View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    ...
    they can just put chris and kevin on their ignore list
    Zero post from them in that thread, no need to ignore.
    P.s: mine is empty.

    Posted via CB10
    OMGitworks likes this.
    08-30-13 09:34 AM
  2. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    No magic number. Yes, up to 5 years (Feb 2006) is still what I believe the time before I can "buy my daughter a nice used car " (but may be more since i've added substantially since Feb 11). If the plan is successful, I believe the valuation of BlackBerry Wil be well above his 2008 (?) valuation, around $120 if my rosy glasses don't distort too much

    I know traders that would virtually kill for a 30% net profit. I'm not in that scale, I'm on the 10x scale.

    I do perfectly know it's - as of date - out of sight and most will think "this guy is just crazy or plain stupid". So were the guys who dropped a few bucks in APPL 10 years ago.

    I can afford to lose these - labor earned - $$. So yeah, I bought shares, as I might have put love money for a startup, and I'm waiting (with some free supporting activism of my own) for the big day.

    $100 party makes you snile ?
    I'm still waiting and no doubt I'll buy some drinks around, ruining mostly my gains. Yeah, this day I'll be king of my wish-dom (no typo here). And I'll dance to death. Oka Hey.

    Posted via CB10
    I am not planing to sell before or after the next ER either. I don't have a hard timeline, but I think that it will take a couple years for BB to come back. I keep an eye on the news to make sure that things are moving along, and they are. I am not an investment expert though, so I could be making a wrong bet here - I am fine with that.
    There is really a fine line between a genius and fool, the reason is because when one is standing on the leading edge of something, there is probability of falling to either side (I have been called a genius at international conferences before, but have also been called a fool - I am fine with that because I know who I am). But the difference between a genius and common people is that the common people are too afraid to get onto the edge.
    08-30-13 09:42 AM
  3. greyw0lf01's Avatar
    Chris article is OK for me, except the last sentence:

    Logic of this kind is plain stupid imho.
    When device A fails, the device B will fail too, because device A has alredy failed. Ask Microsoft/Nokia if this is true.
    I love my Z10, but to be honest, it is not the sexiest device on the market. The Z30 will ship with a better ecosystem, better design (imho), and a better OS. When it is priced aggressively and advertised hard, then it could sell better than the Z10. I don't expect a miracle, and don't know, if they will sell enough, but it's to early to make depressive conclusions.
    I think the argument was Z10 failed, the Q10 failed, the Q5 failed, then it's easier to say the Z30 will fail. I don't necessarily agree, but it gets tough to argue against after a while. MSFT makes a ton of money in other lines so they can afford to keep plowing $$$'s into the phone division, similiar to the Xbox until it works.
    08-30-13 09:44 AM
  4. notfanboy's Avatar
    Chris article is OK for me, except the last sentence:

    Logic of this kind is plain stupid imho.
    When device A fails, the device B will fail too, because device A has alredy failed. Ask Microsoft/Nokia if this is true.

    I love my Z10, but to be honest, it is not the sexiest device on the market. The Z30 will ship with a better ecosystem, better design (imho), and a better OS. When it is priced aggressively and advertised hard, then it could sell better than the Z10. I don't expect a miracle, and don't know, if they will sell enough, but it's to early to make depressive conclusions.
    Bolded part: That's not the only argument they are making though. Framing that argument in a simplistic way is setting up a strawman and knocking it down. Here's the more complete form of the argument.

    Z10 failed to meet expectations. Z30 is an incremental upgrade hardware-wise to the Z10. True, the ecosystem has improved and the OS has improved.
    However the sales of Z30 will also be laboring under the following unfavorable conditions:
    • perceived failure of Z10 and heavily discounted Z10 pricing will impact Z30 perception
    • Z30 will not have even a fraction of the buzz in January when the tech world was eagerly awaiting the launch of the new BBs
    • In January they had the media all to themselves, Z30 launch will be completely buried under Apple, Samsung, and other high profile releases
    • even among the diehard fans in CrackBerry there is disappointment regarding the Z30 specs
    • they will be selling under the cloud of uncertain prospects for the company's future
    • the abandonment of the PlayBook


    It it is priced aggressively and advertised hard, chances will improve. But those two things are what BlackBerry consistently failed at. Let's say even if they break tradition, can they overcome the huge obstacles above? I really can't see it doing better that the Z10. My prediction is that at some point months from now when sales numbers are revealed, we will be back here and the erstwhile Z30 optimists will be using the bullet points I listed above to explain the embarrassing results.
    leafs123, cgk and rodan01 like this.
    08-30-13 09:47 AM
  5. carbon fibre's Avatar
    plasmid_boy,

    Good of you to apologize about the hillbilly thing. My cousin's wife is from Evansville, Ind., she isn't city smart but man is she one nice person. I agree, there might not be much demand for a BlackBerry in Evansville as there is in Toronto or NY., but at least the author pointed out where the data was coming from in the article. And so we might conclude that BlakcBerry phones in that area of the country were a flop, big deal.

    The only other comment in that article was about some unknown executive in Canada, again nothing important there. Chris's CB article was a little strange for him, as was the claim that CB isn't seeing more clicks. I look at it this way, I haven't changed my approach to CB just because I bought a Z10, the simple reason is that I don't have any problems with the phone, the OS or apps. I have over 100 apps, I use my phone all day and I don't have any problems. If I buy the Z30 with BB 10.2 on it, I likely won't have any problems with it either! Much ado about nothing man.

    Many of us feel a little betrayed by Chris's comments but they really should be balanced with all the other times he defends BlackBerry. Let's get back to a BB 10.2 launch and more importantly, the holy grail of launches, the BBM-X launch!!
    Thank you for demonstrating the converse response to negative facts. Minimise/dismiss etc. Also interesting that you feel "betrayed" by someone accepting negative facts.

    Anyway, we all have opinions. I trust yours is genuine and not an attempt at spin.

    Question for you. I am looking forward to cross platform BBM as a multi platform user. Sounds like you are as well (" the holy grail of launches, the BBM-X launch!!"). I don't see significant financial benefit to BBRY in the near term (3-4 quarters) though.

    Possibilities I see are:
    -Brand repair which could result in an uptick of BB10 sales, but I think the hardware sales marketshare haemmorhage is too great for much hope here.
    -Subscription revenue, but the free or a buck a year competitors place some obvious constraints here.
    -Ad revenue? Maybe.
    -An obvious negative is allowing present BlackBerry phone users who are there because of BBM (cheap, lots of BBM contacts etc) to leave for iOS or more likely, Android.

    Why is BBM-X your holy grail?
    gg22 and rodan01 like this.
    08-30-13 09:53 AM
  6. Bugmapper's Avatar
    I woke up this morning to read the comments about Chris and Kevin, and combined it in my mind with the Q10 sales "story", and the emotions that I have felt recently as an investor.

    When I put it all together I kinda feel sorry for Kevin and Chris, and I have a lot more respect for Thorsten. Kevin and Chris (and naturally the entire CB team) are just running (contributing to) a fanboy site and they are under quite a bit more pressure now that I'm sure they ever thought they would experience. Although I admire them both for their success, devotion and honesty, I would not want to trade places with them. I'm sure none of them expected to be in the position they are in now when the started Crackberry.com - and there is no golden parachute for them if this all goes south.

    Thorsten et al. - no way I could do their jobs. It's one thing to be a CEO of a mining company that is going through it's normal cycles and have to temporarily lay off 1/4 of the population of a town to protect the company, but to completely re-organize and re-invigorate an international tech corporation, with all of the world's media and 10 X as much quasi-media and 1000X as many trolls and fanboys screaming and bashing you across the internet EVERY DAY - AROUND THE PLANET - Well that takes some serious determination. Nope, not me - Thorsten can have all of his $56 million.

    So, here I sit, anxiously clutching my few measly shares... but should I be stressed? No way. I have the luxury of being almost completely anonymous and can jump ship in seconds if I decide. There are other people like Kevin and Thor and Chris who put their name, and face and reputation on the line every single day on my behalf even though they've never met me. They can't just pack it up and leave whenever the mood strikes them so, thanks to them and everyone like them here at CB, and thanks to the employees of Blackberry, QNX, TAT and all the other divisions and subsidiaries that make up the Blackberry family. I'll never meet you all, heck I may never meet any of you, but I can see the work you have done and what you have accomplished and I am impressed. As long as you are all working toward the same vision, I will support you however I can.

    A Blackberry shareholder and member of Crackberry.com
    08-30-13 09:54 AM
  7. morganplus8's Avatar
    Thanks M+8 for your commentary. Could you also provide us with the most probable downside to bbry if your forecast does not work out? I was thinking something like a scenario in which there is no buyout or partnership and bbry was forced to grow organically (at the lower end of the scale of subscriber growth) for the next 3 yrs.

    Thanks again and have a good long weekend!
    sparkaction!!

    I would suggest that we are in the quiet period right now, not much coming out of the company and even the press are struggling to say anything worthwhile here. Because of this, I see us bumping along the 3-ema and the 20-ema for a couple of more weeks.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry-august-30-2013-chart.jpg

    This chart shows us that we are finding good support around the $ 10.00 area, we could go lower here but the downside isn't that deep. The general market dictates just how far all stocks can drop so let's not forget that a major correction sinks all boats. My personal take is that our recent lows will hold in the event that the market sells off hard here. The upside looks to be around $ 12.80/shr, which has been my target since we began to bottom out here. Over the next few months, we'll be getting Q2, Q3 and end of year trading for tax purposes so things could become very volatile in the months ahead. In the end, I think we are about to rally into mid-December much like we did last year mainly due to BlackBerry hitting on the holiday season this time around. As for deals, please read my other message where I talk about the timing aspect of the "special committee of regulars" sorting our complex scenarios based upon tax liability and benefits to BBRY as a whole!

    As soon as they give us a date on the BBM-X launch, we can expect to move higher here. Last year, we hit our low in the stock in the month of Sept and this year, barring a major correction, we have already seen our low. The only thing that many of us consider a negative right now would be the lack of interest in a deal or a buy-out from others. The next worst thing would be waiting for the news as these deals take many months not weeks to get done. Imagine if you will if 10 companies wanted to review your books to decide whether they want to acquire you. Then imagine that you had to narrow that review down to 3 possible deals that make sense but involve tax exemptions and debt of some sort. These deals can be very complex in terms of tax status on assets written down by BBRY versus some kind of leveraged buyout where CF dictates how much funding a company like Lenovo can raise for the deal. FairFax is the first mover, they decide how all of this will play out in the months ahead so a deal, if it were to come that involves a change in ownership, would take months to complete and go before the committee.

    So what happens to the stock while we wait? I think we are moving higher here assuming the Dow will move sideways during the next few weeks. You have yourself a great weekend too!!
    08-30-13 09:56 AM
  8. greyw0lf01's Avatar
    "erstwhile".
    Hat tip... despite the obvious schism on this thread (optimists/pessimists), the level of discourse is pretty impressive for a random message board.
    m0de25, gg22, Randeman and 2 others like this.
    08-30-13 09:56 AM
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I am not planing to sell before or after the next ER either. I don't have a hard timeline, but I think that it will take a couple years for BB to come back. I keep an eye on the news to make sure that things are moving along, and they are. I am not an investment expert though, so I could be making a wrong bet here - I am fine with that.
    There is really a fine line between a genius and fool, the reason is because when one is standing on the leading edge of something, there is probability of falling to either side (I have been called a genius at international conferences before, but have also been called a fool - I am fine with that because I know who I am). But the difference between a genius and common people is that the common people are too afraid to get onto the edge.
    I feel nowhere genius, but I've been right a couple of time, just listening to... me guts. This time, I'm challenging my personal trust, not only parading on a BlackBerry fan site with swinging positions, but putting acts and talk together.

    It's time for us all-co-funders of this thread to bring our pride back on the table. I'm fed up with naysayers that have essentially been WRONG for more than two years and try to dance again on the "jack you're dead" tune.

    We're part of a story that we knew Will be a long and tough fight, We're nor even close to the conclusion yet.

    Hey, StockBerrians : your position worse any other as of date. You don't need to bash or trash those who say the opposite. Make it clear.

    I'm in, not close to be out, and no one will threw me by the window. I'm 6"5 and one may have trouble to bind my 110 kg . Oh, I'm a stubborn Capricorn too.

    Posted via CB10
    08-30-13 09:58 AM
  10. sidhuk's Avatar
    Crackberry.
    Cash is contagious
    Last day before long weekend.
    Front page.
    They got him. They got him.
    LoL

    So be it.
    Life goes on.

    Takes years to earn trust.
    Takes one second to loose it all.
    08-30-13 10:04 AM
  11. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Canadian banks are already adopting the BlackBerry 10 phones, in part because the Z10 and Q10 were each available in Canada about two months before they went on sale in the U.S. Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s largest lender by assets, began deploying BlackBerry 10 phones in the spring as they became available, said Rina Cortese, a spokeswoman for the Toronto-based bank.

    “We are in the final stage of our Q10 pilot and will begin our roll-out in September,” said Paul Deegan, a spokesman for Bank of Montreal, Canada’s fourth-biggest bank by assets.
    Top U.S. bank so worried about BlackBerry’s future it is holding off on upgrading its employees’ smartphones | Financial Post
    08-30-13 10:12 AM
  12. Bugmapper's Avatar
    With Sinofsky On Board, Box Is Now Capable Of Mounting The First Credible Threat To Office | TechCrunch

    Box is going public sometime soon — I’m trying to get more on that, but haven’t heard much lately — and when it does it will want to tell investors how it will increase its per-seat revenue to ease fears of margin pressure. We know at least one way they could do that.
    08-30-13 10:18 AM
  13. cgk's Avatar
    With Sinofsky On Board, Box Is Now Capable Of Mounting The First Credible Threat To Office | TechCrunch

    Box is going public sometime soon — I’m trying to get more on that, but haven’t heard much lately — and when it does it will want to tell investors how it will increase its per-seat revenue to ease fears of margin pressure. We know at least one way they could do that.
    Has box got any faster? I trialed it with a client about six months ago and it was so slow as to be unusable.

    As for Kevin and Chris's post, to engage in a bit of kremlinology - I don't think you can simply take it on face value and have to read between the lines - I'll be surprising if Kevin isn't having lots of back channel conversations and before he would run a story like that, he would have a fairly good idea from sources he's not going to mention and quote that it will stand up.
    08-30-13 10:30 AM
  14. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    ... the Q5 failed
    You mean DOA? It's not on the market yet, just poping for weeks
    ...

    Posted via CB10
    08-30-13 10:40 AM
  15. cgk's Avatar
    You mean DOA? It's not on the market yet, just poping for weeks
    ...

    Posted via CB10
    The Q5 was released in the UK about six weeks ago - all the sign are like it's big brother it was stillborn - If it's been a big success in other markets BBRY are very quiet about it.
    gg22 likes this.
    08-30-13 10:59 AM
  16. notfanboy's Avatar
    There were comments from a few BB10 developers on the CB Wall Street Journal blog post that I'll bring over here. They shared percentages of app downloads across the different BB10 devices.

    Maybe I can contribute a little to those stats. Other devs can chime in?
    Our app usage per device for last month:

    BlackBerry Z10: 59%
    BlackBerry Q10: 39%
    BlackBerry Q5: 2%

    You would obviously have to factor in how people are purchasing/downloading apps on the different devices (Q10 might have a lot of enterprise presence, hence no app downloads / Q5 users might have less buying power), but it seems the Q10 is not the cash cow it was hoped to be.


    I think the stats you provided might be depend on the region. In my case, I have an app mostly used in the middle east. The numbers I am seeing for August are as follows:
    Q10 53.0%
    Q5 18.6%
    Z10 28.4%
    Here are some I posted in the forum earlier, broken down by month:

    May June July Aug
    Q10: 20% 14% 24% 23%
    Z10: 80% 86% 72% 70%
    Q5: 0% 0% 4% 7%

    Obviously same disclaimer as above applies.
    Here ya go, keep in mind that mine is a Web Design app, so a very niche market.

    BlackBerry Z10: 73.5%
    BlackBerry Q10: 23%
    BlackBerry Q5: 3.5%

    (Same disclaimer as above)
    Anecdotal evidence to be sure. But taken together with the WSJ surveys, cuts in production, Misek's 2MM prediction, all signs point to the keyboard BB10 devices not being the savior that some hoped it would be.
    08-30-13 11:01 AM
  17. sidhuk's Avatar
    Wow, i am surprised that sp still holding up so for. Despite the fact that they managed to pull Brutus on blackberry. I love this story of blackberry.
    08-30-13 11:05 AM
  18. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    The Q5 was released in the UK about six weeks ago - all the sign are like it's big brother it was stillborn - If it's been a big success in other markets BBRY are very quiet about it.
    Sry, was on the U.S WSJ trend.
    You're right about UK.
    Sorry to rehash but I do believe, despite the funky colors, that Q5 will gain traction in enterprises, more than gnral public. At least at start. And same applies to Q10.
    IMHO.

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, sidhuk and Randeman like this.
    08-30-13 11:08 AM
  19. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Has box got any faster? I trialed it with a client about six months ago and it was so slow as to be unusable.
    Make sure your client's modem has the following settings:
    8 data bits
    no parity
    1 stop bit
    and set your receive and transmit buffers to maximum.

    08-30-13 11:11 AM
  20. carbon fibre's Avatar
    Make sure your client's modem has the following settings:
    8 data bits
    no parity
    1 stop bit
    and set your receive and transmit buffers to maximum.

    LOL.
    And if that doesn't work, swap in a USRobotics model.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    08-30-13 11:18 AM
  21. La Emperor's Avatar
    Make sure your client's modem has the following settings:
    8 data bits
    no parity
    1 stop bit
    and set your receive and transmit buffers to maximum.

    That is funny Bug....nearly fell off my chair.
    08-30-13 11:23 AM
  22. greyw0lf01's Avatar
    Director Says BlackBerry Can Survive as 'Niche' Player:

    Director Says BlackBerry Can Survive as 'Niche' Player - WSJ.com
    08-30-13 11:25 AM
  23. leafs123's Avatar
    The WSJ has an interview coming with one of the member of BlackBerry's "special committee". Just saw it being promoted on twitter.

    Edit: Talk about timing, is that the one greyw0lf01 posted? If someone has a WSJ account, please post.
    Korepab, Bugmapper and cjcampbell like this.
    08-30-13 11:26 AM
  24. sidhuk's Avatar
    In september what could be positive.
    1. XBBM
    2. Z30
    3. Announcement of another BB10 device.
    4. An OFP or a partnership.
    5. ER widely expected loosing money but the good ER may be possible too.
    6. Os 10.2
    7. ?
    8. ?
    In September what could be more negative than we already have?
    1?
    2?
    Any one?
    Like TH resigning, q10 caused cancer etc.?
    08-30-13 11:30 AM
  25. anon1727506's Avatar
    I feel nowhere genius, but I've been right a couple of time, just listening to... me guts. This time, I'm challenging my personal trust, not only parading on a BlackBerry fan site with swinging positions, but putting acts and talk together.

    It's time for us all-co-funders of this thread to bring our pride back on the table. I'm fed up with naysayers that have essentially been WRONG for more than two years and try to dance again on the "jack you're dead" tune.

    We're part of a story that we knew Will be a long and tough fight, We're nor even close to the conclusion yet.

    Hey, StockBerrians : your position worse any other as of date. You don't need to bash or trash those who say the opposite. Make it clear.

    I'm in, not close to be out, and no one will threw me by the window. I'm 6"5 and one may have trouble to bind my 110 kg . Oh, I'm a stubborn Capricorn too.

    Posted via CB10
    Some of the naysayers are just afraid that some new people that come here might take the optimism of some at face value and make financial decisions that are not based on real world conditions.

    But when you started this thread two years ago, the stock was at $18... so I'm not sure that you are really RIGHT anymore than anyone that said BlackBerry was dead is wrong. The fact is they are in a lot worse shape today then they were two years ago. And call it being negative if you want, but production cuts, article about low sales and very little new traffic here on CrackBerry, along with PW steeping down and BB announcing again that are looking at alternatives.... well all together that isn't GOOD news is it?

    I want BlackBerry to succeed, I'd like to see my choice of buy a Z10 not to turn into two years of wondering why I did this again (lived with a Storm for two years). And I think it is possible that some big changes could turn things around - but there is NO indication from the Company that they are working to make those changes or doing anything different from the PLAN.

    I'm not trying to rain or your parade or anyone elses. But this thread is about a STOCK called BBRY, and about MONEY. Fanboyism and Stock investing are not a good combination. If someone took M+8 charts and analysis and ignored they fact that he is overly optimistic (like any fan should be - but investor should not be) and wrong quite a bit because BlackBerry did not deliver as expected, they might think that buying in right now is a good thing to do (maybe I don't really know).
    notfanboy, rodan01 and m1a1mg like this.
    08-30-13 11:33 AM
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