View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. bigbadben10's Avatar
    With duell due r

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-19-13 07:04 PM
  2. bigbadben10's Avatar
    ****. Respect. When it gets tough I like to see who stays the course.

    A lil mashed here lol

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-19-13 07:06 PM
  3. sparkaction's Avatar
    So what ever became of Charles?? Have not seen or heard from him since 6/28

    Posted via CB10
    A lot of people (maybe Charles too) in this forum are disguised with bbry management and the death grip of the shorts. Prior to June 28, there was an element of hope that this company could turn things around. No one was prepared to let their shares go for less than $xxxx, now I think there are a lot of individuals who would be happy just to receive back their invested capital.

    Wall Street is there to make money at any cost and unfortunately us longs have on paper increased the bankrolls of certain short term traders. I'm just hoping management gives us a lifeline soon with a positive announcement of any kind.
    07-19-13 07:06 PM
  4. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I see...I'm still confident and stand by my original homework on this play.

    Must admit I kind of got caught up I'm the hype prior to the last ER but originally (and I have said it here many times) thought Q3 or 4 this year should give an idea of where this thing is going. Until then there just isn't enough data imo.
    bungaboy, rarsen and sidhuk like this.
    07-19-13 07:07 PM
  5. sparkaction's Avatar
    Just to play devils advocate. Bbry can go bankrupt if cash flow in is less than cash flow out. This will take a few years given bbry's cash position but it is possible.
    07-19-13 07:17 PM
  6. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Yes sir...

    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 07:21 PM
  7. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    And they were preaching buy buy buy from every news source when Apple was at 700.00.

    Winds of change blow pretty quick and they do change direction, one can never know for certain

    Posted via CB10
    sparkaction and bungaboy like this.
    07-19-13 07:25 PM
  8. bigbadben10's Avatar
    I see...I'm still confident and stand by my original homework on this play.

    Must admit I kind of got caught up I'm the hype prior to the last ER but originally (and I have said it here many times) thought Q3 or 4 this year should give an idea of where this thing is going. Until then there just isn't enough data imo.
    We all did bro. It's all good as we are all still here holding the flag!

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    07-19-13 07:44 PM
  9. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    So what ever became of Charles?? Have not seen or heard from him since 6/28

    Posted via CB10
    Yea, hope he is doing OK. I wonder if he threw in the towel.
    07-19-13 07:51 PM
  10. leafs123's Avatar
    Charles sold all of his holdings in BBRY I believe.

    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 07:57 PM
  11. leafs123's Avatar
    Just a question for any that might know...if Prem is a board member, is he privy to more information than others? How does that affect his buying, is that insider info?

    Just curious.

    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 07:59 PM
  12. notfanboy's Avatar
    If Prem/Fairfax has over $800 mil invested in this company and he is not worried, why should anyone else be? He is owning exactly 10% of the company regardless whether the stock is trading at $18 or $9.
    Who's to say he's not worried? Let's face it, Prem Watsa gambled with BBRY and lost badly. I can't imagine that Prem would be anything but disgusted with the whole situation.

    From the time that he doubled down on RIMM last year, BBRY has lost 47% of its value. And this -47% actually looks good when compared to Prem's holdings before he doubled down.

    But, some might way, he hasn't lost any money, it's just a paper loss! This is nonsense because of something called opportunity cost. His $800 million could have been put to use somewhere else earning real returns. During the same time period where BBRY lost 47% (376mm loss), the NASDAQ gained 29% (232mm profit). That's a swing of $600 million!

    • He let his friendship with Heins affect his judgment and this sort of realization is very hard to swallow for hard-nosed investors.
    • He got badly outplayed by the "shorts".
    • Most posters in this thread, the majority of whom amateur investors, are doing better that Prem with regards this particular stock.
    • Novices who follow Suze Orman (or Dave Ramsey) and invests in index funds would have done much better than Prem
    • Anyone could pick up BBRY stock today and they'd instantly be doing better than Prem


    How could Prem or a Fairfax investor possibly be happy with any of this?
    07-19-13 08:01 PM
  13. YangFui's Avatar
    Don't take this personally, but I was very irritated by your post even though I am long BBRY. Being long BBRY doesn't give any of us a license to throw logic out the window. An opposing point of view might not be one we want to hear, but let's be smart and not dismiss valid arguments--however distasteful--with specious reasoning and logical fallacy.

    If Prem/Fairfax has over $800 mil invested in this company and he is not worried, why should anyone else be? He is owning exactly 10% of the company regardless whether the stock is trading at $18 or $9.
    My first question would be: How can you or we know if Prem is or is not "worried"? Do you have a special relationship with him? Did he reveal his innermost feelings to you during some sort of tte--tte?

    My second question would be: Whether or not Prem truly is or truly is not worried, what does that have to do with the future of BBRY? Do you seriously believe that Prem's degree of worry is a valid way to assess the future prospects of BBRY as a company and as a stock? So what if he owns "10%" of the company--this would not endow him with any special ability to predict the success of his investment. Don't you know that some investors--even really wealthy ones--make bad investments? Do you seriously believe that if Prem isn't worried then you should or shouldn't be???

    Of course if one truly believes in manipulations, they bring it down in order to buy not to sell.
    I'm not even sure what you're saying here: You do realize that shorts have to buy-to-cover, don't you? Your argument is written so as to suggest that the stock gets manipulated downward so that those doing the manipulating can buy-and-hold and ride the stock as it goes up. When shorts buy, they're out; when they buy and the stock has since dropped, they're out with a profit (less commissions).

    In contrast BBRY has absolutely no debt and over $3b in cash alone.
    Just because BBRY has "absolutely" no debt doesn't mean that it won't have debt. Just because BBRY has "$3b in cash alone" doesn't mean that it will continue to have this cash.

    I plan on buying more shares for every 50 cents drop in the sp. My next buy would be at around $8.50 if it gets there. If it goes down to $6 (again), I'm all in.
    This could be a good strategy, and I hope it works for you and anyone else who follows it. I, for the record, am not a fan of buying into downtrending stocks. You can always fall into the value trap:

    Value Trap Definition | Investopedia

    For instance, a month ago, we all would agree that $12 was dirt cheap for BBRY. Now, just weeks later, we are talking about $8, $7, and now $6... While I don't think it will get there, someone is going to think it looks pretty cheap at $5, or $3, or $1, or $0.50. When does it not become cheap but just a really bad investment?

    If you are making an investment in BBRY as a new investor then these prices are indeed very attractive and might represent a truly fantastic buying opportunity. But let's not get carried away here: If you're holding realized or unrealized losses, I think you owe it to yourself to consider safer investments elsewhere and not fall for the value-trap argument. If you believe in BBRY, as I do, then just wait this out. Thankfully, BBRY is not the only company stock that's traded--new investors here probably should be reminded of that. You can still love BlackBerry and support its products but it doesn't mean you have to keep investing in the stock--especially if you've not yet yielded a positive ROI at some point since initiating your position. I guess my main point is that there are certainly people on this forum who have experienced only losses in BBRY--I really don't think it's a good idea for those investors to continue investing in BBRY at this time.

    I want to be clear that the purpose of this post is not to express negative sentiment against BlackBerry or the BBRY stock--but to express negative sentiment against poor logic.

    For the record: I am long BBRY shares because I feel it will rebound--and, if and when it does--the rebound will yield a very high ROI for me. For investors like me, that rebound will have made BBRY a good investment; I don't feel the need to make it an even better investment by introducing additional risk by buying more stock at these prices.

    I felt compelled to post this because I sometimes get the feeling that some contributors here feel pressure to continue to invest in BBRY in order to show their continued support for the company--and to share that show-of-support with the community here.

    A viable alternative is to be long and strong, like me, and just simply hold and wait.
    07-19-13 08:02 PM
  14. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Prem W thinks LONG.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy, peter9477 and rarsen like this.
    07-19-13 08:03 PM
  15. Gekko's Avatar
    Groupthink

    Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an incorrect or deviant decision-making outcome. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative ideas or viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences.

    Loyalty to the group requires individuals to avoid raising controversial issues or alternative solutions, and there is loss of individual creativity, uniqueness and independent thinking. The dysfunctional group dynamics of the "ingroup" produces an "illusion of invulnerability" (an inflated certainty that the right decision has been made). Thus the "ingroup" significantly overrates their own abilities in decision-making, and significantly underrates the abilities of their opponents (the "outgroup").

    Antecedent factors such as group cohesiveness, faulty group structure, and situational context (e.g., community panic) play into the likelihood of whether or not groupthink will impact the decision-making process.

    Groupthink is a construct of social psychology, but has an extensive reach and influences literature in the fields of communication studies, political science, management, and organizational theory,[1] as well as important aspects of deviant religious cult behaviour.[2]

    Groupthink - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Kid Vibe, gg22 and YangFui like this.
    07-19-13 08:06 PM
  16. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    Notanormalboy you sure spend a lot of time trying to convince people to sell and bash BlackBerry. I know a few traders that covered and looking to buy a bunch of BBRY shares if shorts are willing to short BBRY to $8.50. With $6 in cash alone go ahead and short BBRY. Question why are you here justaweirdboy? You think your posts will get anyone here to throw their shares away? No need to answer I don't care. It would be great if I had the ignore option. I don't use my pc much after I got my z10. Pc is just to slow.

    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 08:08 PM
  17. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Oh no he is back here. Where will he end up??? Too funny.

    Posted via CB10
    07-19-13 08:13 PM
  18. bigbbrybeliever's Avatar
    The $900 million write-down by Microsoft on its surface tablet vindicates the rightness of Hein's vision on the tablet market.
    sparkaction and rarsen like this.
    07-19-13 08:17 PM
  19. Gekko's Avatar
    The $900 million write-down by Microsoft on its surface tablet vindicates the rightness of Hein's vision on the tablet market.
    oh yeah that Heins is a genius! that's who you want running the ship!

    Pie charts of the day: Tablet sales grew 140% year over year - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech
    barnfoot likes this.
    07-19-13 08:23 PM
  20. Kris Erickson's Avatar
    cut your losses this dog is going to zero.
    Pessimism is a state of mind in which one anticipates undesirable outcomes or believes that the evil or hardships in life outweigh the good or luxuries - Wikipedia

    When you make stmts like that, it implies that in the very near future BB will burn through 3 Billion of cash on hand PLUS all profits that they will make in the current quarter. Then come the next ER they will disclose that they are broke and closing and this will then drive the price to 0..

    Yes I sunk just over 15k into this company playing the long hand that maybe they get to $50 and I can clear my mortgage with this. I think everyone here is not suffering from group think. We all want the company to do well, we all can't understand how by just missing expected sales and a small loss of income can this translate to a $9 valuation . Seriously, were back to 2011 prices where the company had no new phones and was living off 07 legacy devices.

    I do believe that everyone here is willing to sell and take whatever loss we need if the company does indeed say they are closing up. But next quarter ER will give us a better indication of whats going on.
    07-19-13 08:25 PM
  21. leafs123's Avatar
    oh yeah that Heins is a genius! that's who you want running the ship!

    Pie charts of the day: Tablet sales grew 140% year over year - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech
    Without getting too much off topic, there's no tablet market. It's an iPad market, then the rest. How many Android tablets do you see succeeding? Not many. Maybe the Nexus 7 because of the price point.

    Posted via CB10
    fedakd likes this.
    07-19-13 08:26 PM
  22. notfanboy's Avatar
    Prem W thinks LONG.
    But Fairfax reports quarterly.

    The $900 million write-down by Microsoft on its surface tablet vindicates the rightness of Hein's vision on the tablet market.
    I advise against making a generalization based on one device. Instead look at the entire tablet market. According to an IDC report, tablet sales grew 78.4% YoY In 2012.

    Techcrunch summarized the report here: IDC: Tablet Sales Grew 78.4% YoY In 2012 — Expected To Pass Desktop Sales In 2013, Portable PCs In 2014 | TechCrunch

    Given the explosive growth of the tablet market, it's no wonder that Heins was roundly ridiculed in the press for his comment.
    07-19-13 08:26 PM
  23. notfanboy's Avatar
    Without getting too much off topic, there's no tablet market. It's an iPad market, then the rest. How many Android tablets do you see succeeding? Not many. Maybe the Nexus 7 because of the price point.
    Not supported by data. Excerpted from an IDC report from May this year. Android Ahead Of iOS Tablet Market Share - Business Insider

    Highlights:
    Android OS is now ahead of iPads in overall marketshare
    Apple is still the number one vendor with 40%, but Samsung is also there with 18%

    Take a look at the tables, they are quite interesting.
    07-19-13 08:29 PM
  24. bigbadben10's Avatar
    Wow still going. Bedtime soon!

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag and Bugmapper like this.
    07-19-13 08:30 PM
  25. Gekko's Avatar
    Pessimism is a state of mind in which one anticipates undesirable outcomes or believes that the evil or hardships in life outweigh the good or luxuries - Wikipedia

    When you make stmts like that, it implies that in the very near future BB will burn through 3 Billion of cash on hand PLUS all profits that they will make in the current quarter. Then come the next ER they will disclose that they are broke and closing and this will then drive the price to 0..

    Yes I sunk just over 15k into this company playing the long hand that maybe they get to $50 and I can clear my mortgage with this. I think everyone here is not suffering from group think. We all want the company to do well, we all can't understand how by just missing expected sales and a small loss of income can this translate to a $9 valuation . Seriously, were back to 2011 prices where the company had no new phones and was living off 07 legacy devices.

    I do believe that everyone here is willing to sell and take whatever loss we need if the company does indeed say they are closing up. But next quarter ER will give us a better indication of whats going on.
    i don't want you to lose your hard earned money. you are speculating (gambling) so i hope that you are only playing with money that you can afford to lose. personally, i only invest in low cost index funds (S&P 500) for the long term. i don't speculate on individual stocks because i think it's a fool's game. good luck.

    "There's no reason to think any sector-specific information you have is value relevant. If you know it, so does Goldman and Morgan Stanley and it's likely already baked into the price." – Larry Swedroe

    "Being familiar with a company leads investors to believe they have what might be called "value-relevant" information, when almost certainly what they know is well-known by the "market" and is already incorporated into prices." – Larry Swedroe

    "That's a pattern we see all the time. Whether you're an expert or not, it's human nature to imagine that you have some unique insight into the market, something that's eluded everyone else." – Gus Sauter

    "Beware of acting on insights of the market that you think are yours alone. Millions of investors are likely to know something that you believe you are discovering." – John Bogle
    Last edited by Gekko; 07-19-13 at 08:56 PM.
    YangFui likes this.
    07-19-13 08:34 PM
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