[La Emperor]

We've seen rumors come and go, which causes a short spike on SP only to disappoint a lot of people a few days later. I'm not saying BB going private would never happen, but I think this spike is supported by 3 recent relevant news that the mainstream media "bashers" tend to ignore or just want keep to themselves. . The rumor could just be a cover for the 3 cards that BB pulled.

1. Recent DoD news giving BB the ATO. MDM
2. BBM endorsement from Samsung in SA. BBM
3. Scholars endorsement in the significance of ECC if and when RSA and DH algorithms are broken ( in a few years, they think). Would any sane company wait for that time to arrive? Of course not. So licensing of ECC technology is being explored now perhaps. NSA recommended this tech a few years back. PATENTS/LICENSING

Now if they can just announce an OTA deal with either GM or Chrysler or any of the European car manufacturers, it would be the fourth card in their pillar of strength.

MDM, BBM, PATENTS/LICENSING, OTA

DISCLAIMER: these are all my personal speculation, so take it with a grain of salt.

[dusdal]

GSC has added a note to their US graph which explains the maintained bump upwards and explains the sustained fall in Canada since July.

Hover over the triangle on BB's green trend line in the beginning of June to get the note.

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

[leafs123]

GSC has added a note to their US graph which explains the maintained bump upwards and explains the sustained fall in Canada since July.

Hover over the triangle on BB's green trend line in the beginning of June to get the note.

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

It is also a problem when the BB10 browser shows up as Safari. It happened for me using the native Evernote app which came with the 10.2 leak. I asked to reset the password and got an email telling me about the password change, my location and browser which registered as Safari.

[cjcampbell]

Wait for it in 5......4......3.....

[dusdal]

haha. I tried just the link instead of pasting the chart. I wanted to control for one of the variables to see if he could smell the chart itself or any reference to GSC as well.

[Gesig Boek]

haha. I tried just the link instead of pasting the chart. I wanted to control for one of the variables to see if he could smell the chart itself or any reference to GSC as well.

You guys are hilarious. Either way, the change explains the drop, but not the rise in the first instance.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

We've seen rumors come and go, which causes a short spike on SP only to disappoint a lot of people a few days later. I'm not saying BB going private would never happen, but I think this spike is supported by 3 recent relevant news that the mainstream media "bashers" tend to ignore or just want keep to themselves. . The rumor could just be a cover for the 3 cards that BB pulled.

1. Recent DoD news giving BB the ATO. MDM
2. BBM endorsement from Samsung in SA. BBM
3. Scholars endorsement in the significance of ECC if and when RSA and DH algorithms are broken ( in a few years, they think). Would any sane company wait for that time to arrive? Of course not. So licensing of ECC technology is being explored now perhaps. NSA recommended this tech a few years back. PATENTS/LICENSING

Now if they can just announce an OTA deal with either GM or Chrysler or any of the European car manufacturers, it would be the fourth card in their pillar of strength.

MDM, BBM, PATENTS/LICENSING, OTA

DISCLAIMER: these are all my personal speculation, so take it with a grain of salt.

No, your 1, 2, 3 were all known and priced in prior to last nights pop on the rumour. 1, 2 and 3 slowed the sleigh ride to $7 for a while by taking the sting out of the avalanche of negative facts this summer for a bit. It's all about the recency and availability heuristic that underlines so much of psychology.

Back to today's pop:

"I don't expect this rally to last," BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis told MarketWatch. "Never say never but my read on this is this is just talk. ... You have to be highly skeptical of anonymous sources when there are no sources of capital. The company's turnaround position is still very questionable. I don't buy it."
BlackBerry, Priceline rise, but Nvidia slides - Tech Stocks - MarketWatch

From the actual Reuters story that is being widely repeated:

-"BlackBerry Ltd is *warming up* to the *possibility* of going private"
-"No deal is imminent, however, and BlackBerry has not launched any kind of a sale process, the sources said. Even if it tried, BlackBerry could find it hard to come up with a buyer and the funding to go private. With the company still posting losses and bleeding subscribers, private equity firms and other buyers may not want to step up."
-"Some investors say the company must now look at all of its options, from a sale of the whole company to a sale of parts."

Anonymous source? Board warming up to the possibility? No deal in sight? Would be hard to find a buyer?

Unreal. No really, unreal as in not real. I also love the 'investors say company must look at all options'. Yes, like what Mr. Heins has been saying for the last *6 months*? Stop the presses! Breaking news!

At least the Lenovo buyout rumour last March actually quoted a "might be a possibility" from the Lenovo head.

This one is not even smoke. If something this thin caused a short term slump of similar scale this thread would would be lit up with cries for the reporter's head and demands that BBRY legal sue Reuters.

This rumour too shall pass, taking the stock back to its actual fact derived trajectory. Facts like
-the negative EPS forecast for *years* ahead.
-cratering subscriber numbers with future prospects in this area so abysmal that the CEO, incredibly, will refuse to provide numbers in the future.
-failing handset business as shown in the June ER and now multiple reports of sales share loss worldwide and especially in the 'gotta make it' US market (less than 0.5% are BB10 sales over the last three months assuming about 40% BBRY sales are BB 10 as claimed by Heins last month). Misek's 'get a partner or get out' comment yesterday is just the latest voice.
-new software and services that are either untested in the actual gotta pay for it market (BES 10) or vapourware (x-platform BBM). Incredibly, this is the 'good' part of their business according to most.

Memories are short, but reality is long.

[leafs123]

Some analyst commentary on the rumour.

BBRY: Buyout or No, Must Cut Costs, Says Wells; Too Late, Says UBS - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

[bungaboy]

We've seen rumors come and go, which causes a short spike on SP only to disappoint a lot of people a few days later. I'm not saying BB going private would never happen, but I think this spike is supported by 3 recent relevant news that the mainstream media "bashers" tend to ignore or just want keep to themselves. . The rumor could just be a cover for the 3 cards that BB pulled.

1. Recent DoD news giving BB the ATO. MDM
2. BBM endorsement from Samsung in SA. BBM
3. Scholars endorsement in the significance of ECC if and when RSA and DH algorithms are broken ( in a few years, they think). Would any sane company wait for that time to arrive? Of course not. So licensing of ECC technology is being explored now perhaps. NSA recommended this tech a few years back. PATENTS/LICENSING

Now if they can just announce an OTA deal with either GM or Chrysler or any of the European car manufacturers, it would be the fourth card in their pillar of strength.

MDM, BBM, PATENTS/LICENSING, OTA

DISCLAIMER: these are all my personal speculation, so take it with a grain of salt.

Nice to have you back here again.

[dusdal]

You guys are hilarious. Either way, the change explains the drop, but not the rise in the first instance.

They have added a similar note to the Canadian chart suggesting that the rise there was due to proxied Asian traffic.



Posted via CB10

[leafs123]

Can we break $10 already.

[Bugmapper]

Can we break $10 already.

Highly improbable.... Opex = close of $9.9x

[lcjr]

Ok, this jump in SP can't be caused by the buyout rumor alone, can it? Has anybody found anything else??

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

Some analyst commentary on the rumour.

BBRY: Buyout or No, Must Cut Costs, Says Wells; Too Late, Says UBS - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

Thanks for the link. UBS is particularly interesting as it lays out the facts that even if the board is 'warming up to the possibility' of going private, funding would be very unlikely:

"We assign a low probability to this outcome given the transitional challenges to BB10 as sales have been weak, accelerating sub losses, increasing competition in the high end, and an eroding cash cushion ($3b). As we have written before, working capital (WC), which was a source of cash ahead of BB10, would turn to a use of cash as inventories ramp and write-downs follow. We wrote ~2 years ago that the right strategy for BBRY was to focus on software and services, with an emphasis on MDM and porting its apps (email, calendar, messaging) to other platforms (iOS, Android). While BBRY is now headed in that direction, it seems late to us given the competitive MDM market. BBRY still has the adv. of an installed base it can leverage, but the cost of client retention will be high. We don�t think PE firms would be interested given the challenges facing the company."

-weak BB10 sales.
-accelerating sub losses.
-formidable competition in handsets.
-cash burn.
-swelling inventories leading to expensive write downs.
-need to bail from hardware and focus exclusively on SAS.
-way late to even try a SAS only play, the writing was on the wall years ago, but the only realistic choice now.
-extremely unlikely to find the capital to go private given the "challenges" listed above.

Oh, and no I am not Mr. Passi ;-)

[Gesig Boek]

They have added a similar note to the Canadian chart suggesting that the rise there was due to proxied Asian traffic.
Posted via CB10

Now that does explain it, but it does not explain why they then took this excess traffic and passed it to USA rather than back to the Asian countries where it came from. At least foul play is now excluded.

Either way, given that it is proxied traffic it also means it does not really relate to BB10.

[silversun10]

Ok, this jump in SP can't be caused by the buyout rumor alone, can it? Has anybody found anything else??

shareholders are always the last ones to know, so that is why we are looking at charts. and BB started an uptrend, one day we will find out what really happened, but then it will be water under the bridge...so, we will see, up it is for now...

[bungaboy]

Wait for it in 5......4......3.....

You got a Lurker sniffer or what?

[bungaboy]

Ok, this jump in SP can't be caused by the buyout rumor alone, can it? Has anybody found anything else??

KARMA

[bungaboy]

Goin' Beserk on this jump.

[bungaboy]

Watch for the last hour drop. Profit taking.

[lcjr]

If it got into the mid 10s I'd be tempted to sell for a loss then buy back in on the drop. But, I'm not good enough or brave enough to do that right now. Glad others can...

[cjcampbell]

You got a Lurker sniffer or what?

It's all about patterns.... lmao

[Bigbacala]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackb...175328361.html


"Even if the company does somehow some way manage to get financing to make a go-private bid, we will be extremely vocal about it and would directly urge and encourage shareholders to fight it. "

Sounds like the author doesn't want to see the SP rise.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

My Stop is @10.02 , So this morning I've added to my position twice on the pop

Here's where I am now ------->
http://i.imm.io/1e91B.png

Regards

Came within 4 cents of your stop today!

[silversun10]

BlackBerry Go-Private Dreams, CrackBerry Needs a Lesson in Logic - Yahoo! Finance


"Even if the company does somehow some way manage to get financing to make a go-private bid, we will be extremely vocal about it and would directly urge and encourage shareholders to fight it. "

Sounds like the author doesn't want to see the SP rise.

Posted via CB10

with other words BB is under priced....