View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1107. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. cjcampbell's Avatar
    That projection may also keep BB from getting bashed so hard on the next ER.
    Well at least this time there aren't going to be any astronomical expectations to raise the street estimates.
    Korepab, lcjr, Bugmapper and 4 others like this.
    07-23-13 09:53 PM
  2. lcjr's Avatar
    Agreed, it will soften the blow... That and the 3 step plan outlined. But what about BB10 sales/added user base for Q2?
    Are the other competitors listing that data on their ERs? I know you have to list how you're spending your money and devices or products sold, to include any losses, but do they have to tell everything? What about not listing subscriber information?
    07-23-13 10:02 PM
  3. m0de25's Avatar
    Are the other competitors listing that data on their ERs? I know you have to list how you're spending your money and devices or products sold, to include any losses, but do they have to tell everything? What about not listing subscriber information?
    Sorry, i'm not making myself clear (I'm actually taking a long walk at 11pm, and you guys are my only company... So just thinking out loud)... I'm referring strictly to unit shipment. Q1 was a disastrous 2.7m sold, just wondering what everyone's expectations are for Q2 given the somewhat positive points for sales I outlined.

    Edit: I'm also running on 3 shots of Crown since I got used in the mood for it due to an earlier post in the day, so i think I'll stop posting for the night, lol.
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-23-13 10:06 PM
  4. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Are the other competitors listing that data on their ERs? I know you have to list how you're spending your money and devices or products sold, to include any losses, but do they have to tell everything? What about not listing subscriber information?
    Sub numbers are now a thing of the past. Only shipped and a general sell through will be given.
    bungaboy, lcjr and sidhuk like this.
    07-23-13 10:08 PM
  5. lcjr's Avatar
    Sorry, i'm not making myself clear (I'm actually taking a long walk at 11pm, and you guys are my only company... So just thinking out loud)... I'm referring strictly to unit shipment. Q1 was a disastrous 2.7m sold, just wondering what everyone's expectations are for Q2 given the somewhat positive points for sales I outlined.


    Edit: I'm also running on 3 shots of Crown since I got used in the mood for it due to an earlier post in the day, lol.
    LOL, sometimes a long walk is really good for the spirit. I'm only expecting a slightly larger number for devices sold. Not addressing shipments, but actual sales. I'm counting on their software to count for something. I think the number of sales will increase later when corporations are running the software. Most people are still testing the software.
    bungaboy, sidhuk and m0de25 like this.
    07-23-13 10:13 PM
  6. kfh227's Avatar
    Well, add it to our $9 SP and we are at $20 ish.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.

    Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.

    The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.

    The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?
    Bugmapper, cgk, sidhuk and 2 others like this.
    07-23-13 10:17 PM
  7. lcjr's Avatar
    I think the reason BB is being silent is to keep the bashing to a minimum. They know they got beat up at the ER and probably put a zipper on things for a while. They already stated they have a certain number of devices to be released this year and maybe that's enough for them now. I'm just guessing, but when they talk to much they eat crow.
    07-23-13 10:24 PM
  8. kfh227's Avatar
    Sorry, i'm not making myself clear (I'm actually taking a long walk at 11pm, and you guys are my only company... So just thinking out loud)... I'm referring strictly to unit shipment. Q1 was a disastrous 2.7m sold, just wondering what everyone's expectations are for Q2 given the somewhat positive points for sales I outlined.

    Edit: I'm also running on 3 shots of Crown since I got used in the mood for it due to an earlier post in the day, so i think I'll stop posting for the night, lol.
    I'm expecting no more than 3 million BB10 phones sold in Q2. Unless the Q5 sells amazingly well, I think 3 million would blow expectations out of the water. Want to know what my Q3 and Q4 predictions are? Q3, 2.5 million. Q4, 3 million thanks to BES related sales.

    You see, unless BBRY does something truly amazing like bring thin/thick client models to market first, they are not going to experience an increase in sales. The only other amazing thing I can think of is if they find a way to support the Android market place.
    Bugmapper, m0de25 and sidhuk like this.
    07-23-13 10:28 PM
  9. kfh227's Avatar
    I think the reason BB is being silent is to keep the bashing to a minimum. They know they got beat up at the ER and probably put a zipper on things for a while. They already stated they have a certain number of devices to be released this year and maybe that's enough for them now. I'm just guessing, but when they talk to much they eat crow.
    I know they had lay offs but did that 5000 person layoff include 100% of the PR department? God, do they have a PR department? If they do, they might as well just ****-can them right now.
    Tinomane, m0de25, fedakd and 1 others like this.
    07-23-13 10:30 PM
  10. Bugmapper's Avatar
    The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.

    Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.

    The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.

    The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?
    Agree we are $20 with decent Bes10 acceptance and little hardware sales. M2M could add a few more dollars in a couple of years.

    They really don't have a choice but to partner with an Asian manufacturer to enter the low end market and Asia sales. If not I don't see more than $40 for a long time.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    m0de25 likes this.
    07-23-13 10:31 PM
  11. lcjr's Avatar
    I'm expecting no more than 3 million BB10 phones sold in Q2. Unless the Q5 sells amazingly well, I think 3 million would blow expectations out of the water. Want to know what my Q3 and Q4 predictions are? Q3, 2.5 million. Q4, 3 million thanks to BES related sales.

    You see, unless BBRY does something truly amazing like bring thin/thick client models to market first, they are not going to experience an increase in sales. The only other amazing thing I can think of is if they find a way to support the Android market place.
    You're 3 million sold is about where my predictions are as well. But I would increase your predictions on following quarters based on the following. Corporations are still testing the software (DoD just one example). Once the software proves it meets their requirements they will make the large purchase orders. My organization still uses the Bold 9930 and can't order the new phones until the implementation plan allows that. Once we get the go ahead well definitely stick with BB and order a combo of Z10 and Q10 devices. I'm positive we're not the only one in that situation.
    07-23-13 10:35 PM
  12. kfh227's Avatar
    The only other ting is BBM going cross platform. That could be huge. But I have no idea how they plan on monetizing that unless it were to bring people from Android and iOS to Blackberry. How will they make money on BBM on Android and iOS if no one comes to Blackberry after experiencing BBM?

    And speaking of BBM. It is a HUGE mistake for them to not support it via HTML 5. I pray they did the development in HTML 5 so they can bring it to the desktop also. Facebook and all those other social media apps are more than just smartphones. They also have a web presence so they are on almost any device you could imaging.
    m0de25, bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    07-23-13 10:36 PM
  13. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.

    Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.

    The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.

    The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?
    Yeah, I think the next ER will be the most important in BB history, as it seems that nobody wants to make any positive predictions; which is why I am bullish on the next ER.
    m0de25, bungaboy and sidhuk like this.
    07-23-13 10:37 PM
  14. lcjr's Avatar
    I know they had lay offs but did that 5000 person layoff include 100% of the PR department? God, do they have a PR department? If they do, they might as well just ****-can them right now.
    Dang, that would be bad seeing they just recently fired their last PR team they had for 6 years. If I was the lead for that new team I'd be looking at lessons learned from the last team and not make the same mistakes.
    07-23-13 10:38 PM
  15. m0de25's Avatar
    ...
    Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems...
    Well, I think we can pretty much agree that if we are waiting for some kind of truly revolutionary breakthrough that would completely blindside Apple or Google, then, yes, we may have been kidding ourselves all of this time... Unless BB is just biding it's time...

    http://www.technologyreview.com/news...tum-computing/

    If Mike and company win that race, BB will benefit by osmosis at the very least. After all, he is the one that pushed QNX so what if he has a bigger plan? Pie in the sky dreaming, Koolaid with vodka but anything is possible.
    07-23-13 10:39 PM
  16. Bugmapper's Avatar
    The only other ting is BBM going cross platform. That could be huge. But I have no idea how they plan on monetizing that unless it were to bring people from Android and iOS to Blackberry. How will they make money on BBM on Android and iOS if no one comes to Blackberry after experiencing BBM?

    And speaking of BBM. It is a HUGE mistake for them to not support it via HTML 5. I pray they did the development in HTML 5 so they can bring it to the desktop also. Facebook and all those other social media apps are more than just smartphones. They also have a web presence so they are on almost any device you could imaging.
    Yes!!! BlackBerry needs to move to desktop support.

    BBM Is likely just a cross platform ad for BlackBerry for a couple of years. I figure that if you buy a BlackBerry phone then BBM should be free and clear of ads, and if you are on another platform then you either pay a couple of bucks, or you get ads.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-23-13 10:46 PM
  17. m0de25's Avatar
    Ok guys, if I don't start power walking right now, I'll get home from my walk at 2am. Have a great nite, all!
    07-23-13 10:46 PM
  18. kfh227's Avatar
    You're 3 million sold is about where my predictions are as well. But I would increase your predictions on following quarters based on the following. Corporations are still testing the software (DoD just one example). Once the software proves it meets their requirements they will make the large purchase orders. My organization still uses the Bold 9930 and can't order the new phones until the implementation plan allows that. Once we get the go ahead well definitely stick with BB and order a combo of Z10 and Q10 devices. I'm positive we're not the only one in that situation.
    For the USA only:
    I tried to guesstimate how many employees will have phones under a MDM solution. I figure 16 million users will be under BES in 3 years. Even if 10% of those phones are BB10, that's only 1.6 million phones. I'll be optimistic. The USA population is 5% of the world. So a 20x multiple on 1.6 million phones is a gross overestimate of expectations. Anyway, 32 million BB10 phones worldwide might be under BES. Assuming a 2 year life span, that's 16 million sold to corporations each year. Even if governemnts were to double these numbers, it's still a grim outlook.

    And we keep ignoring the sad truth. Smartphones are transitioning into a commodity. They are going to get less and less expensive and margins are going to get crushed. When high end Androids sell for $300 in 2 years time, what will BB10 phones sell for and at what profit margin?

    I knew this commoditization was coming but I did not think it would have started already. It's already starting. All this hype on the Motorola Moto X is over a mid-tier phone.
    lcjr likes this.
    07-23-13 10:47 PM
  19. kfh227's Avatar
    Yes!!! BlackBerry needs to move to desktop support.

    BBM Is likely just a cross platform ad for BlackBerry for a couple of years. I figure that if you buy a BlackBerry phone then BBM should be free and clear of ads, and if you are on another platform then you either pay a couple of bucks, or you get ads.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    I thought i read that they were going to charge for things like video streaming. Less bandwidth exhaustive things would be free.
    Bugmapper likes this.
    07-23-13 10:51 PM
  20. lcjr's Avatar
    For the USA only:
    I tried to guesstimate how many employees will have phones under a MDM solution. I figure 16 million users will be under BES in 3 years. Even if 10% of those phones are BB10, that's only 1.6 million phones. I'll be optimistic. The USA population is 5% of the world. So a 20x multiple on 1.6 million phones is a gross overestimate of expectations. Anyway, 32 million BB10 phones worldwide might be under BES. Assuming a 2 year life span, that's 16 million sold to corporations each year. Even if governemnts were to double these numbers, it's still a grim outlook.

    And we keep ignoring the sad truth. Smartphones are transitioning into a commodity. They are going to get less and less expensive and margins are going to get crushed. When high end Androids sell for $300 in 2 years time, what will BB10 phones sell for and at what profit margin?

    I knew this commoditization was coming but I did not think it would have started already. It's already starting. All this hype on the Motorola Moto X is over a mid-tier phone.
    I'm not going to disagree with that, everything in tech is becoming more affordable. That's why I'm hoping BB eventually goes to software only. They need to be the company that everyone goes to and pays the price for mobile security. This bleeds over to QNX as well, just unsure how they will make money on that right now.
    07-23-13 10:57 PM
  21. Andrew4life's Avatar
    Quick reality check.
    BlackBerry reported a loss of under $100 Million last quarter. Say BlackBerry continues to lose money at twice that rate of $200 Million per quarter.
    With their current stock pile of cash of $3 Billion, it will take 15 quarter before BlackBerry goes bankrupt. In human years, thats just under 4 years.
    So regardless of how well BlackBerry continues to do. They're not going to go away any time soon. (though to some people 4 years can be considered "soon")

    And with that, I'm signing off.

    07-23-13 11:03 PM
  22. lcjr's Avatar
    Yep, me too. Tomorrow's another day. Have a great night all.
    07-23-13 11:06 PM
  23. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.

    Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.

    The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.

    The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?
    2nd August is the Fairfax conference call, I believe. Not too far...
    07-23-13 11:14 PM
  24. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Yeah, I think the next ER will be the most important in BB history, as it seems that nobody wants to make any positive predictions; which is why I am bullish on the next ER.
    Hmm, I kind of disagree... To me the most important ER will either be December or March. Until then... I sit and twiddle my thumbs. lol.

    It's funny, sometimes I think of how my life would be if I had invested at 6 and sold at 18 last year during school... Man o man, I'd be set for the next 5 years or so and be able to do so much more... sigh, freedom. Oh well, I guess things happen for a reason.
    07-23-13 11:17 PM
  25. kfh227's Avatar
    2nd August is the Fairfax conference call, I believe. Not too far...
    What are the chances that an analyst actually asks about BBRY?
    CDM76 likes this.
    07-23-13 11:28 PM
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