View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. spiller's Avatar
    Alright . . . long time lurker, first time poster. My credibility to be part of this thread is that I have accumulated a few thousand shares between January and June 27th, obviously being bitten by the June 28th disaster that hit a lot of us. I am a long time lover of BlackBerry, actually worked for them during school before moving to the Bay Area. I think what motivated me to finally join this thread is how deep this blow was . . . June hurt, but this time, I was ready. I had a sell order in place for next Wednesday (assuming BBM and acquisition news wasn't substantial), and I was going to sell at least half, if not my whole position, and average down as the earnings was expected to be a disaster. Then they had to go ahead and announce this news 1 week before earnings. I have never seen an earnings adjustment/warning only 1 week before ER before . . . normally they are mid-quarter, because that is when the company realizes things are not going as expected, and are legally required to disclose that it will be a bad quarter. There is no excuse for BlackBerry to wait until 1 week before ER to release how drastically they missed guidance.

    Anyway, the point of my post is this. The optimist in me says . . . a deal must be in the works, they forced x-BBM, z30 and this earnings warning all within a 3 day window. Why would they do this, unless there was a deal in the works?

    Playing the devils advocate (as we all have to do, if we are realistic), maybe BlackBerry received no reasonable offers and decided the only way to move forward as a company was to bite the bullet this quarter, and slim down the company to move toward profitability. This is a very reasonable approach . . . when you are out of options, cut the fat, focus the business and try to move forward.

    Then I began to think about this more, and the devils advocate approach doesn't seem to make any sense to me. If the purpose is to not sell or make a deal . . . then why the urgency? Why not wait until the ER to unleash all this bad news? This makes me think that there is a VERY serious deal on the table. Though an acquisition deal, definitely not a joint venture or partnership. I feel there must be an acquisition on the table, but the acquiring company did not want the write down or the employees on their books, before signing the deal.

    Either this, or management is just as idiotic as they seem for releasing this info on iPhone launch day, and the day before x-BBM launch.

    I would love to hear what some of the experts of this thread think of my "theory"
    Something must be up. Clean up the books. Write down 1B in inventory that should NOT be a total write off and this is positive net inflow for the buyer, but pushes the SP down so that a 40% premium on $8.50 will be more acceptable to the stock holders than a 20% premium on $10.50.

    My money is on Samsung to buy the whole thing. They get instant access to enterprise, DOD, MDM, xBBM, an amazing OS and they don't have to force Tizen into the market, and instant recognition that BES or BB10.2 is here to stay as they have deep pockets. They could easily fight Window mobile 8 and win 3rd, bring big name apps to the platform with 10.2 supporting Android 4.2.

    They get 2.6B in cash, the purchase commitments on the BB balance sheet can be used either in their other hardware android phones or in new samsung OS (BB10.2) phones so there is no loss.

    My 4 cents.
    09-21-13 10:47 AM
  2. silversun10's Avatar
    Something must be up. Clean up the books. Write down 1B in inventory that should NOT be a total write off and this is positive net inflow for the buyer, but pushes the SP down so that a 40% premium on $8.50 will be more acceptable to the stock holders than a 20% premium on $10.50.

    My money is on Samsung to buy the whole thing. They get instant access to enterprise, DOD, MDM, xBBM, an amazing OS and they don't have to force Tizen into the market, and instant recognition that BES or BB10.2 is here to stay as they have deep pockets. They could easily fight Window mobile 8 and win 3rd, bring big name apps to the platform with 10.2 supporting Android 4.2.

    They get 2.6B in cash, the purchase commitments on the BB balance sheet can be used either in their other hardware android phones or in new samsung OS (BB10.2) phones so there is no loss.

    My 4 cents.
    for a company to have value it has to be profitable, so you have to cut the dead wood first and then you can calculate a value for the company. they just did that. does not mean there is a buyer, but without you cannot offer the company for sale. another way to sell is, sell the pieces, but that would yield a lower price i would think, so this way they are trying to maximize value.
    09-21-13 10:55 AM
  3. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Google now seems to be cleaning up the play store. Only 9 fakes left but 4 of which are new additions from a new dev.
    morganplus8 and sidhuk like this.
    09-21-13 10:57 AM
  4. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    Google now seems to be cleaning up the play store. Only 9 fakes left but 4 of which are new additions from a new dev.
    Seems like some already have a working leaked file for Android.
    09-21-13 11:00 AM
  5. cjcampbell's Avatar
    In other news some of those lineups appear to be staged...

    LA Times
    Wow!! Some people have no scruples.
    09-21-13 11:01 AM
  6. silversun10's Avatar
    Google now seems to be cleaning up the play store. Only 9 fakes left but 4 of which are new additions from a new dev.
    who says BB does not have enough apps? problem they are all at Google Play and they are all BBM's blocking the real thing
    09-21-13 11:02 AM
  7. Reed Richards's Avatar
    If the Z10 has been written down, can BlackBerry distribute them to potential enterprise clients, as part of a BB10 adoption program? I've seen two things as a Z10 owner: One, people who see BB10 on my phone are legitimately impressed by it. Two, my Z10 is the only one I've seen. My one minute demonstration of the phone hasn't been enough to get people to switch. Getting Z10s out there would help, a lot.

    I'm not saying outfit an entire company or department with phones, but send these organizations more than just one demo phone. BlackBerry has taken the hit already, might as well get these phones in the hands of the heavy users. I'm in an area with heavy use of legacy BlackBerries, it would be great to start seeing Z10s around.
    09-21-13 11:05 AM
  8. cgk's Avatar
    If the Z10 has been written down, can BlackBerry distribute them to potential enterprise clients, as part of a BB10 adoption program? I've seen two things as a Z10 owner: One, people who see BB10 on my phone are legitimately impressed by it. Two, my Z10 is the only one I've seen. My one minute demonstration of the phone hasn't been enough to get people to switch. Getting Z10s out there would help, a lot.

    I'm not saying outfit an entire company or department with phones, but send these organizations more than just one demo phone. BlackBerry has taken the hit already, might as well get these phones in the hands of the heavy users. I'm in an area with heavy use of legacy BlackBerries, it would be great to start seeing Z10s around.
    My understanding is that they have already been doing this - they have been effectively giving away z10 devices to corporations in an attempt to get them to take BES and generate some positive press releases.
    Reed Richards likes this.
    09-21-13 11:22 AM
  9. cjcampbell's Avatar
    My understanding is that they have already been doing this - they have been effectively giving away z10 devices to corporations in an attempt to get them to take BES and generate some positive press releases.
    Yes and no. They have seeded a few, or even more than a few, of them but now they have essentially "bought" their inventory. Since they have now been paid for, they can give them away and claim them for tax purposes no? I am guessing on this so if someone can either correct or collaborate, that would be great.
    Reed Richards and sidhuk like this.
    09-21-13 11:36 AM
  10. Gekko's Avatar
    Yes but at this point, right now, they would be so far behind the other established Android OEMs that it won't make a difference. Also last time I checked, HTC is also laying off people.

    Posted via CB10
    using Android is not a panacea for a hardware maker - it is does not guarantee you success - you still have to execute. any problems that HTC has are not the fault of using Android - the problems are because of their own missteps in the running the company.

    i agree with those that say it's too late for BB to switch to Android. i think it's too late period for BB in the hardware business anyway. i would have liked to have seen BB switch a few years ago to Android - and add their own proprietary layer of special sauce/UI skin/security/BBM/apps etc. to the mix along with some of their own hardware design - all the while being 100% compatible with the Android App store. they would have kept many of those customers they lost - and maybe even attracted some new ones. and the could have escaped or at least minimized the "commoditization" of their devices in the Android world by providing their own proprietary layer of value-added. also - think of how much R&D costs and time they would have saved vs. everything that went into BB10. of course, hindsight is 20/20 and nobody knows what would have happened - but in retrospect - this certainly looks like it would have been a better strategy than BB10. but i think arrogance and hubris wouldn't let them do it.
    09-21-13 11:36 AM
  11. greggebhardt's Avatar
    In other news some of those lineups appear to be staged...

    LA Times
    According to Bloomberg Apple has sold a record amount of the new iPhones, lines or not. Setting a new sales record is impressive.
    09-21-13 12:04 PM
  12. silversun10's Avatar
    According to Bloomberg Apple has sold a record amount of the new iPhones, lines or not. Setting a new sales record is impressive.
    yeah and they are all downloading BBM apps today, what you call win/win
    09-21-13 12:22 PM
  13. cgk's Avatar
    According to Bloomberg Apple has sold a record amount of the new iPhones, lines or not. Setting a new sales record is impressive.
    It's not true unless Statcounter says its true.
    09-21-13 12:24 PM
  14. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    It's not true unless Statcounter says its true.
    You didn't mean that did you?
    With comments like this, I can understand why you are on people's ignore lists and called a troll.

    Posted via CB10
    09-21-13 12:28 PM
  15. cjcampbell's Avatar
    It's not true unless Statcounter says its true.
    Oh c'mon man. I don't think anyone here has taken stat counter seriously for quite a while. It's been more of an ongoing point of humour than anything else. That, and it's kinda like sending out the bat signal when we haven't heard from a specific poster for a while. lol
    09-21-13 12:28 PM
  16. cgk's Avatar
    Jesus wept, aren't we even allow the odd joke? Of course I didn't mean that, statcounter is garbage.
    09-21-13 12:29 PM
  17. chrysaurora's Avatar
    I think, Morgan+8 or somebody else mentioned on this thread that it is ILLEGAL for a (publicly traded) company to disclose information to some outsiders first because then these outsiders would be able to take advantage of this information in stock trades.

    So, maybe there is a serious buyer or partner. But before the deal is closed, this potential wants to inspect 'books' and wants to see how things are going this quarter. So... the only way BlackBerry can disclose this information to this potential partner/buyer is by releasing this information to EVERYONE at the same time.

    So, maybe that's why they released all this a week in advance of ER. Maybe by ER, we would see a deal-closed!
    09-21-13 12:30 PM
  18. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Jesus wept, aren't we even allow the odd joke? Of course I didn't mean that, statcounter is garbage.
    As I'm sure you can understand, a few of us are a tad on the defensive after yesterday and the serious influx of drive by posters we had. Some of the humour gets missed and can be interpreted as a jab. That's how I saw it to be honest. Glad that I was wrong.
    09-21-13 12:31 PM
  19. JLagoon's Avatar
    Hi Morgan and OMGitworks:

    I think, the two of you have the most years about the stock market in this forum as far as I know. We know that the stock is not going to $40 anytime soon.

    Nevertheless, I am sure that many, who still hold their shares, and are still in red ranging up to $17 average or more would find your thoughts on the possible scenarios for the company, and its stock price based on your past experience useful.

    The market might not have adjusted to the news with 25 minutes of trading fully, although I could only imagine that the drop in the first 5 minutes would have taken many holders out with stop loss, and leave us with even stronger holders. The chart is out of whack for the next several days or a couple of weeks.

    So, in this type of scenario for a company like Blackberry with what we could possibly know as facts so far; does it make it more attractive for a buy out? Does it make it more attractive for Prem Watsa to take this private? Does it try to survive on its own instead? What are your thoughts on this matter for the retail shareholders here?

    Thank you as always.
    Reed Richards, rarsen and abouthsu like this.
    09-21-13 12:32 PM
  20. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I think, Morgan+8 or somebody else mentioned on this thread that it is ILLEGAL for a (publicly traded) company to disclose information to some outsiders first because then these outsiders would be able to take advantage of this information in stock trades.

    So, maybe there is a serious buyer or partner. But before the deal is closed, this potential wants to inspect 'books' and wants to see how things are going this quarter. So... the only way BlackBerry can disclose this information to this potential partner/buyer is by releasing this information to EVERYONE at the same time.

    So, maybe that's why they released all this a week in advance of ER. Maybe by ER, we would see a deal-closed!
    Any potential suitors that would have contacted BB would have access to the books before this but also have an iron clad NDA.
    09-21-13 12:35 PM
  21. silversun10's Avatar
    I think, Morgan+8 or somebody else mentioned on this thread that it is ILLEGAL for a (publicly traded) company to disclose information to some outsiders first because then these outsiders would be able to take advantage of this information in stock trades.

    So, maybe there is a serious buyer or partner. But before the deal is closed, this potential wants to inspect 'books' and wants to see how things are going this quarter. So... the only way BlackBerry can disclose this information to this potential partner/buyer is by releasing this information to EVERYONE at the same time.

    So, maybe that's why they released all this a week in advance of ER. Maybe by ER, we would see a deal-closed!
    the leaks were turning into a tsunami and so they had to come out with some news, and also the leaks were right on.
    Reed Richards likes this.
    09-21-13 12:44 PM
  22. cgk's Avatar
    Yeah, the WSJ guys were pretty bang on the money, whoever is feeding them information is connected.
    09-21-13 12:47 PM
  23. sidhuk's Avatar
    Funny, BBM is showing up on iOS in North America now before Google Play...a day earlier.

    Posted via CB10
    Under what name it shows up in the app store?
    09-21-13 12:52 PM
  24. take99's Avatar
    According to Bloomberg Apple has sold a record amount of the new iPhones, lines or not. Setting a new sales record is impressive.
    Did I mention or imply anything about sales? Just thought the paid lineup thing was pathetic.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    09-21-13 12:59 PM
  25. Komoto's Avatar
    It does seem strange for them to dump all bad info now.

    I don't understand why they have also changed their revenue recognition. Is this something that has been forced on them, something they. Have chosen or best practice because they are in a tough situation with moving stock?

    Any Canadian chartered accountants around?

    Posted via CB10
    09-21-13 12:59 PM
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