[coldsword]

I can see a face of proud owner.

Somebody just grabbed a couple in UAE

Attachment 135120

[StormieTwo]

Interesting idea. anybody getting a BB10 device will get a BBID, that will be easy enough to track. How are they going to track legacy devices, though? I've got my 9380 on bes but i've still got my 9950 hanging around. if they include phones like my S2, there would be a huge increase in "subscribers" but it would be a false number.
so let me rephrase it. under current accounting practice, i think we'll see the trend continue,

StormieTwo I pretty much agree with what you've written. With one exception "BBRY shed a million subscribers last quarter, I think we'll see that trend continuing at the next announcement."

What is going to surprise prople is that the 'subscriber number' is going to go up. Not because their is a sudden increase in subscribers but rather because BlackBerry is going to change how they calculate 'subscribers'. Starting this quarter report 'subscribers' will include ALL Blackberry users.

[fedakd]

Great point here W Hoa:

StormieTwo I pretty much agree with what you've written. With one exception "BBRY shed a million subscribers last quarter, I think we'll see that trend continuing at the next announcement."

What is going to surprise prople is that the 'subscriber number' is going to go up. Not because their is a sudden increase in subscribers but rather because BlackBerry is going to change how they calculate 'subscribers'. Starting this quarter report 'subscribers' will include ALL Blackberry users.

Thought I'd do some digging and found this through in last quarter's financial statement notes (Q3 Fiscal 2013):

"To reflect the changes described above, and to better address possible future strategies and service and software revenue opportunities related to an integrated services and software offering for the BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform, RIM will be adjusting the methodology it uses to calculate the size of its subscriber base for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 and subsequent fiscal quarters. Rather than calculating the total of all subscriber accounts that have an active status at the end of a reporting period and for which infrastructure access fees are thereby generated, RIM will identify its BlackBerry subscriber base as the total of all BlackBerry subscriber accounts that are provisioned to access BlackBerry services, regardless of whether RIM is receiving infrastructure access fees from each such subscriber in any given month. The Company believes this change will better reflect the base of BlackBerry users that may contribute to service revenues in the future, whether solely through infrastructure access fees or the integrated service and software offering being developed. "

A few other things on the top of my head:
- Production for BB10 devices is noted as 500,000 units in December, 1-2M in January, 2M+ in February. Based on Blackberry's GAAP revenue recognition criteria, a shipped unit is booked as revenue...
- Q4 (March 28th) will include BB7 Christmas sales. I feel many analysts have discounted or overlooked the large BB7 launches in Mexico, Indonesia & India. Although Blackberry shipped 6.9M BB7 units in Q3, it is entirely possible to book 6M+ BB7 units as a result of an increased level of sales for the holiday season. (Of course, this number also allows for some attrition due to upgrades to BB10 -- 6M units seems like a very conservative estimate to me)
- Between sales of BB7 and BB10, we could see upwards of 9 million units shipped.
- Additional sources of revenue we may see or may receive guidance for: NFC mobile payment, BES10, sources of QNX revenue from the vertical stack (automotive, healthcare etc.)

While I agree that a squeeze is not necessarily imminent, we cannot discount the likelihood of other wildcard announcements (licensing and/or partnerships) impacting the SP in the coming days/weeks/months. The more success BlackBerry continues to have with BB10 uptake, the higher the likelihood a device manufacturer is to strike a deal with BlackBerry. The android market is fragmented in many parts of the world and if you can no longer compete in the low cost product area, you must compete somewhere else -- product differentiation (Blackberry)

[StormieTwo]

Wow, My buddy has two kids, both with BB7s, neither of which is on BIS or BES. I would think there are a few like that here in North America. I hope I'm pleasently surpised by an increase in subscriber number (and I hope the Shorts haven't read the fine print)!

[morlock_man]

Wow, My buddy has two kids, both with BB7s, neither of which is on BIS or BES. I would think there are a few like that here in North America. I hope I'm pleasently surpised by an increase in subscriber number (and I hope the Shorts haven't read the fine print)!

Neither of them use BBM?

[W Hoa]

- Q4 (March 28th) will include BB7 Christmas sales. I feel many analysts have discounted or overlooked the large BB7 launches in Mexico, Indonesia & India. Although Blackberry shipped 6.9M BB7 units in Q3, it is entirely possible to book 6M+ BB7 units as a result of an increased level of sales for the holiday season.

Could be a surprise for sure. Second quarter (2FQ13) BlackBerry shipped 7.1 million phones but sold through slightly more than 10 million. We could see higher sell through numbers this quarter but without decent margins and a higher average selling price (ASP) it might not mean much. Of course, that's where BB10 devices come in.

[StormieTwo]

Niether uses bbm. They txt cause all of their buddies have iphones.

Neither of them use BBM?

[morlock_man]

Hmmmm. So they're uncounted by BlackBerry as subscribers.

At least with the new BB10 phones they'll be able to keep a more accurate count of new subscribers to the platform.

[Shanerredflag]

Can they not easily track numbers through the NOC...if it's a BB it goes through does it not?

Great insight too gentlemen...well done.

[timmy t]

Wow, My buddy has two kids, both with BB7s, neither of which is on BIS or BES. I would think there are a few like that here in North America. I hope I'm pleasently surpised by an increase in subscriber number (and I hope the Shorts haven't read the fine print)!

Only 75% use BIS. So 60 million subscribers and 80 million BB users.

[W Hoa]

The good news continues.

[Tinomane]

I'm buying more calls first thing monday. Went into the rogers store today and it was packed with ppl buying the z10's still. Even the transform cases were sold out.

[duckJAI]

Interesting to see how this affects Monday morning trading:

Research in Motion Ltd (BBRY) BB10 Gross Margins of 27%: Wells Fargo
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/02/res...7-wells-fargo/

[Charles Martin1]

Interesting to see how this affects Monday morning trading:

Research in Motion Ltd (BBRY) BB10 Gross Margins of 27%: Wells Fargo
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/02/res...7-wells-fargo/

Yes, I saw that. I hope their margins turn out to be a fair bit higher.

[BBNation]

Went to local futureshop store here in the very populated region of vancouver and the only thing left was 2 phones from telus. we all know that TELUS kinda missed the boat on z10 launch. Rogers and BELL was sold out, some cheap cases were sold out as well. Genuine BB cases were found. The salesman said that lots of hype, demand for z10.

[kfh227]

I'm buying more calls first thing monday. Went into the rogers store today and it was packed with ppl buying the z10's still. Even the transform cases were sold out.

I want to do the same but it is hard to find a good experation/stike to go with. I got a bunch of 22s and 30s LEAPS for 10 and 20 cents each when RIMM was at $7 or so. That opportunity just doesn't exist anymore.
Maybe some March 21.50s?

What are you planning on doing exactly?

[BBNation]

I want to do the same but it is hard to find a good experation/stike to go with. I got a bunch of 22s and 30s LEAPS for 10 and 20 cents each. That just doesn't exist anymore.
Maybe some March 21.50s?

What are you planning on doing exactly?

How is .20 to .30 cents options worth unless your commission rate is good. I find TD waterhouse options commission too high to trade cheap options

[kfh227]

How is .20 to .30 cents options worth unless your commission rate is good. I find TD waterhouse options commission too high to trade cheap options

Amaeritrade is $9.99 for the first one and $1.50 (I think) for each additional options.

A 10 cent option costs $10. Ya, alot if you do one option. One option would actually be 20 cents for one

Do 10 options though and it is $25 in commissions for $100 in options. Or 12.5 cents each. It's not that bad. Trick is volume.

I want more LEAP options also but it isn't cost effective anymore. And I have a hard time with the idea of gambling in the short term.

A fairly bad idea is to sell puts and buy calls with the proceeds. I've thought about it ... Sell the 2015 $7 puts and buy the 2015 $35 calls. Totally lacks hedging though. Need to hedge somewhow. Buy some $2015 5 puts? But with so much cash on hand could $7 every actually happen .... again ....

[Tinomane]

I want to do the same but it is hard to find a good experation/stike to go with. I got a bunch of 22s and 30s LEAPS for 10 and 20 cents each when RIMM was at $7 or so. That opportunity just doesn't exist anymore.
Maybe some March 21.50s?

What are you planning on doing exactly?

I'm looking way further out than that. I'm holding march 20 and 21 calls and I'm probably going to sell some of them and buy jan 2015 30 calls. I honestly think that when analysts/firms finally realize the value of qnx and blackberry as a brand we're going to be in the $75-$100 range by 2015.

Blackberry is so incredibly undervalued in my eyes, but I just don't know when all the big money will actually realize that. I just want to buy far out leaps so I don't have to guess when they'll figure it out bc I know in a year or two this thing is going to be flying.

[kfh227]

I just doubled checked. My "big time plays" are all Jan 2014s. I have a few out to 2015 but not many. Too costly to convert from 2014 to 2015.

Still tempted to get some 2015 35 calls but more money than I would want parked in one stock would be parked in BBRY.

[Tom689]

Damn I need to get my brokerage to let me do options

[duckJAI]

I just doubled checked. My "big time plays" are all Jan 2014s. I have a few out to 2015 but not many. Too costly to convert from 2014 to 2015.

Still tempted to get some 2015 35 calls but more money than I would want parked in one stock would be parked in BBRY.

I'm also looking at 2014 Jan leaps but waiting for them to come down in price. I want to enter in around the $1 mark, or lower. IIRC from Friday, they were around $1.30- $1.50 for Jan $30 or $35.

[Tinomane]

I actually "converted" my jan 2014 10 calls this past week. I bought in when they were a 1.46. And sold them at 7.10. I then bought jan 2015 12 calls with that money at 6.90. I think it's well worth it bc for almost the same premium I am getting a whole year extra of time for only a $2 increase in strike price. With the way this stock moves it could increase $2 in a day lol.

I think the jan 2015 calls are a better deal than the jan 2014.

[kfh227]

I wish there were Jan 2015 calls at the 50 or 60 strike. I'd load up!

The process is to ask your broker to request the CBOE to add them. Off I go! Let's all push fort this ;-)

[kfh227]

Hrrrmmmmm,

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