View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. plane6065's Avatar
    I'm with ya Kid. Always wanted to explore Japan with my GF! Bucket List!

    Posted via CB10
    It's awsome country. Been there about 6 times. My gf is Japanese, so I have an interpreter when I go next time :-)


    Posted via CB10
    bigbadben10 likes this.
    07-19-13 09:08 PM
  2. bigbadben10's Avatar
    You are a lucky man! One day I hope to experience that culturally

    The west can learn so much from these customs!

    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 09:16 PM
  3. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    Even Billionaires can be wrong. sometimes fatally.
    Very true.
    I hear there was a billionaire who killed himself over some Porsche shares....
    Last edited by BlackistheBerry; 07-19-13 at 09:59 PM.
    peter9477 likes this.
    07-19-13 09:18 PM
  4. Gekko's Avatar
    Very true.
    I hear there was a billionaire who killed himself over some Porches shares....
    Adolf Merckle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    07-19-13 09:24 PM
  5. plane6065's Avatar
    You are a lucky man! One day I hope to experience that culturally

    The west can learn so much from these customs!

    Posted via CB10
    Thank you! I love the food and culture, though they have some faults like every country. I hope can visit there someday

    Posted via CB10
    Kid Vibe and bigbadben10 like this.
    07-19-13 09:24 PM
  6. peter9477's Avatar
    Some more on averaging down: Buying Stocks When The Price Goes Down: Big Mistake?

    Read the whole thing, as it's written in a fairly neutral fashion with good points on either side of the equation. Don't take just one paragraph out of the context of the whole article.
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    07-19-13 09:25 PM
  7. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Thank you! I love the food and culture, though they have some faults like every country. I hope can visit there someday

    Posted via CB10
    Yea, I hope to work in Tokyo for a year or so one day in the future. Probably be within the next couple years as I can apply for a working holiday visa before I'm 30. Would love to get the language down packed too! Hell, maybe one day, if BB becomes successful we will see them over there again! I saw a few BB's but mostly expats doing business...
    bigbadben10 likes this.
    07-19-13 09:26 PM
  8. danprown's Avatar
    "Quote Originally Posted by Charles Martin1 View Post
    The management team said that demand was much better than expected. We've been lied to. They weren't just quiet, they lied. Trust is gone.
    What helps me make my decision to leave is that I made a sh!tload off of my BCM today and a lot of my other stocks are green.
    I just sold off. All the best!"

    You may believe in a "company," its balance sheet and products, but when you have no trust in the management...

    If you owned a struggling cell phone company and tomorrow TH, FB, and KT applied for CEO, CMO, and COO, respectively, would you hire them? Would you trust them with your investment?

    So what ever became of Charles?? Have not seen or heard from him since 6/28

    Posted via CB10
    Kid Vibe and Shanerredflag like this.
    07-19-13 09:27 PM
  9. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Ugh. I liked the old trolls better. At least they were funny. This is just sad.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    07-19-13 09:47 PM
  10. heymaggie's Avatar
    YOLO, for better or worse is a foreign concept to me. I've studied, worked, and saved for almost three decades since high school saving a couple million dollars (paper earnings so who knows?) during that time. You don't have to envy me. I take about a week of vacation per year, have never flown anything other than coach, and bought my first car with leather seats a few years ago. I've never been to Japan nor anywhere near there. Most of my clothes and my food come from Costco.

    Like some here, I invest in mostly index funds and allocate less than 5% of my portfolio to play with individual stocks. I don't think my track record is very good with them. 2009 wasn't too much fun as most investors saw multiple years of income vanish. Fortunately, I was young enough that I didn't panic.

    People who retired into that market took a significant hit in lifestyle or went back to work. It's one thing to have everything you've ever earned in the stock market but another thing, entirely, to have everything you will ever earn in it. I envy those who have youth on their side.

    I guess my message is that if you're really a long term investor, what goes on here with BBRY shouldn't matter too much. This is trading. Don't confuse it with saving.
    Last edited by heymaggie; 07-19-13 at 09:58 PM.
    Kid Vibe, CDM76, bungaboy and 1 others like this.
    07-19-13 09:48 PM
  11. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    "Quote Originally Posted by Charles Martin1 View Post
    The management team said that demand was much better than expected. We've been lied to. They weren't just quiet, they lied. Trust is gone.
    What helps me make my decision to leave is that I made a sh!tload off of my BCM today and a lot of my other stocks are green.
    I just sold off. All the best!"

    You may believe in a "company," its balance sheet and products, but when you have no trust in the management...

    If you owned a struggling cell phone company and tomorrow TH, FB, and KT applied for CEO, CMO, and COO, respectively, would you hire them? Would you trust them with your investment?
    IMO, TH has done more good than bad... Hell, Q4 he even returned a profit. Last Quarter, if it wasn't for the Venezuela fiasco, they would have been close to projections.

    Demand has been much better than expected...

    Well, you have to figure out the context of this quote. There was no demand for BB for literally the last couple years for the most part, so to see now, the phones selling a few million, that seems like a decent amount of demand to me.
    Shanerredflag, rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    07-19-13 09:55 PM
  12. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    YOLO, for better or worse is a foreign concept to me. I've studied, worked, and saved for almost three decades since high school saving a couple million dollars (paper earnings so who knows?) during that time. You don't have to envy me. I take about a week of vacation per year, have never flown anything other than coach, and bought my first car with leather seats a few years ago. I've never been to Japan nor anywhere near there. Most of my clothes and my food come from Costco.

    Like some here, I invest in mostly index funds and allocate less than 5% of my portfolio to play with individual stocks. I don't think my track record is very good with them. 2009 wasn't too much fun as most investors saw multiple years of income vanish. Fortunately, I was young enough that I didn't panic.

    People who retired into that market took a significant hit in lifestyle or went back to work. It's one thing to have everything you've ever earned in the stock market but another thing, entirely, to have everything you will ever earn in it. I envy those who have youth on their side.

    I guess my message is that if you're really a long term investor, what goes on here with BBRY shouldn't matter too much. This is trading.
    Nice read, thanks! If this investment doesn't work out to well for me, well I'll go back to being conservative and spending money wisely.

    I want to hit the jackpot while young, hah! Maybe there is still hope. User Gohan BCC is a few years older than me and he already has millions (or so he claims), I want to catch up lol. I wonder if he still lurks these boards after selling... hrmm.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    07-19-13 09:59 PM
  13. sparkaction's Avatar
    Fyi. Fairfax Financial reports it's Q2 2013 results on August 1. I'm asking that Prem has not disposed of his shares of bbry because he is still on the company's board. Although he could have reduced his interest. Aug1 will be highly watched day.

    http://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-rel...3/default.aspx
    07-19-13 10:03 PM
  14. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    The anti BlackBerry trolls are on every BlackBerry website be it fan site or investment sites all posting non stop 24/7 trying to get people to sell their shares. I have never seen anything like it before. Short interest numbers should be interesting. Without a doubt a vested interest is going all out to bash ,tarnish ,defame and spread misinformation. It's really something.

    Posted via CB10
    kfh227, Kid Vibe, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    07-19-13 10:40 PM
  15. kfh227's Avatar
    Fyi. Fairfax Financial reports it's Q2 2013 results on August 1. I'm asking that Prem has not disposed of his shares of bbry because he is still on the company's board. Although he could have reduced his interest. Aug1 will be highly watched day.

    Fairfax - Fairfax Announces Conference Call
    There is a grace period. FFX has several weeks (I think) to file the 13 F.
    07-19-13 11:00 PM
  16. slipstream89's Avatar
    im assuming theres nothing we can do as shareholders to get our voice heard again so BB can help revitalize shareholder value?
    07-19-13 11:21 PM
  17. kadakn01's Avatar
    Warren Buffett: A diversification skeptic declares, “Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully.” Alternatively, Buffett says, “Diversification is protection against ignorance" He once put 65% of his net worth in Geico, cloning Grahm at the time.



    Look at Prem's returns the past 2 decades, as he has handily beat the market by a wide margin. Go to gurufocus and look up Prem watsa, his 25 year return is 7 times the S&P 500. His 5 year is 80% vs. 8% for the S&P. Who else would you want to clone? Mohnish Pabrai has made his fortune (about 60M) by cloning value managers.

    Volatility is not risk, as risk is defined as permanent loss of capital. The famous quote "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." Eventually though all investments go back to fair value. Let's look at DELL as an example. Southeastern, another value manager bought at a cost basis of over $17 or so, and when the stock went below $9 no one wanted to touch the company. Under $9, the risk was very low, and while there was never any guarantee of making a killing, instead there was a large margin of safety with a huge cash position even with the repatriation of funds. Cloning works even better when your cost basis is lower than the guru investors.
    It just takes averaging down (buying) and averaging up (selling) (sell high, buy low).
    07-19-13 11:25 PM
  18. plane6065's Avatar
    Yea, I hope to work in Tokyo for a year or so one day in the future. Probably be within the next couple years as I can apply for a working holiday visa before I'm 30. Would love to get the language down packed too! Hell, maybe one day, if BB becomes successful we will see them over there again! I saw a few BB's but mostly expats doing business...
    That's awsome kid. I am sure you will do great there. My co workers step son is living outside of Tokyo for about 10 years. He loves it there.

    You can probably get a teaching over there, but if have post secondary education you definitely can get job.

    As you said, hopefully BlackBerry can succeed and sell their phone there - or at least they partner with a company there.

    Good luck kid! I have most of my shares as well. It's been tough 4 weeks. BlackBerry themselves haven't released any good news for a while, let's hope for some soon.


    Posted via CB10
    Kid Vibe likes this.
    07-20-13 12:55 AM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Look at this Twitter feed heatmap: Twitter + GNIP
    Blackberry seems to be concentrated on midtown NYC in NY area interestingly. If you zoom out for a world view, then it is nice to see how dominating Blackberry is in Latin America, Asia, and some European countries.
    Aaaaaannnnd: This is Paris, France !
    Have a nice weekend guys; guitars, voices and mixing today !
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png  
    07-20-13 02:56 AM
  20. Komoto's Avatar
    Lots of negativity here.

    Remember guys shut out the noise, look at what is really going on.

    It's a long term play we always knew it. We all got caught up in pre-ER hype.

    As we said from the beginning it is highly risky and volatile.

    To all the negative naysayers that just turned up out of the blue, I haven't seen any of you make any well reasoned arguments for your stance on why we should sell.

    All I see are outlandish statements, like this babies going to zero!

    You mind giving me an insight into what model you are using and how you have come to your conclusion?

    Personally it looks like the floor here is 6 dollars based on cash position. Upside is potentially huge, why would you sell now?


    Posted via CB10
    07-20-13 07:25 AM
  21. YangFui's Avatar
    Warren Buffett: A diversification skeptic declares, Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully. Alternatively, Buffett says, Diversification is protection against ignorance" He once put 65% of his net worth in Geico, cloning Grahm at the time.



    Look at Prem's returns the past 2 decades, as he has handily beat the market by a wide margin. Go to gurufocus and look up Prem watsa, his 25 year return is 7 times the S&P 500. His 5 year is 80% vs. 8% for the S&P. Who else would you want to clone? Mohnish Pabrai has made his fortune (about 60M) by cloning value managers.

    Volatility is not risk, as risk is defined as permanent loss of capital. The famous quote "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." Eventually though all investments go back to fair value. Let's look at DELL as an example. Southeastern, another value manager bought at a cost basis of over $17 or so, and when the stock went below $9 no one wanted to touch the company. Under $9, the risk was very low, and while there was never any guarantee of making a killing, instead there was a large margin of safety with a huge cash position even with the repatriation of funds. Cloning works even better when your cost basis is lower than the guru investors.
    It just takes averaging down (buying) and averaging up (selling) (sell high, buy low).
    This is not a personal attack, but may I respectfully ask how you acquired your knowledge in investing? The lack of investment understanding demonstrated by your post is disturbing enough that I felt compelled to intervene, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time trying to police this thread from future posts that convey misinformation--I just don't have the time.

    Let me be blunt: It's academically irresponsible to post on this forum with an air of authority while getting the basics wrong. You wrote that "risk is defined as permanent loss of capital". I would like you to cite your source for this wrong definition. In reality, risk is the potential for permanent loss of capital.

    I then took a good look at the gurufocus site you cited (Prem's results are in a table below a chart called "Total Holding History" here: Prem Watsa Stock Holdings, Investment Philosophies and News -- GuruFocus.com ). You forgot to mention that Prem lost to the S&P during 8 of the past 20 years. If you had "followed" Prem during 2005, you would have sustained a loss of 18%--that, my friend, would have been a permanent loss of capital. Prem hasn't been able to beat the S&P in 2010, 2011, or 2012--that doesn't impress me at all. If anyone wants to experience the returns you cite then that person would have to exactly mirror Prem's trades--not everyone has the wherewithal to invest that way. So while the numbers might appear alluring to a beginner investor, anyone trying to cherry-pick which years or months to "follow" Prem would be doing so at their own peril. The fact that Prem's last three years didn't beat the S&P makes it really easy for me to beautifully demonstrate my point to everyone here that past performance does not, cannot, and will not predict future results.

    Moving on to DELL: It's not wise to find a single example (DELL, in your case) and use that as a basis for one's investing philosophy. There is something to be said for sample size, and your sample size is 1. Even if you increase your sample size, for every example you can cite where averaging-down and averaging-up might have worked, there are just as many other examples where it would not have worked.

    Finally, you stated that volatility is not risk. True, they're different words and they have different meanings. But when you truly understand the definitions for each you will then appreciate that volatility confers risk.

    Thank you in advance for reading...
    07-20-13 07:41 AM
  22. Aham1984's Avatar
    07-20-13 07:52 AM
  23. notfanboy's Avatar
    This is not a personal attack, but may I respectfully ask how you acquired your knowledge in investing? The lack of investment understanding demonstrated by your post is disturbing enough that I felt compelled to intervene, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time trying to police this thread from future posts that convey misinformation--I just don't have the time.

    Let me be blunt: It's academically irresponsible to post on this forum with an air of authority while getting the basics wrong. You wrote that "risk is defined as permanent loss of capital". I would like you to cite your source for this wrong definition. In reality, risk is the potential for permanent loss of capital.
    Excellent points, and thanks for posting that. In reading your posts I have found you to be quite informed and just as important, to have a questioning and analytical frame of mind. I respect that. I consider myself a skeptic and always like to question even commonly held beliefs.

    I also agree with the part up there that I bolded, however I find it odd that you hold this forum (and specially this thread) to that standard. On a daily bases, I read many things in here that cause me to shake my head, not because of the "fanboyism" which is expected in a fan forum, but because it is happening in a thread where investment advice is being given and the goal is to make money. There are a couple of examples I listed in the following post, which I'll just link to here: http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...ml#post8853923 I'd be to hear your thoughts on those two things I brought up.
    YangFui likes this.
    07-20-13 08:03 AM
  24. cgk's Avatar
    I'll chime in...

    The stock is absolutely targeted...I am not going to say by competitors as I can not prove that but hedges and swing traders love this thing. The volume of trades each day and the ease at which some negative news will move the price are a money tree dream.


    As for the TA...allot of people are being exposed to and learning allot on this thread from some very bright people...the least of which is that it's an indicator of likely events, not gospel. Good people with good intentions helping others...that is why this thread is successful.




    Posted via CB10

    Edit...to be clear one of the TA guru's called a potential for this drop two months ago...so not all up up up as some would believe.
    Gospel is a good way to describe it, a load of new comers might think that TA is a sure thing rather than a highly contested pseudo-science. I have a month off and if I can work up the energy might have a look and see if I can track the accuracy of some of the claims made here.
    07-20-13 08:46 AM
  25. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    Excellent points, and thanks for posting that. In reading your posts I have found you to be quite informed and just as important, to have a questioning and analytical frame of mind. I respect that. I consider myself a skeptic and always like to question even commonly held beliefs.

    I also agree with the part up there that I bolded, however I find it odd that you hold this forum (and specially this thread) to that standard. On a daily bases, I read many things in here that cause me to shake my head, not because of the "fanboyism" which is expected in a fan forum, but because it is happening in a thread where investment advice is being given and the goal is to make money. There are a couple of examples I listed in the following post, which I'll just link to here: http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...ml#post8853923 I'd be to hear your thoughts on those two things I brought up.
    Advice is not supposed to be given on this forum, the first page states that. We all have opinions and why we think BB will do well, but telling others how to spend is a no no.
    07-20-13 08:46 AM
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