View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex's Avatar
    And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?
    I am unable to make sense of your comment. Please enlighten at least me and perhaps us. The chart shows a formerly profitable hardware segment that is now (or at least a few months ago when BBRY FYI 2013 ended) in the red. This historical data, combined with consensus earnings estimates that are also red for many, many quarters to come, indicate to me that hardware is, at the very least, in ICU with plenty of tubes attached. BB10 devices are... not exactly setting the world on fire.

    When any optimism is expressed about BBRY these days, it is almost invariably about the potential revenue possibilities of their software and services (including present vapourware like x-platform BBM).
    07-30-13 04:02 PM
  2. danprown's Avatar
    The gentleman puts his money where his mouth is. You have to respect that.

    If you read the full article from Lavani, however, you will see some concerning things like the possibility that 14K of the 19K BES installs are in India, that the talk is now about "60 million plus" global BBM users, instead of the 70 mil plus. Again BBRY is going out to market with "partners" (We know how good the N.A. partners have been to BBRY). And the very fact that this is a new guy after the last guy was fired or quit in May...

    By the way, for the life of me, I still can't understand how BBRY manages to sound so negative when it tries to put a positive spin on things, e.g. "We are not in TROUBLE" quote ( I call this the "I-do-not-BEAT-MY-WIFE" gaffe).
    Compare with: "We will BEAT expectations", "We are doing GREAT (in enterprise)", "We are ON TRACK", etc.

    So, are you saying that you know about the health of BlackBerry more than its executive?

    Posted via CB10
    plasmid_boy, Geeoff, gg22 and 1 others like this.
    07-30-13 04:06 PM
  3. shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex's Avatar
    Fairfax or Prem can't change fundamentals/sales/traction of BBRY the only thing he can do it's to say " I see the share soon over $55.00 (or any numbers) & we will make money"

    It's just to buy time, cause it's a fund and he can't come & say:"You know, I doubled down & I was wrong !!!"

    When he will write off BBRY (take loss) he will have VERY good gain in others company in the fund, so this way the Faifax shareholders will look more at the profit than loss & they will forgive the BBRY loss. Don't forget also Prem have a BIG ego... ;-)

    Regards
    Thanks for the explanation. I thought since they have such large BBRY holdings their words alone could have a pretty big effect on the share price.

    Edit: No share pop today anyway. Open $8.67. Close $8.70 (+0.35%).
    07-30-13 04:08 PM
  4. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    They certainly did have a profitable hardware business for quite a while.

    Attachment 187522

    Had.

    All negative quarters as far as the eye can see.
    Doesn't you chart support my believe that 'BB has always been more software than hardware'? If so, then I am not sure what your point is.

    Feel free to look up consensus earnings estimates for the next couple of years.
    Some people go by what others tell them, some like to make their own paths. Most people follow consensus because it is the saftest path, or they can't think for themselves.

    All negative quarters as far as the eye can see.
    Different eyes looking at the same object might see different things - that's what separates the grass from trees.
    07-30-13 04:19 PM
  5. Otech#CB's Avatar
    There's a saying, "If you work at it, you can be where you want to be." If Blackberry works real hard as they have been doing for the past months, they can become a good hardware company again. They went down big for a year.
    07-30-13 04:19 PM
  6. greyw0lf01's Avatar
    So today finished as an inverted hammer... long upper wick... wonder what tomm holds, those can sometimes signal a reversal.

    I took a quick look at quick 30 min chart and a couple things popped out:

    Double bottom within a descending triangle... As a pure speculation play, I would consider getting in on a close above $8.92 thats not a doji or other ambiguous candle. I have little interest in a short or should that double bottom fail... I think the short side of the trade is crowded even with a reduction in the short interest.

    I think Fridays nonfarm payroll numbers could be hairy so I wouldnt take a long position before then.

    Just a crazy speculative trade idea, not a trade recommendation!
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-desc-triange-double-bottom.jpg  
    kadakn01 likes this.
    07-30-13 04:31 PM
  7. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    I am unable to make sense of your comment. Please enlighten at least me and perhaps us. The chart shows a formerly profitable hardware segment that is now (or at least a few months ago when BBRY FYI 2013 ended) in the red. This historical data, combined with consensus earnings estimates that are also red for many, many quarters to come, indicate to me that hardware is, at the very least, in ICU with plenty of tubes attached. BB10 devices are... not exactly setting the world on fire.

    When any optimism is expressed about BBRY these days, it is almost invariably about the potential revenue possibilities of their software and services (including present vapourware like x-platform BBM).
    Feel free to look up consensus earnings estimates for the next couple of years. All negative quarters as far as the eye can see.



    And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?

    I was referring to the consensus estimates being wrong more times than being right. (with respect to Blackberry)

    I guess you missed the chart posted a couple of days ago on this same thread that you post so often on.

    Since you refer to " This historical data, combined with consensus earnings estimates" here goes....

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry-projection.jpg

    From what I can see....... Blackberry missed expectations 5 times since Q4 Fy10. (red arrows)
    What I also see is....... hold your breath.... Blackberry EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS 9 times (green arrows)

    And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?
    07-30-13 04:39 PM
  8. kfh227's Avatar
    That India install number might be based on old data. If he said 21,000 this discussion would not exist

    Posted via CB10
    07-30-13 04:52 PM
  9. JLagoon's Avatar
    Today is the twenty second day of downtrend. Still low volume, closed at $8.70.

    Bullish interpretation:
    The stock did not create a new low. The green circle on the daily chart DMI indicator for the orange line shows selling pressure, and the blue line shows buying pressure. At least, the selling pressure declined a bit. As you can see on the daily chart, the candle of today is an inverted hammer. This one has a pretty long top wick, so just a small hope of reversal. Nevertheless, we need a confirmation tomorrow for this inverted hammer. You may notice as well that a similar candle is found on 7/9/2013, when the annual shareholder's meeting occurred, and the reversal was not confirmed on 7/10/2013. A confirmation would require a bullish engulfing green candle. If we were to have this confirmation, then the blue line on the DMI indicator would start to curve upward.

    What I mentioned yesterday is also still in play: "So, a possibility is that in the next 5 [now 4] trading days, the MACD is going to cycle down, and the stoch. RSI is going to be at the bottom as well. When both are at the bottom, then this is the alignment that "makes sense" for both to curve upward, and see the stock go up."

    Bearish interpretation:
    If the we don't have a confirmation of the reversal tomorrow, then the following: On the 30 minute chart, you can see that the stock action ends up, where my first black arrow is. This is not a re-draw. $8.90 became resistance.

    Given my main bearish interpretation is still the same, here is a repeat of what I said yesterday: "We are in a clear parallel downtrend channel, and have had 2 main cycles. Each cycle lasted about 5 days, and each cycle dropped by $0.30. Next drop would be $8.30 on end of day August 2 (Friday) or the first trading hour on August 5 (monday). See the 30 minute chart. Will this pattern repeat? No one knows."

    Wildcard:
    - Fairfax ER August 1, Thursday, at 8:30 EDT.
    - Wash sale theory.
    - Tomorrow is end of month. Hi Morgan; do institutions / traders, usually, do sell of end of month, July, specifically?

    30 minute:
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2013-07-30-4.21.38-pm.jpg

    Daily:
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2013-07-30-4.33.04-pm.jpg

    An interesting observation on the 5 minute chart:
    I haven't noticed these, relatively, 15 minute apart buying interval since 6/29/2013--black circles. This could be a new buyer or some shorts covering. The sum seems to be around 250,000.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2013-07-30-4.37.25-pm.jpg
    07-30-13 05:14 PM
  10. Mikhou's Avatar
    Google?
    Its IPO price was $80. It was over $100 the next day or within a week. Something like that. It's well above that now.

    Posted via CB10
    U are Right AFTER... EZ to say after you know... The week before GOOG IPO nobody was knowing.. they even slashed the previous IPO Price Google slashes IPO value

    Right @ the Open it was Over $100/Share Only "invited" paid $85/share.

    On first 2 week it run up to $110 and on the third week you can bought it EZ for $98-99 (10% less)



    You look what you wanna look... the only thing REALLY sure is that 90% of IPO are OVERPRICED & emotional peoples buy with the fear that's THE OCCASION...and that later it will be to late...

    Regards
    07-30-13 05:16 PM
  11. cgk's Avatar
    That India install number might be based on old data. If he said 21,000 this discussion would not exist

    Posted via CB10
    I would stick to what Heins said he includes downloads in his total to make it very difficult to work out what is actually going on - this is actually now the critical bit. For me, the hardware side of the business is done, it is not coming back, value going forward is in services - so if at the next call if he is still trying to obscure things with talk of downloads, it would be a problem.
    07-30-13 05:17 PM
  12. peter9477's Avatar
    From what I can see....... Blackberry missed expectations 5 times since Q4 Fy10. (red arrows)
    What I also see is....... hold your breath.... Blackberry EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS 9 times (green arrows)
    And the most recent miss was the narrowest miss ever.

    And, of course, that's the reason why the stock tanked 30% afterwards.

    Er... right?
    07-30-13 05:18 PM
  13. notfanboy's Avatar
    I would stick to what Heins said he includes downloads in his total to make it very difficult to work out what is actually going on - this is actually now the critical bit. For me, the hardware side of the business is done, it is not coming back, value going forward is in services - so if at the next call if he is still trying to obscure things with talk of downloads, it would be a problem.
    I really think these kinds of waffling statements by Heins hurt them a lot more than it helps. Take a look at the following excerpt from the latest earnings report.

    At the time of BlackBerry Live in May, we had 12,000 companies that had either ordered, downloaded, or installed BES 10. Today, this base has grown to 18,000, a clear indication of the strong enterprise interest in the BlackBerry platform.

    While the enterprise environment requires a longer sales cycle than consumer-only-focused devices, the successful adoption of BES 10 remains an important driver for future unit sales and service revenue opportunities. Sixty percent of BlackBerry?s Fortune 500 customers have already ordered, downloaded, or installed BES 10.

    And another way we look at the strong interest in BES 10 is by vertical markets, which demonstrates the broad enterprise appeal of our platform. Based on third-party sources ranking size of companies by industry, BES 10 has already been ordered, downloaded, or installed by three of the top 10 companies in leisure and hospitality, four of the top 10 companies in retail, five of the top 10 financial institutions, three of the top 10 companies in construction, four of the top 10 companies in communications, and six of the top 10 companies in healthcare.
    Doesn't Heins realize how obvious this ruse is? His intent was to brag about something but the effect was to instantly cast doubt on his claims. There are lots of other examples of corporate doublespeak in the earnings report. This has the opposite effect of instilling confidence.
    danprown likes this.
    07-30-13 05:26 PM
  14. Komoto's Avatar
    I don't know why people keep using historical data pre BlackBerry 10 launch to try to show that BlackBerry model is flawed.

    Do people not understand that this was realised and that is why they have remodeled the company, hence the transition phase.

    Yeah sure, pre BlackBerry 10 hardware was loosing money because it was bad and they were willing to sell low to get subscribers.

    Now with BlackBerry 10 that has flipped, margins are back with little or no service revenue. Amazes me sometimes.

    This is why the Indian stated there is nothing wrong, not with the previous model, they are in the process of transitioning!

    Posted via CB10
    07-30-13 05:40 PM
  15. shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex's Avatar


    And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?

    I was referring to the consensus estimates being wrong more times than being right. (with respect to Blackberry)

    I guess you missed the chart posted a couple of days ago on this same thread that you post so often on.

    Since you refer to " This historical data, combined with consensus earnings estimates" here goes....

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	bbry projection.jpg 
Views:	797 
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ID:	187552

    From what I can see....... Blackberry missed expectations 5 times since Q4 Fy10. (red arrows)
    What I also see is....... hold your breath.... Blackberry EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS 9 times (green arrows)

    And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?
    Nice chart, too bad it isn't the one I posted. The chart I posted and that you commented on is historical data. Facts. Not consensus estimates.

    You said "And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?".

    See the problem? I posted a factual, historical chart. You look at this chart (actually the only chart I posted) and go on about how it tells you consensus estimates have been wrong a lot of times for BBRY.

    Does not compute. If you had referred to my discussion of the chart where I referred to future consensus estimates there may have been at least the possibility that you had a coherent point.

    Even better, if I had actually posted a chart of these future (or past I suppose) consensus estimates of BBRY losses stretching to the horizon like this:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry_epss.jpeg

    Or this
    BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Earnings Forecast - NASDAQ.com
    (Ouch. Consensus of -$1.78 EPS in February 2016. Makes the dime loss last month seem not so bad.)

    then your comment may at least have made sense. Whether it would have been a valid point would still be debatable, of course.

    Here is the historical data, not consensus estimates I posted and you erroneously commented on again:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bb-gross-profits.png

    Understand now?

    Sorry, I'd love to chat more but my BBRY shift was over ten minutes ago. I single-handedly beat back a 4% rally to 0.35%. I think I earned my caviar and Dom Perignon for dinner. I also still have the night shift over at the sleeper cell conspiring against AAPL. Or is it GOOG tonight? I'll have to check my calendar when I get to the Maserati.
    07-30-13 05:50 PM
  16. W Hoa's Avatar
    I really think these kinds of waffling statements by Heins hurt them a lot more than it helps. Take a look at the following excerpt from the latest earnings
    report. BES 10 has already been ordered, downloaded, or installed ....

    Doesn't Heins realize how obvious this ruse is? His intent was to brag about something but the effect was to instantly cast doubt on his claims. There are lots of other examples
    of corporate doublespeak in the earnings report. This has the opposite effect of instilling confidence.
    Apple, and I suppose Tim Cook, have had a much longer running drama with the iphone/ipad. I'm sure Samsung with Knox 'coming soon' may fit your 'ruse' category. They all do it and in the case of Apple it takes years 'testing and deploying.'

    From 2010 - "Jul 27, 2010 - ... In fact, over 60% of the Fortune 500 are deploying or piloting iPhone."
    From 2011 - "Apr 21, 2011 - iPhone is continuing to see strong growth within the enterprise segment. Today, 88% of the Fortune 500 are testing or deploying iPhone"
    From 2012 - "Oct 4, 2012 - ... call with analysts that 93% of the Fortune 500 are testing or deploying the iPhone; ."
    From 2013 - "May 17, 2013 - “With iPhone and iPad being tested or deployed in almost every Fortune 500 company".
    07-30-13 06:04 PM
  17. dusdal's Avatar
    Nice chart, too bad it isn't the one I posted. The chart I posted and that you commented on is historical data. Facts. Not consensus estimates.

    You said "And isn't it true that if you look at the same chart, it will tell you that the consensus estimates have been wrong far more times than they have been right ?".

    See the problem? I posted a factual, historical chart. You look at this chart (actually the only chart I posted) and go on about how it tells you consensus estimates have been wrong a lot of times for BBRY.

    Does not compute. If you had referred to my discussion of the chart where I referred to future consensus estimates there may have been at least the possibility that you had a coherent point.

    Even better, if I had actually posted a chart of these future (or past I suppose) consensus estimates of BBRY losses stretching to the horizon like this:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	BBRY_epss.jpeg 
Views:	466 
Size:	15.8 KB 
ID:	187569

    Or this
    BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Earnings Forecast - NASDAQ.com
    (Ouch. Consensus of -$1.78 EPS in February 2016. Makes the dime loss last month seem not so bad.)

    then your comment may at least have made sense. Whether it would have been a valid point would still be debatable, of course.

    Here is the historical data, not consensus estimates I posted and you erroneously commented on again:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	BB-gross-profits.png 
Views:	466 
Size:	55.1 KB 
ID:	187570

    Understand now?

    Sorry, I'd love to chat more but my BBRY shift was over ten minutes ago. I single-handedly beat back a 4% rally to 0.35%. I think I earned my caviar and Dom Perignon for dinner. I also still have the night shift over at the sleeper cell conspiring against AAPL. Or is it GOOG tonight? I'll have to check my calendar when I get to the Maserati.
    Edit: apologies for quoting. No comment.
    07-30-13 06:23 PM
  18. bungaboy's Avatar
    This whole freakin' thread is grey now.
    Yes. They are blabbering and their lips are moving but, they aren't saying anything.
    07-30-13 06:49 PM
  19. notfanboy's Avatar
    Apple, and I suppose Tim Cook, have had a much longer running drama with the iphone/ipad. I'm sure Samsung with Knox 'coming soon' may fit your 'ruse' category. They all do it and in the case of Apple it takes years 'testing and deploying.'

    From 2010 - "Jul 27, 2010 - ... In fact, over 60% of the Fortune 500 are deploying or piloting iPhone."
    From 2011 - "Apr 21, 2011 - iPhone is continuing to see strong growth within the enterprise segment. Today, 88% of the Fortune 500 are testing or deploying iPhone"
    From 2012 - "Oct 4, 2012 - ... call with analysts that 93% of the Fortune 500 are testing or deploying the iPhone; ."
    From 2013 - "May 17, 2013 - “With iPhone and iPad being tested or deployed in almost every Fortune 500 company".
    Good point. Both CEOs are waffling and spinning in those examples. However, we must take the context into consideration.

    Let's use an analogy. Let's say a champion in their field, let's pick Muhammad Ali, talking to the press after knocking out his opponent in a championship fight. He goes on and on about how he's the greatest, how handsome he is, and a bunch of other hyperbolic BS. People just nod and tolerate this stuff.

    Now imagine a boxer battered and bleeding giving a similar spiel to the press. It just won't come off the same. The analogy is extreme but the point is that Cook was bragging from a position of power, Heins was bragging from a position of weakness. And of course people can tell the difference. What Blackberry needed was a does of honest optimism, not an obvious attempt at spin.
    danprown and cgk like this.
    07-30-13 06:53 PM
  20. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Wow, love your garage !

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    Lol
    I didn't see the garage nor the car. ..

    Posted via CB10
    Bugmapper and cjcampbell like this.
    07-30-13 06:59 PM
  21. tiziano27's Avatar
    a) The report does not refer to WorkSpace by name
    b) The report came out before WorkSpace was released and is referring to support Blackberry offered for iOS and Android phones prior to WorkSpace, which was using extremely limited 'third-party solutions to secure and containerize iOS and Android.'
    c) Blackberry has addressed all those 'cautions' since the report came out in the form of Secure WorkSpace and BES10 in the Cloud.

    Get your facts straight instead of spreading disinformation.
    Do you have something to back that up?
    Other guy said in this thread that beta test for WorkSpace started several months before the release.
    I never heard of a previous containerization solution, do you have a link to that product information?

    That's exactly what I'm trying to do, get the facts straight.
    07-30-13 07:09 PM
  22. Randeman's Avatar
    Same with me on Penn West and Pengrowth. Chased them both down to lower my average and now am big green on PW and light green to even on PG.

    I bought a bunch of energy and Canadian bank stocks in 2009 when the sky was falling and everybody was doing the chicken little dance. They all turned a VERY BRIGHT GREEN! Contrary to all the "experts".

    I am holding on BB. I can afford to and have the time to wait. Besides, it's only money.
    Same for me, except it was a boatload of American banks. All the haters swore they were going bankrupt (one did). The rest have been rocketing up. Just waited out the bumpy patches, added to my positions and sat back laughing at all the negativity.
    I have lots of time for something I believe in - like BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    07-30-13 07:45 PM
  23. Nathan Bael's Avatar
    Still bugs me, had I just waited a little longer for the HTC one - I'm sure I would have enjoyed it even more than my s3. HTC has virtually no marketing for its wonderful product. I'm thinking, if I'm not sold on the galaxy note 3 or A10 - i'm going to pick up an HTC one Successor.

    Cheers
    HTC one is well designed and feels like a quality product. HTC sense isn't my cup of tea though.
    Compaqee likes this.
    07-30-13 08:37 PM
  24. shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex's Avatar
    HTC one is well designed and feels like a quality product. HTC sense isn't my cup of tea though.
    If you are in the US it is available as an almost "pure Android" version direct from the Google Play store. Samsung GS4 too.

    AnandTech | HTC One and Samsung Galaxy S 4 Google Play edition Review - Nearly Nexus
    Compaqee likes this.
    07-30-13 09:11 PM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Have you all read Bla1zes article on a possible BBM browser function...linked to Channels (as its already Web based)?

    That would truly be world best for messaging...the business implications are significant as well.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy, cjcampbell and Compaqee like this.
    07-30-13 09:29 PM
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