View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. chrysaurora's Avatar
    I understand you are looking for a M+8 response, but going private means that someone buys all the shares of a company at a certain price. I short would have to pay the agreed price and return the share to the broker, which they in turn give the owner of the company the shares.
    It doesn't make sense to me. But i've very little knowledge on this so I concede that you may be correct. Here is why it makes little sense -
    Let's say there are 500M shares. And 150M are shorted. So,
    $18 price would be for 500M shares. So, that gives you $9B market cap.

    But now there are 150M shorted and they must also be bought back. So, $18 X 150M should give another $2.7 B of additional (hidden) market cap.

    So, that totals to $11.7B. But if what you are saying is correct, then where does this $2.7B go?


    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    08-12-13 06:02 PM
  2. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    oh i thought it was 4.61 based on a super precision analysis(aka pulling numbers from your.....)
    Yaa but....
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    08-12-13 06:02 PM
  3. ccbs's Avatar
    Best news for BBRY ever. I am longing for this day and hold the share primarily waiting for this. I have always said a price range of 16 ~ 18 are most likely the price shareholders would agree.
    bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    08-12-13 06:05 PM
  4. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Best news for BBRY ever. I am longing for this day and hold the share primarily waiting for this. I have always said a price range of 16 ~ 18 are most likely the price shareholders would agree.
    Nooooo lol... But yea its not a bad price... Just a far cry from the 30+ I want! If that is even possible.
    bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    08-12-13 06:09 PM
  5. bungaboy's Avatar
    The longs are spinning today hard. The only people who will benefit are the scavengers who bought when bbry was at deaths door. As these newcomers are cheering dont forget the real bbry supporters who bought at 20-30-40-100-140. Its beyond obnoxious to hear these people yammer about shorts when there are many out there beyond buried deep. The real longs.
    Reminds me of one of my favourite songs.

    08-12-13 06:11 PM
  6. Josh Brolin's Avatar
    Why so angry Josh? Should of covered under $9? Thanks for the cheap calls I couldn't of done it without the shorts. The next few weeks should be fun

    Posted via CB10
    You do know the shorts are winning right?
    08-12-13 06:12 PM
  7. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    1700 pages and never had an argument...well done!
    bungaboy and dusdal like this.
    08-12-13 06:12 PM
  8. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    And now this:

    bungaboy and cjcampbell like this.
    08-12-13 06:15 PM
  9. JBML007's Avatar
    And now this:

    Holy how did you get a copy of the latest episode of The Verge's Mobile Show!?

    Posted via CB10
    08-12-13 06:18 PM
  10. bungaboy's Avatar
    Spanking Alfalfa.

    Monday, Aug 12
    5:57 PM Paper: Watsa thiking of taking BlackBerry private

    Sources tell The Globe and Mail Prem Watsa, fresh off resigning from BlackBerry's (BBRY +10.5%) board, is "exploring ways" to take the company private.

    The paper adds "there was no strategic disagreement" between Watsa and the board, and that his resignation was purely done to avoid conflicts of interest. Watsa's firm, Fairfax Financial, is reportedly "holding talks with a number of private equity and industry players" about a possible deal.

    Meanwhile, Evercore has upgraded BlackBerry to Hold, and gives the company a $10/share sum-of-the-parts valuation. The firm thinks a buyer could see value in BlackBerry's network operations centers, and end up better monetizing them by creating an "open solution" that supports Android/iOS (as the departed Jim Balsillie reportedly wanted).

    Jefferies' Peter Misek once more takes an optimistic view, assigning a $15/share LBO valuation.

    More on BlackBerry
    08-12-13 06:23 PM
  11. JonCBK's Avatar
    It doesn't make sense to me. But i've very little knowledge on this so I concede that you may be correct. Here is why it makes little sense -
    Let's say there are 500M shares. And 150M are shorted. So,
    $18 price would be for 500M shares. So, that gives you $9B market cap.

    But now there are 150M shorted and they must also be bought back. So, $18 X 150M should give another $2.7 B of additional (hidden) market cap.

    So, that totals to $11.7B. But if what you are saying is correct, then where does this $2.7B go?


    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    Shorting a stock doesn't create new stock, so there is no extra $2.7B. Someone who shorts a stock just owes the counterparty in their trade either a share of the stock or the dollar amount equivalent. When Goldman says it has 100,000 shares it can short, it is just saying it can do 100,000 short sale trades. But the stock is there and (I believe) just stays with Goldman. It never actually gets sold as Goldman holds on to it for the short seller so the stock is there to cover the short. That way the short isn't naked.
    The shorts lost 10% today, so this was a very bad day. They may decide to close out their position. Anyone in it long time has certainly made a nice bundle on this short to this point. Personally, I can't see the upside of being short a stock that is trading this low and yet still has so many real assets (one of which being money). And that includes patents that are not depreciating at a quick pace, one can assume.

    This rumor is going to go a long way toward setting a floor under the BBRY stock. Once interest to acquire the company starts circulating, the shorts are going to try to get out of this. Or perhaps they won't. Certainly they will be replaced as the trade looks very different if BBRY goes from slowly spending all its cash to becoming a subsidiary of some giant company in a stock swap. So we should have new shorts soon.

    Anyway, if a cash offer gets made, the stock will rise to just below that offer. The shorts will then eventually have to settle their trades before the stocks get swept up in the offer. That is between them and their counterparty. But the buyer of the company will still just pay one time for the each share.

    But I think a joint venture is just as much a possibility as a takeover.
    08-12-13 06:23 PM
  12. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    I usually end up speaking too soon with these things, but eff it.

    I just stumbled across a video one of BB's largest short sellers going over today's news... I'm sure many others where in the same situation.
    Last edited by BergerKing; 08-13-13 at 12:52 PM. Reason: Edited veiled profanity.
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    08-12-13 06:24 PM
  13. morganplus8's Avatar
    I don't think that's true. Shorts have to buy/cover.
    If someone buys at $18, then our shares go to this buyer at $18. But shorts still have to cover.
    Morgan+8 - maybe you can clarify how this works?
    chrysaurora!!!

    Thanks for the question! There are normally open short positions in all publically traded companies these days. That's why when an offer is made to buy a company the firm that is in charge of retirement of stock also performs an arbitrage program to clear the short position at the assigned price. The original owners of the stock want to accept the current price, and for them to do so, the stock has to be made available to the shorts to close their position and move on. All of this takes place from the time the offer to purchase is first made, until the close of the offering. The shorts normally try to cover their position much earlier in the process, at a point when they believe that a deal is imminent. Today we are seeing some of those shorts stepping in to cover their position.

    Our story is a bit different, we don't have a clue what the outcome of all of this posturing will be, we only know that BB is looking at all possible outcomes, some of which might leave present shorts in a good position. Suppose they sell off the hardware business as a going concern with Samsung making all future BB phones while paying a royalty to BlackBerry, if you were short you would maintain your position in this case. We really don't know what the plan is for BlackBerry and shorts might like to hang around and find out what goes down.

    Today the talk is about valuation, many think a typical 40% premium would occur but few know at what level the stock will be trading at when that occurs. If you look at 40% of $ 14.00/shr which was the average 2013 trading range for BBRY, you are looking at $ 19.60/shr/US. Not bad.

    As I have mentioned before, an offer is the result of certain laws that exist, Prem must state his intentions to the world, if he buys 10% or more of the stock. I think he is doing this now for several reasons. In Canada, if you own 10% of the shares you block the 90% rule from happening. Without enough shareholder approval, not many deals are going through and I think he wants to protect his investment in the company. So he might continue to buy shares knowing any offer will look like his recent purchases plus 40%. But there are several other ways this can go, the shorts, through short covering, could drive the stock price much higher before we hear of any deals in the works. Then we are looking at complex deals that could come out of the review by management. I think that up until $ 13.50/shr, there are a ton of buyers who will want to own some of this trade, I see us moving back up there quickly as no one wants to hand shares over to the shorts at todays prices..

    Awhile back, I mentioned that the company was very quiet, no news out of them, then, Heins got his 3.5 million shares at $ 9.67/shr and sure enough now we are getting plenty of positive news. It's called getting all of your ducks in a row. Is anyone surprised that management is ready to see the stock appreciate here?

    The shorts aren't really a factor any more, sure, they can retire some of their position and get us to $ 13.50/shr pretty quickly here, but they are out of the loop now as this isn't about subs, phones, enterprise etc.., nothing to bash here, it's about what others need to own. Shorts have no control over Samsung wanting to buy into BlackBerry's massive patent collection to stop Apple lawsuits every other day. How do you put a hard value on ending countless lawsuits?

    I see us going higher from here, we have a huge gap to fill and I personally think the first deal is already to launch (that would be Prem, Teachers and CPP). I see a final offer North of the 52 week high. Best of luck and please do what's best for you!
    08-12-13 06:25 PM
  14. silversun10's Avatar
    It doesn't make sense to me. But i've very little knowledge on this so I concede that you may be correct. Here is why it makes little sense -
    Let's say there are 500M shares. And 150M are shorted. So,
    $18 price would be for 500M shares. So, that gives you $9B market cap.

    But now there are 150M shorted and they must also be bought back. So, $18 X 150M should give another $2.7 B of additional (hidden) market cap.

    So, that totals to $11.7B. But if what you are saying is correct, then where does this $2.7B go?


    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    market cap is number of shares out times the share price. regardless of the number of shorts, the shorts covering does NOT change the market cap. the shorts might have a hard time covering but that is their problem. and if short covering drives up the price to say $25, then a take private or take over bid of say $20 will fail as it is below the market, nobody will agree to a price below market. so, that is the beauty of the market, sooner or later the true value will surface
    08-12-13 06:27 PM
  15. take99's Avatar
    I don't really have to say it, but great post by Morgan...thanks again for all your contributions on this thread, it is greatly appreciated over here.
    08-12-13 06:33 PM
  16. the_sleuth's Avatar
    I am not a speculator. Even with this announcement, I would not buy shares of BB. Here is my reasoning. With Prem Watsa resigned from BOD it appears he will use his holding company Fairfax to shore up his 9.9% stake.

    He will coral other private equity players like Canada Pension Plan and Silver Lake, for not a take over of BlackBerry. But a take under. Private equity will shaft the small shareholder by purchasing the company below its current book value. Their reasoning is that an investment in the company at its current state is very risky. I speculate it will be in $10 to $14 range. Just look at what happened with Dell, being sold for Price-to-Sales of 0.5x.
    m1a1mg likes this.
    08-12-13 06:35 PM
  17. silversun10's Avatar
    I am not a speculator. Even with this announcement, I would not buy shares of BB. Here is my reasoning. With Prem Watsa resigned from BOD it appears he will use his holding company Fairfax to shore up his 9.9% stake.

    He will coral other private equity players like Canada Pension Plan and Silver Lake, for not a take over of BlackBerry. But a take under. Private equity will shaft the small shareholder by purchasing the company below its current book value. Their reasoning is that an investment in the company at its current state is very risky. I speculate it will be in $10 to $14 range. Just look at what happened with Dell, being sold for Price-to-Sales of 0.5x.
    to get the shares they will have to pay a premium to the current price, so regardless if you call it a take under, buying now will make you money.
    08-12-13 06:39 PM
  18. take99's Avatar
    So, since TH made a truckload today, maybe he could host our revised 'not $100' theme party at his expense due to the emotional abuse this stock has caused us?
    08-12-13 06:50 PM
  19. the_sleuth's Avatar
    It won't be a premium for small shareholders who purchased this winter and spring in $15 to $18. Also those poor souls whose average cost is in the twenties well good luck.
    Prem Watsa will average down from his current average cost of $17 per share with a take under.

    to get the shares they will have to pay a premium to the current price, so regardless if you call it a take under, buying now will make you money.
    m1a1mg likes this.
    08-12-13 06:56 PM
  20. bungaboy's Avatar
    I don't really have to say it, but great post by Morgan...thanks again for all your contributions on this thread, it is greatly appreciated over here.
    Yes, appreciated on the "right coast" too.
    08-12-13 06:59 PM
  21. bungaboy's Avatar
    So, since TH made a truckload today, maybe he could host our revised 'not $100' theme party at his expense due to the emotional abuse this stock has caused us?
    He still has a long way to go for most of us here I think.
    Shanerredflag and sidhuk like this.
    08-12-13 07:01 PM
  22. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    It won't be a premium for small shareholders who purchased this winter and spring in $15 to $18. Also those poor souls whose average cost is in the twenties well good luck.
    Prem Watsa will average down from his current average cost of $17 per share with a take under.
    When we are talking about the premium at the current price, aren't we all confusing it too much with today's share price?

    To me, the current price means the share price at the time of deal, no?
    Or am I missing something here?

    Or is it that everyone is assuming that the deal is already done today, with a premium on today's current share price ... and just speculating on the percentage of the premium, without using the current price as a variable?
    Last edited by BlackistheBerry; 08-12-13 at 07:28 PM.
    sidhuk and app_Developer like this.
    08-12-13 07:02 PM
  23. bungaboy's Avatar
    Well there is no pleasing some people. So . . . . .

    Shanerredflag and cjcampbell like this.
    08-12-13 07:03 PM
  24. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    Look what happened to dell. They had a book value of $6.50-$7 and was sold for $13.5. BlackBerry has a book value of $18 so what will BlackBerry be sold for?


    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag, bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    08-12-13 07:06 PM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    He still has a long way to go for most of us here I think.
    bungaboy likes this.
    08-12-13 07:07 PM
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