View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Thank you for an on-topic response and not throwing insults. Ok, about algorithmic trading. Let's compare it to the kind of charting that is seen in this thread. There are many strategies employed by the algos and only one of them, trend following, somewhat resembles what the chartist does. From wikipedia:



    But there is no evidence that trend following works, see the research paper that I linked to earlier. Other differences. The charting on this thread are based on exactly one variable changing over a set period of time. The algorithms make use of many variables and they have access to real time trading data. The algorithms are looking at the whole tapestry as it is being woven, the chartist is looking at a single thread once the garment has reached the retail store.

    Which leads to problem number 5: Trend following algorithms work in microprocessor time. Remember the flash crash in 2010 that was blamed on high frequency trading? These algos all detected a trend and reacted within seconds of each other. By the time the chartist draws the line and completes his analysis, the algos would have traded away all of the inefficiency.


    You are wrong about this. If a chartist shows up and predicts the bearish case purely because of charts, my objections would remain exactly the same. Besides they're not even "my" objections. These are well known criticisms of TA that have been around for decades.

    Here are some fun reads if you like this subject:
    Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World: Christopher Steiner: 9781591844921: Amazon.com: Books
    When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management: Roger Lowenstein: 9780375758256: Amazon.com: Books
    Enjoy your holiday!
    I believe there is as much pros and cons. What I pointed is the fact that TA does have massive implication in SP in general.
    I'm not a TA analyst nor do I base my "strategy" on it, at least not as a 8ball tool. But I'm so glad I learned more about it (even if I had a brief overview with one client and a close friend both with the highest level of knowledge in this area) thanks to M8 and others here that have done the mandatory simplification (i.e not detailing the underlying calculations and hidden indicators that are mandatory to serve their observations) .
    I have no experience nor education to challenge anyone about this. But I do believe knowing what can be brought by these analysis is a strength, whether or not you buy it as facts. As well as bearish analysis or any other type of reasoning .

    But I believe (the end of my response) that considering BlackBerry future only because the SP is going either way is an error. I'm an entrepreneur and I know it's not that way, at least until the real situation (cash, debts) does not require the "market" subsidizes the enterprise... and BlackBerry is not here, not at all.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy likes this.
    08-27-13 03:23 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    It just smells like they are going to piece the company apart and sell the ones that companies are willing to pay for and leaving us with a depressed SP still. I just hope that if they are going to sell that they sell blackberry as a whole. Not as little pieces leaving us with a shell of a company with just parts of the business that are not profitable.
    And there comes Superfly_fr and his "BlackBerry Holding" theory... I just hope they are as modern than I'm dreaming...




    Posted via CB10
    rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    08-27-13 03:30 PM
  3. silversun10's Avatar
    Fair enough, but the WSJ was not reporting fact, but reporting rumour. It sounds better to say spinoff especially when there aren't hard facts, or at least none that are able to be announced yet. Until then, it's a rumour. And what's wrong with being a wholly owned sub? It has it's own books, answers to no one but themselves, operates privately, and can simply be an asset of worth to BB as opposed to a part of it's day to day.

    To be clear, I am just spitting out ideas as this is all foreign to me but logically, it makes sense.
    If the headline rumour is Spinoff, why pretend we are talking about a subsidiary?
    lennyvolvo likes this.
    08-27-13 03:31 PM
  4. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Ok... since the distraction didn't work...

    Realistically, can BB "spin off" BBM right now anyway? It has no income.

    Create BBM Inc, then give it necessary physical and IP assets from BlackBerry, then run it as a division that has to show a profit, then have an IPO in 12 months when the business model is proven.

    No?
    Bacon Munchers likes this.
    08-27-13 03:39 PM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I respectfully and I mean that, disagree. A "controlled subsidiary" as mentioned in that article tells me it will definitely NOT be a separately traded company. BBRY will likely own 100% of BBM, Inc. It would be very foolish for BBRY for go thru the stock registration process for such a small part of its its business. It's not cost effective. Again, it is an accounting gymnastics for now, that won't cause shorts to have to cover simply because they do it.
    See above
    ...
    BlackBerry Holding
    ...
    Your 100% is not my favorite
    ...
    Why am I still alone...
    Probably 'cause I'm wrong.



    Posted via CB10
    Bugmapper likes this.
    08-27-13 03:42 PM
  6. Bugmapper's Avatar
    See above
    ...
    BlackBerry Holding
    ...
    Your 100% is not my favorite
    ...
    Why am I still alone...
    Probably 'cause I'm wrong.



    Posted via CB10
    Blackberry retains 51% of shares and 50% +1 of the BoD of BBM Inc are also BlackBerry BoD Directors?
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    08-27-13 03:46 PM
  7. cjcampbell's Avatar
    If the headline rumour is Spinoff, why pretend we are talking about a subsidiary?
    Without hard facts in the article to take literally, I won't take the headline as literal either. I, and OMG, were giving up idea's and options on how they could be severing BBM from the BB whole, should this even be their plan. That is all.
    08-27-13 03:52 PM
  8. dusdal's Avatar
    I've gotten back to the office so I can actually read the article.

    Assuming any of what is rumoured is accurate, if you read past the headline it definitely seems like an at least majority owned subsidiary. Not imo, a divestiture of the business.
    08-27-13 03:54 PM
  9. silversun10's Avatar
    Ok... since the distraction didn't work...

    Realistically, can BB "spin off" BBM right now anyway? It has no income.

    Create BBM Inc, then give it necessary physical and IP assets from BlackBerry, then run it as a division that has to show a profit, then have an IPO in 12 months when the business model is proven.

    No?
    Yeah, that would fit the WSJ report.
    And for as far as no income concerned there are enough companies trading with no income. That is the way RIM started out in the years before 2000.
    Bugmapper and sidhuk like this.
    08-27-13 03:55 PM
  10. silversun10's Avatar
    Without hard facts in the article to take literally, I won't take the headline as literal either. I, and OMG, were giving up idea's and options on how they could be severing BBM from the BB whole, should this even be their plan. That is all.
    We don't have hard facts, we don't know what is going to happen. But if you talk about the rumour, it is kind of hard to dismiss the fact that Spinoff is in the headline and dismiss the discussion of what that would mean.
    08-27-13 04:07 PM
  11. capper96's Avatar
    Here is some TA for you,

    The DOW is about to a plunge, probably about time, this overbought market needs to crash a little bit. Looks like a head and shoulders is forming, and we closed today close to the neckline, should bounce off of it slightly and then another strong dip. Looking for support around 13250.

    I am just curious on what this selloff will do to the BBRY shares myself
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-untitled.png
    JLagoon and dusdal like this.
    08-27-13 04:11 PM
  12. capper96's Avatar
    Here is some TA for you,

    The DOW is about to a plunge, probably about time, this overbought market needs to crash a little bit. Looks like a head and shoulders is forming, and we closed today close to the neckline, should bounce off of it slightly and then another strong dip. Looking for support around 13250.

    I am just curious on what this selloff will do to the BBRY shares myself
    Click image for larger version. 

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    And you can see the same setup starting at Feb2011 and ending Aug2011
    gg22 likes this.
    08-27-13 04:15 PM
  13. Josh Brolin's Avatar
    I don't think it will effect bbry. Especially with talks of a sale.

    Posted via CB10
    08-27-13 04:15 PM
  14. lcjr's Avatar
    Holy cow, is that chart acurate? If the DOW is about to plunge I'm going to throw-up. lol... Can somebody verify that data?
    RigoMonster likes this.
    08-27-13 04:32 PM
  15. sidhuk's Avatar
    Ok... since the distraction didn't work...

    Realistically, can BB "spin off" BBM right now anyway? It has no income.

    Create BBM Inc, then give it necessary physical and IP assets from BlackBerry, then run it as a division that has to show a profit, then have an IPO in 12 months when the business model is proven.

    No?
    IMO. Spin off is like, when DJ spins a record and adds that s#%^t sound in a perfectly sung song and creates a remix. WSJ making blackberry look like a mcgiver.
    bungaboy and OMGitworks like this.
    08-27-13 04:32 PM
  16. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Blackberry retains 51% of shares and 50% +1 of the BoD of BBM Inc are also BlackBerry BoD Directors?
    Kinda sorta
    Then figure, beside Prem & friends who can join... after the X-BBM deal with appl and Goog is done...
    I'm a new kind of analyst (seems anyone can pretend he is nowadays) I'm a shadowist !
    P.S: wouldn't that be equally devilish and genius ?

    Posted via CB10
    Bugmapper and bungaboy like this.
    08-27-13 04:38 PM
  17. capper96's Avatar
    Holy cow, is that chart acurate? If the DOW is about to plunge I'm going to throw-up. lol... Can somebody verify that data?
    I am not sure what you are looking for, but one of the key things I have learned from M+8 and this thread was to watch the SMA5 to see where the money is going. Keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart so money has started exiting the market almost three weeks ago. Syria has nothing to do with this selloff as mr. market wants you to believe in my opinion
    08-27-13 05:06 PM
  18. morganplus8's Avatar
    We don't have hard facts, we don't know what is going to happen. But if you talk about the rumour, it is kind of hard to dismiss the fact that Spinoff is in the headline and dismiss the discussion of what that would mean.
    And some reading for you:
    Spin-Offs 101

    Ingersoll Rand did this and their official statement rings of everything Heins has been pumping these last few months:
    Ingersoll Rand to Enhance Shareholder and Company Value Through Two Major Initiatives | Business Wire

    Nice to have a definition:
    << Spin-off. In a spin-off, a company sets up one of its existing subsidiaries or divisions as a separate company.

    Shareholders of the parent company receive stock in the new company based on an evaluation established for the new entity. In addition, they continue to hold stock in the parent company.

    The motives for spin-offs vary. A company may want to refocus its core businesses, shedding those that it sees as unrelated. Or it may want to set up a company to capitalize on investor interest.

    In other cases, a corporation may face regulatory hurdles in expanding its business and spin off a unit to be in compliance. Sometimes, a group of employees will assume control of the new entity through a buyout, an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP), or as the result of negotiation. >>

    More good news:
    Advantages
    The rationale behind a spinoff, tracking stock or carve-out is that "the parts are greater than the whole." These corporate restructuring techniques, which involve the separation of a business unit or subsidiary from the parent, can help a company raise additional equity funds. A break-up can also boost a company's valuation by providing powerful incentives to the people who work in the separating unit, and help the parent's management to focus on core operations.

    Most importantly, shareholders get better information about the business unit because it issues separate financial statements. This is particularly useful when a company's traditional line of business differs from the separated business unit. With separate financial disclosure, investors are better equipped to gauge the value of the parent corporation. The parent company might attract more investors and, ultimately, more capital.

    Also, separating a subsidiary from its parent can reduce internal competition for corporate funds. For investors, that's great news: it curbs the kind of negative internal wrangling that can compromise the unity and productivity of a company.

    Carve-outs:
    Equity Carve-Outs
    More and more companies are using equity carve-outs to boost shareholder value. A parent firm makes a subsidiary public through an initial public offering (IPO) of shares, amounting to a partial sell-off. A new publicly-listed company is created, but the parent keeps a controlling stake in the newly traded subsidiary.

    A carve-out is a strategic avenue a parent firm may take when one of its subsidiaries is growing faster and carrying higher valuations than other businesses owned by the parent. A carve-out generates cash because shares in the subsidiary are sold to the public, but the issue also unlocks the value of the subsidiary unit and enhances the parent's shareholder value.

    The new legal entity of a carve-out has a separate board, but in most carve-outs, the parent retains some control. In these cases, some portion of the parent firm's board of directors may be shared. Since the parent has a controlling stake, meaning both firms have common shareholders, the connection between the two will likely be strong.

    My take:
    I don't see this happening at all, the prize here is the NOC, if they can provide safe, secure communication to the world, they have something unique to take to market. I'm not sure how they can accomplish this without pinning all of the business subs together. As an investor, I want to see BBM cross platform on PCs and mobile, secured via the NOC and a critical part of Enteprise and BES10. So I say it is a bad rumour!!
    Last edited by morganplus8; 08-27-13 at 05:34 PM.
    08-27-13 05:09 PM
  19. potatoman3's Avatar
    Okay, let's say they do spinoff into separate BBM shares. Are options screwed?

    Posted via CB10
    08-27-13 05:24 PM
  20. sidhuk's Avatar
    [B]

    My take:
    I don't see this happening at all, the prize here is the NOC, if they can provide safe, secure communication to the world, they have something unique to take to market. I'm not sure how they can accomplish this without pinning all of the business subs together. As an investor, I want to see BBM cross platform on PCs and mobile, secured via the NOC and a critical part of Enteprise and BES10. So I say it is a bad rumour!!
    Thanks Morgan, for taking your time to explain all of that.
    we know what media is been doing to blackberry, yet again we get caught in illusion that some how they will report something that is worth looking at. Human nature I guess.
    bungaboy and morganplus8 like this.
    08-27-13 05:30 PM
  21. sidhuk's Avatar
    Okay, let's say they do spinoff into separate BBM shares. Are options screwed?

    Posted via CB10
    Yes. Screwed. And time for another cry session.
    I am off to the gym.
    bungaboy and BergerKing like this.
    08-27-13 05:33 PM
  22. morganplus8's Avatar
    Okay, let's say they do spinoff into separate BBM shares. Are options screwed?

    Posted via CB10
    No sir!!!

    The company wouldn't even consider doing this unless they could issue shares at some premium to the current market value assigned by the parent stock price. If the investment community values BBM as part of BBRY at say $ 5.00/sub and the company feels it can sell shares as a seperate entity at say the current market value of $ 15.00/sub, the resulting difference of $ 10.00/sub becomes cash to current shareholders in terms of actual cash in the sale of shares, or, the stock value of the new entity in the stock market. Our principal stock will go up accordingly. Trust me, if this move unleashes $ 3.00/shr in BBRY value, your options will do just fine.
    08-27-13 05:54 PM
  23. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Yo everybody, I have been busy showing my friends around the city... Looks like I have a lot of catching up to do. I wonder what is going on with this BBM fiasco...
    BergerKing likes this.
    08-27-13 06:10 PM
  24. morganplus8's Avatar
    I am not sure what you are looking for, but one of the key things I have learned from M+8 and this thread was to watch the SMA5 to see where the money is going. Keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart so money has started exiting the market almost three weeks ago. Syria has nothing to do with this selloff as mr. market wants you to believe in my opinion
    capper96!!

    Thanks for taking the time to post a "warning" chart for all to see. We need to stay focused on the general market too and this Syria business might become the excuse for a sell-off. I made up a quick chart of the DOW using the daily chart:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-dow-jones-august-27-2013-chart.jpg

    Sorry but this is one ugly chart, I threw it together and it ain't pretty! There is a long uptrend line that started back in Nov 2012, it was broken at the beginning of last week. That's bearish but expected. We also have some support at 14550 (June 24 lows) on the DOW, not too far from where we are now. Secondly, there is a channel that we are trading within and we are very close to hitting the blue support line there too. Finally, we are oversold on the RSI which is retesting the lows and suggesting we could bounce from here. None of this matters if we start another war in the days ahead. All of this tells me that we are near a bottom this time around, there is no rally coming for a couple of months though, just some sideways movement and some pops every now and then. Let's see if the DOW can open lower tomorrow and finish positive.

    You mentioned the 5-dma and I looked at the 5-ema as well, we are well below them, we tried to break above them over the past couple of days and failed. Still, it looks like we maybe just retesting the June 24th lows now. Keep up the good work!
    08-27-13 06:20 PM
  25. carbon fibre's Avatar
    Just checking in to see jlagoon's daily BBRY TA.

    He has been like clockwork lately. Hope he is OK.
    JLagoon likes this.
    08-27-13 06:35 PM
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