View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. FocusedBerry's Avatar
    Still holding the bag here. Not going to think about what I should have done in hindsight.

    Posted via CB10
    07-27-13 11:34 AM
  2. JLagoon's Avatar
    Would covering by shorts not help to expedite the return to $14 - $15 range, before September ER, Morgan? But then again, 15 million covered and the SP is still down. I hope, for a surge of buying that would trigger all the short stop loss.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    07-27-13 11:37 AM
  3. morganplus8's Avatar
    M+8. If you placed yourself in the shoes of institutional shorts, what do you think is their exit strategy?
    Spartaction,

    I have a lot of respect for what our shorts have managed to do with BlackBerry so far. That was one heck of a bet that has paid of for them so far. I have been net short in my trading accounts at times over the years thinking that there wasn't much worth owning at the time. I still short stock and write a ton of naked puts to acquire positions in stock like IMG, BBRY etc.. So I know where they are coming from. I think they know that they control the stock for at least 2 more quarters here. There is no hurry to cover their position unless they see something more interesting to divert their funds to. As was the case with many over companies in the past, at some point, it's time to move on. When they leave a trade, they typically don't come back to it again. So the short position, USA/CDN went down from 194 million to 170 million and we aren't sure what has happened since then. The volume suggest that the remaining 170 million are stuck in the trade today as it took well over 350 million shares just to cover 20 million shares. We can rally extremely hard to the upside with only 50 million shares short here, we don't need 170 to get o $ 30.00/shr. So there is a point where the shorts need to move on as some have.

    If I were short the stock, I would be covering over the next 6 weeks, I wouldn't wait for Q2 to come out as there are too many news events that could pop the stock needlessly. Call options are really cheap and that's one way to cap your losses so I think we will see more shorts cover down here. None of this means that a chance of a short covering rally is out the window as I don't believe that 170 shorts can cover sub $ 14.00/shr. Given the right formula, the stock can move much higher from here. You have to remember that the same news that drives a short to cover, invites new investors at a time when analysts are doing upgrades and shareholders are thinking they can hold the stock longer and get the $ 40.00/shr target they dreamed of. The rally in a stock is the result of many investors adjusting to a miss-pricing of the equity to a level that represents true value, real or conceived. Shorts are aware of this and will protect their position. Finally, shorts hold other trades as well, pairing AAPL to BBRY for the Fall isn't a bad idea.
    07-27-13 11:40 AM
  4. bigbadben10's Avatar
    JLagoon. You and Morgan are such wonderful assets to this thread. You both teach me something about investing each day. Thank you both very much!

    Ben

    Posted via CB10
    07-27-13 11:49 AM
  5. sidhuk's Avatar
    Good morning Icjr!!

    Man you guys like to put me on the spot! .
    LoL,
    couple more things Morgan.
    1. splitting any (small) part of the company before Q1 2014 would have forced every short to return the shares would have stopped the slaughter?
    2. Do you see the splitting strategy may be part of the "lining all the ducks in a row" in near future to force shorts to cover?

    thank you for your time and effort to educate some of us here. appreciate it.
    bigbadben10 and JLagoon like this.
    07-27-13 11:59 AM
  6. sidhuk's Avatar
    JLagoon. You and Morgan are such wonderful assets to this thread. You both teach me something about investing each day. Thank you both very much!

    Ben

    Posted via CB10
    ++1
    morganplus8 and JLagoon like this.
    07-27-13 12:00 PM
  7. tiziano27's Avatar
    Without the hardware business BBRY is degraded to a start-up trying to enter two crowded markets without a clear advantage to succeed.

    BlackBerry as a brand has value, and probably has more value associated with a smartphone than associated to those two new services.
    So, a good alternative could be backpedal the change of name of the company to RIM. Add Android or WP to their phone portfolio, and then sell the whole hardware/os unit, including the brand, to Huawei, Lenovo, Nokia, Microsoft, etc.

    It's important that BBRY change the association of the brand to the hardware and not the OS. They have to build a great Android or WP phone and promote it before selling the hardware unit. They could keep the brands BBM and BES for their service offer.

    An Android or WP phone branded BlackBerry would be a good signal to the market to position BES10 as a broad MDM solution and not a solution centered in BB10.
    07-27-13 12:17 PM
  8. morganplus8's Avatar
    LoL,
    couple more things Morgan.
    1. splitting any (small) part of the company before Q1 2014 would have forced every short to return the shares would have stopped the slaughter?
    2. Do you see the splitting strategy may be part of the "lining all the ducks in a row" in near future to force shorts to cover?

    thank you for your time and effort to educate some of us here. appreciate it.
    sidhuk!

    First off, love your posts! Some good work there so keep thinking outside the box. I see where you are coming from and I do believe they are looking at every possible way to capture value. Software/security/social is where its at, they could spin off that division and sell the Enterprise sector as a separate entity, while holding indirect ownership in shares. I would imagine a vote might have to take place for that to occur, maybe not though. If you want to scare shorts, you include a dividend, just about any dividend scares shorts as we hate to pay while we wait. But the biggest way to scare shorts is to create a new revenue stream! Now the P/E numbers start to fly and it can get scary, not unlike TSLA and others who hint of growth. I think they need to partner up on the hardware side and diminish the cost side of the equation. They need to call upon handsets when they need them while focusing on enterprise and social aspects of the business. Preserving capital, i.e. negate the burn of capital is the key to sending a message that the asset base will not be retracting from these levels. The holy grail of the short's argument is the cash burn, you stop that and you force them to look beyond BlackBerry. All of this is taking place but it is a year long process and one quarter is not going to tell you anything about BlackBerry's business model and what it will look like down the road. So far I believe they are doing many things in the right way, but they aren't executing fast enough for many of us today. If the stock were at $ 18.00/shr we wouldn't care if they needed 2 more quarters would we? You are right, we haven't seen any of the fruits of the research done by others as part of the new BlackBerry. I have to believe there are some radical changes coming down the road here.

    I think that many of us think we are on top of this game, we have solid backgrounds in business and we have experience in technology and investments. Yet we don't have anywhere near the experience that guys like Prem have, or Zipperstein, etc., they are a class above us here. Building a company out of the ashes is something that is ongoing every day by experts in their fields. I see it all the time and have been able to watch it happen from the inside and these guys rarely fail at achieving their goals. If you followed every move that the Baker brothers have done in the past 5-years you would be stinking rich without leaving the golf course. These guys are brilliant beyond imagination.

    Take Tourmaline Oil Corp. - TOU.TO - I met a guy who runs one of the best Funds out there today. We were both in Systems Excellence Ltd - SXT.TO, I had 165,000 shares and he had 1.5 million. He liked my comments on the company and we hit it off. That stock went from $ .33/shr to $ 54.00/shr today and we made some good money. He told me, as a parting shot to look at his next development, he and others formed TOU.TO, I didn't buy any at the time it came out at $ 20.00/shr but I knew this guy was a very good Fund manager. The stock was created, assets were bought to fill it up, they got institutions to buy the stock thus tying it all up and today it has been a great investment out of thin air. Brilliant people are doing this all the time and you just have to fine out who they are and follow them. BlackBerry is no different, the last laugh will be on the Seeking Alphas, Forbes, CNBC's of the world, they have no clue what is coming down for this company. We hear from Gesig Boek on this thread whenever something remotely smells of a BlackBerry failure. Just read what he has to say and look back on how ridiculous it sounds in the months ahead. We are getting too caught up on the day to day nonsense that is Gesig and ignoring the business model of the company itself.
    07-27-13 12:46 PM
  9. JLagoon's Avatar
    Spartaction,
    The volume suggest that the remaining 170 million are stuck in the trade today as it took well over 350 million shares just to cover 20 million shares. We can rally extremely hard to the upside with only 50 million shares short here, we don't need 170 to get o $ 30.00/shr. So there is a point where the shorts need to move on as some have.
    Hi Morgan:

    I tried to do a rough calculation of the short average SP. Could you see, if the following calculation makes sense at all?

    Based on the stats from Nasdaq that goes back to July 2012, my calculation shows $12.76 for the overall short in the period of 1 year.
    If I calculate the short average SP at $9 and below, there are 22.5 million shorted shares at $8.34.
    If I calculate the short average SP above $9, there are 87.7 million shorted shares at $11.36.

    Given that there were only 25 million shorts covered from 6/28 - 7/15, then this means that there are 62.7 million shorted shares above $9 that have not been covered. And 22.5 million at $9 and below have not covered either. The sum is around 87 million shorted shares. However, we have 160 million shorted shares, so I presume that the rest of the 80 million shorts are around $11 - $9 or perhaps lower. I cannot tell, because Nasdaq doesn't go further than 7/13/2012.

    The SP is at $8.88 now, and it seems that these are the possible scenarios:
    a. The 25 million of the shorts from the 87.7 million (above $9 short) have covered, and the 62.7 million are just waiting for max profitability.
    b. The 25 million of the shorts that have covered are from the at $9 or below range.
    c. The rest of the 80 million shorts have an average SP that is still below the current SP, and they are waiting for the SP to go down further before covering.

    The question then; how long would the shorts keep their position regardless of their average SP? What are they waiting? A rally to show that a bottom was hit?

    The spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    The screenshot of the spreadsheet:
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2013-07-27-1.40.00-pm.jpg
    bungaboy, rarsen, jxnb and 2 others like this.
    07-27-13 12:50 PM
  10. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    sidhuk!
    We hear from Gesig Boek on this thread whenever something remotely smells of a BlackBerry failure. Just read what he has to say and look back on how ridiculous it sounds in the months ahead. We are getting too caught up on the day to day nonsense that is Gesig and ignoring the business model of the company itself.
    I'm honored to be name dropped, but in my few posts I have only contributed market data and my limited opinion on them. Maybe you mistake me with some-one else, or alternatively you are not happy with what independent research companies like kantar and comscore have to say.

    I am happy however that as off the 10th of July all that statcounter shenanigans are over, in Canada at least.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    07-27-13 01:02 PM
  11. leafs123's Avatar
    Some pick up the morning paper.... some pick up their BlackBerry for some BB investor thread action. Which do you think is more interesting and informative? Lol.

    Posted via CB10
    Lol I came home from going out last night and was reading this thread at 3 am because I couldn't sleep. Maybe I didn't drink enough! Lol

    Posted via CB10
    07-27-13 01:12 PM
  12. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hi Morgan:

    I tried to do a rough calculation of the short average SP. Could you see, if the following calculation makes sense at all?


    The spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    The screenshot of the spreadsheet:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Screen Shot 2013-07-27 at 1.40.00 PM.jpg 
Views:	830 
Size:	72.1 KB 
ID:	186463
    Hi JLagoon!

    Fantastic work! You had so little to go on here so thanks for that. There is little doubt in my mind that June 28th was all about the pros locking the stock price in all day. Huge volume and yet no bounce in the price. They bought to cover all stock for sale and sold shares to anyone who wanted to day trade it, all within $ .10/shr for hours. We were seeing some major control placed on the price of the stock. If I wanted to buy 50,000 shares to day trade, they handed me those 50,000 shares, but, they capped the upside and flushed me out of that trade, by the end of the day, everyone was sitting on the sidelines wondering how to approach this trade. They effectively locked out trading in the stock. Then we saw the steady decline in the price of the stock without ever seeing a "normal" bounce, so they kept the lock on the stock going by controlling the bid/ask. So now we have the 24 million drop in shorts and wonder what happened. You have to know that they would control the price of the stock and not give anyone a chance to become optimistic about a rally. I would study the two week period post the end of June to see how they were so successful at capping the trade. Your work is great here, I can't add to your numbers, all I can say is I won't get out of bed to trade this stock for a dollar or two in potential profit in a short position, so there has to be more to it than that. Either those who are at a slight loss cover here and now, or, they are hedged with something that makes the formula work.
    bungaboy, fedakd, JLagoon and 1 others like this.
    07-27-13 01:12 PM
  13. notfanboy's Avatar
    We hear from Gesig Boek on this thread whenever something remotely smells of a BlackBerry failure. Just read what he has to say and look back on how ridiculous it sounds in the months ahead. We are getting too caught up on the day to day nonsense that is Gesig and ignoring the business model of the company itself.
    One ought to be wary of saying things that could backfire if the spotlight is turned the other way. As a matter of fact people can easily look back right now and find a great many ridiculous sounding posts from any number of people.

    Nothing wrong with this IMO, but those who indulge in this must be able to take what they dish out.
    07-27-13 01:13 PM
  14. morganplus8's Avatar
    I'm honored to be name dropped, but in my few posts I have only contributed market data and my limited opinion on them. Maybe you mistake me with some-one else, or alternatively you are not happy with what independent research companies like kantar and comscore have to say.

    I am happy however that as off the 10th of July all that statcounter shenanigans are over, in Canada at least.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    Hi Gesig!!

    And to no one's surprise, you are here!!!

    Now, to be clear, I was referencing you!!! Your claim to fame at CB is 55 posts, and, your rant on statcounter and O2 Germany!! That's it! To think that an intelligent person like you could remain focused on only two principle ideas despite all of the variables going on with this play makes me scratch my head and ask why? It's fine to be lurking in the background here, many do, but to think that you have found the death nail for BlackBerry in two issues, is where I get my moments of fun. We at the "I Support BlackBerry - I buy shares" thread enjoy all kinds of data, we like to look at "statcounter" (a battle I personally think you lost) and we know that BlackBerry isn't going to be the sole seller of handsets in the world today. Somewhere in the middle of all of this is you, a poster who is here when we need you to correct us from ourselves.

    Can you please contribute something else to the board, you know you have much more going on inside that head of yours, so tell us where you think the company is going in the next year. We feel you are letting us down with your quick shot out routine here. Thanks
    07-27-13 01:29 PM
  15. cjcampbell's Avatar
    So nice to see you back to your old self Morgan. You've been missed

    Posted via CB10
    07-27-13 01:46 PM
  16. shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex's Avatar
    "Blackberry contract loss weighs on Celestica sales."
    UPDATE 1-Blackberry contract loss weighs on Celestica sales

    The business makes networking equipment for telecom companies. I will assume this means NOC type stuff in BBRY's case.

    Of course we know that BBRY subscriber numbers are cratering which could explain the above, but aren't they supposed to be going full steam ahead with x-platform BBM, MDM (BES10) etc? Surely if this is going to work, a robust network infrastructure will have to accompany this. Even die-hard BBRY fans are largely coming around to the opinion that software and services are going to be increasingly important. Many here have openly spoke of the inevitability, even the desirability of getting out of their withering handset business entirely.
    07-27-13 02:06 PM
  17. Mikhou's Avatar
    Keep it in your Bookmark:

    Latest information about Short Float on BBRY Updated each Day ------------>

    BlackBerry Short Float Interactive Charts

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-1dnhf.jpg
    07-27-13 02:08 PM
  18. shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex's Avatar
    One ought to be wary of saying things that could backfire if the spotlight is turned the other way. As a matter of fact people can easily look back right now and find a great many ridiculous sounding posts from any number of people.

    Nothing wrong with this IMO, but those who indulge in this must be able to take what they dish out.
    You are thinking about it all wrong. Think of it as a special type of Bollinger Band. A rolling 21 day average (deviations above or below 0.5 sigma are discounted) for everyone's comments. Older data is purged, and referring to it will result in ostracization from the flock. This tight window helps greatly with group cohesion.

    I for one am pleased to know my recent specific comments about BBRY share price on Sept 26 2013 and Oct 13 2013 will never come back to bite me if my assumptions turn out to be incorrect.
    07-27-13 02:13 PM
  19. sidhuk's Avatar
    sidhuk!

    "keep thinking outside the box. .
    Thanks for you reply Morgan.
    I like the way blackberry is fighting their battles. IMO no matter how much energy and money blackberry had spent in the US markets for launch of their products, it would have the same results. I am glad that they didn't get sucked in to the media instigation and kept their cash in their pocket. blackberry already knew cell phone carrier's obligations to apple to buy certain amount of products etc. blackberry is just happy to be having carrier on board, good or bad. blackberry is focusing on the markets where it is still a successful name. people who travel the word know that world does not revolves around USA any more. however USA is still an important part of blackberry business.
    many people don't like that blackberry is too quite at this stage when it comes to releasing "A good news etc.". media negativity has passed the pre gulf war campaign. Any news and I mean any news that comes out of blackberry will be used against blackberry. so better not to have petty hyped up releases and waist extra energy there. as blackberry executes their bigger picture plans and have the real numbers to show, market will join them. remember, market is a shameless machine.
    Blackberry still trimming work force is a plus, it still have over 70million subs cash flow plus new comers with blackberry 10.
    Canada tax rebates for companies like blackberry are excellent at this stage. not forgetting that EDC and BDC are very good assets that Canadian companies have if one knows how to use them properly. blackberry is no where near closing down. EDC is huge advantage to over seas companies who dont have cash flow to grow and want to do business with Canadian companies. I am surprised why EDC wasn't involve in Venezuela issue? perhaps the payments are related to service component is the reason?
    majority of Balsillie's investment still in blackberry. I don't know any company going bankrupt without debt.
    there are people who will write articles on SA and other sites just to make $100 to $300 per article, imagine if some one paid little more to other usual suspects? It is no different than the city councilors here, majority people who run for councilors, just look at their backgrounds prior to they became councilors. yet they are in charge of making decisions which are lot more complicated than they can ever comprehend.
    that's why, majority of those articles are so life less and boring but news people have to fill so many pages every day no matter what. however, there are still some good articles. I rather learn about factual negatives first than positives.
    I purchased blackberry not for 10 or 20% profit. I invested because I liked blackberry what it has and I still remember why I invested and in no rush changing that. it is true that reading garbage every day makes me blink some times but all of that noise I take it as an opportunity to buy more. no matter what game we play, there will be winners and losers. I know about 20 to 25 names on majority of these web sites that I skip their reading their comments. because all they are doing is hijacking the actual subject being discussed and people end up spending energy defending. almost like high school debate.
    in the end, as you said, it is all about the right people at the right time. I would rather pay 5 times more for the right employee and right land than pay half for the wrong employee or wrong land.
    I do believe blackberry has the right people. otherwise cutting one billion dollars off of the expense sheet in 3 quarters while developing new products and keeping the company intact while increasing the cash position is not an easy task. and TH is not done yet. he is just starting with his usable cards and cash on hands.
    I am buying more at next opportunity.
    Kris
    07-27-13 02:19 PM
  20. sidhuk's Avatar
    Lol I came home from going out last night and was reading this thread at 3 am because I couldn't sleep. Maybe I didn't drink enough! Lol

    Posted via CB10
    I did the same at 2am and I was drunk. lol
    leafs123, bungaboy and lcjr like this.
    07-27-13 02:26 PM
  21. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Hi Gesig!!
    Now, to be clear, I was referencing you!!! Your claim to fame at CB is 55 posts, and, your rant on statcounter and O2 Germany!!
    Can you please contribute something else to the board, you know you have much more going on inside that head of yours, so tell us where you think the company is going in the next year. We feel you are letting us down with your quick shot out routine here. Thanks
    To be fair, I did not post the O2 Germany story, I just added a correction. Which is also what I do occasionally on this thread. Otherwise I am happy to just enjoy reading.

    Regarding my views, I think BB is in much bigger trouble than people really appreciate, and they have done everything possible to dig the hole deeper.Its like management is trying to kill the company.

    1) In the vast majority of the world and for the vast majority of the 70+ million subscribers BB is a low-end play, and the attraction is BBM and free internet.
    2) What does management do - price their new models very high, get rid of free internet and make BBM cross platform.

    The issue is arrogance of management and a poor understanding of their user base. If BBM ever comes to Android the user base will evaporate in only 2 or 3 quarters to phones which do more, especially given that BB10 is not compatible with BB7 apps.

    What BB should have done - port their secure environment to Android, release dirt cheap phones running Android and using BES and use BBM as an exclusive feature, and reap the profits. Its probably too late for that now.

    Has it occurred to anyone that it may be the shorts covering which is supporting the share price, and that without them the share price will drift even lower?
    morganplus8 and gg22 like this.
    07-27-13 02:28 PM
  22. leafs123's Avatar
    "Blackberry contract loss weighs on Celestica sales."
    UPDATE 1-Blackberry contract loss weighs on Celestica sales

    The business makes networking equipment for telecom companies. I will assume this means NOC type stuff in BBRY's case.

    Of course we know that BBRY subscriber numbers are cratering which could explain the above, but aren't they supposed to be going full steam ahead with x-platform BBM, MDM (BES10) etc? Surely if this is going to work, a robust network infrastructure will have to accompany this. Even die-hard BBRY fans are largely coming around to the opinion that software and services are going to be increasingly important. Many here have openly spoke of the inevitability, even the desirability of getting out of their withering handset business entirely.
    Why is Celestica relevant to post now? BlackBerry cut ties with them a year ago.

    As well, they built consumer devices for BB when they had the contract, not network and/or infrastructure equipment.
    07-27-13 02:29 PM
  23. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Has it occurred to anyone that it may be the shorts covering which is supporting the share price, and that without them the share price will drift even lower?[/QUOTE]

    Seeing as the short interest only dropped by 14 million or so, I'd go out on a limb and say no. Not considering the number of shares traded in that period. I'll also make a bet that the number actually grows for the next report. That is unless the sp makes some huge gain before the end of the month, which is technically possible, but not so sure it will happen in any meaningful sense.


    Posted via CB10
    07-27-13 02:38 PM
  24. sidhuk's Avatar
    Hi Morgan:

    I tried to do a rough calculation of the short average SP. Could you see, if the following calculation makes sense at all?

    The screenshot of the spreadsheet:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Screen Shot 2013-07-27 at 1.40.00 PM.jpg 
Views:	830 
Size:	72.1 KB 
ID:	186463
    Good work and very informative.
    IMO, shorts knew more about blackberry than longs through the last earning report. these are not average shorts blackberry dealing with. there has to a be an inside leak IMO to bet that much money on the table and that part scares me to go heavy on purchasing more. why there are 160 million shorts at these prices? can some one brain storm?
    morganplus8, bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    07-27-13 02:45 PM
  25. FocusedBerry's Avatar
    The short positions are sourced from various funds (I bet pension) and there is no way they can risk to afford that type of money. They want BlackBerry to go bankrupt.
    07-27-13 02:48 PM
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