View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Gekko's Avatar
    Definition of 'Home Country Bias'
    Investors' natural tendency to be most attracted to investments in domestic markets. Investors tend to focus more on their home markets and the companies that do business within these markets because they are familiar with them.

    Investopedia explains 'Home Country Bias'
    Investors who exhibits home country bias with their investment allocations tend to hold optimistic expectations about the domestic market and are either pessimistic or indifferent about foreign markets. These investors do not strongly diversify their portfolios with international market securities, which could become a weakness for their portfolios if their home-country suffers serious economic decline.
    07-20-13 07:21 PM
  2. kfh227's Avatar
    what is the catalyst that will turn this stock around? BB10 was the Hail Mary and it has summarily been rejected by the market. BB is a one trick pony and the pony is laying on the side of the road, gasping for air. BB needs a Hail Mary to save them from the Hail Mary. but what could this possibly be?
    I wouldn't call BB10 a failure. It isn't selling like the S4 but it was never expected to. It has sold about 5 million phones to date. I say 5 million because 0.7 million sold the first quarter it was available. And 2.7 million sold the next quarter. We are past the half way point of this quarter, so add 1.4 million more. We are probably at 4.8 million today.

    That's not horrible.

    The next step is BES 10. Each 10 million phones under BES should add up to $1B in revenues. The fear I have is that we will get no where near that number under management. Truth is, I have no idea what expectations should be.

    Well heck, let's look at the fortune 500:
    Fortune 500 2013: Full List - Fortune

    Data shows that 26.4 million employees work for fortune 500 companies. See attachment!
    If 1% of those people get phones, that is only 264K phones. And keep in mind that BBRY has said that 60% of the fortune 500 are testing BES. We won't get 100% of them. So, assume 60% of them. We will get 36% of the fortune 500. And 36% of 264K phones is 95K phones.

    In the fortune 500, we will probably get an additional $9.5 million in revenues each year.

    That flat out sucks. Glad I did the math though. See attachment to make up your own numbers. Thing is, the financial industry might have 10% of employees under BES while Wal-Mart has 1%. The way I set things up in Excel, you can do a per company estimate. If ods files are not supported by your PC, let me know. I use Open Office so I don't care to support xls anymore.
    Attached Files
    theRock1975 likes this.
    07-20-13 07:22 PM
  3. kfh227's Avatar
    1. 40 cent dollars? how are you calculating this?
    2. what about diversification?

    you sound like you have a little tiny bit of knowledge and that is a very dangerous thing. you know enough to be dangerous!
    40 cent dollars is a reference to value investing. In reality, most people say 50 cent dollars.

    Anyway, all it means is that as an investor, you try to find companies selling for 50 cents on the dollar. A year ago, JNJ was selling for 70 cents on the dollar. It has since corrected. The formula is simply market cap/company value. Market cap is easy. You need to determine the companies value and that's where discounted free cash flow modeling comes in. It's easier than it sounds. But takes some leg work to comprehend.

    FYI:
    Read and download Excel file at end of article:
    http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/4...ohnson-johnson
    07-20-13 07:27 PM
  4. Gekko's Avatar
    I woue.
    kudos to you for at least thinking it through and actually doing some math and asking yourself the tough honest questions. this sure beats putting on the rose colored glasses and/or sticking you head in the sand. i think even under the most optimistic assumptions - i don't see BB garnering much market share. i know it's anecdotal but i don't see any BB10 devices out there no do i know anyone that has one nor do i know of any company who has switched over. can anyone name even one Fortune 1,000 company who is issuing or has definitive plans to issue BB10 devices? or to implement BES10? shoot the messenger but if you own this stock i would be trying to figure out a way out as painlessly as possible.
    07-20-13 07:31 PM
  5. kfh227's Avatar
    I'm sorry but this explanation is just plain misdirection. Something that is true but nevertheless has no bearing on the topic at hand.

    Let's keep it simple. Prem has cash invested in BBRY stock. If he sells the stock while he is underwater, he will take a loss. Therefore the cash is sitting there doing nothing. If he were not underwater he would have invested in something else, for example a market index fund as novice investors are told to do, and he would have made a profit. This is opportunity cost.
    By what you are suggesting, a crystal ball (that works by the way) would be needed. Hindsight is always 20-20 but today you need to find what is selling for less than true value. And this was true yesterday.

    Anyway, you are just finding examples that support your conclusion.
    07-20-13 07:33 PM
  6. kfh227's Avatar
    1. 40 cent dollars? how are you calculating this?
    2. what about diversification?

    you sound like you have a little tiny bit of knowledge and that is a very dangerous thing. you know enough to be dangerous!
    Diversification is a tool for those that are not investors. people that blindly bought RIMM when it was at $150 because it must be going higher are an example of this as is anyone that bought GOOG at it's recent high.
    07-20-13 07:36 PM
  7. Gekko's Avatar
    40 cent dollars is a reference to value investing. In reality, most people say 50 cent dollars.

    Anyway, all it means is that as an investor, you try to find companies selling for 50 cents on the dollar. A year ago, JNJ was selling for 70 cents on the dollar. It has since corrected. The formula is simply market cap/company value. Market cap is easy. You need to determine the companies value and that's where discounted free cash flow modeling comes in. It's easier than it sounds. But takes some leg work to comprehend.

    FYI:
    Read and download Excel file at end of article:
    Buying Johnson & Johnson | Joe Ponzio's F Wall Street
    YES YES YES i'm familiar with these silly financial cliches!!!!! what i'm not understanding is how they relate to BBRY!!!!!! was he saying this same thing when BBRY was at $92? $62? $32? $20???? i wanted to know why it was a 40 cent dollar - did he have have some calculation to base this on?
    07-20-13 07:36 PM
  8. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    kudos to you for at least thinking it through and actually doing some math and asking yourself the tough honest questions. this sure beats putting on the rose colored glasses and/or sticking you head in the sand. i think even under the most optimistic assumptions - i don't see BB garnering much market share. i know it's anecdotal but i don't see any BB10 devices out there no do i know anyone that has one nor do i know of any company who has switched over. can anyone name even one Fortune 1,000 company who is issuing or has definitive plans to issue BB10 devices? or to implement BES10? shoot the messenger but if you own this stock i would be trying to figure out a way out as painlessly as possible.
    Seriously? I pronounce you the new king of FUD...the company states 60% of F500 are testing and you think 100% will decline.

    You just lost all credability ..
    Perhaps instead of monitoring this thread to reply FUD 20 hours a day you should get some air.

    Posted via CB10
    07-20-13 07:37 PM
  9. Gekko's Avatar
    Diversification is a tool for those that are not investors. people that blindly bought RIMM when it was at $150 because it must be going higher are an example of this as is anyone that bought GOOG at it's recent high.
    really? i would submit to you that good investors are diversified. and that gamblers/speculators make concentrated bets risking an outsize portion of their working capital - kind of like "put it all on black!" at the roulette wheel.
    07-20-13 07:41 PM
  10. Gekko's Avatar
    Seriously? I pronounce you the new king of FUD...the company states 60% of F500 are testing and you think 100% will decline.

    You just lost all credability ..
    Perhaps instead of monitoring this thread to reply FUD 20 hours a day you should get some air.

    Posted via CB10
    first of all, i question whether 60% are seriously considering BES10 - BB management are proven spinners and liars. secondly, whatever the actual percentage is, yes, i believe that most will opt for easier, more cost effective solutions.
    07-20-13 07:45 PM
  11. Nathan Bael's Avatar
    really? i would submit to you that good investors are diversified. and that gamblers/speculators make concentrated bets risking an outsize portion of their working capital - kind of like "put it all on black!" at the roulette wheel.
    Putting it all on black would be a diversified bet. It pays less but has close to 50% chance of winning. I think you meant putting it all on one number or betting 2 or 4 squares.
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    07-20-13 07:51 PM
  12. kfh227's Avatar
    really? i would submit to you that good investors are diversified. and that gamblers/speculators make concentrated bets risking an outsize portion of their working capital - kind of like "put it all on black!" at the roulette wheel.
    Good investors don't need more than 5 investments. The reason articles and brokers say numbers like 30 is because most people are not very good at investment. Diversification for these people basically makes their portfolio mirror major indices. Not to mention that more stocks create more commissions for brokers and articles say this because their advertisers are happy when the clients sent to them by magazines are brain washed into high commission investment models.

    I guess I should clarify that broad diversification is not needed if you know what you are doing. I would be more than willing to put every penny I have into JNJ for the right price (given that no other opportunities out there exist).

    many famous investors like Buffett say that you shouldn't put 1% of your money into a company if you wouldn't be willing to put 100% of it in.

    Rule #1: Don't loose money
    Rule #2: Don't loose money
    Rule #3: Don't forget rules #1 and #2
    07-20-13 07:51 PM
  13. Gekko's Avatar
    Per BB, there are approx. that many evaluation installs of BES10, but that doesn't mean that anywhere close to that many are actually in the production environment. Many businesses (often one IT guy in a business) downloaded and installed it (free eval for a year) with no real intention of actually deploying it. BB has not shared any numbers of BES10 servers in production.

    The hope was that people with BES7 servers would all move to BES10, to manage their BB10 devices along with iOS and Android (since most companies are either going BYOD, or having multiple device options), but it seems that most companies aren't moving to BB10 at all, and are just migrating from BB7 straight to iOS/Android.

    BES10's only differentiating feature is being able to manage BB10 devices, so if a company isn't adopting BB10, there's no reason for them to use BES10 over a competing MDM software that manages iOS/Android just fine. That's why it was so critical to BBRY's success to do well with BB10 adoption: other lines of business are tied to BB10's success. Unfortunately, BB10 has fared poorly in the market so far, which means that expectations for BES10 can't be very high either.

    "Tested" means someone downloaded BES10 and installed it on a server. That could be a Fortune 500 company doing an official evaluation, a single IT guy who did it on his own to evaluate for a future MDM proposal, or it could be a tech-savvy plumber in Racine, WI who bought a Z10 and wants to see if BES10 would be useful for his 10-person small business. There's no way to know. While it shows interest/curiosity, it certainly doesn't show REVENUE for BBRY.

    What matters are paid accounts. BBRY hasn't given any numbers on those to anyone.

    Those companies who are going to roll out BB10 devices are likely to be the majority of BES10 adopters, because they are the only ones for whom BES10 will have an advantage over other MDM products. Companies moving to iOS/Android only can (and likely will) use one of the market leader's MDM products instead. Why wouldn't they? In most cases, those other MDM companies focus solely on MDM, and don't have the BBRY stigma attached to them that comes with stock market losses, talks of take-overs, and other bad press.

    BB10 devices have to sell well in order to sell BES10, and to date, they haven't.
    07-20-13 07:56 PM
  14. Gekko's Avatar
    Good investors don't need more than 5 investments. The reason articles and brokers say numbers like 30 is because most people are not very good at investment. Diversification for these people basically makes their portfolio mirror major indices. Not to mention that more stocks create more commissions for brokers and articles say this because their advertisers are happy when the clients sent to them by magazines are brain washed into high commission investment models.

    I guess I should clarify that broad diversification is not needed if you know what you are doing. I would be more than willing to put every penny I have into JNJ for the right price (given that no other opportunities out there exist).

    many famous investors like Buffett say that you shouldn't put 1% of your money into a company if you wouldn't be willing to put 100% of it in.

    Rule #1: Don't loose money
    Rule #2: Don't loose money
    Rule #3: Don't forget rules #1 and #2
    we'll have to agree to disagree. i believe that you need to own a lot more than 5 stocks in order to be diversified. hence, i'm an Indexer.
    07-20-13 07:58 PM
  15. Gekko's Avatar
    Putting it all on black would be a diversified bet. It pays less but has close to 50% chance of winning. I think you meant putting it all on one number or betting 2 or 4 squares.
    i wouldn't say making one big bet betting everything on one event happening (hitting black) is a diversified bet. but perhaps the casino analogy is a bad analogy. the bottom line is you want to spread the risk out over many stocks - that's why i like Indexing.
    07-20-13 08:02 PM
  16. sidhuk's Avatar
    You are so right. My bad.

    Posted via CB10
    okkk, Strike one. LoL
    cjcampbell and bungaboy like this.
    07-20-13 08:02 PM
  17. Gekko's Avatar
    i knew some canadians that got burned badly on NORTEL and JDSU. they let their silly nationalism, pride, and home country bias cloud their judgment. i think i see a lot of canadians in this thread. be careful of making the same mistake.
    07-20-13 08:07 PM
  18. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    first of all, i question whether 60% are seriously considering BES10 - BB management are proven spinners and liars. secondly, whatever the actual percentage is, yes, i believe that most will opt for easier, more cost effective solutions.
    Well I guess (not a coincidence I'm using that word) you don't have any evidence or research to corroborate that statement.

    I will not go back and quote all your previous statements chastising some others for supposed "gut" feeling reply's either.

    Have you ever considered perhaps other than The Kid and one or two others the majority on this thread invest our "long shot" portion of funds here?

    Posted via CB10
    07-20-13 08:14 PM
  19. _dimi_'s Avatar
    i knew some canadians that got burned badly on NORTEL and JDSU. they let their silly nationalism, pride, and home country bias cloud their judgment. i think i see a lot of canadians in this thread. be careful of making the same mistake.
    Is it you, Jesus?

    Posted via CB10
    07-20-13 08:15 PM
  20. app_Developer's Avatar
    i knew some canadians that got burned badly on NORTEL and JDSU. they let their silly nationalism, pride, and home country bias cloud their judgment. i think i see a lot of canadians in this thread. be careful of making the same mistake.
    My personal rule has always been this: if you really care if a company wins or loses, then go work there and never think of investing in it. If you think they will succeed, but don't really care if they do, then by all means invest but never think of working there. (this doesn't apply to starting your own company, obviously)
    07-20-13 08:17 PM
  21. Gekko's Avatar
    Is it you, Jesus?

    Posted via CB10
    ha! now that was funny!

    i'm here to save you from yourselves!!! now go forth and sin no more!!!
    07-20-13 08:18 PM
  22. Gekko's Avatar
    Have you ever considered perhaps other than The Kid and one or two others the majority on this thread invest our "long shot" portion of funds here?

    Posted via CB10
    this is a very good point. i hope this is the case - that most of you are only playing with money that you can afford to lose. i guess the kid scared me when he said he invested all of his entire hard earned life savings ~$40,000 in the stock and still lives at home with the parents. i hate to see people lose their hard earned money. but you are gambling nonetheless - and i would recommend going to the casino instead - at least you'll get some free drinks and comps for your trouble.
    07-20-13 08:26 PM
  23. _dimi_'s Avatar
    this is a very good point. i hope this is the case - that most of you are only playing with money that you can afford to lose. i guess the kid scared me when he said he invested all of his entire hard earned life savings ~$40,000 in the stock and still lives at home with the parents. i hate to see people lose their hard earned money. but you are gambling nonetheless - and i would recommend going to the casino instead - at least you'll get some free drinks and comps for your trouble.
    Lol, it's too obvious man..

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8 and cjcampbell like this.
    07-20-13 08:32 PM
  24. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Gang, sorry to interrupt the multi-page discussion.
    I took my kids to McDonalds for some chicken nuggets the other day. I placed my phone on the counter as I opened my wallet to pay for the meal. The cashier behind the counter immediately asked "is that the new Z10?". I said "yes, it is". He continued "how do you like?". "I like it a lot" I said. Then he said "yeah, that's going to by my next phone."

    The cashier was a young guy, probably in his 20s. This was in the MidWest USA. So, I guess that people are getting more aware of BB10. Oh, BTW, his current is the S3.

    Cheers everybody.
    07-20-13 08:46 PM
  25. peter9477's Avatar
    So.... I am led to believe that some people are really missing something when they log in to CB and start posting on threads without reading the titles of the threads.

    Or am I the one who is missing something?
    Yes, you're missing the fact that -- though some people are too quick to call "troll", and though some negativity isn't trolling, and though some apparent trolls merely have poor social skills -- there are in fact also actual trolls. We've got at least two lately who've taken up residence, and who are clearly intent on generating constant strife.

    Thankfully there is an Ignore feature, and it basically does work (though not yet on CB10).

    I'm loath to use Ignore actually, because it's not my nature to tune out contrary views. Once people demonstrate a clear intent not actually to debate, however, but merely to harangue then they've crossed a line and lose all legitimacy, even if their thoughts would otherwise be worth considering. Argument by repetition is logically fallacious, and socially repugnant.
    07-20-13 08:48 PM
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