View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. robot_ca's Avatar
    Thanks Superfly! Merci.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 02:23 PM
  2. dusdal's Avatar
    Unfortunately the netshare site requires an account to get country specific stats. $300 per month.

    Nice to have another data point to support things in June though!
    07-01-13 02:24 PM
  3. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    You brought up Kantar first earlier in the day - this was after your original posts...
    Yes, an independent data source which is much more reliable clearly than Statcounter.
    mikeo007 likes this.
    07-01-13 02:24 PM
  4. plane6065's Avatar
    It's a tricky situation, most analysts became "wrong" because they kept raising their handset targets for Q1 without regard for the 12 month price target of the stock. We saw this time and again, the bearish analysts would concede that BlackBerry likely sold more phones in the quarter, but they didn't bother to raise their targets for the stock. Kind of like saying "we believe they probably sold far more phones but we prefer to hold onto our short position anyway". It worked out fine for them as everyone was caught off guard by the numbers and EVERYONE forgot that guidance was not even given by the company re: handsets. All of this unit sales stuff was manufactured from the beginning. And so most of us who had no hard data to use to limit our expectations, went with the flow. If it were any other company, we would have expected the stock to fall 10% on this news. But this is BlackBerry, a company were you can make up expectations and then punish the company because they didn't fulfill your own numbers. I think anything below a 10% drop is likely margin call fishing today. The timing was perfect as Funds want to get the stock out of their accounts for window dressing purposes. Now we have extreme lows, much like in Sept. when we sat at $ 6.22 for a few hours and had 1/2 the cash and no products to take to market.

    In 2 months, BES10 could set the stage for a monster rally when it becomes clear the business is ready to order more phones and security than teenagers ever could. We'll have fresh new shareholders by then, and probably some real surprises as we have seen a monster volume of over 150,000,000 shares trades in NA on Friday.

    Today we are watching margin calls flow in, and base building, while the last of the analyst adjustments take place. Next week we get the AGM and we have to look forward to BES10 going forward. Personally, I would like it if we can quietly burn off some time without the media to bother us any more. The stock can base out and drift around and let the company get its footing again. We will forget this in the months ahead and certainly if BES 10 looks like it is drawing money from Enterprise. Then the cycle of life repeats itself.
    Thank you Morgan plus8, your insight along with many others have help a lot of who believe that Q1 would bring much better results. Instead, we are being tested to stay long and continue belief the direction of the company.

    With this bad Q1 result and negative sentiment, we still need positive news like DOD contract, licensing agreement and Q10 sales update. I remember talk that Q10 sales would sell 3:1 over the Z 10, and it's the phone most BlackBerry users would want. Let's hear some good news or at least some PR.

    My IT friend where I work (large crown corporation) has indicated to me that will upgrade to Z10 and Q10 now, and people are waiting to order. The issue is upgrading from BES7 to 10, the cost is $300k.

    Btw I love my Z10!

    Posted via CB10
    jxnb, dusdal, morganplus8 and 6 others like this.
    07-01-13 02:25 PM
  5. OMGitworks's Avatar
    My random thoughts in no particular order.

    Don't argue over stat counter or any other nonsense metric. Worry about how many phones they sell and so far its not enough. Trying to extrapolate from those stats might be interesting but it really has zero value.

    They need instagram, Netflix and the rest, almost at all costs. BBM and Channels ain't gonna cut it. It really is simple, you can't explain or excuse it away.

    The OS is good, but its not earth shattering. QNX is stable and perhaps secure but nobody cares yet.

    BBRY has to start realizing what matters and tick some of those boxes or they truly are done. The market has spoken for the last 2-3 years and BBRY is suffering.

    Its too late to TH to go. Let's keep him. They are not getting voted out. Prem Watsa needs to get in a board meeting and shake them up. They knew how bad they were doing and did nothing!!! While it is nice to have cash, my gut tells me they should have gone all out and spent some of that cash to get some results. It seems like the Board and Watsa are just fiddling as BBRY burns. Spend some money to get the apps . This leads me to my last point....

    Perception is about to become reality and the consumer market, at least in the US will be gone forever. People think and Wall St is confirming that BBRY is a thing of the past or will be so marginalized that it won't matter to shareholders.
    07-01-13 02:26 PM
  6. dusdal's Avatar
    Yes, an independent data source which is much more reliable clearly than Statcounter.
    How is Kantar more independent than Statcounter?

    Edit: and netshare?
    Last edited by dusdal; 07-01-13 at 02:41 PM.
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-01-13 02:29 PM
  7. dusdal's Avatar
    My random thoughts in no particular order.

    Don't argue over stat counter or any other nonsense metric. Worry about how many phones they sell and so far its not enough. Trying to extrapolate from those stats might be interesting but it really has zero value.

    They need instagram, Netflix and the rest, almost at all costs. BBM and Channels ain't gonna cut it. It really is simple, you can't explain or excuse it away.

    The OS is good, but its not earth shattering. QNX is stable and perhaps secure but nobody cares yet.

    BBRY has to start realizing what matters and tick some of those boxes or they truly are done. The market has spoken for the last 2-3 years and BBRY is suffering.

    Its too late to TH to go. Let's keep him. They are not getting voted out. Prem Watsa needs to get in a board meeting and shake them up. They knew how bad they were doing and did nothing!!! While it is nice to have cash, my gut tells me they should have gone all out and spent some of that cash to get some results. It seems like the Board and Watsa are just fiddling as BBRY burns. Spend some money to get the apps . This leads me to my last point....

    Perception is about to become reality and the consumer market, at least in the US will be gone forever. People think and Wall St is confirming that BBRY is a thing of the past or will be so marginalized that it won't matter to shareholders.
    If we don't use what data is available to us, then we are just guessing.

    I agree they need to make the best of their cash. It appears they have paid off Global Statcounter and now also Netshare

    Hopefully they can line Kantar's pockets as well so when their June data comes out it looks good.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 02:34 PM
  8. JLagoon's Avatar
    Man, when will the shorts cover? Are they waiting to make their own fireworks on July 4th? If they cover, then the sp goes up, probably back to $15 (just guessing). They make money, and long is in a better position.
    07-01-13 02:38 PM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    I just mentioned this in the bbm group.

    I am sitting at a coffeehouse with my Z10. I just zipped a folder containing some media to reduce the size and then copy and pasted it onto my PC at home. All without any third party apps and from my comfy seat in front of a delicious latte.

    Beautiful.
    07-01-13 02:40 PM
  10. plane6065's Avatar
    Man, when will the shorts cover? Are they waiting to make their own fireworks on July 4th? If they cover, then the sp goes up, probably back to $15 (just guessing). They make money, and long is in a better position.
    Well, after the surprising ER I would say they are taking their time. Unless there are outstanding news like licensing agreement, huge sales order, BES sales, or an actual Carl Icahn bid we won't see a cover just yet. In other word, we need a fuel to ignite BlackBerry stock price. Though?

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 02:44 PM
  11. morganplus8's Avatar
    Thank you Morgan plus8, your insight along with many others have help a lot of who believe that Q1 would bring much better results. Instead, we are being tested to stay long and continue belief the direction of the company.

    With this bad Q1 result and negative sentiment, we still need positive news like DOD contract, licensing agreement and Q10 sales update. I remember talk that Q10 sales would sell 3:1 over the Z 10, and it's the phone most BlackBerry users would want. Let's hear some good news or at least some PR.

    My IT friend where I work (large crown corporation) has indicated to me that will upgrade to Z10 and Q10 now, and people are waiting to order. The issue is upgrading from BES7 to 10, the cost is $300k.

    Btw I love my Z10!

    Posted via CB10

    Thanks plane6065!!

    Nice to hear from you! You just reminded me of that comment that Heins made about Z10/Q10 sales ratios, I forgot that. I still salute BlackBerry for managing their cash so well, I'm not a fan of Heins because in my world this nonsense would be crushed in minutes and everyone would be getting information that wouldn't allow the shorts to push the company around. Heins has zero reactive skills.

    My lawyer friend works on large M&A deals, he is on his game and very good at what he does. Their firm adopted BES 10 and handed out plenty of Q10/Z10 phones and he says they love them. He looks at messages 100's of times during the day and a quick "slide and peek" is worth its weight in gold for him. The response was far more than an "okay phone for business", they love them and that's the best word of mouth you can get.

    The other point you made was regarding the DoD. I read that announcement re: the award of MDM and MAS for non-secure phones and it leaves this vast hole of opportunity for BB. The secure side will look different, this is for an app store environment and how can anyone who has used (forced to use) a BlackBerry phone (all 471,000 of them) not want a Z10 or Q10 with all features left "on"? It is beyond me who would want a locked out Android or a stripped down old iOS 6.0 phone when you can have it all. BlackBerry just needs to get the message out there that their phone is a phone at the DoD and not a paper weight. I like where DoD can still go with BlackBerry.

    Welcome aboard!
    dusdal, _dimi_, Korepab and 5 others like this.
    07-01-13 02:48 PM
  12. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    How is Kantar more independent than Statcounter?

    Edit: and netshare?
    Not less independent, just more reliable. There is some very weird things going on with statcounter data these days.
    mikeo007 likes this.
    07-01-13 02:50 PM
  13. morganplus8's Avatar
    Well, after the surprising ER I would say they are taking their time. Unless there are outstanding news like licensing agreement, huge sales order, BES sales, or an actual Carl Icahn bid we won't see a cover just yet. In other word, we need a fuel to ignite BlackBerry stock price. Though?

    Posted via CB10
    I would like to hear that another "Prem" or the guy himself simply picked up those loose shares. The shorts wouldn't like if it they hesitated and he got hold of their cover! LOL
    07-01-13 02:51 PM
  14. greyw0lf01's Avatar
    You guys are strung out hard on BBRY. You love the device so you love the stock, what a recipe for disaster.

    The company declined to give sell through numbers and won’t be giving BBRY subscription numbers going forward. If you’re a public company, you shouldn’t be providing less transparency, but more. You want to keep secrets about performance, take the company private and be as sketchy as you want.

    There’s no reason to buy the stock now... let the next quarter play out, if it’s good, get back in when there is clear daylight, but not whether Kantar, Statcounter or anyone else shows a slight rise for BBRY’s mkt share.
    07-01-13 02:52 PM
  15. MrBurns2U's Avatar
    After taking a few days to digest the whole thing here is my 2 cents.

    I can totally understand the disappointment and anger that caused some of us to sell most if not all our stock and move on to greener pastures. I've been preaching the Blackberry sermon to everyone that would listen. I'm still being laughed at. After the ER call I was so down and confused as to how they could have been below expectations that I too thought of selling and moving on. To those who have nothing is wrong with that choice. This is a stock not for the conservative or faint of heart. Even for the bravest of us it will rock you to your core on some days.

    When you put aside the analyst reports and all the newspaper and internet articles which do provide bits of really good info the ultimate question is do you believe that Blackberry can survive this period. If you don't after that ER then it might be best to exit. I suspect more rough seas ahead and it's not impossible to see a drop into sub $10 even sub $9 territory. It's simple...people aren't buying BB10's at the rate required. Can this be fixed? I'm sure it can. Advertising SUCKS where Blackberry is concerned. 3/4 of the world is not aware of what BB10 is. That is the problem.

    As for the talk of short covering....why would you?? If your ultimate goal is to drive the SP into the ground why back off now you have it in a choke hold? Longs who thought they were strong are being proven to be just a tad bit weaker than they thought. We were so sure now some of us are left with a bit of lingering doubt. Turnarounds take time but Blackberry is in a market where as a player you don't have the luxury of time.

    On the calls for Heins to leave....He is not a Tony Robbins type speaker. He comes off as a bit goofy and nerdy. If he is doing his job of righting the wrongs then I can see past that. Problem is as a shareholder I'm here to make $. The share price performance since he has been in control hasn't at all impressed me. Who is to take the blame for that? I would think it rest on his shoulders. There is no way with all the weapons @ Blackberry that my SP should be flirting with $10. I have read comments about it's not his job to protect the stock price...that's BULL. Maybe the goal is to keep it trapped in a range as I have said before as there maybe a deal going on behind the curtain and our interest as regular Joe's is of no consequence because it will soon come to light.

    It's too much of a guessing game Thor. Step on the gas please.

    "I'm so long I can wait" for me has been revised to "I'd like to stay long, show me the $$ "

    It's wise to constantly assess your investment in my opinion. At the end of the day....We are here for the $$
    07-01-13 03:06 PM
  16. morganplus8's Avatar
    You guys are strung out hard on BBRY. You love the device so you love the stock, what a recipe for disaster.

    The company declined to give sell through numbers and won’t be giving BBRY subscription numbers going forward. If you’re a public company, you shouldn’t be providing less transparency, but more. You want to keep secrets about performance, take the company private and be as sketchy as you want.

    There’s no reason to buy the stock now... let the next quarter play out, if it’s good, get back in when there is clear daylight, but not whether Kantar, Statcounter or anyone else shows a slight rise for BBRY’s mkt share.
    Sorry, no can do!! I don't think they should be providing anything more than their competition does now. What good is providing a "subs" figure, when hardly anyone since the Q1 report came out, got it right? I'm already tired of hearing half-baked reports on subs in the past few days.

    Secondly, when a company does a wholesale change in their customer base description, the simple method of a one line item "sub" makes no sense. If the company can add more "other" phones or products to its revenue base, why wouldn't you want them to report that? You want the old system to claim a partial victory for lower sub numbers and conveniently ignore the millions who come on board as "other" revenue sources. That won't help you explain the success the company is having and why you show go long the stock now.

    The best thing they can do is develop guidelines for the new method of explaining the increase in enterprise and software business. I don't care if I ever hear about a sub again, that's something that shorts dwell on isn't it? Shorts are famous for ignoring the plus or minus 1% plus nature of the sub total (quoting in rounded numbers of 1,000,000), and certainly, they leave out the fact that BB stopped counting all of the subs in Venezuela until the entire bill is paid in full. How convenient isn't it? No thanks.
    07-01-13 03:09 PM
  17. randall2580's Avatar
    It's a tricky situation, most analysts became "wrong" because they kept raising their handset targets for Q1 without regard for the 12 month price target of the stock. We saw this time and again, the bearish analysts would concede that BlackBerry likely sold more phones in the quarter, but they didn't bother to raise their targets for the stock. Kind of like saying "we believe they probably sold far more phones but we prefer to hold onto our short position anyway". It worked out fine for them as everyone was caught off guard by the numbers and EVERYONE forgot that guidance was not even given by the company re: handsets. All of this unit sales stuff was manufactured from the beginning. And so most of us who had no hard data to use to limit our expectations, went with the flow. If it were any other company, we would have expected the stock to fall 10% on this news. But this is BlackBerry, a company were you can make up expectations and then punish the company because they didn't fulfill your own numbers. I think anything below a 10% drop is likely margin call fishing today. The timing was perfect as Funds want to get the stock out of their accounts for window dressing purposes. Now we have extreme lows, much like in Sept. when we sat at $ 6.22 for a few hours and had 1/2 the cash and no products to take to market.

    In 2 months, BES10 could set the stage for a monster rally when it becomes clear the business is ready to order more phones and security than teenagers ever could. We'll have fresh new shareholders by then, and probably some real surprises as we have seen a monster volume of over 150,000,000 shares trades in NA on Friday.

    Today we are watching margin calls flow in, and base building, while the last of the analyst adjustments take place. Next week we get the AGM and we have to look forward to BES10 going forward. Personally, I would like it if we can quietly burn off some time without the media to bother us any more. The stock can base out and drift around and let the company get its footing again. We will forget this in the months ahead and certainly if BES 10 looks like it is drawing money from Enterprise. Then the cycle of life repeats itself.
    Hi Morgan. Have been stalking the thread again, curious to what's going on before, during and after the quarter announcement and as always I really enjoy the conversation here and wish the news had been better for all concerned, including BBRY.

    While I agree with what you have here, I don't believe it's all on the shoulders of the analysts - BBRY has some culpability in the matter. BBRY knew months ago this was going to be a long slog. The company has effectively stopped providing guidance, not only by actual word, but by what they refuse to say. I have felt all along this was a mistake, to allow the market to manage the news.

    BBRY could have been up front earlier with sales figures - I refuse to believe TH doesn't have that information at his beck and call at any given time and I can remember a few instances where they actually gave out some misleading information (not intentionally - but it ends up that way) .

    They continually said orders/sales were above their expectations but consistently refused to quantify what those expectations were. By continuing to fuel that story line they allowed the market to interpret that as they would. The bulls raising everyone's expectations based on statements that the phones were exceeding the company's sale expectations. Misek et al now have to admit they may have been mislead as to the prospect of sales, based on absolutely nothing that ever came from the company other than sales were higher than expected, based on what we know now in the end.

    I'm not sure I'm getting my point across, but in a nutshell I would say when you refuse to take control of the story because you are afraid of how the market will take the strong medicine, you run the risk the story gets completely away from you in the end and that's nobody's fault but TH, and in the end it plays out as you say and you wind up with a 25% drop instead of a 10% drop if the company had managed the story lines better.

    In terms of TA its going to be very interesting to see how BBRY responds in the next few days after this period of consolidation and what it does with that HUGE gap above now. Interesting as well to see if the more recent shorts covered at least, they had a nice few days trade and it's silly not to book at least some of that.
    _dimi_ likes this.
    07-01-13 03:10 PM
  18. morlock_man's Avatar
    This is a lot of hot air, but no real substance.

    TH said at the last ER to expect a near breakeven quarter. Which would have pretty much happened if not for Venezuela.

    The US did nothing to help sales. In fact, media outlets negative coverage basically amounted to a smear campaign. AT&T did nothing to help the launch either.

    Face it, every major media corporation in the US is in bed with their own tech companies. The thought of an outside entity taking a significant marketshare from their current platform dominance is terrifying.

    This is basically a cold war between the Canadian and US corporate system.

    Can't wait for September.
    07-01-13 03:20 PM
  19. WArcher's Avatar
    Call me a dreamer, a fanatic, a fool or whatever, I'm just buying some RIM shares right now.
    While I think it can't really hurt me and I may have a delicious surprise in,say, 5 years, I'm not doing this in a speculative vision, just a support action. As my savings are low, I'll not spend a lot, so maybe I'll buy only 5.
    I just added 250 more shares into the pile on Friday to bring it close to 6000 shares in the bucket. I am in this for the long haul.
    Every single Mobile device on the market, today, will have been replaced within two years (or yearly, if you're with Apple).
    It's not about the device - it's about everything else that BlackBerry have going for them. I am sure that the hardware will become less and less important as BlackBerry concentrates on their vision of a Mobile Computing Platform - of which the hardware is merely a "Computing Endpoint" as Thorsten Heins alluded to at BlackBerry world.

    CrackBerry people are, for the most part, early adopters and risk takers. They are not iLemmings or Robots. They seek differentiation and value. THAT is why we invest in what we believe in.
    07-01-13 03:22 PM
  20. Jahcure's Avatar
    As a long I'm holding until the holidays report. that will tell me all i need know about BlackBerry's recovery. if they cannot double sales during the holidays then it's truly over and time to go all software.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 03:30 PM
  21. greyw0lf01's Avatar
    I see, so transparency is suddenly a bad thing?

    A new operating system was launched, report how many devices were sold instead of saying how many were shipped which means nothing other than a future potential inventory write-down.

    What do you think will happen without insight into the company for 3 months... the steady drumbeat of negative stories so no matter how much you spend on advertising, the various teeeveee personalities, newspapers, websites and in store representatives will just harp on the Blackberry is dead meme...

    The company is in a tricky situation and is trying to turn things around. Reading some of the comments here, you’d think the hope for BBRY to return to former glory in mkt share and stock price is like waiting for the resurrection of Jesus. It’s a device made by a company that doesn’t know your name and doesn’t care about you.

    If you’re underwater on the trade, try and hedge any further downside risk. But you guys are cherry picking bits of data here and there as proof of a turnaround. Less transparency by a company is NEVER A GOOD THING, investors should run.

    Some crazed fanboy is going to see all this rosy bit of news, buy shares w/ all they have and get run over if earning are again weak. The lot of you who keep parroting that a loss isn’t a loss until you sell are NUTS and should never be allowed to post on message boards about investing... that **** is criminal & for all the talk of blackberry devices are for “adults” should be ashamed for not shouting down that kind of talk even louder.

    Friday was rough, lick your wounds, get past the downgrades, past the shareholder meeting (another potential downside event risk) and see how devices sell. No one should be flogging this... sell (and write off the losses from a tax perspective), sit tight (because your portfolio is diversified enough that one name won’t make or break your investment account) or hedge the downside risk... you know, prudent risk management.
    crackerdoodle and randall2580 like this.
    07-01-13 03:33 PM
  22. dusdal's Avatar
    @Supafly time for another thread disclosure statement?

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 03:35 PM
  23. randall2580's Avatar
    This is a lot of hot air, but no real substance.

    TH said at the last ER to expect a near breakeven quarter. Which would have pretty much happened if not for Venezuela.

    The US did nothing to help sales. In fact, media outlets negative coverage basically amounted to a smear campaign. AT&T did nothing to help the launch either.

    Face it, every major media corporation in the US is in bed with their own tech companies. The thought of an outside entity taking a significant marketshare from their current platform dominance is terrifying.

    This is basically a cold war between the Canadian and US corporate system.

    Can't wait for September.
    I do not disagree with your assertion about the USA but again is this chicken or the egg by now. BlackBerry has lost the hearts and minds of the American consumer if they were ever in it in the first place. To get it back they need to do everything the others do and fry eggs. They don't. The USA carriers aren't stupid they want to sell phones. Their research or their intuition or perhaps both tells them these phones won't do it. I will make a prediction right here right now. If you still have to side load to get the major applications to BB10 when A10 comes out, it too will be a flop in the USA.

    You and I will likely disagree about media companies and BlackBerry losing share here - we can agree to disagree aboat (sic)that. ;-)

    Where BlackBerry is really hurting is that they have, with BYOD been losing the heart and mind of the American businessman. On my trading desk is 2 iPhones and 2 Androids (Samsung), the back office is 100% Android. That's my small company. Nothing to do with anything but expectation of the experience.
    07-01-13 03:37 PM
  24. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hi Morgan.

    I'm not sure I'm getting my point across, but in a nutshell I would say when you refuse to take control of the story because you are afraid of how the market will take the strong medicine, you run the risk the story gets completely away from you in the end and that's nobody's fault but TH, and in the end it plays out as you say and you wind up with a 25% drop instead of a 10% drop if the company had managed the story lines better.

    In terms of TA its going to be very interesting to see how BBRY responds in the next few days after this period of consolidation and what it does with that HUGE gap above now. Interesting as well to see if the more recent shorts covered at least, they had a nice few days trade and it's silly not to book at least some of that.
    I agree with you, the launch of BlackBerry as a new brand, was a terrible failure and we should have known this when they fired their PR team of 16 years. All of this falls on Heins. Aside from this statement, I feel that BB did not announce how many phones they expected to sell, rather they talked about breakeven for Q1 and the analysts ran with this bit of information and made a monster out of it. In the end, the company didn't miss by much at all, you can't look at handsets because they were never mentioned, you have to look solely at "breakeven" and how you get there. They didn't pre-announce anything because they didn't have the data skewed until Venezuela decided not to pay, There went $ 72 million or almost $ .14/shr of revenue, or breakeven out the window. The only thing I don't like is being told that Q2 is breakeven/loss too! Now that hurts. I understand it is too difficult for them to do staggered launches around the world and try to factor in both revenues and EPS. Fine.

    As for the TA levels, that gap needs to be filled, the RSI is too low and the Bollinger Bands aren't outside the trading range of the stock. While I didn't produce a chart to suggest where we begin this leg of the rally, at 185,000,000 shares, we are close to a bottom here. Today we are back to weak volumes, the margin calls that are activated at 11:00AM, 2:00 PM and 3:00 PM are largely behind us now. So there is this rule that you don't buy into a change in the trend for 3 days. Tomorrow we should see the beginnings of a base made and the start of a technical bounce in the stock. I would like to see us close around $ 10.25/shr or higher today.
    07-01-13 03:37 PM
  25. dusdal's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00000740.png

    The Q1 ER group has morphed into the BBRY bbm group.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 03:44 PM
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