View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. cjmartin's Avatar
    I am no expert, but the media rumours from "people with knowledge of the situation" which has always been right so far, claim BB has been trying to shop the company around for a while now, with no bites, and each month the company of course is proven to be less attractive due to lack of market traction.

    If a serious deal is coming it will be for less than expected, and may even be a "take-under" due to still unrealized losses due to future looming writedowns. They only wrote down the Z10, but do we seriously think the Q10 and Q5 is doing a lot better, not to mention the already overpriced Z30?
    I do agree with you, things are definitely not in a favourable position for the company . . . but the point still stands, why is there the urgency to release this information? Today was basically an Earnings Report but 1 week early. That is the thing I am having the hardest time explaining. It honestly makes no sense for them to release this information now versus next week unless there is an outside influence

    I want the company to do well moving forward . . . but I am a realist. Today was a deep cut to the remaining credibility of BlackBerry. I am not trying to manufacture this theory to pretend there is great upside for the stock in the short term, I am just trying to understand/explain why this information was released today.
    09-21-13 06:30 AM
  2. bungaboy's Avatar
    Adding salt to the wounds . . . . . BBM for Android hasn't been made available yet. Missed their 07:00 launch time!
    Bugmapper and sidhuk like this.
    09-21-13 06:57 AM
  3. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Mid Saturday, only a few in the boxes.
    Some OT sometimes heal .
    Attachment 204031
    Cheers all !

    No kidding that's my Q10 boss !
    And you said we were not the same kind!
    I'm doing similar things. It's grape harvest in the US. I'm setting up my little home winery ready for my kids to crush some grapes to make wine and bottle the batches that I made last year.

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    Posted via CB10
    09-21-13 07:02 AM
  4. Gekko's Avatar
    Adding salt to the wounds . . . . . BBM for Android hasn't been made available yet. Missed their 07:00 launch time!
    why should they start making deadlines now?
    09-21-13 07:07 AM
  5. ADGrant's Avatar
    That makes sense but the no BB7/10 breakdown really scares me. could they really have sold less than 1.5M BB10's?
    I believe they said that most of the sales were BB7.
    09-21-13 07:15 AM
  6. notfanboy's Avatar
    Adding salt to the wounds . . . . . BBM for Android hasn't been made available yet. Missed their 07:00 launch time!
    I checked this morning as well. Often the Play Store has staggered launches depending on geography.
    silversun10 likes this.
    09-21-13 07:17 AM
  7. silversun10's Avatar
    I believe they said that most of the sales were BB7.
    the most important number is what consumers bought that stands at 5.9 million phones. they shipped less phones because retailers had still enough phones on the shelves.
    the numbers are bad, but not as bad as most people seem to read it.
    09-21-13 07:23 AM
  8. ADGrant's Avatar
    I used the ACAD money to buy now and research later, hope it pays off. At $ 8.08/shr it is stupid cheap and now we have exactly the right business model that works.
    How do you know that BB have exactly the right business model that works.
    09-21-13 07:24 AM
  9. silversun10's Avatar
    How do you know that BB have exactly the right business model that works.
    for starters it is cute if you can keep your work and private separate, but what if most consumers don't need that and you still try to sell them that feature? right, they will yawn and walk, as they did.
    so, now back to those that really like and need that feature and all that BB offers.
    09-21-13 07:33 AM
  10. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Pretty good analysis here.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1706...ticle_readmore




    Posted via CB10
    09-21-13 07:35 AM
  11. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Adding salt to the wounds . . . . . BBM for Android hasn't been made available yet. Missed their 07:00 launch time!
    Summer officially ends at 4:44 so they have a few hours to make their deadline. In true BBRY fashion they are pushing it. I just hope it is ready for prime time.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    09-21-13 07:44 AM
  12. notfanboy's Avatar
    the most important number is what consumers bought that stands at 5.9 million phones. they shipped less phones because retailers had still enough phones on the shelves.
    the numbers are bad, but not as bad as most people seem to read it.
    Actually most people think that the numbers are worse than they themselves expected. I am one of those people. Just read around the forums at the shocked reactions to the numbers. Just look at the market reaction. Of the 46 people who participated in the prediction guessing game, at least 90% overestimated BB10 sales.

    So no, most people are justified in thinking the numbers are bad. That's the beauty of the guessing game - a numerical value is assigned to expectations and can be compared to actual results.
    09-21-13 07:47 AM
  13. silversun10's Avatar
    Actually most people think that the numbers are worse than they themselves expected. I am one of those people. Just read around the forums at the shocked reactions to the numbers. Just look at the market reaction. Of the 46 people who participated in the prediction guessing game, at least 90% overestimated BB10 sales.

    So no, most people are justified in thinking the numbers are bad. That's the beauty of the guessing game - a numerical value is assigned to expectations and can be compared to actual results.
    don't argue with your message, but i think you missed the point i was making.
    cjcampbell likes this.
    09-21-13 07:50 AM
  14. notfanboy's Avatar
    don't argue with your message, but i think you missed the point i was making.
    Maybe I did. Can you elaborate on your point?
    09-21-13 07:53 AM
  15. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Folks please take this as a realistic post, no trolling or pushing buttons. Obviously I have no inside info, just experience with the stock market over 25 years.

    BBRY can not and is not announcing these things to make a deal more or less likely. That is highly illegal and would be at least as bad as Pac Crest and the rest.

    BBRY has an obligation to release material information when they get it. I suspect they knew the quarter was going to be a disaster. They began compiling the ER data a few weeks ago and they saw how bad it was. They waited another week or so and when it didn't get better, and saw how bad it was, they had a legal obligation to pre-announce. I seriously doubt the BB10 phones have been written down to zero or that there is much upside hope there. They have to write them down according to accounting principles. Look at what happened with the PB and that is likely to be replayed here. Further write downs could be in order. We will know soon what value they have used, but 0 is unlikely and would be unethical to do. THERE IS NO HIDDEN AGENDA or SILVER LINING here. Please take it for what it is and act as you see fit, but please don't think BBRY is doing this all for ulterior motives or that it isn't very bad for the future of BBRY.

    Lastly, I think apologies to the Wall Street Enquirer, so called are warranted. I don't know why that paper (WSJ) gets bashed here so often. Just because they report negative news doesn't make them bad or wrong. They were right. It is THE daily business paper and has a stellar reputation.

    I am hoping or a big bounce next week so everybody can make up some lost ground. Just please be realistic about what the future holds. The post about holding until $40 made me very worried and the reason I posted. That simply is not happening now. GLTA, I sincerely mean that.
    09-21-13 07:55 AM
  16. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    the most important number is what consumers bought that stands at 5.9 million phones. they shipped less phones because retailers had still enough phones on the shelves.
    the numbers are bad, but not as bad as most people seem to read it.
    Its all very complicated, isnt it.

    For the second quarter, the Company expects to recognize hardware revenue on approximately 3.7 million BlackBerry smartphones. Most of the units recognized are BlackBerry 7 devices, in part because certain BlackBerry 10 devices that were shipped in the quarter will not be recognized until those devices are sold through to end customers. During the second quarter, approximately 5.9 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers, which included shipments made prior to the second quarter and which reduced the Company's inventory in channel.
    Lets break it down.

    During the second quarter, approximately 5.9 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers, which included shipments made prior to the second quarter and which reduced the Company's inventory in channel.
    That 5.9 million is the sell-through number for the quarter, roughly equivalent to Gartner's numbers, of course with mismatched quarters. Last year BB sold 7.9 million smartphones in calender Q2 2012, according to Gartner, so that number is 2 million less, and sales are down YoY despite new models..

    For the second quarter, the Company expects to recognize hardware revenue on approximately 3.7 million BlackBerry smartphones. Most of the units recognized are BlackBerry 7 devices
    Now BB also shipped 3.7 million mainly BB7 devices in the quarter, who's revenue they recognized immediately. I suspect this mainly went to their markets in developing countries like South Africa and Indonesia/Malaysia where they are still doing well. This number is also down from Q1, when it shipped 4.1 million BB7 handsets.

    certain BlackBerry 10 devices that were shipped in the quarter will not be recognized until those devices are sold through to end customers.
    They also shipped an unknown number of BB10 handsets to markets where they had to change their revenue recognition, it is speculated due to an unusually high return rate. The statement makes it explicit the change in revenue recognition only applies to BB10 handsets.

    So basically we still dont have any idea how many BB10 handsets were shipped - It could be 1 million or 10. All we know is that BB cant count on that revenue, presumably due to possible returns from retailers, which we have heard a lot from.
    09-21-13 07:58 AM
  17. OMGitworks's Avatar
    the most important number is what consumers bought that stands at 5.9 million phones. they shipped less phones because retailers had still enough phones on the shelves.
    the numbers are bad, but not as bad as most people seem to read it.
    The problem is that they still had phones on the shelves because they are not selling. So many in fact, that they had to write what they have left down. We still need to know the BB10 #. I think when we do, they will actually be worse than people are reading it right now. I hope I am wrong, but less than 2M or below 1.5M devices would be devastating.
    09-21-13 07:58 AM
  18. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Summer officially ends at 4:44 so they have a few hours to make their deadline.
    If you say 444 in Chinese (Cantonese) and then translate into English, it sounds like die die die. That's why some buildings don't have floor number 4 or rooms with number 4 in them. So I guess it is an appropriate DEADLINE. LOL

    Posted via CB10
    09-21-13 07:59 AM
  19. notfanboy's Avatar
    Good point about the WSJ, or the Wall Street Urinal as it is known in these parts. They weren't rehashing old news, they weren't trying to dampen the Z30 announcement, they sources close to the matter were right after all.

    It's ironic that the same people who take offense when someone besmirches BlackBerry, are also the first to throw rocks at other companies.
    rodan01 and bbmotion like this.
    09-21-13 08:00 AM
  20. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Well, we can "guess" with a high degree of accuracy where those WSJ leaks are coming from...only inside high level cinsultant folks would have that access.
    Now that I have thought about it I also like the idea of the GAAP write down....strong advice by the consultants but proper in my mind...of course next couple quarters the dooms dayers will blame BlackBerry's profits on creative accounting lol.
    I also feel there must have been some internal conflict at high levels for them to wait till now to announce this....TH, where are you?

    In the end it appears the advice they are receiving from their teams of consultants is proper...hard to swallow, but good sound advice.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by Shanerredflag; 09-21-13 at 08:21 AM.
    09-21-13 08:03 AM
  21. Tinomane's Avatar
    Well surprise surprise BBM for Android is late today. Their PR is an absolute nightmare at the moment. So frustrating.
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00000027.png  
    morganplus8 likes this.
    09-21-13 08:14 AM
  22. silversun10's Avatar
    The problem is that they still had phones on the shelves because they are not selling. So many in fact, that they had to write what they have left down. We still need to know the BB10 #. I think when we do, they will actually be worse than people are reading it right now. I hope I am wrong, but less than 2M or below 1.5M devices would be devastating.
    we don't know the phones were not selling(actually like you mentioned later), we know BB overestimated sales and shipped too much inventory
    09-21-13 08:20 AM
  23. leafs123's Avatar
    If BBM lands at 7AM or 10AM, it doesn't matter...it's coming. Already on iOS in New Zealand.

    I also agree with @Shanerredflag on the leaks. The negative articles were spot on, who's leaking this stuff? That's a problem.
    09-21-13 08:30 AM
  24. Gekko's Avatar
    "If BlackBerry only reported its revenue when devices were actually sold to end users, my sense is that in Q1 it sold 4.6 million devices of which 4 million were BB7 devices and 600,000 were BB10 devices. Since the Street was expecting 3 to 4 million BB10 devices in Q1 as read the blogs at the time, investors were disappointed. They may have been even more disappointed if they read that BlackBerry users had bought only 600,000 BB10 units in that quarter."

    600,000 sounds about right. and that's awful!
    09-21-13 08:33 AM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    "If BlackBerry only reported its revenue when devices were actually sold to end users, my sense is that in Q1 it sold 4.6 million devices of which 4 million were BB7 devices and 600,000 were BB10 devices. Since the Street was expecting 3 to 4 million BB10 devices in Q1 as read the blogs at the time, investors were disappointed. They may have been even more disappointed if they read that BlackBerry users had bought only 600,000 BB10 units in that quarter."

    600,000 sounds about right. and that's awful!
    Why? How many did you sell?

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8 likes this.
    09-21-13 08:36 AM
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