackBerry to do any sort of deal. I think the odds of that are slim, but they are not zero.

    I also want to hear about when xBBM will be released, and plans for expanding it. Would be a nice asset to tout in other potential deals.
    bondary and gg22 like this.
    09-25-13 10:23 AM
  18. gohan_bcc's Avatar
    I'd put the value of x-BBM at 0 and so will anyone buying it up.

    They can't even get it to work and it's already shown it is very open to flaws. That will takeout all value in a product.

    Could x-BBM be worth something, I always argued it could. But that requires proven success and an actual product. BlackBerry **** the bed hard on a HUGE opportunity.
    09-25-13 10:25 AM
  19. OMGitworks's Avatar
    brutal....
    Hang in there Kid, you are obviously a bright person (despite you investment in BBRY and have with an outgoing personality. That is a good and rare combination and will led to success, even if the world is giving a hassle at the moment.
    Chris2J, Randeman, cgk and 9 others like this.
    09-25-13 10:27 AM
  20. cgk's Avatar
    BlackBerry has confirmed to Pocket-lint that it will not be launching any more BB10 devices beyond the four that it already has available in its current fiscal year which ends in March.

    The confirmation confirms what BlackBerry previously said in a recent statement, that it would focus on four prosumer devices as it tries to battle the more pressing problems at hand.

    Although cagey in the initial statement issued last week, BlackBerry has confirmed to Pocket-lint those four devices will be the BlackBerry Z30, BlackBerry Z10, BlackBerry Q10, BlackBerry Q5.
    BlackBerry: No new BB10 devices till March - Pocket-lint


    The end-game for hardware is in sight, they will run down inventory and that will be that for hardware - anyone who thinks there will be a new device after march... well..
    09-25-13 10:27 AM
  21. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Well, 8 bux and I'll be out. We'll see peeps. Biggest financial mistake thus far, live and learn...
    09-25-13 10:31 AM
  22. silversun10's Avatar
    Well, 8 bux and I'll be out. We'll see peeps. Biggest financial mistake thus far, live and learn...
    nobody has only profits...
    Reed Richards, rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    09-25-13 10:36 AM
  23. ADGrant's Avatar
    What happens in the scenario that the PW bid falls to pieces and nobody else moves in?
    My guess is the stock falls below $8 and the board keep looking. Someone will then come in with a bid below $8.
    09-25-13 10:37 AM
  24. danprown's Avatar
    So you are saying that the $9 is actually a cap, not a floor for Watsa and now he will try to get it for as low as he can? Overplay any negative news, postpone financing until last minute, etc.?

    Fairfax and Watsa are in the driver seat. It's very telling that BOD did not insist on large penalty fee if Fairfax Consortium walks away from LOI. There is very high risk here. Without rival bids, then shareholders are at the mercy of Watsa et al. This is reflected in the SP. $9 is a cap on SP. Without rival bids. BBRY could go lower.

    If earnings release has more negative details, then the pension plans could make it difficult for Watsa to secure financing. There could be potentially a press release at 3 pm or news on Bloomberg that Watsa is having difficulty securing financing. Driving BBRY lower again. Then on Monday, there could be potential news, Watsa able to secure financing if LOI lowered to $7 or $8.

    The above scenario is complete speculation on my part but it illustrates that the current process is fraught with risk for small shareholders without rival bids. Watsa is not a friend to current shareholders. He will drive a hard bargain with BOD in the absence of rival bids.
    09-25-13 10:40 AM
  25. lcjr's Avatar
    nobody has only profits...
    That's the smartest thing I've heard in here today. lol. My lessons learned included not diversifying and having all by investments in one company, along with placing devotion/loyalty to a company over sound investment strategies. I've fixed both of those issues as of yesterday. That being said, there is still to much unknown to count BBRY out. I always said they would be better off doing only software and here we go. I'm waiting to see how they plan to move forward and if they don't go private I may invest again in their software. We'll see.
    09-25-13 10:44 AM
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